Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing stable prices with a slight decrease in inventory levels, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1][2][3] Pricing - As of August 28, the price of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,100 yuan/ton, and in Foshan, it is 13,050 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day [1] - The basis price is 420 yuan/ton, which has decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [1] Raw Materials - The nickel ore market is relatively stable, with 1.3% nickel ore resources trading at FOB 32 and CIF 42, showing a month-on-month increase [1] - Nickel pig iron prices are showing a slight upward trend, with a recent bid price of 940 yuan/nickel, up by 40 yuan/nickel from the last public inquiry [1] - The chromium ore market is experiencing tight supply, leading to rising prices due to strong cost support [1] Supply - In August, the estimated crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills is 3.3041 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.29% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.64% [1] - The output for the 300 series is estimated at 1.7598 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3% and a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [1] Inventory - As of August 29, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan is 499,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5,500 tons [2] - The stainless steel futures inventory is 100,431 tons, down by 18,209 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with prices stable but affected by overall market sentiment and reduced high-priced resource circulation [3] - Downstream purchasing activity remains low, primarily driven by essential needs [3] - The recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and easing export pressures from U.S.-China tariff negotiations are contributing to a cautious market outlook [3] - Despite improvements in steel mill profits and increased production motivation, the overall demand remains weak, with traditional downstream sectors showing sluggish demand [3]

一、当前房地产市场态势剖析 （一）整体数据表现欠佳 今年 1 月至 7 月，从国家统计局公布的数据来看，房地产开发投资、新建商品房销售面积和销售额、房 地产开发企业到位资金同比均呈现下降态势。以 7 月为例，全国新建商品房销售面积 5709 万平方米， 销售额 5325 亿元，分别环比下滑 46% 和 48%；房屋新开工面积 4842 万㎡，环比下降 32.6%，同比下 降 15.4% 。7 月各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降 0.2%，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降 1.0%。如北京，8 月二手房报价 49465 元 / 平，较上月波动 -0.18% ，多区域房价均有不同程度下滑 。这些数据直观地反映出当前房地产市场仍面临着较大的下行 压力，市场的活跃度和信心亟待进一步提升。 （二）局部积极因素涌现 尽管整体数据不容乐观，但房地产市场积极因素也在持续增加，一些城市表现相对稳定。7 月份，70 个 大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅整体有所收窄。有 10 个城市新建商品住宅销售价格 与上月相比持平或上涨：北京、大连、南宁、徐州新建商品住宅价格与上月持平；上海、 ...

Group 1 - The core objective of the policy is to stabilize the real estate market, preventing panic-induced declines and systemic financial risks, indicating that while prices may not surge, significant drops are also unlikely [2] - The renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing is a key strategy, aimed at improving living conditions and generating new housing demand, which will enhance property values and absorb existing inventory [2][3] - The policies are designed to support "improvement demand," targeting those looking to upgrade their homes, with potential measures including lower down payments for second homes and interest rate incentives [3] Group 2 - For first-time homebuyers, the focus should be on selecting the right property based on location, quality, and surrounding amenities, while ensuring that monthly payments do not exceed 50% of household income [6] - For those with improvement needs, it is advisable to monitor upcoming policies that may lower costs associated with purchasing new homes, and to consider selling their current property before buying a new one [7] - Investors should shift their focus from speculative buying to long-term holding in core urban areas with population growth, relying on rental income to manage cash flow [8]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council's ninth plenary session emphasizes the need for strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand through urban renewal and the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - From January to July this year, real estate development investment, new residential sales area, sales revenue, and funds received by real estate developers all saw a year-on-year decline [1] - In July, the year-on-year decline in residential sales prices across 70 large and medium-sized cities narrowed, with 10 cities showing stable or rising prices compared to the previous month [1] - Hubei province reported a 5.8% year-on-year increase in new residential sales area from January to July, marking eight consecutive months of positive growth [1] Group 2: Policy Adjustments - Recent policy optimizations in various cities aim to reduce the burden on homebuyers and stimulate housing consumption, including adjustments to housing purchase restrictions and increased support for public housing loans [2] - The improvement in market expectations and buyer confidence is bolstered by breakthroughs in debt restructuring among several real estate companies, which may accelerate the risk mitigation process [2] Group 3: Urban Renewal Initiatives - The State Council's meeting calls for accelerated urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, which can enhance living conditions and serve as a significant economic growth driver [3] - The focus on urban renewal is expected to stimulate substantial improvement demand, with a push for high-quality housing that meets safety, comfort, and sustainability standards [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate industry is encouraged to optimize existing stock, enhance new supply, and improve quality to better meet the high-quality housing demands of the population [4]

