智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，因供应充足，中国内地写字楼市场前景充满挑战，同时有更多明 确信号指出，香港写字楼市场正在复苏。 随着2026至2027年供应量下降，尤其在中环地区，瑞银认 为，香港中环的甲级写字楼市场正接近见底，相信香港写字楼市场的复苏将继续惠及拥有香港甲级写字 楼业务的股票，包括太古地产(01972)、太古股份公司A(00019)、置地公司、希慎兴业(00014)和恒基地 产(00012) 。 瑞银续指，根据世邦魏理仕(CBRE)的数据，上海写字楼租金第三季按季下降0.8%。期 内，由于两栋新办大楼完工，上海写字楼供应量增加了11.6万平方米，而净吸纳量按季增长6.7%至10万 平方米。未来六个月，瑞银预计将有82万平方米的新供应进入市场;并预计因明后两年供应充足，上海 写字楼租金明年将继续下降。 该信息由智通财经网提供 ...

一方面，近年来，战略性新兴产业蓬勃发展，生物医药、低空经济、新能源汽车等产业规模的不断壮大，直接推动了研发 实验室、特色产业园、厂房建设等空间载体的定制化需求大幅增长，商业地产运营商应勇于抓住这一波新需求，发挥自身优 势，加快构建能够满足这类产业需求的商业模式，助力相关产业落地。 另一方面，数字经济基础设施扩张，带动数据中心、算力中心以及智慧生态办公等新型基建需求激增，这将导致相关地产 投资规模大幅增加，甚至高达万亿元，这是增量市场的巨大商机。例如，开发商建设写字楼时，应摒弃传统单一办公业态的设 计理念，转而根据客户需求构建"研发+中试+展示"三位一体空间，甚至可以与当地相关部门加强互动，搭建一站式服务平台， 从最基础的工商财税服务，到全面的IT支持，再到更多的个性化增值服务，都涵盖其中，以此提升运营服务的软实力。 角色二：多元业态融合"商业体"。 过去，商业地产的主流商业模式是建房子、租房子、卖房子，如今这类发展模式已难以适应市场需求。随着智慧城市、城 市群以及区域经济圈发展进入新阶段，小到一座城市，大到一个囊括诸多城市的经济带，其发展潜力均取决于融合了多少"智 慧"。 ■王丽新 当前，各地均在加紧谋划"十 ...

Core Viewpoint - Beijing has set a new record for land prices with the recent acquisition of a plot in Dongcheng District by Beijing Urban Construction Group for 2.028 billion yuan, marking a 4% premium and a floor price of 81,100 yuan per square meter, surpassing the previous record of 102,300 yuan per square meter set by the China Overseas Land project [3][4]. Group 1: Land Acquisition Details - The plot consists of four smaller parcels, with a total area of 2.27 hectares and a planned above-ground construction area of 25,000 square meters, resulting in a low floor area ratio of only 1.1 [5]. - The residential floor price reached 103,600 yuan per square meter, indicating significant interest in high-end residential developments despite a challenging market [3][9]. - The bidding process involved intense competition, with China Overseas Land ultimately withdrawing after nearly 40 rounds of bidding [3][4]. Group 2: Land Characteristics and Development Potential - The site is strategically located near the Temple of Heaven, enhancing its desirability due to its historical significance and urban location [3][9]. - The 0202 parcel is particularly noteworthy as it is planned for traditional courtyard houses, which are rare in the area, and must adhere to strict architectural guidelines to maintain the historical character of the neighborhood [9][13]. - The overall development plan includes a mix of residential and non-residential properties, with specific restrictions on sales, indicating a focus on maintaining the integrity of the community [14][16]. Group 3: Market Implications - The successful acquisition and planned development of the site reflect ongoing demand for luxury residential properties in Beijing, despite broader market challenges [3][4]. - The pricing dynamics suggest that high-end developments can still command premium prices, with potential sales prices for the courtyard houses projected at around 15 million yuan per square meter, leading to total prices of approximately 375 million yuan for entire units [17]. - The unique characteristics of the land, including its historical context and the planned architectural style, may attract affluent buyers looking for exclusive properties in Beijing [9][13].

