整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 铁矿石： 供应持续高增 建议空配为主 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 晨报 铁矿石 需求方面：国内铁矿石需求主要取决于钢厂利润水平以及钢材库存去化程度，由于今年气温 偏高，工地开工或提前，市场对需求仍有一定乐观预期。短期来看，终端需求出现超预期增长概 率偏低，后期关注钢材库存去化节点以及复工强度。从季节性规律来看，铁水进入回升周期，后 期更多关注回升速度以及高度，从当前钢厂利润水平以及需求预期来看，回升速度保持相对平缓。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢厂端节后仍存在补库需求，但补库强度和持续性仍取决于终端需求复苏情况； 从当前疏港水平来看，港口库存仍将处于累积状态，叠加现货价格走弱，预期短期港口库存累积 压力仍保持高压态势。同时，注意贸易受限库存的潜在抛售风险。 原材料： 冯艳成 观点：短期宏观预期偏弱，铁矿石供需矛盾持续积累，供给同比保持高增，铁矿石需求仍受 产业链利润限制，建议空配为主。 价格：预期区间在 93~100 美元/吨（6 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong performance. Under the influence of macro - news speculation, the low - price situation improved slightly, but the actual demand was poor and the trading volume was average. Currently, steel mills are reducing production and the inventory pressure is not high, so they have a strong willingness to raise prices. In the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand is not significant, but due to lack of confidence, the price increase is under pressure [1]. - In the short term, with the fermentation of macro - sentiment and the rhythmic support of low - inventory destocking, the market price may fluctuate and tend to be strong. However, there are still important risk factors among the variables derived from time. It is recommended to focus on changes in market sentiment and the trend of raw fuels [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The steel market was strong this week. Macro - news speculation improved the low - price situation, but actual demand was poor and trading was average. Steel mills' production cuts and low inventory pressure led to a strong willingness to raise prices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are small, but price increases are pressured by lack of confidence [1]. - In the short term, the market price may fluctuate and strengthen due to macro - sentiment and low - inventory destocking support. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and raw fuel trends [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal production was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons (-1.16%). - Rebar steel mill inventory was 1.3954 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,600 tons (-0.89%). - Rebar social inventory was 3.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 257,000 tons (-7.59%). - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory was 0.8342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons (-0.73%). - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 3.073 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,600 tons (-1.84%) [3]. Futures Market Review The report provides multiple figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 01 - 05 spread, hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [6][8]. Spot Market Review The report includes figures on the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [12][13]. Fundamental Data The report presents figures on 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar steel mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [15][20][23][26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - This week, steel prices fluctuated and rose. With inventory depletion and some steel mills' maintenance production, market enthusiasm was generally high, the fundamentals warmed up slightly, and raw material support remained strong, resulting in a relatively high bottom for steel prices. Looking ahead, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, inventory depletion continues at a relatively fast pace, and currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. With the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and the overseas expectation of interest rate cuts, the macro - environment is favorable, and it is expected that the futures prices will fluctuate widely at low levels [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - As of December 5th, the average price of 20mm grade - III earthquake - resistant rebar in major cities across the country was 3326 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 35 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3511 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 38 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal output was 232.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons (-1.01%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar steel mill inventory was 142.68 million tons, a decrease of 4.05 million tons (-2.76%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Rebar social inventory was 361.13 million tons, a decrease of 23.62 million tons (-6.14%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory was 79.92 million tons, an increase of 1.9 million tons (2.44%) compared to the previous period [3]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 320.43 million tons, a decrease of 2.45 million tons (-0.76%) compared to the previous period [3].

