我们看好洛阳钼业的价值提升。1）看好铜、金价上行周期；2）公司是铜矿行业国内龙头、成长性较 好；3）公司新增重点布局品种-黄金，或迎来"铜"估值向"铜+金"估值的转变。我们维持"买入"评级。 刚果金铜矿25 年产量兑现超预期，扩产规划清晰据公司公告《2025 年度业绩预增公告》、《第七届董 事会第九次临时会议决议公告》（26-1-16）：公司25Q4 实现归母净利57-65 亿元，较25Q3 56亿元环比 有所增长，或与铜等金属价格环比上涨有关，25Q4 LME 铜价环比+13.2%至11092 美元/吨。公司通过技 改提升生产效率，铜产量连续4 个季度上升，25Q1-4 分别为17.1/18.3/19.0/19.8 万吨，全年铜产量达74 万吨，显著超过公司指引60-66 万吨；公司规划26 年铜产量进一步提升76-82 万吨。公司亦积极推进 KFM 二期建设，预计27 年投产后新增铜产量10 万吨/年，亦规划TFM 扩产项目，向28 年实现铜产量 80-100 万吨目标迈进。 转型"铜+金"双轮驱动，加速布局黄金板块 看好铜、金价上行周期 黄金方面（参考华泰金属《供需改善或成金属行业26 年主基调》（25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, considering the current upward trend in metal prices [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 9.246 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 42.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.596 billion yuan, up 48.43% year-on-year [1]. - The production of gold, silver, lead concentrate, and zinc concentrate in the first half of 2025 was 3.7 tons, 61.8 tons, 4,354 tons, and 7,917 tons respectively, with gold and silver production slightly down but overall sales exceeding production [2]. - The company plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and optimize its capital structure [3]. Financial Performance - The average gold price in Q2 2025 was 3,281 USD/ounce, a 40.3% increase year-on-year, while the average silver price was 33.68 USD/ounce, up 16.8% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin for the gold and silver segments was 79.15% and 55.20% respectively, reflecting an increase of 7.26 and 6.03 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company forecasts net profits of 3.646 billion yuan, 4.173 billion yuan, and 5.502 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 9 [4][5].