概览：北京时间 1 月 29 日（周四）凌晨美联储公布 1 月议息会议决定，政 策利率维持在 3.5-3.75%，联储对经济和就业市场表述更加乐观，市场降息 预期变动不大；关注联储主席提名情况。 联储 1 月会议如期维持政策利率在 3.5-3.75%，决议声明以及鲍威尔记者会 表态对经济前景更加乐观。理事沃勒、米兰反对维持政策利率不变，要求降 息 25 个基点。决议声明对经济增长的描述从"温和"（moderate）调整为"稳 健"（solid），删除"就业市场下行风险上升"的表述，并指出失业率出现企稳 迹象，整体表述更加乐观；鲍威尔未回应是否留任联储理事等问题，对利率 前景也没有给出明确指引。截至北京时间凌晨 4:50，相较会议前，除黄金 外，市场整体变动不大：2026 年降息预期持平于 46bp；2y、10y 美债收益 率亦分别持平于 3.58%、4.25%；美元指数回落 0.2%至 96.4；标普 500、 纳指均上涨 0.1%，道指基本持平，黄金上涨 1.9%至 5374 美元/盎司。 基本面方面，鲍威尔表示，经济前景改善，就业市场下行风险与通胀上行风 险均有所减弱。增长方面，消费者支出保持韧性、企业投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article suggests focusing on the potential recovery of the U.S. housing market, indicating that housing builders and related stocks may present investment opportunities due to current policy directions aimed at alleviating the stagnation-like state of the housing market [2][3]. Summary by Sections Current Market Conditions - Since the interest rate hikes began in the second half of 2022, the U.S. housing market has been characterized by "high prices and low transactions," a stagnation-like state that is rare in the past 40 years [2][7]. - The main variable to observe is interest rates, as a successful implementation of rate cuts could positively guide expectations for both households and businesses, improving affordability and gradually restoring housing transactions [2][3]. Reliability of Recovery - The reliability of the recovery is primarily attributed to the Trump administration's intention to restart the real estate market through financial conditions easing, which includes pushing for interest rate cuts and the potential relisting of government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) to enhance credit expansion [3][9]. - However, the current stagnation-like conditions differ fundamentally from past market downturns, raising concerns about the sustainability of any recovery driven by financial easing [3][9]. Potential Recovery Scenarios - The article emphasizes that while U.S. home prices reached historical highs in 2021, the actual growth rate has turned negative since 2022, indicating limited space for further real gains in home prices [4][10]. - The focus should be on the recovery of transaction volumes, particularly in the resale market, as both resale and new home construction show potential for improvement [4][10]. Key Factors for Recovery - The ongoing uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook and interest rate expectations has led to a cautious stance among consumers and real estate companies [9]. - The current housing supply-demand balance is tight, supported by demographic trends and immigration, which contrasts sharply with the post-2008 market conditions [9][10]. Policy Implications - The Trump administration's approach to easing financial conditions aims to mobilize the housing market, differing from the Democratic approach of providing direct subsidies for home purchases [11]. - While there are positive short-term expectations regarding policy impacts, there are concerns about potential long-term financial risks associated with artificially induced market conditions [11][12]. Investment Perspective - Overall, the article presents a bullish view on the potential recovery of U.S. housing transactions as a worthwhile investment direction, despite the uncertainties surrounding the impact of GSE privatization on housing finance costs [12].