登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 图/IC 2025年的A股有了"慢牛"标签。所谓"慢牛"指的是股票市场或基金市场在较长时间内呈现出持续、缓慢上升的态 势。 今年上半年，上证指数在3200-3300点位震荡调整，4月上旬触及3040.69点低位后企稳回升。进入下半年，市场运 行开启稳步上行通道。6月下旬以来，上证指数相继突破3400点、3600点、3800点甚至4000点关口，多次刷新10年 纪录。 市场成交额与总市值同步实现跨越式增长，年内成交额首次突破400万亿元，A股总市值也站上100万亿元台阶。 多家机构普遍看好后市行情，认为"慢牛"行情值得期待。高盛预测，到2027年底中国股市将上涨38%，受到2026 年和2027年分别为14%和12%的盈利增长以及约10%的估值修复潜力的推动。 2025年尾，又到了一年回顾与思考的时刻。 这一年，资本市场在稳步前行中实现了关键突破。上证指数一度站上4000点整数关口，A股总市值突破100万亿元 大关，市场在稳健向上的"慢牛"行情中实现了"量"与"质"的双重跃升。 市场生态也在深化改革中持续优化。并购重组明显升温；以社保、险资为代表的中长期资金加速 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market experienced a rare event where four new stocks collectively fell below their issue prices on their first trading day, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment and performance [2][3]. Group 1: IPO Performance - Four new stocks listed on December 22, 2025, including Mingji Hospital, Impression Dahongpao, Huazai Biotechnology, and Nanhua Futures, saw declines of 49.46%, 35.28%, 29.32%, and 24.17% respectively, with Mingji Hospital's drop marking the largest first-day decline for a new stock since 2025 [2][4]. - In December 2025, out of 17 newly listed stocks, 9 experienced first-day declines, representing over 50% of the total, contrasting sharply with the strong performance of new stocks earlier in the year [3]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The overall liquidity environment in the Hong Kong market has tightened, with daily trading volumes on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange falling below 2 billion HKD, and net inflows from southbound funds significantly decreasing to 219.12 billion RMB in December [5][6]. - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all experienced declines of 1.10%, 2.82%, and 1.96% respectively during the week of December 15-19, 2025 [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Performance - The recent decline in new stock performance is attributed to multiple factors, including tightening liquidity, high valuations relative to fundamental performance, and regulatory changes affecting public fund holdings in Hong Kong stocks [7][8]. - Mingji Hospital's high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 29.8 times compared to the average P/E of 17 times for the private hospital sector in Hong Kong indicates a mismatch between valuation and fundamental performance [8][9]. Group 4: Regulatory Changes - The introduction of "Mechanism B" for IPOs allows issuers to set a lower limit on the proportion of shares available for public subscription, which can reduce the risk of mispricing but may also limit the ability of companies with high valuations to attract sufficient demand [9][10]. - Mingji Hospital utilized Mechanism B for its IPO, issuing 67 million shares with only 10% allocated for public sale, resulting in a limited float of approximately 394 million HKD [10].

非银的弹性有望逐步增加 | 李畅 | 策略分析师 | | --- | --- | | | 执业编号：S1500523070001 | | 邮 | 箱： lichang@cindasc.com | ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] 徐国铨 策略研究助理 邮 箱：xuguoquan@cindasc.com [非银的弹性有望逐步增加 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 核心结论：本周保险板块表现较强，直接影响因素是政策和风格。我们 认为金融板块的行情可能从银行轮动到非银。保险估值性价比更好，一 旦出现政策催化，率先表现出弹性。后续如果指数突破，券商也会有表 现。2021-2023 年非银 PB 下降速度远快于 ROE 下降速度，这一点和银行 较为类似，因此理论上也存在较大的估值修复空间。动态来看，由于非 银当前估值水平仍在长期趋势以下偏低位置。而非 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 05 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商汽车 刘巍/白浪】超捷股份（301005）公司深度：车用紧固件隐形冠军，商业航天打开成长空间—— 20251204 重要观点 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/陈红】汽车零部件 行业深度： 具身智能与新能源车：此时此刻恰如彼时彼刻— —20251204 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数下跌 0.1%，沪深 300 上涨 0.3%，科创 50 上涨 1.4%，中证 1000 指数收盘与周三持平，创业 板指上涨 1.0%，恒生指数上涨 0.7%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是机械设备（+0.9%)、电子（+0.8%)、国防军工（+0.6%)、通信（+0.5%)、有色 金属（+0.3%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-2.1%)、美 ...

