| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询 务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月26日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3290 | 3280 | 10 | 123 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | 63 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3370 | 0 | 203 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3225 | 3227 | -2 | રેટ | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3074 | 3071 | 3 | 216 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3167 | 3164 | 3 | 123 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3400 | 3400 | O | 42 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3330 | 3330 | O | -28 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | 337 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月25日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 副自 | 张庆 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | 116 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | ୧୧ | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3360 | 10 | 206 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3227 | 3212 | 15 | ਦੇਤੋ | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3071 | 3063 | 8 | 209 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3164 | 3155 | 9 | 116 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3400 | 3390 | 10 | 43 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3330 | 3330 | O | -27 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, prices have fallen from their highs, with significant declines in steel profits. There are expectations of seasonal demand improvement from September to October, but high production levels still pose a challenge to the demand - absorbing capacity during the peak season. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 after the September 3rd parade and steel demand during the peak season. Investment strategies include selling out - of - the - money put options and considering long positions in the steel - iron ore ratio [1]. - Regarding the iron ore industry, the current fundamentals lack a strong upward driver. Although the iron water output may decline slightly around the parade, it will remain at a relatively high level in September. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain. The strategy is to view it as a range - bound market, with the range reference of 750 - 810, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [3][4]. - In the coke industry, the futures market has shown volatile and downward trends. The supply will gradually become looser after the end of short - term production restrictions, and there is a possibility of price decline in the future. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [5]. - For the coking coal industry, the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand situation has eased, and prices may continue to fall in September. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Most steel prices have declined, with the exception of some contracts and regions where prices remained unchanged. For example, the spot price of rebar in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of the rebar 10 - contract increased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel production has generally decreased, while profits have declined significantly. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron water output decreased by 0.7 tons (- 0.3%), while the output of five major steel products increased by 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.9%, with the rebar inventory rising by 2.7% [1]. Market Analysis - In August, the supply - demand gap widened, and inventory accumulation was obvious. Entering September - October, there are expectations of seasonal demand improvement. However, high production levels still test the demand - absorbing capacity during the peak season [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of most iron ore varieties has increased significantly, and the 5 - 9 spread has widened. For example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 32.2 yuan/ton (351.5%) [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 7.3% week - on - week, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 5.5%. The demand side saw a decline in iron water output and a decrease in the average daily port clearance volume [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased slightly by 0.1%, while the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% [3]. Market Analysis - The fundamentals currently lack a strong upward driver. Although the iron water output may decline slightly around the parade, it will remain at a relatively high level in September. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal prices have shown different trends. Coke futures prices have fluctuated and declined, while coking coal futures prices have oscillated weakly. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [5]. Profit - Coking profits and sample coal mine profits have both decreased. The weekly coking profit decreased by 11, and the weekly sample coal mine profit decreased by 4 [5]. Supply and Demand - Coke supply has decreased due to production restrictions, and demand has also declined with the decrease in iron water output. Coking coal supply has been affected by mine accidents and production suspension, and demand has decreased due to steel and coking production restrictions [5]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories have shown different trends. Coke inventories have increased slightly overall, while coking coal inventories have decreased slightly in some sectors and increased in others [5]. Market Analysis - Coke supply will gradually become looser after the end of short - term production restrictions, and there is a possibility of price decline. Coking coal supply - demand has eased, and prices may continue to fall in September [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures indicate a volatile market, with supply tightening and demand showing signs of decline, leading to potential price adjustments in the near future [6] Supply - As of August 28, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 645,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.9% [3] - The total daily coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 461,000 tons, down by 0.6% week-on-week, resulting in a total production of 1,106,000 tons, which is a 1.6% decrease from the previous week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,401,300 tons as of August 28, reflecting a decrease of 620 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.20%, down by 0.16% week-on-week, while the iron-making capacity utilization rate was 90.02%, a decrease of 0.23% [4] - The profitability of steel mills was reported at 63.64%, down by 1.30% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of August 28, the total coking coal inventory was 9.44 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons [5] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 653,000 tons, up by 9,000 tons week-on-week, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.101 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons [5] - Port inventory stood at 2.687 million tons, with a slight increase of 1,000 tons week-on-week [5] Price Movements - The main coking coal futures contract closed at 1,596.5, up by 2.0 (+0.13%), while the far-month contract closed at 1,689.0, down by 2.0 (-0.12%) [1] - The seventh round of price increases for coking coal was implemented at 50/55 yuan/ton, with the price for premium coking coal in Shanxi at 1,340 yuan/ton [1][6] - The eighth round of price increases faced resistance, with a steel plant in Ningxia reducing prices [1][6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to experience price adjustments due to improved coking profits and the gradual easing of production restrictions, leading to a potential increase in supply [6] - The steel industry is implementing strategies to control total production, which may negatively impact coal and coking coal demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, black commodities declined significantly, with iron ore and coking coal showing signs of catch - up decline. In August, steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the supply - demand gap widened, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The rebar market weakened first, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widened. - Entering September - October, there is an expectation of seasonal strengthening in demand. If the apparent demand recovers, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and inventory accumulation will slow down. However, high production levels still test the ability to absorb demand during the peak season. - Currently, steel prices have fallen from their highs. