【股指期货】周二（12 月 2 日）A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.42%，收报 3897.71 点；深证 成指跌 0.68%，收报 13056.70 点；创业板指跌 0.69%，收报 3071.15 点。沪深两市成交额 15934 亿，较昨日缩量 2805 亿。 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 3 日 星期三 品种观点： 沪深 300 指数 12 月 2 日回调整理。收盘 4554.34，环比下跌 22.15。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 2 日焦炭加权指数持续反弹，收盘价 1677.7，环比上涨 35.6。 12 月 2 日，焦煤加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1139.3 元，环比上涨 19.6。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：供应维持增长。库存：维持大幅累库，矿山精煤库存单周累库 20.44%，焦厂焦炭库存单周累库 9.91%。 近期焦煤呈现弱基本面和强政策预期博弈的状态。基本面压力凸显的基础上，近期主要变量集中在政策预期博弈， 11 月中旬以来煤矿供应端出现"保供"内容扰动，但同时"查超产"并未明确出现否定迹象，因此 12 月 ...

证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 聚焦政策预期博弈 ——每周高频跟踪 20251129 （1）动力煤：煤价由涨转跌。终端企业采购以长协煤兑现为主，下游对高 价煤炭接受度偏低，本周电厂日耗小幅下降。产地煤炭提涨，进口煤优势显 现，港口价格环比转跌。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格涨幅收窄。螺纹钢（HRB400 20mm）现货价格环 比+1.2%。前期供给强势，叠加螺纹钢市场进入需求淡季，周产量环比下 滑，推升表观需求改善，去库相对加快。 （3）铜：价格环比止跌回升。美联储 12 月降息概率上升，风险偏好回升推 动大宗商品价格上涨。国内铜库存保持去库，供给偏紧支撑铜价维持高位震 荡。 2、地产：（1）新房成交环比延续上行。11 月 21 日-11 月 27 日，30 城新房成 交面积 212.7 万平方米，环比+9.5%，同比-21.6%。（2）二手房成交进一步回 落。本周环比-0.5%，同比-15.2%。 ❖ 消费相关：11 月乘用车零售维持负增长 1、汽车：11 月 1-23 日，全国乘用车市场零售 138.4 万辆，同比去年 11 月同 期下降 11%，较上月同期下降 2%，但较 2023 年仍有 14%左右正增长。 ...

Group 1 - The dollar index experienced slight downward pressure after a previous rise due to strong economic data and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with market participants focusing on key events such as Fed Chair Powell's speech and the upcoming core PCE index release [1] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut did not open the door for a broader easing cycle, as internal cautious voices emerged, indicating limited space for further rate cuts due to ongoing concerns about inflation risks and a still accommodative financial environment [3] - The U.S. Treasury market remained stable, with minor yield changes, as the market awaited clearer data signals, with predictions suggesting that the core PCE data may be weaker than previously feared, potentially providing the Fed with more reasons to remain on hold [4] Group 2 - From a technical analysis perspective, the dollar index is at a sensitive point, showing signs of a bearish reversal pattern as it tests a key resistance level, which could lead to a downward adjustment if confirmed [5] - The recent dollar pullback provided a brief respite for other major currencies, such as the British pound, which saw a slight increase; however, the pound's rebound is constrained by significant domestic fiscal challenges and market pessimism regarding upcoming PMI data [7] - The dollar index is likely to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with its next directional choice heavily influenced by the upcoming PCE data and Powell's speech, as the market navigates a tug-of-war between economic data and central bank policy expectations [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed Chair hinted at a possible rate cut in the September meeting, but emphasized that monetary policy has no preset path [3]. - A 500 - billion - yuan "quasi - fiscal" tool is to be issued, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [4]. - In the week from August 18th to August 22nd, the bond market yield continued to rise, and the term spread widened. Next week, factors such as capital availability, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and policy expectation games need to be focused on [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Dynamics - Fed may cut rates in September: On the evening of August 22nd, the Fed Chair hinted at a possible rate cut in the September meeting at the Jackson Hole meeting [3]. - New policy - based financial tools to be issued: A 500 - billion - yuan "quasi - fiscal" tool is to be issued, targeting emerging industries and infrastructure [4]. Bond Market Conditions - **Primary Supply**: From August 18th to August 22nd, the cumulative issuance of interest - rate bonds was 925.8 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 370.1 billion yuan. The issuance scales of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds were 392.7 billion yuan, 369.2 billion yuan, and 164 billion yuan respectively, with month - on - month increases of 82.4 billion yuan, 277.7 billion yuan, and 10 billion yuan [5]. - **Funding Situation**: The funding situation was relatively loose. The operating range of DR007 was 1.4669 - 1.5680%, a decrease of 1.29BP compared to August 15th. The central bank's net investment this week was 136.52 billion yuan [5]. - **Secondary Market**: In the week from August 18th to August 22nd, the bond market yield rose, and the bond market continued to decline. As of August 22nd, the yields of 1Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds rose by 0.42BP, 3.53BP, and 3BP respectively, closing at 1.37%, 1.78%, and 2.08%. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 increased by 3.6bp in total [6][7]. - **Term Spread**: The yield curve continued the bear - steepening trend. The 10Y - 1Y term spread increased by 3.11BP to 41.1BP, and the 30Y - 10Y term spread decreased by 0.53BP to 29.6BP [7]. Bond Market Strategy Next week, the following factors need to be focused on: - **Funding Situation**: The scale of reverse repurchase maturities next week reaches 2.98 trillion yuan. It is necessary to observe whether the central bank will increase investment to stabilize the funding situation, especially the marginal changes in liquidity after the end of the month [8]. - **Stock - Bond Seesaw Effect**: After the Shanghai Composite Index breaks through 3800 points, if it continues to rise, it may suppress bond market sentiment [8]. - **Policy Expectation Game**: The issuance of 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial tools may be a short - term negative for the bond market if it exceeds expectations. The implementation of the Fed's rate - cut expectation may be a short - term positive for the bond market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between "policy expectation games" and "technical corrections," with short-term pressure from a strong dollar and delayed interest rate cuts, but medium to long-term support from central bank gold purchases and stagflation risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold market is in a dual turning point driven by both technical and fundamental factors, with prices oscillating between $3,260 and $3,420, indicating intense competition between bullish and bearish forces [3] - U.S. inflation pressures are reinforcing the Federal Reserve's delay in interest rate cuts, while escalating trade tensions are weakening safe-haven demand, negatively impacting gold prices [3] Group 2: Key Drivers - A rare policy dispute is unfolding within the Federal Reserve, with hawks warning that tariffs could raise consumer prices, necessitating restrictive policies to curb inflation expectations, while doves argue for two rate cuts by year-end [4] - The division among Fed officials has led to significant volatility in interest rate futures, with a 54% probability of a rate cut in September and a 30% chance of action in July, creating uncertainty that supports gold's safe-haven appeal [4] Group 3: Long-term Value - Despite the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching a monthly high of 4.495%, gold has shown resilience, indicating that the market is positioning for potential gains [5] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3,700 per ounce for gold by the end of 2025, with the possibility of reaching $3,800 if central bank purchases exceed expectations or if global economic recession deepens [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The game points of Treasury bond futures are concentrated on the dual disturbances of risk preference and capital. The stock - bond seesaw effect and the rise of long - term interest rates suppress the bond market, while the government bond tax payment peak and cross - month factors cause concerns about capital tightness, further suppressing the long sentiment of Treasury bond futures. The current domestic economic repair momentum is still weak, so the monetary policy maintains a supportive stance and the liquidity environment is generally loose [2] - In the short term, the bond market will continue to fluctuate under the game between loose capital and supply disturbances. The market's focus will gradually shift to the Politburo meeting in July and the evolution of Sino - US trade relations, and future policy tone and external disturbances will dominate the trend direction [3] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI monthly环比 is - 0.20% and同比 is - 0.10%; China's PPI monthly环比 is - 0.40% and同比 is - 3.30% [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of + 0.51%; M2同比 is 7.90%, with a decrease of - 0.10% and a change rate of - 1.25%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.70%, with an increase of + 0.20% and a growth rate of + 0.40% [8] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.78, with an increase of + 0.13 and a growth rate of + 0.13%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.1640, with an increase of + 0.008 and a growth rate of + 0.11%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.50, with a decrease of - 0.03 and a change rate of - 2.16%; DR007 is 1.51, with a decrease of - 0.04 and a change rate of - 2.61%; R007 is 1.64, with a decrease of - 0.12 and a change rate of - 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a decrease of - 0.03 and a change rate of - 1.94%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.07, with an increase of + 0.00 and a change rate of - 1.94% [8] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant charts show the closing price trend, price change rate, maturity yield trend, valuation change, precipitation funds trend, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, trading - position ratio, bond lending turnover and total position of Treasury bond futures, as well as the spread between national development bonds and Treasury bonds and the issuance of Treasury bonds [9][13][15][16][19][26][28] 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital Situation - Relevant charts show the interest rate corridor, central bank open - market operations, Shibor interest rate trend, inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) maturity yield trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and local bond issuance [24][29][32] 4. Spread Overview - Relevant charts show the inter - period spread trend of Treasury bond futures and the spread between spot - bond term spread and futures cross - variety spread [36][39][40] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [42][44][55] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [51][54][57] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [62][65] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts show the implied interest rate and Treasury bond maturity yield, IRR and capital interest rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [70][73][76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the yield of treasury bonds showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Weak credit demand, an economic outlook, and external uncertainties supported the bond market. Although the Lujiazui Forum signaled financial opening, the lack of unexpected easing measures led to a decline in the bond market. Towards the weekend, stable LPR, a weak stock market, and stable capital contributed to bond market growth and increased expectations for easing policies in the second half of the year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis Macro - aspect - On May 7, the central bank announced a package of ten measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, policy and structural tool interest rate cuts, and housing provident fund loan rate cuts. Special re - loans were also added and expanded in multiple fields [1]. - From May 10 - 12, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Geneva, and a joint statement was released, stating that 24% tariffs would be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% tariffs would be imposed later [1]. - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR dropped from 3.1% to 3.0%, and the over - 5 - year LPR dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%. State - owned and some joint - stock banks also cut deposit rates. On June 20, the LPR remained unchanged [1]. - In May, the CPI decreased by - 0.1% year - on - year [1]. Capital - aspect - On June 20, 2025, the central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.37%, 1.49%, and 1.73% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. Market - aspect - On June 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.54 yuan, 106.28 yuan, 109.15 yuan, and 121.32 yuan respectively. Their weekly price changes were 0.08%, 0.12%, 0.12%, and 0.66% respectively [2]. - The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.08 yuan, - 0.07 yuan, - 0.09 yuan, and - 0.12 yuan respectively [2]. Strategy - **Single - side**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatile treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - position investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. Yield Curve The short - term volatility of the yield curve has intensified, and the trend still awaits further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].