（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 于是，不少投资者开始担忧全球金融市场流动性的问题。那么，这种担忧是否有道理呢？？这篇文章，我们将讨论全球周期性流动性危机的原理。 避险资产对金融系统的扭曲 一提到避险资产，人们想到的是黄金和BTC。然而，"避险资产"是一个极其有毒的概念，它的危险之处类似于"安全带"，诚然安全带能够增加人们在事故 中存活的几率，但是，因为有安全带保护而鲁莽驾驶，是灾难的开端。 事实上，真正的避险资产只有现金、短债以及货币基金这样的高流动资产。但是，在贪婪的驱使下，人们总是会用避险资产来替代现金。 文/沧海一土狗 ps：2700字 引子 近期，BTC价格大幅下挫，已经击穿了10万美金大关。 在11月14日，现货黄金价格和BTC价格发生共振，一度下跌3%+，收跌2%+。 上图向我们展示了一个数字化的示例： 在正常情况下，投资者只拿现金避险，系统中有20%的现金和80%的风险资产。在这种情况下，风险资产的价格取决于：1、现金的规模，即货币政策； 2、风险偏好，即社会的平均风险偏好。 为了摆脱央行束缚，投资者想要玩花活，用其他的东西来替代现金。于是，避险资产应运而生。 在变异情况 ...

Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 presents a dramatic scenario where global liquidity is revitalized, and market enthusiasm is rekindled, particularly driven by the AI narrative, leading to record highs in global stock markets [1][4]. However, there is a simultaneous sharp decline in risk appetite, with institutional funds flowing into safe-haven assets like gold, resulting in multiple historical highs in gold prices [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are simultaneously betting on the future of AI while holding onto the reality of gold, reflecting a historical pattern seen during the internet bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008 [4][5]. - The current market environment is characterized by a dissonance between the fervor for AI and the rising demand for risk aversion, indicating a potential for irrational collapse following a period of rational exuberance [5][24]. Group 2: Risk Management Insights - The article emphasizes the need for a robust risk framework to navigate the current chaotic market conditions, as highlighted by Professor Li Xianglin's upcoming course aimed at equipping participants with essential skills for risk assessment and management [8][25]. - The course will cover the construction of risk factor models, risk prevention and early warning systems, and strategies for asset allocation during turbulent times [27][28]. Group 3: Professor Li Xianglin's Background - Professor Li Xianglin has a distinguished career in financial risk management, having worked at major institutions like Citigroup and Barclays, where he developed the Gaussian Copula function, a foundational model for pricing credit derivatives [11][22]. - After the 2008 financial crisis, he shifted focus from financial innovation to risk governance, contributing to the Basel Committee and advising key financial regulatory bodies in China [13][23]. Group 4: Course Objectives - The course aims to help participants understand how financial risks are generated and to develop a framework for identifying and responding to risks, rather than merely predicting opportunities [34][35]. - It will also address the psychological aspects of market behavior, emphasizing the importance of maintaining independent judgment amidst market euphoria and panic [30][34].

Core Insights - The year 2025 is characterized by a dramatic dichotomy where global liquidity is reviving market enthusiasm, particularly around AI narratives, while simultaneously, risk appetite is sharply declining as institutional funds flock to safe-haven assets like gold, leading to multiple record highs in gold prices [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are simultaneously betting on the future of AI while holding onto the reality of gold, reflecting a historical pattern in financial markets where optimism and caution coexist [3] - The current market environment mirrors past financial bubbles, such as the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, where overconfidence in technology and risk models led to significant downturns [3][5] - The volatility of risk assets is increasing even as indices reach record highs, indicating a disconnect between market performance and underlying risk factors [3] Group 2: Risk Management - The current risks stem from an overreliance on sophisticated algorithms and models, which may create a false sense of security in the market [5][6] - The belief that risks can be fully controlled through advanced models is challenged by the reality that increased information can lead to greater noise and potential misjudgments [5][6] - Investors need to develop a framework for identifying and responding to risks rather than merely relying on market trends [7][14] Group 3: Educational Initiatives - A course led by Professor Li Xianglin aims to equip investors with the skills necessary to maintain clarity in chaotic market conditions, emphasizing the importance of understanding risk rather than merely predicting opportunities [8][14] - Li Xianglin's background in risk management across various financial sectors positions him as a suitable instructor for this course, focusing on the interplay of risk factors and market behavior [10][12][14] - The course will address how to build a "risk immunity system" and recognize the emotional structures behind market behaviors, which are crucial for navigating future market uncertainties [18]