来源：新浪证券 7月29日，新浪财经连线@刘煜辉lyhfhtx 博士，就A股走势、经济周期、资产配置等关键问题进行分 享。>>视频直播 刘煜辉表示，当前市场情绪正在快速升温，投资者对"顺周期风格回归"的信心显著增强。他指出，市场 正在形成一种预期：随着反内卷政策主线明确，下半年有望开启通缩象限的"转场窗口"。这一预期的迅 速强化，正促使资本市场迎来一次可能的风格切换。 他指出，过去三年债券作为典型"通缩资产"经历了超级牛市，大量机构与资金重仓债券、银行股、降级 消费等"口红资产"，使得通缩资产的仓位高度集中、认知趋同。 但当宏观投资时钟开始转向、市场集体减持通缩资产、转向非通缩甚至通胀资产时，刘煜辉警示，如果 没有提前做出策略性调整，将可能遭遇流动性冲击。他直言，资金再配置过程中"最怕的就是没有承接 力"，当市场集中卖出、买方力量不足，投资者要"付出负反馈溢价才能出来"，这正是债券市场面临的 核心风险。近期国债期货价格的走弱，已隐隐传递出这一压力。 直播连麦 直播时间 2025.07.29 15:30 6 微博 刘煜辉谈当前A股机会 2025年下半年研判和策略 ...

Group 1 - The core task of the highest decision-making meeting has elevated the goal of anti-involution, which is expected to enhance market confidence through effective policy execution [2] - The current market sentiment is rapidly warming, with investors showing significant confidence in the return of "pro-cyclical style" as the anti-involution policy becomes clearer [4] - The annual investment in the childcare subsidy program has exceeded 100 billion, indicating strong fiscal support for young families and potential for stimulating domestic demand [3] Group 2 - The pro-cyclical sectors, which are highly represented in the A-share market, are expected to gain significant relative advantages as policies shift [2] - The institutionalization and circulation of data assets are seen as key directions for constructing a new factor system, which may drive the digital economy transformation [5] - High-end manufacturing, particularly in robotics and solid-state battery industries, is anticipated to achieve rapid breakthroughs in commercialization and industrialization [6] Group 3 - The current capital market in China is nurturing a "low wavelength flow" new bull market, driven by trust accumulation rather than emotional outbursts [7] - The market's main trend is determined by investor confidence and risk appetite, rather than sustained profit growth [7] - The expectation of a policy shift towards pro-cyclical assets may lead to a revaluation of the bond market as a "deflation asset" [4]