责任编辑：栎树 鹰派成员高田创和田村直树表示反对，主张应加息至0.75%。在随后的12月会议上，央行将利率上调至 0.75%的30年来高位。10月会议纪要显示，许多委员认为加息的条件已经成熟，但在美国提高关税影响 的不确定性挥之不去的情况下，他们希望进一步明确明年企业是否会继续加薪。一位委员还指出，高市 早苗政府的政策方向还不确定，也是维持现状的一个原因。日本央行10月底开会时，距离高市政府10月 21日就职仅一周多，这使得央行决策者几乎没有时间去了解新政府对货币政策的看法。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 12月24日，日本央行10月会议纪要显示，日本央行决策者就是否有必要继续将利率上调至中性水平进行 了辩论，其中一些人认为这样做将有助于实现长期稳定的增长，不过由九名成员组成的政策委员会中也 有少数人表示，近期日元汇率下跌可能会推高进口成本，从而导致通胀攀升。在10月的会议上，日本央 行将利率维持在0.5%不变，但行长植田和男就近期加息的可能性发出了强烈信号。 ...

Group 1 - The current market environment is characterized by rising inflation, increased business cycle volatility, and de-globalization trends, indicating a new era in the global economy [1] - The "Liberation Day" tariff policy in the U.S. reflects these new trends, showcasing volatility and de-globalization tendencies that are emblematic of the current global economic landscape [1] - Investors are advised to focus on their investment goals and shield themselves from external disturbances in this uncertain environment [1] Group 2 - In the new economic landscape, the stock market has undergone profound changes, with a higher capital cost and increased volatility, making it challenging for many companies to survive [2] - High-quality stocks, characterized by high return on equity, low leverage, and stable earnings, are more likely to outperform competitors in a survival-of-the-fittest environment [4] - Active managers may have an advantage over passive managers in identifying high-quality companies due to their ability to employ qualitative analysis [4] Group 3 - The new economic normal features increased uncertainty in interest rates and government bonds, complicating the balance between promoting economic growth and controlling inflation [5] - Traditional views of government bonds as safe-haven assets are being challenged due to the increased uncertainty surrounding them [6] - A strategic and adaptive bond allocation strategy is essential in the current environment, as the previous "set it and forget it" approach is no longer effective [6] Group 4 - Market volatility presents opportunities for high-yield investors, with widening spreads and increased differentiation among regions, industries, and issuers [7] - The U.S. and European high-yield investment products currently offer attractive yields, with Europe standing out due to its larger, more diversified market and improved overall quality [7] - High-yield investments can provide a balanced strategy by combining growth potential and risk hedging, but investors must also consider the long-term sustainability and quality of yields [7] Group 5 - The new economic era is expected to be more challenging than the post-financial crisis environment, with uncertainty potentially causing anxiety among investors [8] - Focusing on investment quality and employing flexible fixed-income strategies are crucial for navigating this turbulent period [8] - The changes in the economic landscape present new opportunities for investors who know how to identify and capitalize on them [8]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that U.S. tariff measures will have significant negative impacts on the global economy, including the U.S. itself, with a notable reduction in economic growth forecasts for 2025 and rising inflation expectations [1][2]. Economic Growth Projections - The IMF projects global economic growth to slow to 2.8% in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of 3.3% made in January, and below the historical average of 3.7% from 2000 to 2019 [1]. - The U.S. economic growth forecast for this year has been revised down to 1.8%, a decrease of nearly 1 percentage point from the previous estimate of 2.7% [1]. - The U.S. economic growth for 2026 is expected to be 1.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from earlier predictions [1]. Inflation Expectations - The IMF predicts that U.S. inflation will rise to 3% this year, which is 1 percentage point higher than the forecast made in January [1][2]. Impact on Other Economies - The IMF forecasts that Mexico, as a major trading partner of the U.S., will experience the most severe economic impact, with a projected contraction of 0.3% this year [4]. - Japan's economic growth is expected to be 0.6%, down from a previous estimate of 1.1%, while Germany's growth is projected to be flat at 0.0% this year [4]. Risks and Uncertainties - The current economic outlook is dominated by increasing downside risks, with escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainties potentially suppressing both short-term and long-term economic growth [4]. - The IMF has raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 from 25% to 37% [4]. Potential for Improvement - The IMF's chief economist suggests that if current trade policies are paused and new trade agreements are reached, the global economic growth outlook could improve immediately [5].