近期钾肥价格飙升，市场传闻由其生产的部分复合肥即将禁止出口？具体情况如何？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

全球钾肥近况更新及行情展望 20250716 摘要 钾肥价格大幅上涨抑制消费，从 700 元/吨飙升至 3,200-3,400 元/吨， 导致 5 月份国内消费量同比下降 28%，上半年整体消费略微减少 0.88%。 全球钾肥供需呈现供需双振态势，供给端偏紧，中国钾肥进口依赖度高。 俄罗斯和白俄罗斯的矿山检修和地缘政治风险导致海运与陆运受阻，影 响全球供应。 中国为保障化肥供应，增加骨干企业供应，稳定市场预期，加强与主要 出口国合作，提高运输效率。6 月签订的大合同价格已是全球洼地，7 月会议决定增加供应并推动回归合理水平。 受国际形势影响，俄乌战争、制裁、红海航运受阻等因素制约钾肥进口。 若战争结束且西方解除封锁，钾肥价格可能回落，刺激消费。国内生产 成本较高，国外开采成本较低。 秋季备肥将带动钾肥需求大幅提升，复合肥企业开工率回升进一步推动 需求。厂商或贸易商可能提前采购以应对价格波动，大合同价格和运费 模式提供支撑。 Q&A 当前国内钾肥的供应情况如何？企业库存、港口库存及国储库存现状如何？ 从今年年初开始，钾肥价格大幅上升，国内经历了三次抛储，对钾肥价格上涨 有一定遏制作用，但整体价格仍较去年大幅提升 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent meeting on potassium fertilizer supply and price stabilization highlighted concerns over abnormal price increases, with companies committing to enhance market supply to bring prices back to reasonable levels [1] - As of July 11, prices for various potassium fertilizers at Qingdao and Zhanjiang ports showed significant weekly increases, with prices rising by 5.9% to 4.48% [1] - The price for the 2025 annual potassium fertilizer import contract was agreed at $346 per ton CFR, reflecting a $73 per ton increase from the 2024 contract price [1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - In the first half of the year, the market price of potassium chloride surged by 800 to 1000 yuan per ton, prompting government intervention through the release of state reserves to stabilize prices [2] - The total auction volume for state reserves reached 1.1 million tons, aimed at supporting downstream compound fertilizer factories and direct agricultural users [2] Group 3: Company Performance - Companies in the potassium fertilizer sector reported substantial profit growth due to rising prices, with Oriental Iron Tower expecting a net profit increase of 63.8% to 79.78% in the first half of the year [3] - Yaqi International projected a net profit increase of 170% to 244%, attributing this to stable production, increased sales, and higher selling prices [3] - Cangge Mining announced an expected net profit increase of 34.93% to 46.49%, with significant contributions from its investment in a copper company and its potassium chloride business [4] Group 4: Future Demand - According to Argus, global potassium fertilizer demand is projected to rise to 74.3 million tons by 2025, with significant demand expected from Asia, Latin America, and North America [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry as of July 15, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer prices are experiencing a continuous recovery, benefiting companies with abundant resources [2] - Domestic production of potassium chloride has decreased year-on-year, while inventory levels remain low, indicating a tightening supply [3] - The potassium fertilizer market is characterized by an oligopoly, with geopolitical conflicts introducing uncertainties that may affect supply and pricing [4] Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, domestic prices for potassium chloride have risen significantly, with prices at 3339 CNY/ton and 3000 CNY/ton, marking increases of 823 CNY/ton and 450 CNY/ton since the beginning of the year [2] - In Q2 2025, the average price for domestic potassium chloride was 2993.95 CNY/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 105.50 CNY/ton and a year-on-year increase of 597.50 CNY/ton [2] Domestic Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, China's potassium chloride production totaled 2.53 million tons, a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year, with June's