Report Title - "Cycle, Technology, and Geopolitics: A Triple - Drive for the Non - Ferrous Metals Market" [1] Report Date and Researcher - Date: October 29, 2025 - Researcher: Ma Yun, mayun@cmschina.com.cn, contact number: 18682466799, qualification certificate number: Z0018708 [2] Table of Contents - 01 Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity - 02 Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - 03 Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - 04 Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework [4] Core Views - The non - ferrous metals market is driven by the triple factors of cycle, technology, and geopolitics. The cycle affects the market from aspects of liquidity, supply, and demand; technology brings new demand through metal applications in emerging fields; geopolitics impacts metal prices through strategic material status and currency - related factors [1] Section Summaries Cycle: Supply, Demand, and Liquidity Liquidity - The Federal Reserve is in a rate - cutting cycle, and major economies are in a fiscal expansion period. For example, the U.S. has passed the Big Beautiful Act, discussing the end of balance - sheet reduction and facing a mid - term election next year; the EU Commission predicts that the EU's fiscal deficit rate will rise to 3.3% in 2025 and remain at this level in 2026, with the debt - to - GDP ratio rising from 83.2% in 2025 to 84.5% in 2026; Japan is preparing an economic stimulus plan of over 13.9 trillion yen, and advancing the defense - spending target; China is implementing fiscal expansion, shifting from loose money to loose credit [5][8][10] Supply - There is insufficient capital expenditure in the mining industry, natural decline in mine grades, and depletion of mine resources. This phenomenon is not limited to copper enterprises, and different metal varieties have different investment cycles [11][12] Demand - China provides the beta for metal demand, while emerging countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia provide the alpha. The demand for metals in new energy fields such as photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is also increasing [14][21][23] Technology: Applications of Metals in Emerging Fields - The report does not provide specific content in the given text Geopolitics: Strategic Materials in the Context of Great - Power Rivalry - The U.S. has updated its key mineral list several times. In 2025 (expected), it plans to add 6 minerals such as copper, potassium, silicon, and silver, and consider removing arsenic and tellurium. Some countries have high concentrations in metal production, like Chile and Peru accounting for about 40% of global copper production, and Congo accounting for 75% of global cobalt production. China has a high degree of dependence on most metals except rare earths. Also, the pricing currency hegemony is being challenged, leading to a decline in the trust of global fiat currencies and a re - evaluation of physical assets [24][27] Summary: A Triple - Hit under the Metal Pricing Framework - The report provides a metal pricing framework including factors such as stock price formula, metal price fluctuation formula, and considerations from macro, supply - demand, valuation, and market - behavior aspects, and finally gives trading strategies based on the analysis results [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing fluctuations at high levels due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, global risk capital flows, and de-dollarization actions by various central banks [2] - The three main factors supporting the dollar—relative interest rate advantages, US economic resilience, and safe-haven buying—are facing challenges this year [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in the range of 5.25% to 5.5% since December of last year, with market expectations shifting towards potential rate cuts in September or November, which diminishes the dollar's upward momentum [4] - Recent US economic data shows signs of weakening, with initial jobless claims exceeding expectations, raising concerns about the impact of high interest rates on the real economy [5] Group 3 - The competitive landscape for global currencies is changing, with the dollar's strong position being challenged [6] - The European Central Bank's potential slow pace of rate cuts due to persistent inflation may lead to a temporary decline in the dollar against the euro [7] - The Bank of Japan may end its negative interest rate policy, which could result in a strong rebound of the yen against the dollar [8] - The Chinese yuan and emerging market currencies are showing resilience due to supportive policies and capital inflows [9] Group 4 - Technical analysis indicates key support levels for the dollar index at 104.20 and 103.50, with resistance levels at 106.00 and 107.10 [10] - Market sentiment is characterized by reduced bullish positions on the dollar, with increased implied volatility in the options market, suggesting intense competition between bulls and bears [11] Group 5 - Short-term strategy suggests a cautious approach with a focus on upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll and CPI data in July, which could influence the dollar's trajectory [12] - A diversified currency portfolio is recommended to hedge against dollar volatility, focusing on currencies like the euro, yen, and yuan [13] Group 6 - The upcoming US non-farm payroll data is critical, with expectations of a slowdown in job growth and a potential rise in the unemployment rate, which could impact the Federal Reserve's rate cut decisions [16][17]