Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides daily futures analysis from Goldtrust Futures on November 14, 2025, covering multiple futures including soda ash, stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, methanol, and pulp [1][2] - The overall view is that the soda ash market is in a state of cost support and oversold rebound, and investors should seize long - position opportunities. For other futures, different trading strategies are proposed based on their fundamentals and technical aspects [3][5] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures - On November 13, the soda ash futures 2601 contract closed at 1,229 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan or 1.89%, with a trading volume of 1.2939 million lots, showing a trend of rising price and volume [3] - The rise is due to cost support and technical repair, not a fundamental reversal of the supply - demand pattern. High supply and high inventory remain the core contradictions, with national soda ash inventory above 1.7 million tons, and weak demand in the glass industry [3][4] - Technically, the contract showed support at around 1,186 yuan, and recent KD and MACD indicators formed golden crosses, boosting short - term bullish sentiment [4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures closed with a positive line. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology promotes the expansion of power battery applications and supports innovation in battery - swapping models and vehicle - grid interaction pilots. OPEC's monthly report indicates a potential oversupply in the global oil market next year [8] - It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate higher in the short term [8] Group 4: Gold Futures - After a period of adjustment, gold shows signs of rising again, and investors can buy on dips [13] Group 5: Iron Ore Futures - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it has broken through important support and may enter a technical short - position trend. The strategy is to short on rebounds [15] - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply surplus is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still sluggish [16] Group 6: Glass Futures - The daily melting volume of glass has little change, and inventory has decreased this week. The subsequent drivers mainly depend on policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] - Technically, it has broken through the support level and shows no sign of stabilization, so it should be regarded as bearish with fluctuations [19] Group 7: Methanol Futures - This week, methanol inventory at ports in East China has accumulated, with a good unloading speed. In the cycle, rigid demand pick - up in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is stable month - on - month, and there is support from trans - shipment vessels in the Yangtze River area. In South China, inventory has slightly decreased [22] - Investors can seize short - term long - position opportunities [22] Group 8: Pulp Futures - In October, pulp imports decreased month - on - month, and domestic port inventory showed a downward trend, but the supply in the market is still abundant. The sporadic publication bidding of cultural paper has boosted market confidence, but the social demand is flat, and paper mills' gross profit continues to decline. The futures market has shown a volatile rebound recently [25]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is experiencing a tug-of-war between "policy expectation games" and "technical corrections," with short-term pressure from a strong dollar and delayed interest rate cuts, but medium to long-term support from central bank gold purchases and stagflation risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold market is in a dual turning point driven by both technical and fundamental factors, with prices oscillating between $3,260 and $3,420, indicating intense competition between bullish and bearish forces [3] - U.S. inflation pressures are reinforcing the Federal Reserve's delay in interest rate cuts, while escalating trade tensions are weakening safe-haven demand, negatively impacting gold prices [3] Group 2: Key Drivers - A rare policy dispute is unfolding within the Federal Reserve, with hawks warning that tariffs could raise consumer prices, necessitating restrictive policies to curb inflation expectations, while doves argue for two rate cuts by year-end [4] - The division among Fed officials has led to significant volatility in interest rate futures, with a 54% probability of a rate cut in September and a 30% chance of action in July, creating uncertainty that supports gold's safe-haven appeal [4] Group 3: Long-term Value - Despite the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching a monthly high of 4.495%, gold has shown resilience, indicating that the market is positioning for potential gains [5] - Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $3,700 per ounce for gold by the end of 2025, with the possibility of reaching $3,800 if central bank purchases exceed expectations or if global economic recession deepens [5]