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中国国贸(600007):经营北京优质商业,盈利稳定穿越周期
Guoxin Securities· 2025-06-18 09:32
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company operates high-quality commercial real estate in Beijing, demonstrating stable profitability through economic cycles [1][4] - Despite the overall downturn in the real estate development sector, the company's performance in property management remains relatively stable [16][19] - The company has a strong asset base with a healthy financial structure, allowing for consistent shareholder returns [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is based in the Beijing CBD and has developed the China International Trade Center over 40 years, covering an area of 170,000 square meters with a total construction area of 1.12 million square meters [1][34] - The controlling shareholder maintains an 80.65% stake, ensuring stability in ownership [1][38] Main Business - The company focuses on leasing and managing investment properties, including office buildings, shopping malls, hotels, and apartments [46][47] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 is projected at 3.9 billion yuan, with contributions from office buildings (39%), shopping malls (33%), hotels (13%), and other businesses [50] Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth since 2019, with a projected net profit of 1.26 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year increase [3][5] - The gross margin is expected to be 58.1%, and the net profit margin is projected at 32.3%, both improving since 2019 [3][5] Profitability and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain a stable profit scale and a strong dividend policy, with a payout ratio increasing from 39% in 2019 to 88% in 2024 [3][4] - The estimated fair price range for the company's stock is between 22.9 and 26.8 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 23% from the current price [4][6] Market Position - The company's office buildings have maintained stable rental rates and occupancy rates, outperforming the overall market for Grade A office buildings in Beijing [66][70] - The shopping mall is positioned as a luxury retail destination, ranking fifth nationally in sales, benefiting from high-end brand presence and a strong location [81][94]