1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the rebar 2601 contract rose 0.03%. From January - October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In November 2025, the steel industry PMI was 48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. The industry operation slowed down. The rebar has changed from a situation of strong supply and weak demand to a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have improved. Steel prices may fluctuate and stabilize at the end of the year [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: There is a daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract, but no specific data analysis is provided [8][9] - **Spot Price**: As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,260 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and in Tianjin, it was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] - **Basis and Spread**: The report mentions rebar basis (active contract), but no detailed data or analysis is provided [16] Important Market Information - In November 2025, the steel industry PMI was 48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2 percentage points. The industry's off - season characteristics are gradually emerging. It is expected that in December, steel demand may decline steadily, steel production will moderately contract, raw material prices will fall from high levels, and steel prices will fluctuate and stabilize [18] Supply - side Situation - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 234,680 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 810 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53%. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89% [6][40] Demand - side Situation - As of November 2025, the current value of the construction industry in the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.6, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The current value of the steel circulation industry purchasing managers' index was 47.7, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [29][30] Fundamental Analysis - From January - October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.53%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 87.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60% and a year - on - year increase of 0.18%. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89%. The average daily hot metal output was 234,680 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 810 tons [38][40] 后市展望 (Future Outlook) - From January - September, the profitability was good. In October, as raw materials continuously squeezed the profit of finished products and steel prices fell, the steel mill profit declined rapidly. At the end of October, the average daily hot metal output fell below 240,000 tons, ending the high - yield situation that lasted for 7 months since March. The rebar has changed from a situation of strong supply and weak demand to a situation of weak supply and demand, and the fundamentals have improved. Steel prices may fluctuate and stabilize at the end of the year [6][41] Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait for the stabilization signal to further strengthen and then try to go long with a light position on dips - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see - **Options**: Wait and see [7][42]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the trend of oscillating and stabilizing. It is suggested to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and also to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [2][3]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the rebar 2510 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and moderately strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and moderately weak. The core logic is that optimistic sentiment dominates, leading to the oscillation and stabilization of steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment is warm, and the black metal sector is rising as a whole. The fundamentals of rebar are weakly stable. The output of construction steel mills continues to increase, and the supply pressure is rising. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar remains seasonally weak, with weekly performance slightly increasing month - on - month but high - frequency trading remaining sluggish. Both are at low levels compared to the same period. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged. Although the fundamentals are seasonally weak and steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off - season, with low inventory, the real - world contradictions are not significant. Policy benefits are fermenting, and the strong raw materials provide cost support [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and slightly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line, and the weak expectations are being repaired, with steel prices stabilizing in a volatile manner [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term and medium - term trends are "volatile", and the intraday trend is "slightly volatile". The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that weak expectations are being repaired and steel prices are stabilizing in a volatile manner. The calculation of price changes and definitions of trends are also provided [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - There are changes in both the supply and demand sides of rebar. The weekly output of rebar has decreased month - on - month, and supply has shrunk. At the same time, high - frequency demand indicators are also weakening, and major downstream industries have not improved, and will continue to weaken seasonally. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm market sentiment, and the short - term trend maintains a volatile and stable situation. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].