Core Viewpoint - The global capital market is experiencing a dual-track scenario, with the Nasdaq index showing structural resilience amid the AI wave, while the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a profound clearing process [1][14]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In early February 2026, the cryptocurrency market faced a significant downturn, with over $2.58 billion in liquidations within 48 hours and Bitcoin's price dropping below $76,000, a decline of over 41% from its historical peak [1][14]. - Historically, cryptocurrencies were viewed as a leveraged extension of the Nasdaq index, but this correlation has been broken, indicating a systemic separation of crypto assets from traditional risk assets [1][14]. - The volatility characteristics of cryptocurrencies are beginning to align more closely with those of gold and commodities, suggesting a reevaluation of their asset attributes [1][14]. Group 2: External and Internal Pressures - The immediate trigger for the market adjustment was a significant drop in international gold prices, which led to liquidity pressures in the cryptocurrency market during a period when traditional financial markets were closed [4][17]. - The structural change in asset correlation is noteworthy, as the Nasdaq index remained supported by the AI sector while the cryptocurrency market followed gold's downward trend, indicating a shift in how crypto assets are perceived [5][19]. Group 3: Institutional Vulnerabilities - The market's microstructure showed significant fragility, particularly due to the exposure of major institutions like BitMine and Trend Research, which held large ETH positions and faced substantial losses [6][20]. - A liquidity vacuum was created following the "1011 event" in October 2025, which damaged several market makers and reduced their capacity to support the market during downturns [6][20]. Group 4: Reassessment of Valuation - The market is reassessing the pricing factors of cryptocurrencies, particularly Ethereum, which had been overvalued based on deflationary expectations that are now diminishing due to reduced network activity and low gas fees [8][21]. - As Ethereum's technological premium is stripped away, Bitcoin is also facing a revaluation, moving towards a more macroeconomic hedge asset characteristic rather than a tech-driven asset [8][21]. Group 5: Transition to Infrastructure - The decline of the original narrative does not imply that blockchain technology has lost its significance; rather, it is being absorbed into the mainstream financial system as a tool for efficiency [9][22]. - The focus is shifting from asset creation to enhancing financial infrastructure, with Real World Assets (RWA) and stablecoins emerging as critical components for the future of the cryptocurrency industry [9][22]. - RWA is not merely about moving traditional assets onto the blockchain but fundamentally restructuring the clearing and settlement layers of capital markets [10][23]. Group 6: Stablecoin Evolution - The role of stablecoins has expanded beyond being mere settlement tools within the crypto market to becoming integral in cross-border payments and trade settlements [11][24]. - The expansion of stablecoins highlights the blockchain's competitive advantage in reducing institutional friction costs, leading to a more compliant and efficient operational framework [12][25]. Conclusion - The adjustments in the cryptocurrency market signify a departure from the narrative of high growth and returns, leading to a fundamental restructuring of asset attributes and pricing logic [13][26]. - The vision of an independent financial world is being replaced by a more pragmatic approach that integrates blockchain technology into the modern financial system, emphasizing efficiency and real-world applications [13][26].

Core Insights - Current market sentiment is rapidly warming, with investors showing increased confidence in the "cyclical style return" [1] - There is an emerging expectation that, with the clear mainline of anti-involution policies, the second half of the year may open a "transition window" into a deflation quadrant [1] - The rapid strengthening of this expectation is prompting a potential style shift in the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Over the past three years, bonds, as typical "deflation assets," have experienced a super bull market, leading many institutions and funds to heavily invest in bonds, bank stocks, and downgraded consumer goods, resulting in a highly concentrated position in deflation assets [1] - As the macro investment clock begins to turn, the market is collectively reducing positions in deflation assets and shifting towards non-deflation or even inflation assets [1] Group 2: Risks and Strategies - There is a warning that without strategic adjustments made in advance, investors may face liquidity shocks during the reallocation of funds [1] - The core risk facing the bond market is highlighted as the lack of buying power when the market collectively sells off, which may force investors to pay a negative feedback premium to exit [1] - Recent weakness in government bond futures prices subtly conveys this pressure [1]