1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long term, precious metals are expected to continue an upward trend as the economic system restructuring drives currency system restructuring. However, in the medium term, with the easing of risk aversion and low interest - rate cut expectations, precious metals may continue to oscillate and build a bottom. The gold - silver ratio may rebound in the medium term and is expected to return to a downward trend in the long term [6][69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Recent Market Review - During the current bull market, the Fed has been cautious about interest - rate cuts, while the market has shown obvious over - anticipation. Gold's performance is significantly affected by the risk - aversion logic, and it faces greater short - term correction pressure when risk aversion eases. Silver had higher volatility than gold in previous bull markets but has had a lower average increase in recent years due to the drag of its industrial attributes. Since the second half of 2025, silver has rapidly made up for the increase, but there is a risk that the demand may be disproven after the price rises. Platinum and palladium have started to make up for the increase since 2025. After the domestic futures were launched, platinum quickly corrected after breaking through the previous high, and palladium is still far from its previous high, with the platinum - palladium ratio remaining at a low level [5][9][10]. 3.2 Investment Logic Evolution - The monetary policies of global central banks have been highly differentiated in recent years. In the process of "de - dollarization", non - US currencies have a significant impact on precious metals, and the difference in interest - rate cut expectations between them and the US is particularly crucial. The Fed has more room for interest - rate cuts in the later stage. The market currently expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in March and April, with the next possible rate cut in June, and the remaining rate - cut space is about 50 basis points, indicating that rate cuts will end this year [6][19][23]. - Inflation in major economies has been generally mild recently, and the inflation pressure from the trade war has not emerged. The US economic growth has slowed down but remains strong overall, while non - US economies are showing an upward trend from the bottom. The IMF has raised its forecast for the global economic growth rate in 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the October forecast. It also expects the US economic growth rate to be 2.4% in 2026, higher than the 2.1% forecast in October, and has raised China's growth forecast to 4.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast [6][28][34]. - The expected high deficits and increased supply of government bonds in major economies have led to rising yields, and the global debt problem is expected to continue to support the risk pricing of precious metals [6][37]. 3.3 Precious Metals Future Trend Outlook - In the long run, as an ultra - sovereign currency, precious metals may continue to move upward as the path of least resistance due to economic and currency system restructuring. In the process of "de - dollarization", the share of the US dollar in the global central bank's foreign exchange reserves and international payments has decreased, while the share of gold has increased significantly. However, the US dollar still holds a dominant position, and "de - dollarization" is a long - term process [40][42]. - The inversion of the 3 - month to 10 - year US Treasury yield spread, which the Fed is concerned about, has continued to decline recently, reducing the risk of a US economic recession. The US - Europe interest - rate spread has been oscillating at a high level, and the US - China interest - rate spread has significantly declined. The real yield of US Treasury bonds has rebounded after encountering resistance in its downward movement, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. The US dollar index is in a downward trend in the large cycle, but the support near the lower break is still strong [43][47]. - In terms of the risk - aversion attribute of precious metals, the S&P 500 volatility index is in an ultra - low range in recent years and has shown recent fluctuations. The uncertainty of US economic policies has declined after Trump took office [48]. - In terms of the capital side, the net long positions of gold and silver in CFTC positions have recently declined from high levels this year. SPDR Gold ETF and iShare Silver ETF have shown a trend of increasing positions recently after continuous position reductions since 2021. The net long positions of platinum in CFTC positions have declined from high levels, and the net long positions of palladium have continuously decreased from high levels. The net long positions of Shanghai gold futures companies have recently increased rapidly, while the net positions of Shanghai silver have declined at a low level [51][54][57]. - The global gold supply is expected to be stable. The demand for gold jewelry is less affected by high gold prices, and there is still potential for private and central - bank investment demand. The World Silver Association states that due to a 1% decrease in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap is expected to narrow by 21% to about 3,658 tons in 2025. Platinum mining is highly concentrated, and production growth is limited. Driven by diversified applications, there is a long - term strong expectation for the demand for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen - energy industry. Palladium is expected to face a structural surplus in the long term due to the decline in demand from the fuel - vehicle market [63][65][67].