其他市场方面，印度于今年第三季表现亮眼，录得26亿美元成交额，创下该国历来单季最高纪录，同比 飙升511%，年初至今则增长131%至47亿美元。日本继续领跑亚太区商业地产市场，第三季投资额同比 上升23%至103亿美元，带动年初至今总额达316亿美元，较去年同期增长23%。 第三季写字楼资产总成交额同比大幅上升53%至178亿美元，带动年初至今总额同比上升36%至475亿美 元，成为最受投资者青睐的资产类别。韩国录得六宗金额超过2.5亿美元的大型交易；而日本市场气氛 向好，外资顺势进行策略性减持。工业及物流资产总成交额为71亿美元，虽然同比下跌38%，但按季回 升13%，主要受主要市场收益率收窄所带动。 住宅市场持续展现强劲增长动能，第三季成交额同比激增304%至50亿美元，带动年初至今总额同比上 升137%至110亿美元。日本多户型住宅市场仍为主要增长引擎，机构投资者及包括Weave Living在内的 投资平台积极扩展资产组合。新加坡方面，胜捷(Centurion)首次公开招股及后续收购活动为员工宿舍市 场注入增长动能。 第三季跨境投资资金流达到历史新高，同比上升60%至120亿美元，带动年初至今总额同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall transaction volume of commercial properties in Hong Kong has shown a significant recovery in the first ten months of 2025, with a total of 3,700 contracts registered, indicating a 8.0% increase compared to the entire year of 2024, and reaching 92.5% of the total value from the previous year [1] Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, the total number of commercial property transactions reached 3,700, with a total value of HKD 531.88 billion, surpassing the 2024 total of 3,425 transactions [1] - The estimated total transactions for the year are projected to reach approximately 4,300, marking the highest level since 2022 [1] - The recovery is attributed to the peak of interest rates, gradual economic recovery, rising stock market, and significant price adjustments in commercial properties [1] Group 2: Office Market - The office sector, including hotels, recorded 861 transactions valued at HKD 217.43 billion in the first ten months of 2025, representing a 71.2% increase in volume and a 1.1 times increase in value compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The number of transactions in the office sector has also increased by 32.7% and 40.3% compared to the total for the previous year [2] - Notable high-value transactions include the sale of a commercial building in Central for HKD 56.5 billion and a hotel for HKD 18.7 billion [2] Group 3: Industrial Market - The industrial sector recorded 1,939 transactions valued at HKD 134.06 billion in the first ten months of 2025, marking a 33.9% increase in volume and a 1.8% increase in value compared to the same period last year [2] - This figure also represents a 6.8% increase compared to the total transactions for the previous year [2] - A significant transaction involved the sale of warehouses in Tsuen Wan for HKD 4.76 billion [2] Group 4: Retail Market - The retail sector recorded 895 transactions valued at HKD 139.37 billion in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting an 18.7% increase in volume but a 5.1% decrease in value compared to the same period last year [3] - The total number of transactions has reached 93.7% of the previous year's total, while the value has reached 75.3% [3] - The decline in value is attributed to a high base from a significant transaction last year [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the demand for office leasing is expected to shift further towards the technology sector, driven by the latest "14th Five-Year Plan" focusing on enhancing new productivity and the expansion of AI and new energy sectors [1][5]. Demand Analysis - According to data from DTZ, the demand for Grade A office space in first-tier cities remains highly concentrated, with TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), professional services, and finance as the dominant sectors [2]. - In Beijing, the TMT sector accounts for 41.9% of the leasing market, while Shanghai and Guangzhou focus more on professional services, with TMT and finance also being significant [2]. - Shenzhen exhibits a diversified industry structure, with TMT, accommodation and catering, finance, professional services, and energy sectors each exceeding 10% of the market [2]. Leasing Activity - A summary of leasing activities from September to October 2025 shows significant entries from technology-related companies, including Nova Fusion and Salted Fish Technology in Shanghai [3][4]. - The financial sector is also active, with notable entries in Guangzhou's Tian De Plaza, which houses over 200 financial institutions, creating a financial ecosystem [4]. Investment Trends - In Q3 2025, the total transaction value in Shanghai's investment market rose by 78.1% to 14.97 billion, with office assets leading in both transaction value and number [6]. - The report highlights that core location, resilient industries, and quality management of office assets will continue to be crucial for capital investment [6]. Transaction Insights - The report details several significant transactions, including the sale of a 50% stake in Yuexiu Financial Tower for 1.717 billion, allowing the seller to retain control while optimizing financial structure [8]. - A notable transaction involved the acquisition of Shanghai's Bo Hua Plaza for over 10 billion, showcasing the scarcity of core assets [9]. Market Dynamics - The investment approach is shifting towards collaborative fund models, allowing multiple parties to share ownership and operational responsibilities, enhancing asset value collectively [9]. - The report notes a decline in the number and total value of transactions in the mainland commercial property market, indicating a cautious approach towards non-core city assets [10]. Asset Transformation - The transaction of the Sunshine City Headquarters Tower exemplifies the trend of repurposing commercial assets, with plans to convert it into a mixed-use development, aligning with current market demands [11]. - Shanghai's recent policies encourage the integration of various functions within commercial buildings, reflecting a shift from high-end exclusivity to more versatile uses [12][13].