价格和基差：本周价格中枢稍有抬升，上海螺纹3040元，北京螺纹3040元，广州螺纹3000元；上海螺纹 基差-6元；上海热卷3300元，乐从热卷3270元，上海热卷基差50元。螺纹基差走强；热卷基差走弱。跨 期价差走弱，1-5价差下跌。 成本和利润：成本端，钢联样本煤矿开工率和日产维持低位，同比处于较低水平；原煤库存和精煤库存 维持去库。铁矿需求维持高位，小幅累库。近期钢材利润高位下滑明显，铁元素成本下降，碳元素成本 有支撑。目前利润从高到低依次是钢坯>热卷>螺纹>冷卷。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 观点：本周五大材表需修复较好，已经接近去年同期水平。但表外材需求同比偏低。当前板材（热卷、 带钢、镀锌）累库较多，带钢持续两周减产，库存转为去库。唐山继烧结减产后，高炉有限产预期。如 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a stabilization in spot prices, but the basis is weakening, indicating potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics [1] Supply - Iron element production increased by 5% year-on-year from January to September, but the growth rate is expected to narrow due to high base effects from last year's fourth quarter [3] - There are signs of reduced iron water production, with a decrease of 10,000 tons to 2.39 million tons [3] - Production of the five major steel materials is stable year-on-year, with a slight increase in October, rising by 84,000 tons to 8.65 million tons [3] Demand - Domestic demand remains weak, but there are expectations of policy support in the fourth quarter, with the Ministry of Finance announcing an early issuance of local government debt limits for 2026 [4] - Steel exports remain high, with recent price declines providing support for exports [4] - Total demand for steel increased by 1.7 million tons to 8.92 million tons, indicating a recovery post-National Day holiday [4] Inventory - Inventory of the five major steel materials decreased by 270,000 tons to 15.548 million tons, with specific reductions in rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories [5] - Current production levels are below demand, suggesting that inventory levels may continue to decline seasonally [5] Profit and Cost - Steel profits have significantly declined from their previous highs, with the order of profitability being steel billets > hot-rolled coils > rebar > cold-rolled coils [2] - Coal prices remain strong, making it difficult for costs to decrease significantly [6] Market Outlook - The current demand is approaching seasonal peaks, and if maintained, inventory may shift to seasonal depletion [6] - Steel mills are expected to continue facing profit declines, which may suppress production levels [6]