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have dropped to around 3100 yuan/ton and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the profit per ton of steel has declined significantly. - In terms of operations, the space for unilateral short - selling is limited. One can sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the significant contraction of steel mill profits and the expected reduction in coking coal production, one can consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global shipment volume of iron ore has increased significantly month - on - month to a high for the year, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has risen. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume will continue to increase gradually in the short term. - During the military parade in Tangshan, production restrictions and maintenance increased slightly, and the molten iron output decreased slightly from its high but remained at around 2.4 million tons per day. The impact of production restrictions this week will be reflected in molten iron output. - In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the outbound shipment volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity iron ore inventory decreased month - on - month. - After the military parade, molten iron output will decline slightly from its high, but the impact is not significant. Currently, there is no strong driving force for a significant increase in the fundamentals. Since steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, molten iron output will remain at a high level in September. - On the 28th, the work plan for stabilizing growth in the steel industry was released, proposing to strictly prohibit new production capacity and implement production reduction to control the total volume. The demand during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period is questionable. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the short - term for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Coke futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. After the spot price increase, it has temporarily stabilized, and the port trade quotation has slightly declined following the futures. - On the supply side, after the price increase was implemented, coking profits improved, but due to production restrictions in Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other places, coking enterprise operations decreased slightly. - On the demand side, the molten iron output from blast furnaces has declined from its high. This week, molten iron output may continue to decline, but the impact is limited due to the short duration. - In terms of inventory, coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all seen slight inventory increases. The overall inventory is at a medium level. - The steel industry's work plan for stabilizing growth is negative for coke demand. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotation is running weakly. - On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdowns for rectification, coal mine operations have decreased slightly month - on - month, sales have slowed down, and some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal has fallen following the futures, and downstream users are cautious about restocking. - On the demand side, due to production restrictions on Tangshan steel and coking in Shandong and Henan before the military parade, coking operations have decreased slightly, and the molten iron output from downstream blast furnaces has declined slightly from its high. This week, operations may continue to decline. - In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and borders have seen slight inventory increases, while coal washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills have seen slight inventory decreases. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. - The production restrictions caused by the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi are not enough to reverse the downward trend of the spot price. The coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short - sell the coking coal 01 contract on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in various regions and futures contracts have all declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3270 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3208 yuan/ton to 3165 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3347 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 3173 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 22 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products increased by 65,000 tons to 8.846 million tons, an increase of 0.7%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace output increased by 15,000 tons to 313,000 tons, an increase of 5.0%, and the converter output increased by 44,000 tons to 1.893 million tons, an increase of 2.4%. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.247 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased by 164,000 tons to 6.234 million tons, an increase of 2.7%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 3.655 million tons, an increase of 1.1%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 268,000 tons to 14.679 million tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.6 to 8.9, an increase of 6.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 48,000 tons to 8.578 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 94,000 tons to 2.042 million tons, an increase of 4.8%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.207 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 19.8 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 19.0 to - 58.5, a decrease of 48.1% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port have decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0%. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Jinshi 62% Fe index have also slightly decreased [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 1.327 million tons to 25.26 million tons, an increase of 5.5%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.568 million tons, an increase of 7.3%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.315 million tons to 104.623 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.6 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average outbound shipment volume at 45 ports (weekly) decreased by 71,000 tons to 318,600 tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.108 million tons to 70.797 million tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.526 million tons to 79.658 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory decreased by 357,000 tons to 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58,300 tons to 90.072 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coke products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coke decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1467 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%, and the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9 tons to 64.5 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 11,000 tons to 8.875 million tons, a decrease of 0.14%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 9,000 tons to 653,000 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 5,000 tons to 6.101 million tons, an increase of 0.1% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The estimated supply - demand gap of coke decreased by 13,000 tons to - 57,000 tons, a decrease of 22.4% [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coking coal products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coking coal decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 943 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.4%, and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.8% [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines remained unchanged at 860,500 tons, and the clean coal output increased by 18,000 tons to 444,500 tons, an increase of 0.4% [5]. Demand - The coke output (weekly) decreased, which affected the demand for coking coal [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9,000 tons to 116,700 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 51,000 tons to 9.613 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - In the first half of the year, steel supply and demand were both strong, with continuous inventory reduction, but prices were dragged down by coking coal costs and continued to fall. Currently, prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Demand has weakened slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the high growth of steel exports. In June, supply and demand were close to balance, and inventory stopped falling and remained flat. From July to August, it is the off - season for demand. In the second half of the year, the main interference factor for demand is still China - US tariffs, and the overall demand expectation remains weak. In the medium term, steel maintains a pattern of weak cost support and poor demand expectations. Due to the resumption of production in coking coal producing areas, prices have weakened again. It is recommended to try shorting at the current position or selling out - of - the - money call options [1][3] Coke Industry - As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices remained stable. