制图：洪秋亮 西安商业新战事，正在中轴线上演。 "顶流"西安赛格国际购物中心人气不减，去年销售额破125亿元；奢牌扎堆的西安SKP持续"硬控"西北富豪，而1.5公里外的西安太古里，正在加紧建设 中；超级地标西安万象城横空出世…… 从十三朝古都到"网红城市"，西安不仅有强劲的文旅势能，亦是消费增长潜力巨大、高能商业地产玩家争相入局的西北商业热土。 形成时间可追溯至唐代、核心部分约20公里长的西安中轴线，浓缩了这座城市的千年变迁史、以及城市商业的盛衰之变。 据赢商研究中心统计，目前西安中轴线沿线商圈已开业商业项目40个，总体量376万㎡，汇聚高能级商场，为西安政府重点发展的商业中心地带。 聚光灯下的西安中轴线商业，竞争格局几何？各家生存之道是什么？未来的C位在哪儿？ 赢商研究中心通过多方调研，以及采访多位西安商业资深研究专家，全面剖析西安中轴线商业格局，力求解开商业的共性运营密码。 01. 西安中轴线商业底色 据笔者向多位西安商业资深研究专家采访，业内一致认为西安中轴线商业始于城墙内、以钟楼商圈为起点，随后依次向南、向北延伸，如今呈现出多点开 花格局。 以时间轴看，西安中轴线沿线的现代商业发展，可分为三个阶段： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Resources Land (01109) is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 25.9 billion, 26.7 billion, and 28.2 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.3, 8.1, and 7.7 times, respectively, and a "buy" rating is given for the first coverage [1] - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue from development sales and recurring business (operating real estate + light asset management + ecosystem elements) is expected to have a ratio of 2:8, with core net profit accounting for 4:6 [1] - The company focuses on high-energy cities for development sales, optimizing the sales investment financing structure, achieving a sales revenue of 110.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, but outperforming the market [1] Group 2 - The company leads in the operating real estate industry, with steady growth in light asset management and accelerated transformation in ecosystem elements [2] - In the first half of 2025, the retail sales of shopping malls increased by 20.2% year-on-year, same-store sales rose by 9.4%, and the occupancy rate reached 97.3%, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 9.9% in rental income [2] - The company plans to open 22 new shopping malls from 2025 to 2028, with nearly 90% of its shopping mall retail sales ranking in the top three locally, maintaining strong commercial influence [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Resources Land (01109.HK) with a target price of HKD 38.8 [2][8] Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of HKD 949.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 118.8 billion, up 16.2% year-on-year [2][8] - The core net profit contribution from recurring business is 60.2%, with a gross margin recovery in the development and sales business [8] - The company actively acquired land, maintaining a strong investment intensity, ranking among the top three in the industry [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at HKD 278.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.6%. However, a slight decline is expected in 2025 with a revenue forecast of HKD 277.8 billion, reflecting a decrease of 0.4% [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease to HKD 24.4 billion in 2025, down 4.7% from 2024 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at HKD 3.42, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.4 [4][8] Business Segment Analysis - The development and sales business accounted for 78% of total revenue, with a settlement income of HKD 743.6 billion, up 25.8% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 15.6%, an increase of 3.2 percentage points [8] - The recurring business generated revenue of HKD 205.6 billion, a 2.5% increase year-on-year, contributing 60.2% to the core net profit [8] - The shopping center segment showed stable growth, with retail sales reaching HKD 1,101.5 billion, a 20.2% increase year-on-year, and an operating profit margin of 65.9% [8] Investment Strategy - The company focuses on high-energy cities for land acquisition, with a projected increase in shopping center rental income to HKD 270 billion by 2028 [8] - The report adjusts the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 to HKD 3.42, HKD 3.72, and HKD 3.89 respectively, reflecting a cautious outlook on commercial operations [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company achieved a robust growth in core net profit, with a 100% distribution of core net profit. For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.52 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.03 billion RMB, up 7.4%. The core net profit reached 2.01 billion RMB, reflecting a 15% increase, indicating that the growth rate of core net profit outpaced revenue growth due to a 3.1 percentage point increase in gross margin to 37.1% [1][4] Summary by Sections Commercial Channel - The company solidified its leading position in shopping centers, with retail sales growth outpacing the overall retail sales growth. In the first half of 2025, the company opened 4 new shopping centers and signed 6 new light-asset projects, increasing the number of operational shopping centers to 125. The retail sales from operational shopping centers reached 122 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, significantly surpassing the overall retail sales growth of 5% [2] Property Channel - Urban space revenue grew rapidly, while community space revenue slightly declined due to value-added service revenue. In the first half of 2025, community space services generated revenue of 4.21 billion RMB, a decrease of 1.6%. The revenue from property management services increased by 8.8% to 3.5 billion RMB, while non-owner value-added services saw a decline due to reduced project deliveries and lower service prices [3] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.19 billion RMB, 21.21 billion RMB, and 23.26 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.17 billion RMB, 4.74 billion RMB, and 5.29 billion RMB for the same years. The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.83 RMB, 2.07 RMB, and 2.32 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18.7, 16.5, and 14.7 [4][5]

