一、当前房地产市场态势剖析 （一）整体数据表现欠佳 今年 1 月至 7 月，从国家统计局公布的数据来看，房地产开发投资、新建商品房销售面积和销售额、房 地产开发企业到位资金同比均呈现下降态势。以 7 月为例，全国新建商品房销售面积 5709 万平方米， 销售额 5325 亿元，分别环比下滑 46% 和 48%；房屋新开工面积 4842 万㎡，环比下降 32.6%，同比下 降 15.4% 。7 月各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.2%，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降 1.0%。如北京，8 月二手房报价 49465 元 / 平，较上月波动 -0.18% ，多区域房价均有不同程度下滑 。这些数据直观地反映出当前房地产市场仍面临着较大的下行 压力，市场的活跃度和信心亟待进一步提升。 （二）局部积极因素涌现 尽管整体数据不容乐观，但房地产市场积极因素也在持续增加，一些城市表现相对稳定。7 月份，70 个 大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅整体有所收窄。有 10 个城市新建商品住宅销售价格 与上月相比持平或上涨：北京、大连、南宁、徐州新建商品住宅价格与上月持平；上海、 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of the policy is to stabilize the real estate market, preventing panic-induced declines and systemic financial risks, indicating that while prices may not surge, significant drops are also unlikely [2] - The renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing is a key strategy, aimed at improving living conditions and generating new housing demand, which will enhance property values and absorb existing inventory [2][3] - The policies are designed to support "improvement demand," targeting those looking to upgrade their homes, with potential measures including lower down payments for second homes and interest rate incentives [3] Group 2 - For first-time homebuyers, the focus should be on selecting the right property based on location, quality, and surrounding amenities, while ensuring that monthly payments do not exceed 50% of household income [6] - For those with improvement needs, it is advisable to monitor upcoming policies that may lower costs associated with purchasing new homes, and to consider selling their current property before buying a new one [7] - Investors should shift their focus from speculative buying to long-term holding in core urban areas with population growth, relying on rental income to manage cash flow [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent State Council meeting emphasized the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and release improvement demand, indicating a continued focus on achieving a "stop decline and stabilize" policy goal [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Direction - The government has prioritized stabilizing the real estate market as a key task this year, with multiple meetings reiterating the importance of maintaining stability [2]. - The latest meeting highlighted the urgency of implementing effective policies, suggesting that a new round of large-scale support measures for the real estate market may be forthcoming, potentially exceeding previous efforts [2]. Group 2: Improvement Demand - The meeting called for a multi-faceted approach to release improvement demand, which is increasingly significant in the overall real estate market [3]. - Data from the China Index Academy indicates that in the first five months of this year, the transaction share of 120-144 square meter units in 30 key cities reached 30%, marking a shift towards improvement-type properties [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market conditions necessitate a greater focus on improvement demand, which includes upgrading housing through various means [4]. - On the supply side, enhancing the availability of high-quality housing has become a key focus for local real estate policies, with around 40 cities introducing guidelines for quality housing since 2024 [4]. - On the demand side, local governments are reducing purchasing restrictions and increasing support for families with multiple children to stimulate improvement demand [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a series of strong real estate stimulus policies are being prepared to stabilize the market and enhance consumer confidence, which is crucial for economic recovery [1][3] - The government emphasizes the need for effective measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, indicating that previous policies have shown initial success, although further efforts are required [6][10] - Urban renewal and the renovation of old housing are highlighted as key components of the new phase of real estate development, shifting focus from large-scale demolition to improving existing structures, which can release significant housing demand [8][10] Group 2 - The government aims to stimulate improvement demand through various measures, including urban renewal and policies favoring multi-child families, which can create more opportunities for upgrading housing [10][12] - Adjustments in purchasing qualifications and costs for second or third homes are expected to provide unprecedented benefits to buyers, aligning with the current market needs [12] - The era of blindly investing in real estate is over, and buyers are advised to be cautious despite the favorable policies [12]