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渤海证券研究所晨会纪要(2025.07.30)-20250730
BOHAI SECURITIES· 2025-07-30 01:35
Fixed Income Research - The report indicates that the overall issuance guidance rates for credit bonds have mostly decreased, with a change range of -5 BP to 2 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds has increased on a month-on-month basis, with net financing amounts for medium-term notes and short-term financing bonds rising, while corporate bonds, company bonds, and targeted tools saw a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds has increased, with all varieties showing growth; however, credit bond yields have risen by 4-14 BP [2] - The report suggests that despite the recent yield adjustments, the conditions for a trend reversal in credit bonds remain insufficient, but the support from insufficient supply and strong demand may lead to a potential decline in yields [2] - The report emphasizes a cautious yet optimistic approach to current configurations and trading strategies, focusing on the trends in interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - In the steel sector, prices have rebounded, leading to some replenishment intentions downstream, with macro "anti-involution" news positively impacting steel prices [5] - The aluminum market is expected to experience price fluctuations due to insufficient fundamental support, with attention on the outcomes of the July Politburo meeting and US-China trade negotiations [5] - Lithium prices have been positively influenced by "anti-involution" news, but there is still significant pressure from oversupply, necessitating caution regarding speculative demand [5] - The rare earth sector has seen a significant increase in exports, with June exports rising by 32.02% month-on-month, indicating potential for further price strength due to improving export demand [5] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [6]