Group 1 - The chairman and general manager of Taihe Group, Huang Qisen, is under investigation for suspected illegal activities, leading to his detention by the Liaoning Provincial New Min City Supervisory Committee [2][5] - As of the announcement date (August 22), Taihe Group is facing asset freezes and seizures, which will impact its operations, although the company claims that its organizational structure and management system are functioning normally [2] - Taihe Group has been experiencing a liquidity crisis and deteriorating financial conditions in recent years, culminating in its delisting from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in August 2023 [8][9] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued an administrative penalty against Taihe Group for failing to disclose significant lawsuits and for major omissions in its annual reports from 2020 to 2022, resulting in a warning and a fine of 6 million yuan for the company and 3 million yuan for Huang Qisen [8] - Taihe Group was once a leading real estate company in Fujian, but it has faced significant challenges since 2018, including a debt default in July 2020, marking it as one of the first companies in the real estate sector to "explode" [9] - The company has developed several projects in Quanzhou, including the Shishi Taihe Plaza, which has faced asset disposal issues and was auctioned off with no bidders in June 2025 [11][15]

Core Viewpoint - Yuexiu REIT's performance reflects the current state of commercial real estate in mainland China, with a reported net loss primarily due to fair value impairment of investment properties [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yuexiu REIT achieved total revenue of 966 million yuan, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, with net property income of 679 million yuan, down 8.6% [1] - The net loss after tax was 337 million yuan, influenced by a decline in property valuations, which were 41.889 billion yuan compared to 42.308 billion yuan in the same period last year, a decrease of 1% [1] - The overall occupancy rate was stable at 82.2% as of June 30, with an average rental price of 187.5 yuan per square meter per month [1] Financing and Cost Management - Yuexiu REIT benefited from a declining interest rate environment, reducing financing costs to 403 million yuan, a 13.5% decrease year-on-year, saving 63 million yuan compared to the previous year [1] - The average interest rate for the first half was 3.92%, down 64 basis points year-on-year [1] Segment Performance - The office segment generated revenue of 532 million yuan, accounting for 55.02% of total revenue, with a 7.5% year-on-year increase in newly signed area [2] - The Guangzhou International Financial Center contributed significantly, with a renewal rate of 70% and a rapid absorption rate for well-furnished units [2] - Hotel operations saw revenue of 60.3 million yuan, a record high, with the Guangzhou Four Seasons Hotel achieving 190 million yuan in revenue and an occupancy rate of 80.1%, up 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] Strategic Initiatives - To adapt to market changes, Yuexiu REIT has established specialized teams to maintain occupancy rates, broaden leasing channels, and introduce products that meet market demand [3] - Upcoming opportunities include the opening of a duty-free shop in the Guangzhou International Financial Center and the hosting of the National Games, which are expected to boost performance [3] - Yuexiu REIT aims to enhance asset value and provide sustainable long-term returns to stakeholders through cautious optimism and strategic adjustments [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company operates high-quality commercial real estate in Beijing, demonstrating stable profitability through economic cycles [1][4] - Despite the overall downturn in the real estate development sector, the company's performance in property management remains relatively stable [16][19] - The company has a strong asset base with a healthy financial structure, allowing for consistent shareholder returns [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is based in the Beijing CBD and has developed the China International Trade Center over 40 years, covering an area of 170,000 square meters with a total construction area of 1.12 million square meters [1][34] - The controlling shareholder maintains an 80.65% stake, ensuring stability in ownership [1][38] Main Business - The company focuses on leasing and managing investment properties, including office buildings, shopping malls, hotels, and apartments [46][47] - The revenue breakdown for 2024 is projected at 3.9 billion yuan, with contributions from office buildings (39%), shopping malls (33%), hotels (13%), and other businesses [50] Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth since 2019, with a projected net profit of 1.26 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 0.3% year-on-year increase [3][5] - The gross margin is expected to be 58.1%, and the net profit margin is projected at 32.3%, both improving since 2019 [3][5] Profitability and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain a stable profit scale and a strong dividend policy, with a payout ratio increasing from 39% in 2019 to 88% in 2024 [3][4] - The estimated fair price range for the company's stock is between 22.9 and 26.8 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 5% to 23% from the current price [4][6] Market Position - The company's office buildings have maintained stable rental rates and occupancy rates, outperforming the overall market for Grade A office buildings in Beijing [66][70] - The shopping mall is positioned as a luxury retail destination, ranking fifth nationally in sales, benefiting from high-end brand presence and a strong location [81][94]