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on June 23, with a cumulative reduction of 170/190 yuan/ton, and a phased bottom is gradually emerging, and market expectations are starting to improve. On the supply side, due to environmental inspections and maintenance, supply has tightened marginally, and independent coking plant开工 has declined. On the demand side, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, with rigid demand support, but blast furnace开工 decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued to decline after reaching its peak. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decline, and steel mill inventories decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the premium of coke futures over spot provides hedging space. It is recommended to hedge the Coke 2509 contract at high prices, stay on the sidelines for speculation, and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] Coking Coal Industry - As of the previous day's close, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices were stable with a slight upward bias. On the supply side, due to environmental protection and other factors, production in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has decreased, and coal mines are starting to hold prices. Although the overall production has decreased slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. Imported coal prices have rebounded slightly, but there is still obvious inventory pressure. On the demand side, coking plant开工 has started to decline, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production continues to decline after reaching its peak. However, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, and downstream demand still has resilience, and restocking demand shows signs of recovery. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventories are at a high level and are currently reducing inventory through production cuts. Ports are also reducing inventory from a high level, and downstream users are controlling inventory. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals have improved, and there is a hedging demand for spot merchants after basis repair. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3160 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also showed small increases [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3110 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also had small increases [1][3] Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The price of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2954 yuan/ton [1][3] - **Profit**: The profit of East China rebar increased by 18 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, the profit of North China rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China rebar increased by 8 yuan/ton to 157 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton, the profit of North China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 117 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coil increased by 18 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton [1][3] Production - **Daily Average Molten Iron Production**: It decreased slightly by 0.1 to 242.1 tons, with a decline rate of 0.0% [1][3] - **Five - major Steel Products Production**: It increased by 12.5 tons to 881.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.4% [1][3] - **Rebar Production**: It increased by 5.7 tons to 217.8 tons, with an increase rate of 2.7%. Among them, electric - arc furnace production increased by 1.6 tons to 25.0 tons, with an increase rate of 6.8%, and converter production increased by 4.1 tons to 192.9 tons, with an increase rate of 2.2% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Production**: It increased by 1.8 tons to 327.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.6% [1][3] Inventory - **Five - major Steel Products Inventory**: It increased slightly by 1.1 tons to 1340.0 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [1][3] - **Rebar Inventory**: It decreased by 2.1 tons to 549.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Inventory**: It increased by 1.0 tons to 341.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It remained unchanged at 10.5, with an increase rate of 0.4% [1][3] - **Five - major Steel Products Apparent Demand**: It decreased by 4.3 tons to 879.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [1][3] - **Rebar Apparent Demand**: It increased by 0.7 tons to 219.9 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Apparent Demand**: It decreased by 4.4 tons to 326.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [1][3] Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot Prices**: The price of Grade - A wet - quenched coke in Shanxi remained unchanged at 1094 yuan/ton, while the price of quasi - Grade - A wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton [5] - **Coke Futures Prices**: The Coke 09 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 1404 yuan/ton, and the Coke 01 contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 1443 yuan/ton [5] Supply - **Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production**: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production**: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Demand - **247 Steel Mills Molten Iron Production**: It increased slightly by 0.1 tons to 242.3 tons, with an increase rate of 0.0% [5] Inventory - **Total Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 12.0 tons to 940.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [5] - **Full - sample Coking Plant Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 2.6 tons to 113.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.2% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 6.5 tons to 627.8 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.04% [5] - **Port Inventory**: It decreased by 3.0 tons to 200.1 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5% [5] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.2 tons to - 5.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 3.84% [5] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot Prices**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 843 yuan/ton [5] - **Coking Coal Futures Prices**: The Coking Coal 09 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 825 yuan/ton, and the Coking Coal 01 contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 861 yuan/ton [5] Supply - **Fenwei Sample Coal Mine Production**: Raw coal production decreased by 3.6 tons to 852.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4%, and clean coal production decreased by 2.3 tons to 434.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [5] Demand - **Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production**: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production**: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Inventory - **Fenwei Coal Mine Clean Coal Inventory**: It decreased by 35.6 tons to 223.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 13.8% [5] - **Full - sample Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory**: It increased by 13.2 tons to 809.