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金融能否重演14年下半年行情?
Xinda Securities· 2025-05-18 11:02
Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report suggests that recent changes in public fund regulations have increased investor attention on banks and non-bank financial institutions, drawing parallels to the significant market rally in the second half of 2014, which was driven by low allocations and regulatory changes [2][10] - Similarities between the current situation and 2014 include significant underweighting of public funds in financial sectors due to previous bear markets and GDP declines, as well as new regulatory changes, with the 2014 launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the 2025 public fund regulations [10][11] - The report indicates that the banking sector was more undervalued in 2014, with substantial inflows of retail funds expected in the latter half of the year, which is a critical factor for a potential market rally [10][11] Group 2 - The report identifies three main reasons for the financial sector's rally in Q4 2014: (1) public funds were significantly underweight in financials, (2) the launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and interest rate cuts by the central bank, and (3) valuation recovery potential based on PB-ROE metrics [3][12][17] - The analysis of PB-ROE metrics shows that in 2014, banks' PB declined faster than ROE due to investor concerns about profitability, leading to a significant valuation recovery in the second half of the year, a pattern that may repeat in 2024 due to current investor fears regarding real estate risks [17][18] - The report notes that the brokerage sector may be experiencing a short-term rotation, with historical patterns indicating that brokerages often perform well at the end of market rallies or during rapid market upswings [19][20] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the A-share market may experience a slight pullback from late May to July, driven by policy expectations and tariff impacts, but expects a return to a bullish market state in Q4 [22][24] - The report emphasizes a preference for value-oriented investments in the current quarter, with a focus on sectors such as banking, real estate, and military industry, while also highlighting the potential of new consumption trends [26][28] - The report suggests that the financial sector remains undervalued, with regulatory encouragement for ETF development and long-term capital inflows likely benefiting banks and related sectors [29]