Price and Basis - The price center has slightly increased this week, with Shanghai rebar at 3040 yuan, Beijing rebar at 3040 yuan, and Guangzhou rebar at 3000 yuan; Shanghai rebar basis at -6 yuan; Shanghai hot rolled at 3300 yuan, Lecong hot rolled at 3270 yuan, and Shanghai hot rolled basis at 50 yuan. Rebar basis has strengthened while hot rolled basis has weakened. The inter-period price difference has weakened, with the 1-5 price difference declining [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, the operating rate and daily output of coal mines in the Steel Union sample remain low, year-on-year at a low level; raw coal and coking coal inventories are in a destocking phase. Iron ore demand remains high with slight inventory accumulation. Recently, steel profits have significantly declined from high levels, with iron element costs decreasing and carbon element costs supported. Current profits from high to low are: steel billet > hot rolled > rebar > cold rolled [1] Supply - From January to September, iron element output increased by 5% year-on-year. Due to last year's high base in Q4, the annual growth rate is expected to narrow. There are signs of reduced iron water production, down by 10,000 tons to 2.39 million tons. This year, the incremental iron water is more directed towards steel billets and non-major materials, with major materials' output year-on-year remaining flat and limited growth. Since October, major materials' output has been running low, with a recent increase of 84,000 tons to 8.65 million tons (required 8.92 million tons). Among them, rebar output increased by 60,000 tons to 2.07 million tons, below the required amount (2.26 million tons). Hot rolled output increased by 6,000 tons to 3.225 million tons, slightly below the required amount (3.27 million tons). Previously, Tangshan had significant sintering production cuts, and market news indicates that due to environmental pressures, blast furnaces will limit production for a week next week [1] Demand - In terms of demand structure, domestic demand expectations remain weak; however, there is an expectation of policy support in Q4 (on the 18th, the Ministry of Finance announced the early issuance of the 2026 new local government debt limit). Exports remain high, and recent price declines support steel exports. During the National Day holiday, the required demand saw an out-of-season decline, but post-holiday demand continues to recover, with this period's required demand increasing by 17 to 8.92 million tons. Non-major materials' required demand remains flat compared to September; steel exports are temporarily stable, and the demand side has not collapsed. Year-on-year, due to last year's high basis in Q4, achieving a year-on-year increase in required demand this year is challenging. Among them, rebar required demand increased by 60,000 tons to 2.26 million tons; hot rolled required demand increased by 110,000 tons to 3.267 million tons [2] Inventory - The inventory of major materials decreased by 270,000 tons to 15.548 million tons; among them, rebar decreased by 186,000 tons to 6.22 million tons; hot rolled decreased by 40,000 tons to 4.15 million tons. Considering that the required demand has been restored to 8.927 million tons, and current production is below required demand, it is expected that the inventory center will maintain a year-on-year increase but show a declining trend month-on-month. From the destocking slope perspective, the destocking slope for rebar has steepened year-on-year, while the destocking slope for hot rolled is relatively gentle; attention should be paid to the progress of future production cuts in Tangshan [2] Outlook - This week, the required demand for major materials has recovered well, approaching last year's level. However, the year-on-year demand for off-market materials is relatively low. Currently, there is significant inventory accumulation for flat products (hot rolled, strip steel, galvanized), with strip steel experiencing two weeks of production cuts, leading to a shift to destocking. Following the sintering production cuts in Tangshan, there are limited production expectations for blast furnaces. If blast furnace production cuts can alleviate flat product inventory pressure, steel prices are expected to stabilize. On the cost side, carbon element costs are supported, while iron ore is expected to see slight inventory accumulation due to declining iron water expectations, which is anticipated to affect the material-mining ratio. Steel prices have declined significantly in the previous period, and steel mill profits have decreased. Before the inventory of flat products is alleviated, steel mill profits will continue to decline, suppressing production release. The January contract for rebar and hot rolled is expected to stabilize around 3000 and 3200 yuan, respectively, transitioning to a range-bound trend. The current strategy suggests to remain cautious. The long coal and short hot rolled arbitrage can continue to be held. Considering the recovery of hot rolled required demand to high levels and the expected production cuts in Tangshan, it is advisable to gradually exit the short position on the rebar-hot rolled spread. Until the steel production and inventory are cleared, steel mill profits will continue to converge [3]