production at 416,300 tons, down 27.9% year-on-year [3] - Domestic market inventory stands at 1.768 million tons, down 820,000 tons since the beginning of the year, indicating a tight supply situation [3] Market Structure and Geopolitical Risks - The global potassium fertilizer market is dominated by a few countries, primarily Canada, Russia, and Belarus, creating an oligopolistic structure [4] - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S. imposing tariffs on potassium fertilizer imports from Canada and Mexico, and conflicts involving Israel, pose risks to supply and pricing stability [4] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that companies with rich potassium resources are likely to benefit from the ongoing market recovery, with specific companies mentioned as potential investment targets [9]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Yaqi International (亚钾国际) is expected to improve significantly in the first half of 2025, with projected net profits between 730 million and 930 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 170% to 244% due to stable production and rising prices of potassium fertilizers [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Yaqi International anticipates a net profit of 7.3 billion to 9.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a substantial increase compared to the same period last year [2][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 12.13 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 91.47%, with a net profit of 3.84 billion yuan, up 373.53% [4]. - In 2023, the company faced a decline in net profit to 1.235 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.12% year-on-year, while revenue was 3.898 billion yuan, a growth of 12.45% [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The potassium fertilizer market has seen a recovery in prices since 2025, with significant increases in both domestic and international markets, contributing to Yaqi International's improved performance [1][4]. - The price of potassium chloride products has risen, with domestic prices reaching 2,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan from the previous month [4]. Group 3: Production and Capacity - Yaqi International has a potassium salt mining right in Laos covering 263.3 square kilometers, with an estimated pure potassium chloride resource reserve of approximately 1 billion tons [1][6]. - The company has been expanding its production capacity, aiming to add 1 million tons of potassium fertilizer annually, and has recently completed the third phase of its large red granular potassium expansion project, achieving a total capacity of nearly 900,000 tons per year [6][7]. Group 4: Shareholder Changes - The share transfer process is ongoing, with a significant transaction involving the transfer of 46.2 million shares from Zhongnong Group to Huili Group, which will make Huili Group the largest shareholder of Yaqi International [1][8]. - Huili Group has previously acquired a 9.01% stake in Yaqi International for 1.466 billion yuan and plans to provide up to 1.8 billion yuan in loans to support the company's strategic development [8].

Core Viewpoint - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a price increase due to the signing of large contracts and a shortage of supply, with domestic prices approaching earlier highs in 2023 [1] Price Trends - As of late June, the benchmark ex-factory price for domestic salt lake potassium chloride (60% KCl) is 2700 CNY per ton, an increase of 100 CNY per ton from the previous month, nearing the year's high points from February and March [1] - The market price for potassium fertilizer in Laos has also risen, reaching approximately 3150 CNY per ton by the end of June, which is an increase of over 150 CNY per ton prior to the signing of large contracts [1] - Some distributors are quoting prices as high as 3350 CNY per ton, matching the year's peak [1]

