晨会纪要（2025/10/09） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.10.09） 宏观及策略研究 外汇系列：人民币汇率制度背景和分析框架——宏观经济专题 基金研究 固定收益研究 弱势期关注韧性，把握调整后的配置窗口——信用债四季度投资策略展望 权益市场主要指数全部上涨，公募基金规模再创新高——公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 纪 1、海内外汇率制度变迁 IMF 将各国汇率制度分为四大类：硬盯住、软盯住、浮动汇率和其他。纵观历史，金本位和布雷顿森林体 系时期的"黄金-美元"本位，均是以黄金类实物资产为"锚"，多数国家汇率制度也主要是采取硬盯住；在 此之后，国家信用主导国际货币体系，美元逐渐成为锚定物，各国汇率制度也随之开始向更加灵活的软盯 住变动。然而，随后的发展并未如预期那样向着更加灵活的浮动汇率制度变动，反而是逐渐向软盯住集中。 可见全球汇率制度的选择除了货币政策独立性以外，还面临着贸易发展、金 ...

（原标题：证券ETF爆发；公募规模突破36万亿再创新高丨ETF晚报） 一、ETF行业快讯 1.三大指数集体上涨，证券ETF爆发 今日，三大指数集体上涨，上证综指上涨0.9%，深证成指上涨2.05%，创业板指上涨2.74%。多只非银 金融板块ETF上涨，其中，证券ETF龙头（159993.SZ）上涨5.61%，券商ETF（159842.SZ）上涨 5.19%，证券ETF富国（515850.SH）上涨5.07%。银行板块多只ETF下跌，银行ETF指数基金 （516210.SH）下跌0.52%，银行ETF天弘（515290.SH）下跌0.42%，银行ETF（159887.SZ）下跌 0.39%。 2.公募规模突破36万亿再创新高 据证券时报，据中基协最新披露的数据，截至8月末，我国公募基金总规模突破36万亿元大关，年内第 五次创下历史新高。分产品类型来看，受益于8月权益市场的欢腾以及增量资金的踊跃，担纲规模增长 主力的为主动权益类基金，其中股票基金净值环比增幅高达12.76%，从历史数据来看，单月实现两位 数增长亦实属罕见，美国、中国香港市场的升温也带动QDII规模的上扬。 二、今日行情速览 1.指数走势 统计A股 ...

一、ETF行业快讯1.三大指数集体上涨，证券ETF爆发 今日，三大指数集体上涨，上证综指上涨0.9%，深证成指上涨2.05%，创业板指上涨2.74%。多只非银金融板块ETF上涨，其中，证券ETF龙头(159993.SZ)上 涨5.61%，券商ETF(159842.SZ)上涨5.19%，证券ETF富国(515850.SH)上涨5.07%。银行板块多只ETF下跌，银行ETF指数基金(516210.SH)下跌0.52%，银行 ETF天弘(515290.SH)下跌0.42%，银行ETF(159887.SZ)下跌0.39%。2.公募规模突破36万亿再创新高 据证券时报，据中基协最新披露的数据，截至8月末，我国公募基金总规模突破36万亿元大关，年内第五次创下历史新高。分产品类型来看，受益于8月权益 市场的欢腾以及增量资金的踊跃，担纲规模增长主力的为主动权益类基金，其中股票基金净值环比增幅高达12.76%，从历史数据来看，单月实现两位数增 长亦实属罕见，美国、中国香港市场的升温也带动QDII规模的上扬。二、今日行情速览1.指数走势 统计A股与海外主要核心指数走势，今日(9月29日，下同)三大指数集体上涨，其中上证指数上涨0 ...

Group 1 - The event "Investment has Young" aims to bridge the gap between public funds and young investors, promoting financial literacy and rational investment among university students [1][9] - The activity featured interactive sessions where fund managers shared their investment experiences and explained complex financial concepts in relatable terms, enhancing students' understanding of public fund operations and A-share market risks [3][5] - A financial literacy interactive experience was included, allowing students to reflect on their risk preferences through scenario-based questions, with fund managers providing real-time feedback to encourage rational investment thinking [7] Group 2 - The event was organized by Jiashi Fund in collaboration with several other funds, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development in public funds as part of a broader initiative [1][9] - The initiative is part of a larger action plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, aligning with the goals of the "New Era, New Fund, New Value" campaign [1] - Jiashi Fund plans to continue engaging with universities and industry partners to spread the message of rational investment and support young individuals in their wealth management and career planning journeys [9]

