作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 看大势者赚大钱。 2025年，有色金属以153.9%的涨幅在31个申万行业中位列第二，2026年开年该板块再涨17.2%。 面对当下巨幅波动的有色金属板块，很多投资者开始拿不定主意，下面来看看万家基金叶勇怎么说？ （来源：天天基金网） 商品 的 牛市周期走到了哪里？ 在最近上海证券的专访中，叶勇明确指出，大宗商品的超级周期仍处于上行通道中，短期剧烈波动不 改长期大趋势。 多重因素下，黄金、白银价格屡创历史新高，通胀预期下工业金属价格也在节节升高，再叠加人工智 能发展浪潮，为金属的需求提供了新的动能，使得这轮商品周期变得猛烈而复杂。 他提到从过去接近200年来看，一般是8—10年上行期，约15—20年下行期。而本轮商品周期的上行期 将从2021年持续至2030年左右，目前正处于第二个主升浪阶段。 但他也指出，这个主升浪结束之后可能会有一个回撤，回撤大小取决于这一轮的涨幅有多大。 他认为在见顶之前，价格须达到一个足够高的位置并维持较长时间。因为只有这样，大部分上游资源 领域才会有大量的资本开支被刺激出来。 （来源： 上海证券专访稿 ） 具体商品品类来看，2001至20 ...

Core Insights - Current market sentiment is rapidly warming, with investors showing increased confidence in the "cyclical style return" [1] - There is an emerging expectation that, with the clear mainline of anti-involution policies, the second half of the year may open a "transition window" into a deflation quadrant [1] - The rapid strengthening of this expectation is prompting a potential style shift in the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Over the past three years, bonds, as typical "deflation assets," have experienced a super bull market, leading many institutions and funds to heavily invest in bonds, bank stocks, and downgraded consumer goods, resulting in a highly concentrated position in deflation assets [1] - As the macro investment clock begins to turn, the market is collectively reducing positions in deflation assets and shifting towards non-deflation or even inflation assets [1] Group 2: Risks and Strategies - There is a warning that without strategic adjustments made in advance, investors may face liquidity shocks during the reallocation of funds [1] - The core risk facing the bond market is highlighted as the lack of buying power when the market collectively sells off, which may force investors to pay a negative feedback premium to exit [1] - Recent weakness in government bond futures prices subtly conveys this pressure [1]

Group 1 - The core task of the highest decision-making meeting has elevated the goal of anti-involution, which is expected to enhance market confidence through effective policy execution [2] - The current market sentiment is rapidly warming, with investors showing significant confidence in the return of "pro-cyclical style" as the anti-involution policy becomes clearer [4] - The annual investment in the childcare subsidy program has exceeded 100 billion, indicating strong fiscal support for young families and potential for stimulating domestic demand [3] Group 2 - The pro-cyclical sectors, which are highly represented in the A-share market, are expected to gain significant relative advantages as policies shift [2] - The institutionalization and circulation of data assets are seen as key directions for constructing a new factor system, which may drive the digital economy transformation [5] - High-end manufacturing, particularly in robotics and solid-state battery industries, is anticipated to achieve rapid breakthroughs in commercialization and industrialization [6] Group 3 - The current capital market in China is nurturing a "low wavelength flow" new bull market, driven by trust accumulation rather than emotional outbursts [7] - The market's main trend is determined by investor confidence and risk appetite, rather than sustained profit growth [7] - The expectation of a policy shift towards pro-cyclical assets may lead to a revaluation of the bond market as a "deflation asset" [4]