Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between "policy expectation games" and "technical corrections," with short-term pressure from a strong dollar and delayed interest rate cuts, but medium to long-term support from central bank gold purchases and stagflation risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold market is in a dual turning point driven by both technical and fundamental factors, with prices oscillating between $3,260 and $3,420, indicating intense competition between bullish and bearish forces [3] - U.S. inflation pressures are reinforcing the Federal Reserve's delay in interest rate cuts, while escalating trade tensions are weakening safe-haven demand, negatively impacting gold prices [3] Group 2: Key Drivers - A rare policy dispute is unfolding within the Federal Reserve, with hawks warning that tariffs could raise consumer prices, necessitating restrictive policies to curb inflation expectations, while doves argue for two rate cuts by year-end [4] - The division among Fed officials has led to significant volatility in interest rate futures, with a 54% probability of a rate cut in September and a 30% chance of action in July, creating uncertainty that supports gold's safe-haven appeal [4] Group 3: Long-term Value - Despite the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching a monthly high of 4.495%, gold has shown resilience, indicating that the market is positioning for potential gains [5] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3,700 per ounce for gold by the end of 2025, with the possibility of reaching $3,800 if central bank purchases exceed expectations or if global economic recession deepens [5]

Core Insights - The support for gold is weakening, leading to a potential resurgence of risk-off sentiment in the market [1] - The US dollar has rebounded but has not broken through key resistance levels, which may impact gold prices [1] - There is a question regarding whether the current bullish risks for gold are excessively high [1] Market Analysis - Gold prices have experienced a rebound but subsequently fell back, failing to surpass psychological resistance levels [1] - The current market dynamics suggest a cautious outlook for gold as it struggles to maintain upward momentum [1]