Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the ongoing bullish cycle in the commodity market, particularly in non-ferrous metals, driven by multiple factors including inflation expectations and advancements in artificial intelligence, which are creating new demand dynamics for metals [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Non-ferrous metals experienced a significant increase of 153.9% in 2025, ranking second among 31 Shenwan industries, with an additional rise of 17.2% at the beginning of 2026 [3]. - The current commodity super cycle is believed to be in an upward trend, with the upturn expected to last until around 2030, currently in its second major wave [4]. - Historical patterns suggest that commodity cycles typically consist of 8-10 years of upward movement followed by 15-20 years of decline [4]. Group 2: Investment Insights - The article highlights the importance of reaching a sufficiently high price level before a potential pullback occurs, which would stimulate significant capital expenditure in upstream resource sectors [5]. - Key commodities identified for investment include gold, silver, copper, and aluminum, with agricultural products lagging behind [7]. - The investment strategy proposed by Ye Yong focuses on a contrarian and value-based approach, suggesting that certain sectors like real estate may not be favorable despite low valuations [9]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Holdings - Ye Yong manages several funds with a notable annualized return of 17.5% since his tenure began, with the flagship fund, Wan Jia Double Engine Flexible Allocation Mixed A, achieving a return of 243.5% [10][12]. - The fund's focus has shifted significantly towards non-ferrous metals, increasing from 4.63% in mid-2022 to around 65% by mid-2024 [13]. - The fund maintains a high stock allocation of 93.1%, with a focus on industrial metals, precious metals, and energy sectors [19]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The potential end of deflation in 2026 is expected to significantly influence market styles, with a recovery in cyclical sectors anticipated if PPI rises [20]. - Three investment strategies are proposed: focusing on industrial non-ferrous and small metals, traditional cyclical industries, and sectors that may benefit from a broader cyclical recovery [21][22]. - Non-ferrous metals are positioned as a leading sector that could benefit from valuation premiums if cyclical styles return [23].

Core Insights - Current market sentiment is rapidly warming, with investors showing increased confidence in the "cyclical style return" [1] - There is an emerging expectation that, with the clear mainline of anti-involution policies, the second half of the year may open a "transition window" into a deflation quadrant [1] - The rapid strengthening of this expectation is prompting a potential style shift in the capital market [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Over the past three years, bonds, as typical "deflation assets," have experienced a super bull market, leading many institutions and funds to heavily invest in bonds, bank stocks, and downgraded consumer goods, resulting in a highly concentrated position in deflation assets [1] - As the macro investment clock begins to turn, the market is collectively reducing positions in deflation assets and shifting towards non-deflation or even inflation assets [1] Group 2: Risks and Strategies - There is a warning that without strategic adjustments made in advance, investors may face liquidity shocks during the reallocation of funds [1] - The core risk facing the bond market is highlighted as the lack of buying power when the market collectively sells off, which may force investors to pay a negative feedback premium to exit [1] - Recent weakness in government bond futures prices subtly conveys this pressure [1]

Group 1 - The core task of the highest decision-making meeting has elevated the goal of anti-involution, which is expected to enhance market confidence through effective policy execution [2] - The current market sentiment is rapidly warming, with investors showing significant confidence in the return of "pro-cyclical style" as the anti-involution policy becomes clearer [4] - The annual investment in the childcare subsidy program has exceeded 100 billion, indicating strong fiscal support for young families and potential for stimulating domestic demand [3] Group 2 - The pro-cyclical sectors, which are highly represented in the A-share market, are expected to gain significant relative advantages as policies shift [2] - The institutionalization and circulation of data assets are seen as key directions for constructing a new factor system, which may drive the digital economy transformation [5] - High-end manufacturing, particularly in robotics and solid-state battery industries, is anticipated to achieve rapid breakthroughs in commercialization and industrialization [6] Group 3 - The current capital market in China is nurturing a "low wavelength flow" new bull market, driven by trust accumulation rather than emotional outbursts [7] - The market's main trend is determined by investor confidence and risk appetite, rather than sustained profit growth [7] - The expectation of a policy shift towards pro-cyclical assets may lead to a revaluation of the bond market as a "deflation asset" [4]