Core Insights - The State Council's ninth plenary session emphasizes strong measures to stabilize the real estate market and stimulate demand through urban renewal and the renovation of dilapidated housing [1][3][4] - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a decline in real estate development investment, new housing sales area, sales volume, and funding for real estate companies from January to July this year, but some cities show signs of stability [1][2] - Various cities are optimizing housing policies to reduce the burden on homebuyers and boost housing consumption, which is expected to enhance market confidence [2][4] Group 1: Market Trends - From January to July, the sales area of new residential properties in Hubei province increased by 5.8%, marking eight consecutive months of positive growth, while second-hand housing transactions rose by 13.1% [1] - In July, the year-on-year decline in housing prices across 70 major cities narrowed, with 10 cities reporting stable or rising new housing prices compared to the previous month [1][2] Group 2: Policy Adjustments - Recent policy changes in cities like Beijing, Hainan, and Chengdu aim to ease purchasing restrictions and enhance financial support for homebuyers, thereby stimulating housing demand [2][3] - The ongoing debt restructuring efforts among real estate companies are expected to accelerate risk mitigation and restore market confidence [2] Group 3: Urban Renewal Initiatives - The government plans to accelerate the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, which is seen as a key driver for local economic growth and improvement of living conditions [3][4] - The focus on high-quality urban renewal is anticipated to unleash significant improvement demand, with an emphasis on creating safe, comfortable, and sustainable housing [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a series of strong real estate stimulus policies are being prepared to stabilize the market and enhance consumer confidence, which is crucial for economic recovery [1][3] - The government emphasizes the need for effective measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, indicating that previous policies have shown initial success, although further efforts are required [6][10] - Urban renewal and the renovation of old housing are highlighted as key components of the new phase of real estate development, shifting focus from large-scale demolition to improving existing structures, which can release significant housing demand [8][10] Group 2 - The government aims to stimulate improvement demand through various measures, including urban renewal and policies favoring multi-child families, which can create more opportunities for upgrading housing [10][12] - Adjustments in purchasing qualifications and costs for second or third homes are expected to provide unprecedented benefits to buyers, aligning with the current market needs [12] - The era of blindly investing in real estate is over, and buyers are advised to be cautious despite the favorable policies [12]

21世纪经济报道记者张敏 7月30日，中央政治局会议召开，并提出，落实好中央城市工作会议精神，高质量开展城市更新。 这是继本月中旬的中央城市工作会议后，最高层又一次对城市更新工作做出部署。 同一天，财政部部长蓝佛安在《学习时报》发表文章指出，以促消费为重点支持扩大内需，进一步释放 国内市场潜力。"支持加快构建房地产发展新模式，实施城市更新行动，促进房地产市场持续健康发 展。" 此前的7月17日，住房和城乡建设部在党组理论学习中心组学习(扩大)会议上强调，将城市更新置于更 突出位置，统筹实施好一系列民生工程、安全工程、发展工程。 今年以来，"城市更新"成为热词。在地方政府层面，四川省、长沙市、上海市也在推进城市更新方面有 所动作。比如，四川省于7月28日成立由华西集团全资控股的四川省城市更新集团。 随着我国城市发展从大规模增量扩张阶段转向存量提质增效为主的阶段，城市更新的重要性近一步提 升。分析人士指出，在政策推动下，未来将有更多城市对此做出部署，有关城市更新的机构建设和政策 支持，也有望加速出台。"城市更新"成热词 7月14日至15日，时隔近十年后，中央城市工作会议再度举行。会议指出，我国城镇化正从快速增长期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate industry [1]. Core Insights - The urbanization process in China has transitioned from a rapid growth phase to a stable development phase, with the urbanization rate reaching 67% in 2024, an increase of 6.76 percentage points from 60.24% in 2017 [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on improving the quality of existing urban areas rather than expanding into new ones. This includes the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing [2]. - The report suggests that the new real estate development model will involve a mechanism that links population needs with housing supply, optimizing the housing supply system to include both affordable housing and commercial properties [2]. - The report highlights the importance of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, with a target of adding 1 million units for such renovations by October 2024, which is expected to improve living conditions and enhance urban livability [2]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in leading real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group, among others, suggesting that these companies may benefit from lower financing costs and high market share in core areas [2]. Summary by Sections Urbanization Transition - The urbanization rate in China has increased to 67% in 2024, marking a significant rise from previous years [2]. - The focus has shifted from large-scale expansion to enhancing the quality of existing urban areas [2]. New Real Estate Development Model - The report outlines a new model that emphasizes the linkage between population needs and housing supply, aiming for a more efficient housing supply system [2]. - It suggests a dual approach to housing supply, integrating affordable housing with commercial real estate [2]. Urban Renovation Initiatives - The report mentions a goal of 1 million units for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations by October 2024, which is expected to improve urban living conditions [2]. - The renovation efforts are anticipated to release additional housing demand through appropriate monetary compensation schemes [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading real estate firms such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and Longfor Group for potential investment opportunities [2]. - It also suggests monitoring quality developers and property management companies for investment prospects [2].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban village and dilapidated housing renovation as a significant public welfare project, with local disciplinary inspection and supervision agencies enhancing oversight to ensure smooth project execution [2][4] - In Laixi City, Shandong Province, a comprehensive supervision chain has been established, focusing on responsibility enforcement, process supervision, and case handling, with a detailed supervision checklist covering 23 items across 8 categories [2][3] - In Qixian County, Henan Province, a special inspection team has been formed to monitor various stages of the renovation process, including qualification review, planning approval, construction supervision, and fund disbursement [2][3] Group 2 - The article highlights the implementation of embedded supervision and dynamic monitoring in Chongqing's Liangping District, utilizing big data comparison and participation in decision-making meetings to oversee key project stages [4] - The role of public supervision is emphasized, with local agencies encouraging community feedback and complaints to ensure transparency and accountability throughout the renovation process [4][5] - In Huangshi City, Hubei Province, a QR code system has been introduced for public supervision, allowing for quick resolution of issues related to project quality and safety measures [5]