Core Viewpoint - The Euro to USD exchange rate is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, influenced by the contrasting economic data from the Eurozone and the US, with upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and non-farm payroll data expected to be critical for future direction [1][2] Fundamental Analysis - Eurozone's October harmonized CPI decreased to 2.1% year-on-year, while core inflation remained stable at 2.4%, leading the European Central Bank to pause interest rate hikes and maintain a neutral dovish policy, resulting in a lack of support for the Euro [1] - The US labor market shows signs of weakness, with initial jobless claims data indicating a softening, which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts; however, a 1.4% month-on-month increase in August factory orders mitigates downward concerns [1] - The resilience of the US dollar index is attributed to global stock market sell-offs that have triggered safe-haven demand [1] Technical Analysis - The Euro to USD exchange rate has retreated from a high of 1.1918, with a mild rebound from a low of 1.1468, currently consolidating around 1.1530; key support levels are at 1.1541 and 1.1468, while resistance levels are at 1.1700 and the 1.1654-94 cloud area [2] - MACD indicates a reduction in downward momentum, and RSI shows a slight recovery, but the ADX below 16 suggests a weak trend, indicating potential for continued fluctuation before data releases [2] - Future movements will depend on three main variables: US economic data, the recovery strength of the Eurozone, and global risk sentiment; short-term trading may remain within the 1.1468-1.1700 range, with a stable position above 1.1600 potentially targeting 1.1655-1.1700, while a drop below 1.1541 could lead to a decline towards 1.1468 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing fluctuations at high levels due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, global risk capital flows, and de-dollarization actions by various central banks [2] - The three main factors supporting the dollar—relative interest rate advantages, US economic resilience, and safe-haven buying—are facing challenges this year [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% since December of last year, with market expectations shifting towards potential rate cuts in September or November, which diminishes the dollar's upward momentum [4] - Recent US economic data shows signs of weakening, with initial jobless claims exceeding expectations, raising concerns about the impact of high interest rates on the real economy [5] Group 3 - The competitive landscape for global currencies is changing, with the dollar's strong position being challenged [6] - The European Central Bank's potential slow pace of rate cuts due to persistent inflation may lead to a temporary decline in the dollar against the euro [7] - The Bank of Japan may end its negative interest rate policy, which could result in a strong rebound of the yen against the dollar [8] - The Chinese yuan and emerging market currencies are showing resilience due to supportive policies and capital inflows [9] Group 4 - Technical analysis indicates key support levels for the dollar index at 104.20 and 103.50, with resistance levels at 106.00 and 107.10 [10] - Market sentiment is characterized by reduced bullish positions on the dollar, with increased implied volatility in the options market, suggesting intense competition between bulls and bears [11] Group 5 - Short-term strategy suggests a cautious approach with a focus on upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll and CPI data in July, which could influence the dollar's trajectory [12] - A diversified currency portfolio is recommended to hedge against dollar volatility, focusing on currencies like the euro, yen, and yuan [13] Group 6 - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is critical, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth and a potential rise in the unemployment rate, which could impact the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions [16][17]