Market Overview - The major indices in the equity market showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34% and the Shanghai 50 Index declining by 1.98% [2] - Among the 31 first-level industries, 13 experienced gains, with the top five performing industries being coal, electrical equipment, electronics, automobiles, and machinery [2] - The five industries with the largest declines were banking, non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, steel, and agriculture [2] Public Fund Market - The scale of the Shanghai and Shenzhen ETF exceeded 5.1 trillion yuan [2] - In the past month, 14 actively managed equity funds were closed early [2] - Among equity funds, the average increase for equity-oriented funds was 0.63%, while fixed income plus funds saw an average decline of 0.08% with a positive return ratio of 41.65% [2] - Pure bond funds had an average increase of 0.03%, and pension target FOFs rose by an average of 0.54% [2] - QDII funds averaged an increase of 1.37%, with a positive return ratio of 81.14% [2] Fund Positioning - The industries with the highest increases in active equity fund positions were media, coal, and electrical equipment, while the largest decreases were in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and comprehensive sectors [3] - The overall positioning of active equity funds was measured at 77.69% as of September 19, 2025, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points from the previous period [3] ETF Market - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 13.612 billion yuan last week, with cross-border ETFs contributing a net inflow of 16.079 billion yuan [3] - Stock ETFs experienced a net inflow of 4.856 billion yuan [3] - The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 469.267 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover rate of 10.34% [3] - Major inflow themes included brokerages, robotics, and gold ETFs, while broad-based funds continued to see outflows, particularly from the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR 50, CSI 300, and CSI A500 indices [3] Fund Issuance - A total of 31 new funds were issued last week, a decrease of 24 from the previous period, while 56 new funds were established, an increase of 17 [3] - The total amount raised by new funds was 70.735 billion yuan, an increase of 48.941 billion yuan from the previous period [3]

Market Overview - The equity market saw all major indices rise last week, with the Sci-Tech 50 increasing by 5.48% and both the Small and Medium-sized Board Index and the CSI 500 rising over 3% [3] - Among the 31 first-level industries, 26 experienced gains, with the top five performing sectors being electronics, real estate, agriculture, media, and non-ferrous metals; the bottom five were comprehensive, banking, oil and petrochemicals, pharmaceuticals, and leisure services [3] Public Fund Market - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to further promote the regular application and recommendation of real estate investment trusts (REITs) in the infrastructure sector [4] - The average increase for equity funds was 2.28%, while fixed income plus funds rose by 0.16%, with a positive return ratio of 54.51%; pure bond funds saw an average decline of 0.15% [4] - The overall equity fund position was measured at 78.29% as of September 12, 2025, an increase of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [4] ETF Market - The ETF market experienced a net inflow of 4.434 billion yuan last week, with cross-border ETFs seeing a net inflow of 18.693 billion yuan, while stock ETFs had a net outflow of 5.382 billion yuan [5] - The average daily trading volume in the ETF market reached 439.932 billion yuan, with a daily turnover rate of 10.20% [5] - Major inflow themes included brokerages, batteries, and Hong Kong innovative pharmaceuticals, while broad-based funds continued to see outflows [5] Fund Issuance - A total of 55 new funds were issued last week, an increase of 11 from the previous period, with 39 newly established funds, up by 1 [6] - The total amount raised by new funds was 21.794 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.779 billion yuan from the prior period [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw all major indices rise last week, with the Sci-Tech 50, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Index, and CSI 500 Index leading with returns of 5.48%, 3.66%, and 3.38% respectively, while the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and ChiNext Index lagged with returns of 1.38%, 1.52%, and 2.10% respectively [1][9] - In terms of trading volume, all major indices except the Sci-Tech 50 experienced a decline in trading volume last week [10] - The electronic, real estate, and agriculture sectors performed well, with returns of 5.98%, 5.82%, and 4.52% respectively, while the banking, comprehensive finance, and pharmaceutical sectors underperformed with returns of -0.64%, -0.58%, and -0.28% respectively [1][14] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 46 funds were reported last week, a decrease from the previous week, including 3 FOFs and 3 QDIIs [2] - Last week, 40 new funds were established with a total issuance scale of 21.794 billion yuan, which is a decrease from the previous week [3] - The Huashang Hong Kong Stock Connect Value Return Fund completed its fundraising on September 8, raising over 1 billion yuan with a subscription confirmation ratio of 32.95% [5] - The performance of open-end public funds showed that active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced mixed funds had returns of 2.18%, 1.73%, and 0.91% respectively [29][36] Fund Sales and Management - As of last week, there were 243 ordinary FOF funds, 119 target date funds, and 152 target risk funds in the open-end public fund category [35] - The top three fund sales institutions by equity fund holdings were Ant Fund, China Merchants Bank, and Tian Tian Fund, with holdings of 822.9 billion yuan, 492 billion yuan, and 349.6 billion yuan respectively [7] - The target date funds had the best median performance this year, with a cumulative return of 13.94% [36] Bond Market - As of last Friday, the central bank's reverse repo net injection was 196.1 billion yuan, with reverse repos maturing at 1,068.4 billion yuan, resulting in a net open market injection of 1,264.5 billion yuan [17] - The yield on government bonds of different maturities has increased, with credit spreads widening by 3.69 basis points [18][23] Sector Performance - Over the past month, the communication sector has seen the highest cumulative increase of 25.38%, while the comprehensive finance sector has experienced a cumulative decline of 5.53% [14] - Year-to-date, the communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics sectors have shown high cumulative returns of 63.94%, 60.31%, and 38.03% respectively, while sectors like coal, transportation, and food and beverage have the lowest returns [14][16]

