Report Summary 1. Report Title - "Supply and Demand Lack Drive, Market Fluctuates Widely - Ferroalloy Weekly Report 20250818" [1] 2. Analyst Information - Research and Consulting Department: Peng Bohan - Contact: 0371 - 58630083 - Email: pengbh_qh@ccnew.com - Professional Certificate Number: F3076814 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0016415 [2] 3. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Views - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The market had wide - range fluctuations last week, with the focus shifting down in the second half of the week. Fundamentally, production increased, demand was in a weak off - season pattern, and the market was mainly driven by macro and coal industry policies, showing a short - term range - bound and center - rising trend [4]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The market had wide - range fluctuations last week, with continuous decline from Tuesday. Fundamentally, production increased, demand was weak in the off - season, and the market was dominated by macro and coal industry policies, also showing a short - term range - bound and center - rising trend [23] 5. Summary by Variety Silicon Ferroalloy - **Supply**: 136 independent silicon ferroalloy enterprises had a weekly output of 11.28 tons (up 3.4% week - on - week and 10.6% year - on - year), and the production increase continued to expand, with the operating rate reaching a 4 - month high [4][6]. - **Demand**: Weak and stable. The consumption of silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products was 2.03 tons (up 0.2% week - on - week and 16.5% year - on - year), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 871.63 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week and 12.04% year - on - year) [7][9]. - **Inventory**: Manufacturers' inventory decreased. Enterprise inventory was 6.52 tons (down 9.18% week - on - week and up 5.44% year - on - year), and the steel mill inventory days in July were 14.25 days (down 1.13 days month - on - month and 0.98 days year - on - year) [10][12]. - **Cost**: Prices remained stable during the week. Although some raw material prices changed slightly, the overall cost and profit situation varied in different regions [13][15]. - **Futures and Spot**: The futures market had a slight premium. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 20,916 (up 1,270 week - on - week and 7,182 year - on - year), and the basis of the 09 contract in Ningxia was - 132 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week [16][18]. - **Contract Position and Precipitated Funds**: Data on position and precipitated funds were presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries were not provided in the text [19][20] Manganese Ferroalloy - **Supply**: 121 independent manganese ferroalloy enterprises had a weekly output of 20.7 tons (up 5.7% week - on - week and 3.5% year - on - year), and the production increase continued to expand, with the operating rate in Inner Mongolia rising to the highest level since March [23][25]. - **Demand**: Stable with a slight increase. The weekly consumption of manganese ferroalloy was 12.53 tons (up 0.1% week - on - week and 15.3% year - on - year), and the weekly output of five major steel products was 871.63 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week and 12.04% year - on - year) [26][28]. - **Inventory**: The decline in factory inventory slowed down. Enterprise sample inventory was 15.88 tons (down 1.67% week - on - week and 28.8% year - on - year), and the steel mill inventory days in July were 14.24 days (down 1.25 days month - on - month and 1.19 days year - on - year) [29][31]. - **Cost**: Manganese ore prices fluctuated. The inventory of manganese ore in ports increased slowly, and the cost and profit of manganese ferroalloy production in different regions changed slightly [36][39]. - **Futures and Spot**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased steadily. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 74,797 (down 1,248 week - on - week and 60,999 year - on - year), and the basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was 124 yuan/ton, up 20 week - on - week [32][35]. - **Contract Position and Precipitated Funds**: Data on position and precipitated funds were presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries were not provided in the text [40][41]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Yesterday's steel data showed that the apparent demand recovered but continued to decline after reaching a peak. The daily average pig iron output and the output of five major steel products decreased, while the inventory continued to be depleted. The apparent demand in May decreased slightly compared to April. After the tariff reduction, the export orders improved. The steel market is characterized by strong supply and demand at the industrial end, continuous inventory depletion, and support from export and re - export. With low inventory support, the improvement of macro - sentiment is expected to repair the valuation. Attention should be paid to the transmission of terminal restocking to the spot market. For the October contract, the pressure range for rebar is 3200 - 3250, and for hot - rolled coil is 3300 - 3400 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3240 yuan/ton, while the hot - rolled coil spot price in North China remained unchanged at 3230 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs of steel billet, plate billet, and different steel production methods (such as Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar and converter rebar) had different changes. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also showed fluctuations. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 6 yuan/ton to 3323 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 15 yuan/ton to 113 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the output of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons to 868.4 tons, the rebar output increased by 3.0 tons to 226.