记者：刘羽佳 编导：唐子晔 新华社音视频部制作 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王頔】 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the selection directions and application guidelines for provincial and ministerial-level research topics by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), emphasizing the importance of high-quality development and risk prevention in the capital market [3][4]. Group 1: Guiding Principles - The research should align with Xi Jinping's thoughts and the spirit of the 20th National Congress, focusing on risk prevention, regulatory strengthening, and promoting high-quality development in the capital market [3]. - The aim is to enhance the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, addressing significant issues through collaborative research [3]. Group 2: Research Topics - Key research topics include improving corporate governance under the new Company Law, binding mechanisms between public funds and investor interests, and innovations in pension financial investment mechanisms [4][5]. - Other topics cover the impact of AI on investor behavior, enhancing regulatory capabilities in an open environment, and improving pricing efficiency in the capital market [4][5]. Group 3: Application Conditions - Research topics should be led by one or two units, with diverse participation from top think tanks, universities, and market institutions, excluding individual applicants [5]. - Leading units must possess the necessary talent and resources to complete the research, including organizing the research team and ensuring confidentiality of sensitive content [5]. Group 4: Application Timeline - The deadline for submitting research proposals is March 31, 2026, with specific submission requirements outlined for clarity [6]. - Applicants must ensure the quality of submissions and avoid duplicate applications for similar topics [6]. Group 5: Management Arrangements - The typical research duration is 6-12 months, with a maximum extension of 6 months allowed under specific circumstances [7]. - The CSRC's designated research institution will manage the progress and quality of the research projects, conducting regular checks and evaluations [8]. Group 6: Other Matters - All research directions do not represent regulatory guidance from the CSRC but serve as a reserve for research [9].

Macro and Strategy Research - The report highlights that public fiscal expenditure in 2025 focused on livelihood, technology, and environmental protection, with total public budget revenue at 21,604.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%, while expenditure reached 28,739.5 billion yuan, an increase of 1% [2] - The government fund budget revenue was 5,770.4 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 11.3% to 11,287.4 billion yuan [2] - Public fiscal income showed a negative growth primarily due to non-tax revenue, while tax revenue achieved positive growth, with major tax categories (VAT, corporate income tax, and personal income tax) transitioning from negative to positive growth [3] - Public fiscal expenditure in the livelihood sector accounted for over 38% of total expenditure, significantly higher than the average of the past five years, with a notable increase in technology spending [4] - The completion ratio for the national general public budget revenue was 98.3%, lower than the average of the past five years, while the expenditure completion ratio was 96.8% [4] Manufacturing Sector Analysis - The manufacturing PMI for January 2026 was reported at 49.3%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with both production and new orders indices declining [8] - The production index fell by 1.1 percentage points to 50.6%, while the new orders index dropped by 1.6 percentage points to 49.2%, reflecting insufficient effective demand [9] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also decreased to 49.4%, with the construction sector experiencing a significant drop due to seasonal factors [10] - The comprehensive PMI output index fell to 49.8%, entering the contraction zone, primarily due to the decline in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [10] Fund Research - The report notes that the public fund market experienced significant outflows, with a net outflow of 298.1 billion yuan from the ETF market, particularly from stock ETFs [12] - The average performance of equity funds showed a decline, with quantitative funds experiencing the largest drop of 1.10% [13] - New fund issuance increased, with 45 new funds launched, raising a total of 48.27 billion yuan, indicating a slight recovery in market interest [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the market review from January 26 to January 30, 2026, most major equity market indices declined, with the Small and Medium - sized Board Index experiencing the largest drop of 3.78%. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries rose, with the top five gainers being petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery; the top five decliners were national defense and military industry, electrical equipment, automobiles, computers, and comprehensive industries [1][12]. - In the public fund market, the CSRC solicited public opinions on the "Content and Format of Regular Reports of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds" and the Asset Management Association of China officially established the performance comparison benchmark element library for public funds. In terms of fund performance, quantitative funds in equity funds had the largest decline, with an average drop of 1.10% and a positive return ratio of 24.74%; fixed - income + funds averaged a 0.20% decline with a positive return ratio of 35.23%; pure - bond funds averaged a 0.03% increase with a positive return ratio of 84.81%; pension target FOFs averaged an 0.81% increase with a positive return ratio of 94.97%. QDII funds averaged a 0.77% increase with a positive return ratio of 63.95%. Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and food and beverages last week, while reducing positions in pharmaceutical biology, electronics, and household appliances. As of January 30, 2026, the position of actively managed equity funds was 73.88%, a decrease of 1.07 pct from the previous period [1][2]. - In the ETF market, last week, the overall ETF market had a net capital outflow of 298.095 billion yuan, with the outflow scale narrowing slightly compared to the previous period. Stock - type ETFs had the largest net outflow of 317.982 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market reached 635.407 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 225.627 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 9.11%. Chemical, gold, non - ferrous metals, and convertible bond sectors were the main capital inflow varieties, while broad - based indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and CSI Small - cap 500 continued to see large - scale capital outflows, with the capital outflow of the CSI 300 index exceeding 240 billion yuan [3][50]. - Regarding fund issuance, last week, 45 new funds were issued, 5 more than the previous period; 47 new funds were established, 5 more than the previous period. New funds raised a total of 48.272 billion yuan, an increase of 3.818 billion yuan from the previous period [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Domestic Market Conditions - From January 26 to January 30, 2026, most major equity market indices declined, with the Small and Medium - sized Board Index dropping 3.78%, the largest decline. Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries rose, and the top five gainers and decliners were as mentioned above. In the bond market, the ChinaBond Composite Full - Price Index remained unchanged, while the ChinaBond Treasury Bond, Financial Bond, and Credit Bond Total Full - Price Indices fluctuated from a 0.03% decline to a 0.05% increase, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index dropped 2.61%. In the commodity market, the Nanhua Commodity Index rose 2.60% [12]. 1.2 European, American and Asian - Pacific Market Conditions - Last week, most major indices in European, American, and Asian - Pacific markets declined. In the US stock market, the S&P 500 index rose 0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.39%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.17%. In the European market, the French CAC40 fell 0.20% and the German DAX fell 1.45%. In the Asian - Pacific market, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.38% and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.97% [20]. 1.3 Market Valuation Conditions - Last week, the valuation quantiles of most major market indices declined. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratios, the SSE 50 had the highest increase of 5.7 pct. In terms of the historical quantiles of price - to - book ratios, the SSE 50 also had the highest increase of 2.5 pct. Among industries, the top five industries with the highest historical quantiles of price - to - earnings ratios in the Shenwan primary index were real estate, electronics, chemicals, commercial trade, and comprehensive industries. The lowest five were non - bank finance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverages, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biology [23]. 2. Active Public Fund Conditions Market Hotspots - The CSRC solicited public opinions on the "Content and Format of Regular Reports of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", integrating and revising relevant regulations to strengthen industry transparency and protect the legitimate rights and interests of fund share - holders. The Asset Management Association of China also solicited industry opinions on the "XBRL Template for Information Disclosure of Securities Investment Funds", which requires adding long - term performance data and other information [31][32]. - The Asset Management Association of China officially established the performance comparison benchmark element library for public funds, including 155 indices in total, with adjustments in the number of indices and operation rules [33]. Fund Performance - As mentioned above, different types of funds had different performance, and the top - performing funds in each category last week and this year were also listed [39][40][43]. Industry Positions of Actively Managed Equity Funds - Last week, actively managed equity funds increased their positions in non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and food and beverages, and reduced positions in pharmaceutical biology, electronics, and household appliances. As of January 30, 2026, the position of actively managed equity funds was 73.88%, a decrease of 1.07 pct from the previous period [45][46]. 3. ETF Fund Conditions - Last week, the overall ETF market had a net capital outflow of 298.095 billion yuan, with stock - type ETFs having the largest net outflow of 317.982 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume of the overall ETF market was 635.407 billion yuan, the average daily trading volume was 225.627 billion shares, and the average daily turnover rate was 9.11%. Chemical, gold, non - ferrous metals, and convertible bond sectors were the main capital inflow varieties, while broad - based indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 1000, SSE 50, and CSI Small - cap 500 continued to see large - scale capital outflows [3][50]. 