Core Insights - The public fund industry reported a total profit of 636.17 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a significant recovery compared to the previous year [1][2] - The growth in public fund scale has accelerated, with expectations for increased market activity due to upcoming fund issuances [1][3] Fund Performance - Out of 162 public fund managers, 155 reported positive profits, with E Fund leading at 58.40 billion yuan, followed by Huaxia Fund at 57.27 billion yuan [2] - Equity and mixed funds generated profits close to 170 billion yuan each, recovering from losses in the previous year, while bond funds saw profits exceeding 90 billion yuan, down over 50% year-on-year [1][2] Fund Management and Holdings - Huaxia Fund managed the highest number of products at 813, followed by GF Fund and Southern Fund with 770 and 751 products respectively [2] - The top three stocks held by public funds in terms of market value were Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, and China Merchants Bank, with holdings valued at 149.22 billion yuan, 129.58 billion yuan, and 80.37 billion yuan respectively [2] Industry Trends - The public fund management scale reached 34.39 trillion yuan by the end of June and surpassed 35 trillion yuan by the end of July, reflecting a warming market [3] - The issuance of active equity funds has significantly increased, with a total issuance of 85.96 billion yuan in 2025, up nearly 60% from the previous year [3][4]

Group 1 - The total profit of public funds reached 636.17 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, indicating a significant increase in fund performance compared to the previous year [1][2] - The number of public fund managers reporting profits is high, with 155 out of 162 showing positive results, led by E Fund with a profit of 58.40 billion yuan [2] - The total management scale of public funds reached 34.39 trillion yuan by the end of June 2025, surpassing 35 trillion yuan by the end of July, reflecting a growing market [3] Group 2 - The top three sectors by market value held by public funds are Electronics (16.41%), Pharmaceuticals (9.79%), and Power Equipment (8.23%) [3] - The issuance of active equity funds has increased significantly, with a total issuance of 85.96 billion yuan in 2025, up nearly 60% from the previous year [3] - The trend of "daylight funds" has emerged, indicating strong demand and market activity, as seen with the rapid fundraising of the招商均衡优选混合 fund [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry in China has shown strong performance in the first half of 2025, with total investment income reaching 636.17 billion yuan, driven primarily by equity and mixed funds, which contributed over 330 billion yuan in profits. However, there remains a disparity in profitability among different fund companies, with some small firms facing losses [1][2]. Group 1: Performance of Public Funds - In the first half of 2025, public funds achieved an investment income of 636.17 billion yuan, with equity and mixed funds being the main contributors, generating over 330 billion yuan [1]. - All types of funds, including bond funds, money market funds, QDII funds, commodity funds, and FOFs, reported positive returns [1]. - As of August 28, 2025, 16 public fund companies reported their operating performance, with major firms like GF Fund and Huaxia Fund each surpassing 1 billion yuan in net profit [1][2]. Group 2: Leading Fund Companies - The top five fund companies, including E Fund, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, and Southern Fund, maintained a stronghold in profitability, each achieving over 1 billion yuan in net profit [2]. - GF Fund exhibited remarkable growth, with a net profit increase of 43.54% year-on-year and a revenue growth rate of 22.17% [3]. - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund achieved a net profit of 1.745 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 29.64%, despite its overall management scale being below 1 trillion yuan [4]. Group 3: Performance of Small and Medium-sized Fund Companies - Some small and medium-sized fund companies have outperformed larger firms in net profit growth, with Yongying Fund achieving a net profit of 182 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.2% [4][5]. - Other firms like Zhongyou Chuangye Fund and Caizhong Fund also reported strong profit growth, with increases exceeding 40% [6]. - The overall number of public fund management institutions in China reached 164, managing a total net asset value of 34.39 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.75% increase from the previous year [6]. Group 4: Market Trends and Future Outlook - There is a growing trend of residents investing in public fund products, indicating a promising future for index-based investments [7]. - The public fund industry is experiencing both opportunities and challenges, driven by policy benefits and product innovations [7].