避险预期
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张尧浠:美停摆结束鹰言出击、金价跳水再陷调整待涨预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 00:40
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a bullish outlook despite short-term adjustments, driven by economic data and geopolitical factors [1][5][6]. Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a high of $4245.07 per ounce before retreating to $4080.31, with a weekly fluctuation of $247.37 and a net increase of $78.94, or 1.97% [1]. - The market anticipates a continuation of bullish trends, with gold remaining above the 10-week moving average and the Bollinger Bands indicating upward momentum [1][5]. Economic Influences - Weak economic data has reinforced expectations for a loose monetary policy, contributing to a temporary rebound in gold prices of over $200 [3]. - The reopening of the U.S. government is expected to release a backlog of important employment and inflation data, which may further support gold prices [5][6]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The article notes that several Federal Reserve officials have expressed cautious views on interest rate cuts, which has pressured gold prices [3]. - However, there is a prevailing sentiment that the market may see a more dovish environment in the future, potentially leading to rate cuts that would benefit gold [5][6]. Technical Analysis - The technical outlook suggests that gold prices are likely to rebound from current support levels, with key focus on the 5/10 week moving averages for potential bullish signals [7][9]. - Immediate support levels for gold are identified at $4070 or $4050, while resistance levels are at $4125 or $4160 [9]. Future Projections - The article posits that gold could target $5000 per ounce in the long term, with current price adjustments viewed as buying opportunities rather than a trend reversal [6]. - The expectation of a continued easing cycle or a more accommodative monetary policy environment is likely to sustain upward pressure on gold prices [6].
张尧浠:更大降息周期前景升温?金价5000美元仍可觊觎
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 01:26
张尧浠:更大降息周期前景升温?金价5000美元仍可觊觎 上交易日周三(11月12日):国际黄金如期继续反弹收阳,稳于中轨及30日均线上方,多头占据优势,后市将进一步等待触及4250美元或4400美元预期目 标。目前来看,后续到年底走势,要么维持高位宽幅震荡,要么持续走强攀升。 具体走势上,金价自亚市开于4127.21美元/盎司,先行走低,于午间时段录得日内低点4098.72美元,之后触底回升,并在美盘23点时段,多头力量加大, 迅速拉升走强,于盘尾录得日内高点4211.37美元,最终多头有所减缓,收于4195.22美元,日振幅112.65美元,收涨68.01美元,涨幅1.65%。 影响上,亚盘受到周二多头动力减缓和一定的遇阻压力而先行走弱,但由于支撑买盘,以及市场评估美国政府恢复运转后,大量经济数据公布将对美联储 利率政策产生升温的预期。使其触底回升; 另外,美盘时段,亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克意外宣布将退休,特朗普再获插手机会!乌方称年底前不会与俄方进行和平谈判,提升避险预期等等,助力 金价再度走强拉升收涨。 展望今日周四(11月13日):国际黄金开盘先行窄幅波动,因昨日遇阻回撤压力,以及早盘美元指数的止跌运 ...