Group 1: Securities Industry Outlook - The securities industry is rated "outperform" by Guolian Minsheng Securities, with expectations of policy-driven recovery in investor confidence since September 2024 [1] - A significant increase in A-share trading activity has been observed since late September, indicating potential profitability for brokerages if market conditions improve [1] - The implementation of swap convenience details is expected to enhance market liquidity and trading activity [1] Group 2: Fund Management Changes - The new public fund regulations may impact the performance contributions of fund companies, with notable declines in net profit contributions from certain brokerages [2] - The top three brokerages experiencing the largest declines in contribution ratios are First Capital, Southwest Securities, and Great Wall Securities, with decreases of -43.5%, -11.4%, and -11.2% respectively [2] - The reforms are anticipated to shift the focus of fund companies from scale to returns, potentially optimizing the public fund industry landscape [2] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - There is a growing trend towards non-directional investments in brokerage proprietary trading, reducing reliance on market performance [3] - As of the end of 2024, 85% of CITIC Securities' equity financial assets are hedged through over-the-counter derivatives [3] - New tools like swap convenience are expected to provide innovative asset allocation strategies for brokerages [3] Group 4: Investment Banking and Private Equity - The current regulatory environment may continue to pressure IPO volumes in the short term for brokerages [4] - The contribution of private equity subsidiaries to brokerage profits is expected to increase, with average revenue and net profit contributions of 0.55% and 2.55% respectively for listed brokerages in 2024 [4] - The revised regulations for private equity fund subsidiaries are likely to promote more standardized development in this area [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market, specifically the Shanghai Composite Index and various sectors including banking, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, military industry, and coal. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions**: The current market is in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index oscillating between 3,432 and 3,186 points. Despite some sporadic positive news, the marginal impact is limited [1][9][11]. 2. **Technical Analysis**: There is a demand for adjustment in the Shanghai Composite Index, which may first attempt to rise before forming a wedge pattern and then decline, or it may directly adjust to around 3,270 points. The support levels at 3,186 to 3,201 points provide a triple technical protection, indicating a low risk of a crash [1][6][7]. 3. **Investment Strategy**: It is advised to maintain current mid-term positions without excessively reducing holdings. If there is a rapid pullback to the 3,186-3,201 point range, it is suggested to consider increasing positions. Attention should be paid to leading sectors and flexible adjustments to the portfolio structure [1][8][22]. 4. **Sector Performance**: Recent standout sectors include innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumer goods, small-cap stocks, and banking stocks. However, the latter has seen many investors miss timely allocations [4][30]. 5. **Future Market Outlook**: The market is expected to continue its oscillation, with potential challenges at 3,432 points. If this level is breached, it may lead to an ABC structure adjustment. Conversely, a direct decline could lead to a narrow range of fluctuations [11][13][21]. 6. **Brokerage Sector Importance**: The brokerage sector is crucial in the current market, closely mirroring the Shanghai Composite Index. A decline to the annual line could synchronize with the index's movements, creating positive expectations for future trends [14][15][17][19]. 7. **Public Fund Regulations**: New regulations for public funds will significantly impact performance assessments for fund managers, making it essential to outperform benchmarks [25][31]. 8. **Recommended Sectors**: In the current uncertain environment, the focus is on banking, non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, military, and coal sectors, which are deemed to have a certain level of certainty and can provide a balanced approach [2][30][31]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Sentiment**: The current market sentiment is described as low and indecisive, with investors feeling confused due to the lack of clear upward or downward movement [3]. 2. **Impact of External Factors**: The potential influence of external events, such as negative news from the U.S. or political developments, could lead to market fluctuations, but these may also present buying opportunities [20]. 3. **Investment Strategies**: Two main strategies are highlighted: the "bullet strategy" which focuses on concentrated investments in specific sectors, and the "dumbbell strategy" which emphasizes balanced diversification [26][27][28]. This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a clear overview of the current market dynamics and strategic considerations for investors.

