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东方财富证券:铜价韧性凸显 继续看好后市机会
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-05 09:22
Group 1: Copper - Copper prices remain resilient, with LME copper at $133,370/ton and SHFE copper at $103,680/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +3.5% and +2.3% respectively [1][9] - The import copper concentrate TC is at -$50.0/ton, down by $0.5/ton week-on-week, indicating tight supply in the copper market [1][9] - Southern Copper Corporation anticipates a decline in copper production over the next two years due to lower ore grades, projecting 911,400 tons in 2026 and slightly above 900,000 tons in 2027, both lower than 954,300 tons in 2025 [1][9] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum is priced at $3,110/ton and SHFE aluminum at $24,560/ton, with a week-on-week change of -2.0% and +1.1% respectively [2][10] - The SMM aluminum processing enterprises' operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 59.4% week-on-week [2][10] - SHFE aluminum inventory increased to 21.7 million tons, up by 2.0% week-on-week, indicating seasonal demand decline influenced by the Spring Festival [2][10] Group 3: Precious Metals - SHFE gold is priced at 1,161.4 yuan/gram and COMEX gold at $4,907.5/ounce, with week-on-week changes of +4.1% and -1.5% respectively [3][11] - The nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman, who supports lower interest rates, may influence precious metal prices, which have shown volatility [3][11] - The focus is on potential investment opportunities after price stabilization in the precious metals market [3][11] Group 4: Minor Metals - Tungsten concentrate prices rose to 601,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of +12.3% [4][12] - The prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide are at 750,000 yuan/ton, up by +11.3%, while dysprosium oxide decreased by -2.1% [4][12] - The domestic antimony ingot price is at 165,000 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of +1.2% [4][12] Group 5: Steel - SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are at 3,128 yuan/ton and 3,288 yuan/ton, with week-on-week changes of -0.4% and -0.5% respectively [5][13] - Total steel supply reached 8.2317 million tons, up by 35,800 tons week-on-week, while total inventory increased to 12.7851 million tons, up by 214,300 tons [5][13] - Southern steel mills are adjusting pricing strategies for construction steel to improve profit margins, indicating enhanced industry self-discipline [5][13] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - For the copper sector, companies with rich copper resources such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining are recommended [6][14] - In the precious metals sector, companies like Zijin Gold International, Shandong Gold, and China Gold International are suggested for investment [6][14] - The aluminum sector recommends companies such as Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and China Aluminum [7][15] - For minor metals, focus on rare earth companies like Northern Rare Earth and domestic antimony producers [7][15] - In the steel sector, companies with strong product structures like Baosteel and Hesteel are highlighted [7][15]