4. Fund Issuance Statistics - Last week, 45 new funds were issued, 5 more than the previous period, including 24 actively managed equity funds and 12 passive index funds. The 12 passive index funds were all stock - type, mainly tracking indices such as the SZSE GEM New Energy Vehicle Battery Index, CSI Industrial Non - ferrous Metals Theme Index, and CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index. 47 new funds were established, 5 more than the previous period, and new funds raised a total of 48.272 billion yuan, an increase of 3.818 billion yuan from the previous period [4][58][63].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Currency Movements - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, ending a three-rate cut cycle, with a focus on achieving full employment and a 2% inflation target [1][14] - The Chinese yuan's midpoint exchange rate broke the 7.0 mark against the US dollar for the first time in two and a half years, driven by a weak dollar and seasonal demand for currency settlement [1][15] Group 2: Company Developments and Financial Performance - Huadong Heavy Machinery expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a decrease of 39.05% to 59.36% due to the divestment of its profitable CNC machine tool business and losses from its newly acquired chip subsidiary [1][18] - Agricultural University Technology listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, becoming Shandong's first A-share company of the year, with its stock price surging by 111.56% on the first day despite concerns over its revenue and profit trends [1][20] - Seagate Technology's stock surged over 16% to a record high following a strong earnings report, with significant revenue and earnings per share exceeding market expectations [1][20] - SK Hynix reported a nearly 1.2 times increase in net profit for the previous year, driven by the AI storage market, and expects continued growth in storage demand [1][20] Group 3: Legal and Regulatory Issues - Shenzhen Water Bay Jewelry faced withdrawal difficulties, with thousands of investors unable to cash out, raising concerns about illegal gold betting practices [1][16] - Sunflower's major asset restructuring plan was terminated due to an investigation by the Securities Regulatory Commission, leading to significant losses for investors [1][21] - Dike Co., a leader in photovoltaic silver paste, initiated patent infringement lawsuits against two companies, seeking a total of 4 billion yuan in damages [1][21] Group 4: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The price of international spot gold reached a new high, exceeding $5,300 per ounce, prompting major jewelry brands to adapt their business strategies to focus on design and service rather than raw material value [1][23] - The price of Flying Moutai surged to 1,600 yuan per bottle, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints, leading to a secondary market for reselling [1][24] - Industrial Fulian, an AI giant, projected a significant increase in net profit for 2025, driven by strong growth in cloud computing and AI server revenues [1][25]

Group 1 - The total scale of public funds in China reached a historical high of 37.71 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025, marking an increase of 0.69 trillion yuan from the end of November 2025 [1] - The public fund industry in China showed a positive development trend throughout 2025, with total assets increasing for nine consecutive months, from 33.12 trillion yuan at the end of April 2025 to 37.71 trillion yuan by the end of December 2025 [1] - The largest category of funds is money market funds, totaling 15.03 trillion yuan, followed by bond funds at 10.94 trillion yuan and equity funds at 6.05 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - All fund types, except for money market funds, experienced growth by the end of December 2025 compared to the end of November 2025, with bond funds and equity funds showing the most significant increases of 4.12 trillion yuan and 2.54 trillion yuan, respectively [2] - FOF products also saw growth in both scale and share, with increases of 8.85 billion yuan and 7.13 billion shares [2] - QDII funds reached a scale of 981.56 billion yuan by the end of December 2025, indicating a notable increase in both scale and share [2] Group 3 - Investment direction for 2026 is expected to focus on technology growth, with value stocks also anticipated to have a resurgence, driven by rising global AI computing demand and semiconductor equipment needs [3] - Recommendations include focusing on sectors such as internet, electronic semiconductors, communications, and military industries, as well as globally competitive manufacturing sectors [3] - In the bond market, there is an emphasis on recognizing the intense reality of market competition, with a focus on short-term trading opportunities and risk control [3]

| 类别 | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (2025/12/31) | (2025/12/31) | (2025/12/31) | (2025/11/30) | (2025/11/30) | | 股票基金 | 3.442 | 39.527.06 | 60.525.58 | 3.371 | 38,210. 97 | | 债券基金 | 3,884 | 91,493.63 | 109,361.39 | 3,858 | 88,657.06 | | 货币市场基金 | 358 | 150.331. 15 | 150.339.66 | 362 | 151.859.24 | | 混合基金 | 4,836 | 25,527.43 | 36,754.12 | 4,820 | 25,832. 10 | | 基金中基金 | 549 | 2.238.90 | 2,443.93 | 532 | 2.167.63 | | 其他基金 | 553 | 11.182.34 | 17.712.30 ...