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the financial sector, particularly in banking, is attributed to the upcoming public fund regulations, which may compel fund managers to adjust their portfolios to align with performance benchmarks [3][14]. Group 1: Public Fund Regulations - A significant aspect of the new public fund regulations is the requirement for fund managers whose products underperform their benchmarks by more than 10% over three years to see a notable decrease in their performance compensation [9][12]. - The regulations challenge fund managers to create stable excess returns while closely tracking performance benchmarks, leading to a potential shift in investment strategies [26][27]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Fund managers face a dilemma between adjusting their portfolio weights to align with benchmarks or changing their performance benchmarks to better fit their investment styles [16][24]. - Adjusting portfolio weights may protect fund managers' compensation but could dilute their investment uniqueness, increasing the selection power of fund companies [19][20]. - Changing performance benchmarks to align with fund managers' styles could lead to challenges, especially if managers frequently change, raising questions about the stability of benchmarks [24][25]. Group 3: Market Impact - The strong binding of funds to performance benchmarks is expected to reduce market volatility, as fund managers may limit their participation in hot sectors, leading to lower price increases in those areas [21][22][23]. - A potential shift of funds from sectors like electronics to the financial sector could occur if fund managers adjust their holdings based on performance benchmarks [25]. Group 4: Future Trends - The rise of quantitative index-enhanced strategies is anticipated, as these strategies may become more prevalent in response to the new regulations, combining with active management by fund managers [27][28].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **A-share market** and the **Hang Seng Technology Index**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Resistance Levels**: The Shanghai Composite Index faces strong resistance around 3,432 points, with expectations of a pullback to the 3,186-3,200 gap area to digest trapped and profit-taking positions for future upward momentum [1][5][20]. 2. **Hang Seng Technology Index Performance**: The index has seen a significant decline since March, dropping approximately 30% from 6,195 to 4,296 points. A rebound is expected, but it will likely face resistance between 5,250 and 5,470 points, indicating a need for further adjustment [3][4][23]. 3. **Market Volatility**: Increased bidirectional volatility suggests that investors should be cautious, focusing on short-term profit-taking and trapped positions while managing risks effectively [6][7]. 4. **Financial Sector Dynamics**: The recent rise in the financial sector is viewed as a short-term correction rather than the start of a new upward trend. Investors are advised to avoid blind chasing of stocks and to adjust their portfolio structures accordingly [1][12][13]. 5. **Fundamental Analysis**: Current market levels exceed those of early April, but the underlying fundamentals are weaker, indicating potential overvaluation. High tariff levels are also putting pressure on the market [1][17][20]. 6. **Market Structure and Future Trends**: The market is expected to undergo an ABC structural adjustment, with both the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index likely to experience downward corrections before any significant upward movement [5][21][22]. 7. **Investment Strategy Recommendations**: Investors are advised not to chase high prices and to maintain a balanced style with a relatively conservative position. It is suggested to reduce exposure to short-term positions acquired in April and to wait for better market conditions to re-enter [25][33]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Impact of New Regulations on Public Funds**: The new regulations may lead public funds to favor large-cap and value styles, although the short-term impact will depend on the flexibility of benchmark selection [28][29]. 2. **Calendar Effects on Market Styles**: The calendar effect typically favors large-cap financial stocks in April, but this year has shown a divergence with small-cap growth stocks underperforming [27][32]. 3. **Long-term Market Outlook**: The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase for an extended period, which could be beneficial for future upward movements. The anticipated recovery may begin around July 2025 [22][26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market dynamics and future expectations.

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the recent public fund regulations are a necessary result of long-term changes in China's capital market structure and economic structure [3] - The market style is shifting from low-volatility strategies to core assets, indicating a potential long-term decline in China's capital intensity [3][24] - In the short to medium term, the core asset style needs to recover, while in the long term, it reflects the cyclical bottoming of the economy [3][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the resilience of the US economy is weakening, with inflation structures continuing to adjust; April's CPI inflation year-on-year was 2.3%, while core CPI remained at 2.8% [8][11] - The US PPI inflation showed a month-on-month decline of -0.47% in April, with service PPI contributing significantly to this decline [9][12] - Retail sales in the US also showed weak growth, with a month-on-month increase of only 0.058% in April, indicating a drag on consumption [11][12] Group 3 - The report highlights the mutual reduction of trade barriers between China and the US, with both countries agreeing to cancel 91% of tariffs and establish a mechanism for ongoing economic negotiations [13][15] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a general increase, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.09% [16] - The report indicates a lack of clear main lines in the Hong Kong market, with sectors like security, NFT concepts, and building energy efficiency leading the gains [19][24] Group 4 - The report suggests that the growth style may continue to adjust due to a lack of event catalysts [3][24] - In terms of industry performance, financial and real estate sectors led the gains, while technology sectors faced declines [32][24] - The report also notes a divergence in foreign capital index futures holdings, with net short positions expanding in some indices [44]

Market Overview - The report indicates that the easing of tariff risks between China and the US has not changed the market's oscillating pattern, with the primary concern being economic expectations [4][5][15]. - Economic data for April shows signs of weakening, with external demand expectations declining and internal demand needing support [4][15]. Industry Configuration - The report highlights that the configuration value of the banking and insurance sectors has further increased, with a recommendation for a balanced investment strategy leaning towards these sectors [6][38]. - The automotive sector is experiencing a strong internal demand but weak external demand, leading to a "strong but not strong, weak but not weak" market condition [21][24]. Automotive Industry Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed new regulations requiring all passenger vehicles to be equipped with automatic emergency braking systems, positively impacting the automotive parts and passenger vehicle sectors [21][22]. - The automotive index is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern, with upward resistance and downward support due to the current economic conditions [21][24]. - As of May 16, the automotive sector index has risen to 7179.8 points, nearing the upper limit of its historical range, indicating a decrease in configuration value as it approaches previous highs [24]. Public Fund Regulations - New public fund regulations are expected to impose stricter constraints on performance benchmarks, which may lead to significant shifts in market behavior, particularly affecting equity funds [25][27]. - The report notes that the current allocation in the bond market is significantly lower than its benchmark, while the equity market allocation exceeds its benchmark [25][27].