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 8.4 tons to 312.0 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons to 1430.7 tons, the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons to 619 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons to 347.6 tons [1]. - **Trading Volume and Demand**: The daily average trading volume of building materials decreased by 2.0 tons to 10.0 tons, the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons to 913.8 tons, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 46.4 tons to 260.3 tons, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil increased by 20.0 tons to 329.5 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View Yesterday, the iron ore 09 contract fluctuated, and the 5 - 9 spread continued to rise. Fundamentally, the daily average pig iron output reached a peak and then declined this week, and the port clearance volume increased slightly. It is expected that the pig iron output will remain at a high level in the short term. The finished steel data shows resilience, with the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil and rebar rebounding and the overall inventory depletion pattern continuing. The inventory of iron ore decreased slightly under the high - level pig iron output, and the steel mill inventory remained low. The terminal demand of finished steel determines the sustainability of the high - level pig iron output, and the marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure. Currently, the steel billet export exceeds expectations. In the future, the supply - demand pressure of iron ore will increase as the overseas mine shipments peak in May - June and the arrival peak has not yet come. In addition, the improvement of macro - expectations may bring sentiment repair. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders (such as Carajás fines, PB fines) decreased slightly, while the 09 contract basis of various iron ore powders increased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 6.5 yuan/ton to 65.0 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 38.5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Prices and Price Indexes**: The spot prices of different iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased slightly, the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased by 1.4 dollars/ton to 97.9 dollars/ton, and the Platts 62% Fe price increased by 1.6 dollars/ton to 102.8 dollars/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 95.1 tons to 2354.6 tons, the global weekly shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons to 3029.0 tons, and the monthly national import volume decreased by 22.4 tons to 9397.4 tons. The weekly daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 tons to 245.6 tons, the weekly daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 16.6 tons to 315.2 tons, the monthly national pig iron output increased by 859.5 tons to 7529.4 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output increased by 1687.2 tons to 9284.1 tons [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 102.2 tons to 14340.88 tons, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 376.1 tons to 8959.0 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills remained unchanged at 22.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View As of yesterday's close, the coke futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend. China's tariff reduction on the US since the 14th has driven a general rise in commodity prices due to macro - level benefits. On the spot side, the market proposed a price increase, but mainstream steel mills proposed a price cut for coke on the 13th, which is expected to be implemented on the 16th. After the May Day holiday, the ex - factory price of coke is temporarily stable, and the port trade price is weak. On the supply side, due to the increase in downstream pig iron output, coke enterprises have good orders and continuous improvement in production, and the coking profit has also been repaired. On the demand side, the pig iron output in May continued to be above 240 tons per day, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed. There is no obvious inventory accumulation downstream, but attention should be paid to the possibility of a decline in pig iron output in the future. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills is decreasing. Considering the steel mills' price cut for coke, the futures market is following the expected price - cut trend, and the fundamentals are still bearish. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke (equal - value) and pay attention to the signal of the coke price reaching a phased bottom [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Shanxi Grade 1 wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - Grade 1 coke remained unchanged. The coke 09 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1472 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1499 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread weakened to - 27. The weekly coking profit increased by 6 yuan/ton to 7 yuan/ton [5]. - **Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt and Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 899 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread strengthened to - 16. The weekly profit of sample coal mines decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 382 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, and the weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons to 244.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory decreased by 11.3 tons to 983.2 tons, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 94.3 tons, the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 7.2 tons to 663.8 tons, the available days of steel mills decreased by 0.1 days to 12.0 days, and the port inventory decreased by 4.0 tons to 225.1 tons [5]. - **Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes**: The coke supply - demand gap increased by 0.1 tons to - 4.5 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View As of yesterday's close, the coking coal futures showed a weak and fluctuating trend. China's tariff reduction on the US since the 14th has driven a general rise in commodity prices due to macro - level benefits. On the spot side, the market continued to decline slightly. The futures market, due to pessimistic market expectations, led the spot market in decline and showed a deep - discount structure, with large hedging pressure on the futures and weak willingness of long - position holders to support the price, remaining in a weak situation. The market auction was cold again, and the transaction prices of various coal types adjusted downward slightly. The supply - demand relaxation pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the output was at a relatively high level. For imported coal, the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level, and the import profit of seaborne coal continued to be inverted, with prices stable or slightly decreasing. On the demand side, the downstream blast furnace and coking plant operations increased slightly, and downstream users still mainly replenished inventory as needed. The pig iron output in May continued to be above 240 tons per day. As the peak