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui are selling off assets, reflecting contrasting market sentiments [2][9][12] Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 marked the strongest performance for Hong Kong's office market in seven years, with a net absorption of 691,800 square feet, the highest since Q3 2018 [2] - All major commercial districts recorded positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015, indicating a robust recovery [2] Vacancy Rates - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A office spaces improved to 17.1% by the end of September, a quarterly decline of 0.3 percentage points, the largest drop since Q3 2018 [3] - Despite high vacancy levels, the market is showing signs of recovery, with new leasing activity reaching 3.3 million square feet, comparable to 2019 levels [3] Demand Drivers - The resurgence in the office market is driven by a booming IPO market and the rise of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies accelerating their office space negotiations [4][5] - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising over HKD 189.3 billion, contributing to increased demand for office space [5] Rental Trends - Core areas like Central are seeing strong demand for premium office spaces, with a net absorption of 138,000 square feet in Q3, the highest in a decade, while vacancy rates are declining [6][7] - Rental prices in Central have remained relatively stable, with only a slight decline of 0.3%, contrasting with an overall market decline of 0.8% [6][7] New Market Participants - Mainland companies are emerging as significant players in the Hong Kong office market, with Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a major property in Causeway Bay being a notable example [9][10] - Demand from mainland clients for Grade A office spaces, particularly in core areas, is strong and growing [10] Market Challenges - Despite new entrants, the overall recovery of the market is expected to take time, with a projected increase in office occupancy rates by 2027-2028 due to a significant reduction in new supply [11] - The current market faces challenges such as oversupply, with a vacancy rate of approximately 19% and a substantial new supply of 3.3 million square feet this year [12]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui are selling off assets, reflecting contrasting market sentiments [2][9]. Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 marked the strongest performance for Hong Kong's office market in seven years, with a net absorption of 691,800 square feet, the highest since Q3 2018 [3]. - All major commercial districts recorded positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015, indicating a robust recovery [3]. - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A office spaces improved to 17.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [3]. Rental Trends - Despite high vacancy rates, rental prices have dropped significantly, with current office rents down 43% compared to Q1 and Q2 2019, prompting companies to consider expansion or relocation [3]. - In Central, the net absorption reached 138,000 square feet, the highest quarterly figure in a decade, with a slight rental decline of 0.3%, outperforming the overall market [6][7]. Demand Drivers - The resurgence in the office market is driven by a booming IPO market and the growth of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies leading the demand for office space [4][5]. - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising over HKD 189.3 billion, which has bolstered confidence in the market [5]. Emerging Trends - New players, particularly mainland Chinese companies, are becoming significant contributors to the Hong Kong office market, as evidenced by Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a major property for HKD 7.2 billion [9][10]. - The demand for Grade A office spaces from mainland enterprises is notably strong, especially in core areas like Central [10]. Market Challenges - Despite the positive trends, the overall market recovery is still uncertain, with a projected decrease in new office supply in 2026, which may lead to a gradual increase in occupancy rates by 2027-2028 [10][11]. - The current rental yield for Hong Kong offices is around 4%, which is less attractive compared to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of approximately 4.08%, making it less appealing for risk-averse investors [11]. Conclusion - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is navigating a complex landscape of recovery, characterized by a dichotomy between new economic players and traditional investors, each making strategic decisions based on their unique perspectives [12].