投资力度回升，拿地销售比回升至0.23；归母净利连续三年亏损。 ◎ 作者 / 沈晓玲、陈家凤 核 心 观 点 【 杭州、西安销售额贡献超4成，京沪降幅靠前】 2024年大悦城控股实现销售额369亿，同比下滑20%； 销售权益比例44.5%，较去年同期减少5.5pct ， 需警惕合作方风险。据年报披露的销售明细显示， 全年86%销售额由一二线贡献 ，杭州、西安销售额贡献超4成，北京、上海和天津等地合计销售贡献约 14亿元，单城销售降幅均超70%，表现相对疲软。 【 投资力度回升，拿地销售比升至0.23】 2024年大悦城控股投资力度回升，新增5宗地块，拿地建面56万平，基于2023年低基数的影响， 同比大幅增加 232%， 土地总价款84亿， 同比增幅约33% ，按金额计 拿地销售比从去年的0.14回升至0.23 。年内投资的杭州萧山区世纪城钱塘湾总部住宅地块，全年 单盘贡献约91亿，成为大悦城全国销冠，然而该项目楼面价占到售价的65%，盈利空间被压缩。未来需做好地块流量和盈利之间的平衡，才能修复长期盈 利水平。2024年末大悦城剩余可开发计容建面 1 822万方，较年初下滑16%，足够支撑未来3-4年左右的开 ...

Core Viewpoints - In 2024, Dayuecheng Holdings achieved a sales revenue of 36.9 billion, a year-on-year decline of 20%, with a sales rights ratio of 44.5%, down 5.5 percentage points from the previous year, indicating potential risks from partners [2][6] - The investment intensity has rebounded, with a land acquisition-to-sales ratio rising to 0.23, driven by a significant increase in land purchases, totaling 8.4 billion, up approximately 33% year-on-year [2][16] - The company has faced continuous net losses for three consecutive years, with a net loss of 2.98 billion in 2024, exacerbated by expanded losses from joint ventures [3][26] Sales Performance - Sales in Hangzhou and Xi'an contributed over 40% of total sales, with significant declines in Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin, where single-city sales dropped over 70% [2][10][13] - The Yangtze River Delta region became the largest contributor, accounting for 43% of total sales, an increase of 18.6 percentage points year-on-year [8][10] Investment and Land Acquisition - Dayuecheng Holdings increased its investment efforts, acquiring five new land parcels with a total area of 560,000 square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 232% [2][19] - The average floor price of the newly acquired residential land in Hangzhou was 32,250 yuan per square meter, which accounted for 65% of the selling price, compressing profit margins [20] Financial Performance - The total revenue for 2024 was 35.79 billion, a slight decline of 2.7%, with property development revenue at 28.39 billion, down 2.3% [26][33] - The gross profit decreased by 20% to 7.79 billion, with a gross margin of 21.8%, down 4.7 percentage points year-on-year [26][33] Operational Efficiency - The average financing cost improved to 4.06%, with a non-restricted cash-to-short-term debt ratio dropping to 0.98, indicating liquidity risks [28] - The company successfully opened three shopping centers, with an average occupancy rate of 95.1% across 44 commercial projects [4][31]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Insights - The company is a rare diversified real estate developer in China, with financial, operational, and brand advantages that have helped improve its sales ranking despite market challenges. The company has ample and high-quality land reserves, ensuring stable future sales. The pressure from impairments has been relatively well-managed, and new land acquisitions are expected to be profitable, indicating solid performance and high realization rates [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 278.8 billion (up 11.0%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 25.6 billion (down 18.5%). The core net profit was 25.42 billion (down 8.5%), with a comprehensive gross margin of 21.6% (down 3.5 percentage points) and a dividend payout ratio of 36.9%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.6% [6][9]. Sales and Market Position - The company’s total sales for 2024 were 261.1 billion (down 15.0%), with a market share increase to 2.7%, marking its entry into the top three in the industry. In 2024, the company acquired 29 projects with a total investment of 77.58 billion (down 56.1%), indicating a conservative approach in the first half of the year but a quicker investment pace as the market improved towards the end of the year [6][9]. Operational Efficiency - As a leader in commercial real estate, the company has a strong competitive edge in various aspects such as layout, leasing, operations, and luxury retail. In 2024, the retail sales from shopping centers reached 195.3 billion (up 19.2%), with rental income of 19.3 billion (up 8.4%). The company plans to open six new shopping centers annually from 2025 to 2028, increasing the total to 116 by the end of 2028 [2][6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable outlook for future performance, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 26.2 billion, 27.0 billion, and 28.2 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2%, 3%, and 5%. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 6.4, 6.2, and 6.0 [2][6].