| 类别 | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | 净值(亿元) | 基金数量(只) | 份额(亿份) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (2025/12/31) | (2025/12/31) | (2025/12/31) | (2025/11/30) | (2025/11/30) | | 股票基金 | 3.442 | 39,527.06 | 60.525.58 | 3.371 | 38,210.97 | | 债券基金 | 3.884 | 91,493.63 | 109.361.39 | 3,858 | 88,657.06 | | 货币市场基金 | 358 | 150.331.15 | 150,339.66 | 362 | 151,859.24 | | 混合基金 | 4.836 | 25.527.43 | 36.754.12 | 4,820 | 25,832.10 | | 基金中基金 | 549 | 2,238.90 | 2,443.93 | 532 | 2,167.63 | | 其他基金 | 553 | 11,182.34 | 17,712.30 | 5 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a significant improvement in market trading volume and new fund issuance at the beginning of 2026, which is favorable for the fundamentals of financial IT and brokerage sectors. Brokerage firms are expected to continue rapid growth in their brokerage business, while investment banking, asset management, and overseas expansion are likely to enhance the return on equity (ROE) of leading brokerage firms. The insurance sector has also seen a strong start in both individual and bank-insurance channels, with a continued trend of deposit migration, suggesting a positive outlook for the insurance sector in the spring market [4][6]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - Daily average trading volume for stock funds reached 3.44 trillion, down 16% week-on-week; however, the average trading volume since the beginning of 2026 is 3.64 trillion, a 105% increase compared to Q1 2025 [4] - New stock and mixed fund issuance in January 2026 totaled 44.3 billion, a 56% year-on-year increase [4] - The "Public Fund Performance Benchmark Guidelines" was officially released on January 23, 2026, establishing stricter standards for benchmark selection and changes, enhancing performance evaluation and compensation management systems [4] Insurance Sector - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a stable research value for ordinary life insurance products at 1.89%, slightly down from 1.90% in the previous quarter, indicating a trend towards stability [6] - The individual insurance channel is under pressure due to various factors, but the strong start in 2026 is expected to improve new policy growth, aided by favorable market conditions [6] - The stabilization of long-term interest rates and a favorable equity market are expected to enhance net assets and profitability for insurance companies, with a potential valuation recovery towards 1x PEV for leading firms [6] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guangfa Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, and China International Capital Corporation H, as well as China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the Chinese public fund industry has generated over 7.9 trillion yuan in investment profits for fund holders from 1998 to the end of Q4 2025, with 2025 alone contributing over 2.6 trillion yuan, setting a historical record [2] - By the end of Q4 2025, the total asset management scale of the public fund market reached nearly 37 trillion yuan, marking a new historical high and reflecting the ongoing expansion trend of the public fund market [2] - The article emphasizes the strengthening role of public funds in wealth accumulation and asset allocation for residents, indicating their increasing importance in the high-quality development of the wealth management system [2] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, the ETF market emerged as a standout segment, with the overall scale surpassing 6 trillion yuan, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of approximately 6.93% [4] - The number of newly issued public fund products in Q4 2025 totaled 406, raising approximately 280.1 billion yuan, which is a quarter-on-quarter decrease of about 23% [4] - Despite the decline in new issuance scale, stock and bond funds remained dominant, indicating a stable demand for both equity growth opportunities and steady income-generating assets [4] Group 3 - By the end of Q4 2025, the public fund market scale reached 36.76 trillion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 2.34% [6] - The three-year trend shows that the public fund market has maintained steady growth, with an average quarterly growth rate of 3.16% since Q2 2024, when the overall scale surpassed 30 trillion yuan [8] Group 4 - In Q4 2025, the top ten funds by profit were predominantly commodity-related ETFs, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a significant increase in market interest and allocation willingness towards commodity-related assets [11] - The top fund by profit in Q4 was a gold ETF, generating a profit of 82.18 billion yuan, followed by other gold ETFs and the Shanghai 50 ETF [12][13] Group 5 - The asset allocation in Q4 2025 showed that bond assets accounted for 53.44% of the total, while cash assets increased to 14.27% [30] - The public funds held A-share market value exceeded 7 trillion yuan by the end of the quarter [33] - The average stock position for active equity funds was 89.92% during the quarter, indicating a slight decline in scale [36] Group 6 - In Q4 2025, the issuance scale of bond and stock funds accounted for 75.49% of all newly issued funds [69]