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily, while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui Holdings are selling off assets, reflecting contrasting market sentiments [1][2][8] Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 marked the strongest performance for Hong Kong's office market in seven years, with a net absorption of 691,800 square feet, the highest since Q3 2018 [2] - All major commercial districts recorded positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015, indicating a robust recovery [2] - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices improved to 17.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [2] Demand Drivers - The resurgence in the office market is primarily driven by a booming IPO market and the rise of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies accelerating their office space negotiations [3][7] - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising a total of HKD 189.3 billion, contributing to increased confidence in the market [3] Rental Trends - Core areas like Central are seeing strong demand, with a net absorption of 138,000 square feet in Q3, the highest in a decade, while vacancy rates are declining [5][6] - In contrast, non-core areas like Kowloon East have a vacancy rate of 23.7%, indicating a stark divide in market performance [6] New Entrants - Mainland companies are emerging as significant players in the Hong Kong office market, with Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a major property in Causeway Bay being a notable example [8] - Demand from mainland clients for Grade A offices, particularly in core areas, is on the rise, with these companies accounting for a substantial portion of the client base in flexible office spaces [8] Market Challenges - Despite the positive trends, the overall recovery of the market is still uncertain, with a projected decrease in new supply leading to a gradual increase in occupancy rates by 2027-2028 [9] - The current rental yield for Hong Kong offices is around 4%, which is less attractive compared to U.S. Treasury yields, limiting investor interest [9][10] - The market faces an oversupply issue, with a current vacancy rate of approximately 19% and a significant amount of new space needing time to be absorbed [10]

Core Views - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October has implications for the Chinese economy, particularly in the real estate market, affecting both living expenses and investment decisions [1] - Unlike previous cycles of broad monetary easing, this rate cut leads to differentiated benefits for households and a rebalancing of asset allocation, necessitating a dual focus on real-life impacts and rational investment judgments [1] Impact on Homebuyers - For ordinary homebuyers, the primary benefit of the rate cut is the significant reduction in mortgage costs, with the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropping to 6.17%, the lowest since early October 2024, and domestic rates in some cities falling to around 3% [3] - A forecasted reduction of 10-15 basis points in the 5-year LPR over the next 3-6 months could lead to a monthly payment decrease of approximately 140 yuan for a 1 million yuan mortgage, saving over 50,000 yuan in total interest over 30 years [3] - However, the decline in rates is not a universal solution for stimulating demand, as real demand remains at a low point, influenced by internal factors such as insufficient income expectations and employment stability concerns [3] Investment Trends - The declining yields on traditional savings products are pushing funds towards higher-yield assets, with real estate being a key focus, although the attractiveness varies significantly based on asset quality [5] - Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association indicates a 111% year-on-year increase in refinancing applications and a 20% rise in home loan applications in the U.S., reflecting a similar trend in the domestic market, albeit with concentrated capital flows [5] - Investment strategies are increasingly directed towards core assets in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, with Shanghai's new residential prices rising by 0.4% month-on-month, indicating resilience in core asset values [5] Risks in Non-Core Assets - Investment risks in non-core assets are rising, with second-hand home prices in third and fourth-tier cities dropping by 5.8% from January to August 2025, and some properties losing half their peak value, leading to extended sales cycles [7] - The commercial real estate sector also shows a divide, with vacancy rates in core business districts stable at around 12%, while those in third and fourth-tier cities exceed 25%, making returns on investment uncertain [7] - The most significant positive signal from the Fed's rate cut for the Chinese real estate market is the release of domestic monetary policy space, although the central bank remains committed to avoiding large-scale capital inflows into real estate, focusing instead on stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and market expectations [7] Strategic Recommendations - For the public, it is essential to understand the market dynamics: first-time buyers should leverage the interest rate decline in core cities, while those seeking to upgrade should focus on product quality and regional value [7] - Investors are advised to abandon the "buy and hold" mentality and adopt a "selective asset" approach, concentrating on quality residential properties and income-generating assets in cities with net population inflows and industrial upgrades [7]