金融风险管控
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左手黄金右手美股就能对冲风险吗?原中金首席风险官李祥林教你用衍生品辨别应对“黑天鹅”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-10-29 06:36
Core Insights - The year 2025 is characterized by a dramatic dichotomy where global liquidity is reviving market enthusiasm, particularly around AI narratives, while simultaneously, risk appetite is sharply declining as institutional funds flock to safe-haven assets like gold, leading to multiple record highs in gold prices [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are simultaneously betting on the future of AI while holding onto the reality of gold, reflecting a historical pattern in financial markets where optimism and caution coexist [3] - The current market environment mirrors past financial bubbles, such as the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, where overconfidence in technology and risk models led to significant downturns [3][5] - The volatility of risk assets is increasing even as indices reach record highs, indicating a disconnect between market performance and underlying risk factors [3] Group 2: Risk Management - The current risks stem from an overreliance on sophisticated algorithms and models, which may create a false sense of security in the market [5][6] - The belief that risks can be fully controlled through advanced models is challenged by the reality that increased information can lead to greater noise and potential misjudgments [5][6] - Investors need to develop a framework for identifying and responding to risks rather than merely relying on market trends [7][14] Group 3: Educational Initiatives - A course led by Professor Li Xianglin aims to equip investors with the skills necessary to maintain clarity in chaotic market conditions, emphasizing the importance of understanding risk rather than merely predicting opportunities [8][14] - Li Xianglin's background in risk management across various financial sectors positions him as a suitable instructor for this course, focusing on the interplay of risk factors and market behavior [10][12][14] - The course will address how to build a "risk immunity system" and recognize the emotional structures behind market behaviors, which are crucial for navigating future market uncertainties [18]
审计署:部分银行存在掩盖不良资产、违规放贷揽储等情况
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-06-25 10:48
Group 1 - The audit report reveals that several financial institutions have engaged in irregular practices in the disposal of non-performing assets, with a total of over 50 billion yuan being concealed through various means [1][2] - The audit focused on two policy banks and three local small and medium-sized banks, which were found to have issues not only with non-performing assets but also in areas such as real estate financing and account supervision [1][2] - A total of 209.68 billion yuan in loans was improperly issued to real estate projects lacking complete documentation, while 247.43 billion yuan in public fundraising risks were identified [2][3] Group 2 - The report indicates that while financial risks are being effectively mitigated, there are still weak links, particularly in the issuance of loans to real estate projects without proper risk assessment [2][3] - Three major issues were highlighted: inaccurate reporting of data related to national strategy and the real economy, concealment of non-performing asset disposal, and significant irregularities in lending practices [3] - Specific cases include the failure of certain banks to classify 193.8 billion yuan in loans as non-performing despite borrowers being unable to repay, and the extension of repayment terms by local banks to hide 318 billion yuan in non-performing loans [3]