season of steel (March - April) is coming to an end, attention should be paid to the possibility of the pig iron output reaching a peak and then declining after the holiday. In terms of inventory, the coal mine inventory continued to accumulate at a high level, with pressure to reduce prices for sales. The port inventory decreased faster, and the downstream inventory was at a low level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coil and short on coking coal (equal - value) and pay attention to the signal of the coking coal price reaching a phased bottom [5]. Summary by Directory - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt and Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) remained unchanged. The coking coal 09 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 883 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 899 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread strengthened to - 16. The weekly profit of sample coal mines decreased by 17 yuan/ton to 382 yuan/ton [5]. - **Overseas Coal Prices**: The arrival price of Australian Peak Downs coal increased by 0.6 dollars/ton to 204 dollars/ton, the warehouse - pick - up price of Hong Kong - Macau main - coking coal at Jingtang Port remained unchanged at 1280 yuan/ton, and the warehouse - pick - up price of Hong Kong - Macau thermal coal at Guangzhou Port decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 719 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply**: The weekly raw coal output increased by 2.8 tons to 895.8 tons, and the weekly clean coal output increased by 1.9 tons to 459.2 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The weekly daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.2 tons to 67.2 tons, and the weekly daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 19.4 tons to 230.3 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 31.7 tons to 884.9 tons, the available days decreased by 0.4 days to 9.9 days, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.0 tons to 791.2 tons, the available days increased by 0.1 days to 12.6 days, and the port inventory increased by 8.3 tons to 306.1 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures main contract showed a slight movement. Recently, environmental inspections have entered Inner Mongolia, and large - scale factories in Inner Mongolia may shut down furnaces, with an estimated daily output reduction of 800 tons. In addition, large - scale factories in the main production area of Ningxia have a cumulative daily output reduction of about 1400 tons this week. After the previous production reduction, the supply pressure has been relieved, and the factory inventory has continued to decrease, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. On the demand side, the pig iron output remains at a high level, the steel mill profit is repaired, and the apparent demand of steel products shows resilience, and the low - inventory pattern continues. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports in the future. In terms of non - ferrous demand, the price of metallic iron remains strong due to raw material factors, but the downstream demand support is limited, and the procurement is cautious. Overseas orders are poor, and inquiries are few. In terms of cost, the price of blue carbon is stable. With low inventory and supply reduction, the supply - demand contradiction is limited. In terms of electricity price, Ningxia will no longer use the electricity spot market settlement in May, and the electricity price may increase. The short - term electricity price fluctuation has come to an end. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon has been alleviated. The price change still depends on the cost. The price has temporarily stabilized, and with the release of macro - level benefits, it is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound, but the rebound is more due to valuation repair and macro - factors, and there is a lack of momentum for a strong upward trend [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: Yesterday, the ferromanganese main contract rose slightly. Fundamentally, ferromanganese production continued to be reduced, and the scope of production reduction in Inner Mongolia and Chongqing factories has expanded recently, and the output has accelerated its decline. Currently, affected by the continuous decline in the futures price, the hedging profit on the futures market is gradually in a loss state, and the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts have begun to decline. On the demand side, the pig iron output remains at a high level, the steel mill profit is repaired, and the apparent demand of steel products shows resilience, and the low - inventory pattern continues. Attention should be paid to the marginal change in exports in the future. In terms of manganese ore, the global manganese ore shipment decreased this week. Affected by the increase in the arrival of South African ore, the port inventory decreased, but considering the future manganese ore shipment plan, the arrival of manganese ore will still remain at a high level. Affected by the overseas mines' reduction of forward - period quotes, the import profit of port traders is inverted, and manganese ore is under the pressure of negative feedback in smelting and potential supply release. In the future, the short - term ferromanganese price will continue to fluctuate. With the warehouse receipts stopping increasing and starting to decrease, the cost support on the futures market is weakened, the supply - demand gap is narrowing, and at the same time, the cost of manganese ore has gradually stabilized due to the traders' profit inversion. Coupled with the positive macro - level factors, it is expected that the price will fluctuate, stabilize, and rebound, but the rebound is more due to valuation repair and macro - factors, and there is a lack of momentum for a strong upward trend [6]. Summary by Directory - **Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 18.0 yuan/ton to 5660.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferrosilicon in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Qinghai) showed various changes. The difference between the Inner Mongolia spot price and the main contract price increased by 18.0 yuan/ton to - 260.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Ferromanganese Spot Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton to 5876.0 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferromanganese in different regions (such as Inner Mongolia, Guangxi) remained unchanged. The difference between the Guangxi spot price and the main contract price decreased by 12