Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, setting the target range at 4% to 4.25%, while emphasizing that this rate cut is not a signal of easing but a gradual measure to maintain economic stability and avoid a hard landing [3][4]. - Powell's remarks indicate a return to a data-dependent approach for future rate cuts, with the Fed maintaining a neutral stance on economic and inflation outlooks, despite upward adjustments in economic forecasts [4][5]. - The report anticipates two more rate cuts in 2025, expected in late October and early December, with inflation pressures expected to be minimal due to weak demand and low base effects [5][6]. Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized by a potential stagflation scenario, with employment data showing a continuous decline, including a notable increase in long-term unemployment [6]. - The report suggests that the market's liquidity has become more abundant, favoring small-cap stocks, and emphasizes the importance of a "barbell strategy" in equity investments, focusing on real estate and financial technology [7]. - The outlook for the U.S. dollar remains bearish, with expectations of fluctuations, while monitoring whether the 12-month rate cut expectations can exceed 150 basis points [7].

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 is crucial as it influences not only U.S. interest rates but also global capital flows and economic policies [1][4][10] Meeting Structure - FOMC holds eight meetings annually, with four key meetings in March, June, September, and December that include the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the dot plot, which are critical for market expectations [5][8] - The meetings are structured in two days: the first day involves staff reporting on economic data, and the second day is dedicated to policy discussions and voting on the federal funds rate [8] Economic Context - The September meeting occurs amid complex economic signals, political instability, and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [10] - The decisions made by FOMC directly affect U.S. interest rates, impacting mortgage rates, corporate financing costs, and savings returns for households [11] Global Implications - U.S. interest rates serve as a global anchor, influencing capital flows and the stability of emerging markets, with many central banks adjusting their policies in response to FOMC decisions [12] Key Focus Areas - The meeting is particularly noteworthy due to the potential for a policy shift, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, which would signal a move towards easing monetary policy [14][17] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, especially with political pressures from the Trump administration and ongoing debates regarding new appointments to the board [14] - The release of the updated dot plot and SEP will be closely watched, as it will provide insights into future interest rate expectations and economic forecasts [15][17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to tariff agreements and Federal Reserve independence issues, with prices initially rising before declining [2][9] - Copper prices are supported by positive market sentiment and upcoming tariff implementation, despite potential supply and demand pressures [10][12] - The aluminum sector is experiencing price fluctuations influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and inventory levels, with long-term demand expected to remain strong [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Research Insights - Gold prices are under pressure due to evolving tariff agreements and scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's independence, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold [9] - Copper prices are supported by positive sentiment in the domestic commodity market and upcoming tariff changes, with a long-term optimistic outlook [10] - Aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors and inventory levels, with expectations of sustained high profitability in the sector [11] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 7.10%, outperforming the broader market by 5.43%, ranking third among 30 sub-industries [12] - The top-performing sectors include tungsten, lithium, and rare earth materials, with significant individual stock gains [12] Metal Prices and Inventory - Prices for various metals, including lithium and cobalt, have shown significant increases, indicating strong demand and market dynamics [22][24][27] - Basic metals have generally seen price increases both domestically and internationally, with specific price movements detailed for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin [27][28] - Inventory levels for metals such as copper and aluminum have shown mixed trends, impacting market supply dynamics [35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China, highlighting recent statements from Trump and other officials that suggest a shift in policy direction towards more constructive negotiations [1]. Group 1: Trade Relations - Trump expressed a desire for the U.S.-China trade war to be unsustainable, indicating that both sides do not view the current situation as viable [3]. - Bessent stated at a private investor summit that the trade war is not sustainable and that negotiations with China may be a "hard battle" but are necessary [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - Trump called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates and expressed no intention to dismiss Fed Chairman Powell, urging for more proactive measures regarding interest rates [2]. - The White House Press Secretary Levitt mentioned that Trump wants the U.S. dollar to maintain its status as the world's reserve currency [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following these statements, the U.S. dollar and stock market experienced a rebound, with futures continuing to rise post-market [1]. - The article suggests that with the current high tariffs and effective embargoes, the situation may only improve from here, hinting at potential investment opportunities [1].

2. 特朗普称美联储应该降低利率，且他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，还表示希望鲍威尔在利率问题上采取更加积极的行动 3. 贝森特周二在华盛顿特区由摩根大通主办的私人投资者峰会上表示，与中国的贸易战是不可持续的，"没有人认为目前的现状 是可持续的"，贸易战局势可能会在 "不久的将来" 缓和。他还坚称，特朗普政策的目标 "不是脱钩"，但与中国谈判可能是 "一 场艰苦的战斗"，双方都 "不认为现状是可持续的"。 4. 2025 年 4 月 23 日，美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特表示，特朗普希望美元继续保持世界储备货币地位。 以上回应了近期大家关注的中美关税，美元信用，联储独立性，安抚意味浓厚。 美元，美股即刻反弹，盘后期货继续涨；目前中美高关税实质禁运的前提下，已经没有更差了，置之死地而后生，过程肯定是曲 折的，后面只会越来越来好，有没有被错杀的机会？ 1. 川普发表关税缓和言论，抛出橄榄枝： ...