一、当前房地产市场态势剖析 （一）整体数据表现欠佳 今年 1 月至 7 月，从国家统计局公布的数据来看，房地产开发投资、新建商品房销售面积和销售额、房 地产开发企业到位资金同比均呈现下降态势。以 7 月为例，全国新建商品房销售面积 5709 万平方米， 销售额 5325 亿元，分别环比下滑 46% 和 48%；房屋新开工面积 4842 万㎡，环比下降 32.6%，同比下 降 15.4% 。7 月各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.2%，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降 1.0%。如北京，8 月二手房报价 49465 元 / 平，较上月波动 -0.18% ，多区域房价均有不同程度下滑 。这些数据直观地反映出当前房地产市场仍面临着较大的下行 压力，市场的活跃度和信心亟待进一步提升。 （二）局部积极因素涌现 尽管整体数据不容乐观，但房地产市场积极因素也在持续增加，一些城市表现相对稳定。7 月份，70 个 大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅整体有所收窄。有 10 个城市新建商品住宅销售价格 与上月相比持平或上涨：北京、大连、南宁、徐州新建商品住宅价格与上月持平；上海、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The urbanization process in China has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with the urbanization rate reaching 67% in 2024, an increase of 6.76 percentage points from 60.24% in 2017 [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on improving the quality of existing urban areas rather than expanding into new ones. This includes the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [2]. - The report suggests that the new real estate development model will involve a mechanism that links population needs with housing supply, optimizing the housing supply system to include both affordable housing and commercial properties [2]. - The report highlights the importance of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with a target of adding 1 million units for such renovations by October 2024, which is expected to improve living conditions and enhance urban livability [2]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in leading real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group, among others, suggesting that these companies may benefit from lower financing costs and high market share in core areas [2]. Summary by Sections Urbanization Transition - The urbanization rate in China has increased to 67% in 2024, marking a significant rise from previous years [2]. - The focus has shifted from large-scale expansion to enhancing the quality of existing urban areas [2]. New Real Estate Development Model - The report outlines a new model that emphasizes the linkage between population needs and housing supply, aiming for a more efficient housing supply system [2]. - It suggests a dual approach to housing supply, integrating affordable housing with commercial real estate [2]. Urban Renovation Initiatives - The report mentions a goal of 1 million units for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations by October 2024, which is expected to improve urban living conditions [2]. - The renovation efforts are anticipated to release additional housing demand through appropriate monetary compensation schemes [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading real estate firms such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group for potential investment opportunities [2]. - It also suggests monitoring quality developers and property management companies for investment prospects [2].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban village and dilapidated housing renovation as a significant public welfare project, with local disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies enhancing oversight to ensure smooth project execution [2][4] - In Laixi City, Shandong Province, a comprehensive supervision chain has been established, focusing on responsibility enforcement, process supervision, and case handling, with a detailed supervision checklist covering 23 items across 8 categories [2][3] - In Qixian County, Henan Province, a special inspection team has been formed to monitor various stages of the renovation process, including qualification review, planning approval, construction supervision, and fund disbursement [2][3] Group 2 - The article highlights the implementation of embedded supervision and dynamic monitoring in Chongqing's Liangping District, utilizing big data comparison and participation in decision-making meetings to oversee key project stages [4] - The role of public supervision is emphasized, with local agencies encouraging community feedback and complaints to ensure transparency and accountability throughout the renovation process [4][5] - In Huangshi City, Hubei Province, a QR code system has been introduced for public supervision, allowing for quick resolution of issues related to project quality and safety measures [5]