钾肥景气展望 20250618 摘要 钾肥大合同落地，价格同比上涨约 26%，中国仍具价格优势。短期内， 6-7 月价格预计筑底，8-9 月秋季肥需求启动，港口价格或在 3,000- 3,200 元波动，10-11 月需求反弹，高位震荡可能性大。 秋季钾肥市场需求预计达 900 万吨，种植面积增加或小幅提升需求。港 口库存已低于 250 万吨安全线，对下游心态有积极影响，但需求分散可 能抑制上涨速度。中国大合同价格低于巴西现货，提供市场支撑。 预计 2025 年 10 月至年底钾肥价格高位震荡，冬季储备期较长，价格 或有 100 元波动。俄罗斯乌拉尔减产，国际局势紧张可能影响海运及运 价。国产钾方面，藏格控股停产一个月，老挝钾供应预计平稳。 2026 年甲醇价格预计"上有顶，下有底"，受老挝钾成本、国储调节 机制及大合同成本支撑，价格区间预计在 2,800-3,300 元。关注老挝钾 产量及运输计划对国内外分配的影响。 中国边贸钾肥进口主要通过东北等地，量较稳定，上半年约 70-80 万吨。 边贸合同价格略低于大合同，但考虑运费等因素，对国内现货价格影响 有限，市场定价由主要代理商平衡。 Q&A 今年（202 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 中印大合同签订，钾肥价格重心上移 事件描述 据中国无机盐协会消息，2025 年 6 月 12 日，中国钾肥进口谈判小组（中化、 中农、中海化学）与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就 2025 年钾肥年度进口合 同价格达成一致，合同价格为 346 美元/吨 CFR。此前在 2025 年 6 月 5 日， 印度钾肥进口大合同价格确定为 349 美元/吨，该价格由俄罗斯钾肥公司 （BPC）与印度化肥进口商 IPL 达成，今年计划发货 65 万吨。 事件点评 中印 25 年钾肥大合同价格涨幅超过 25%，中国仍是全球钾肥"价格洼地"。 据中国无机盐协会消息，2025 年 6 月 12 日，中国钾肥进口谈判小组（中化、 中农、中海化学）与食安供应链有限公司（迪拜）就 2025 年钾肥年度进口合 同价格达成一致，合同价格为 346 美元/吨 CFR，较去年大合同增长 73 美元 /吨，同比上涨 26.7%。此前在 2025 年 6 月 5 日，印度钾肥大合同价格为 349 美元/吨，较去年同比上涨 25%，该价格由俄罗斯钾肥公司（BPC）与印度化 肥进口商 IPL 达成，今年计划发货 65 万吨。据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic potassium fertilizer prices in China are expected to remain stable, influenced by international market conditions and supply-demand dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Price Agreements and Trends - The China potassium fertilizer import negotiation group has reached an agreement with a Dubai-based company for the 2025 import contract price at $346 per ton, which is an increase of $73 per ton compared to last year's $273 per ton CFR price [2]. - The new contract price is $3 per ton lower than the recent large contract signed by India, indicating that China continues to maintain a competitive position in the global potassium fertilizer market [2]. - International potassium fertilizer prices have been rising due to reduced production in Russia and Belarus, leading to a tight global supply [2]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Industry experts predict that the signing of the large contract will support high international prices, while domestic supply and demand remain weak, leading to a stable market with narrow fluctuations [2]. - The Secretary-General of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association's Potassium Salt and Fertilizer Branch noted that the overall tight supply and gradual price increase in the international potassium fertilizer market align with market expectations [2]. - The execution of new contracts is expected to ensure supply for the second half of this year and the spring of next year, playing a crucial role in supporting agricultural production and national food security [3].

事件：公司公布2024 年年报，2024 年公司实现营业收入35.48亿元，同比下滑8.97%，实现归属母公司 的净利润9.50 亿元，同比下滑23.05%，扣非后的归母净利润8.92 亿元，同比下滑30.00%，基本每股收 益1.04 元。公司同时公布2025 年一季报，一季度公司实现营业收入12.13 亿元，同比增长91.47%，净利 润3.84 亿元，同比增长373.53%，扣非后的净利润3.84亿元，同比增长376.02%，基本每股收益0.42 元。 2024 年钾肥价格下行压制业绩。公司以钾肥为主业，钾肥资源储量丰富，在老挝拥有我国第一个实现 境外生产的钾肥基地，也是东南亚地区产量规模最大的钾肥企业。在稳产优产的基础上，2024 年公司 钾肥产量181.54 万吨，同比增长10.24%，再创历史新高，销量174.14 万吨，同比增长8.42%。其中四季 度产量49.17 万吨，同比增长4.62%，销量50 万吨，同比增长20.16%。价格方面，2024 年钾肥价格总体 低位运行。根据卓创资讯数据，我国氯化钾全年均价2486.65 元/吨，同比下跌17.56%。公司全年钾肥销 售均价1989.47 元 ...