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.74% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Coking Coal Inventory**: It increased by 6.6 tons to 781.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.8% [5] - **Port Inventory**: It decreased by 17.7 tons to 285.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.8% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a slight strengthening of ferrous metals including steel, but it does not change the loose supply - demand pattern of Chinese steel. The short - term impact on market sentiment may be positive, but the downward trend remains. Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly but not reverse the downward trend. Suggested operations are to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the spot weakened slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 due to the risk of weakening demand in the off - season [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coke at a rebound to 1380 - 1430 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is suggested to short the 2509 contract of coking coal at a rebound to 800 - 850 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The ferrosilicon futures declined. The supply - demand contradiction has increased. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coal price changes [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure still exists, and the improvement in supply is insufficient due to weakening demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices and futures contracts declined slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased by 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output remained unchanged, while the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%, and the rebar output decreased by 5.0% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the rebar inventory decreased by 2.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.4% [1]. - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 16.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost and spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.3%, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 2.9%. However, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1%, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 4.1% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.2% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coke futures decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract increased by 6 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.6%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.2% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal futures decreased slightly, and the 09 basis increased by 11 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample mines decreased by 0.8%, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to increase, and the port inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferrosilicon decreased by 0.5%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferrosilicon production decreased by 2.3%, and the operating rate decreased by 4.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 3.5%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.1% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 3.3% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferromanganese decreased by 0.9%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferromanganese production increased by 0.9%, and the operating rate increased by 0.8% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferromanganese demand decreased by 2.9%, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased by 100.0% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 5.04%, and the average available days of inventory decreased by 1.9% [7].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月16日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 机信 | 前值 | 张跃 | 某差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3240 | 3250 | -10 | 90 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3230 | 3220 | 10 | 80 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3370 | 3360 | 10 | 220 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3075 | 3060 | 15 | 165 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3118 | 3127 | -d | 122 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3150 | 3155 | -5 | 90 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 28 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3230 | 3230 | O | -42 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US trade friction is at a standstill with high uncertainty, and there are still domestic policy expectations. In the short term, the hot metal production remains at a high level, providing some support for the raw material demand. The supply - demand contradiction of coke is not significant, and the supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose. Before the holiday, it is expected to fluctuate mainly. To avoid policy risks, it is recommended to continue to reduce short positions and hold a light position during the holiday [4][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke 3.1.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The second - round price increase of spot coke has started but not yet landed, and the spot price is mainly stable. The coke 09 contract rose 0.87% to 1566 as of Friday's close. The freight rate of coke by truck remained stable last week [8][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and coke supply increased significantly. As of April 25, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises nationwide was 75.36%, a week - on - week increase of 1.85 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 66.85 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.52 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills' coking was 87.55%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points; the daily average coke output was 47.47 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.07 tons [28][34] 3.1.3 Demand - Hot metal production accelerated its recovery, and steel mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. As of April 25, the blast furnace start - up rate of 247 sample steel mills was 84.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.77 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 91.6%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4435 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 42,300 tons; the steel mill profitability rate was 57.58%, a week - on - week increase of 2.6 percentage points. The speculative sentiment was average, export profits declined, and the spot trading volume of building materials remained low [37][40] 3.1.4 Inventory - Steel mills made rigid - demand purchases, coke enterprises slightly reduced their inventories, and the total inventory decreased slightly. As of April 25, the total coke inventory decreased by 29,600 tons week - on - week to 1.0148 million tons. Among them, the port inventory decreased by 25,200 tons week - on - week to 243,580 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 23,900 tons week - on - week to 104,870 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory increased by 19,500 tons week - on - week to 666,350 tons [43][46] 3.1.5 Profit - Coke enterprises' profitability continued to recover, and the coke futures profit fluctuated. The national sample of 30 independent coke enterprises had a loss of 9 yuan per ton of coke, a week - on - week increase of 7 yuan. The futures profit of coke 09 increased by 3.45 yuan per ton week - on - week to 323.2 yuan per ton [54] 3.1.6 Valuation - Coke 09 had a slight premium, and the 9 - 1 spread strengthened slightly. The basis of coke 09 decreased by 13.5 week - on - week to - 79.39, and the 9 - 1 spread increased by 17 week - on - week to - 28.5 [58] 3.2 Coking Coal 3.2.1 Price - Macro sentiment dominates, and it is expected to fluctuate before the holiday. The spot price mainly weakened. The coking coal 09 contract rose 0.37% to 956 as of Friday's close [4][61] 3.2.2 Supply - The impact of coal mine production cuts was limited, the operating rate of coal washing plants increased, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased, and the import of coking coal from January to March 2025 increased slightly year - on - year. As of April 25, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants nationwide was 63.01%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11 percentage points; the daily average output of clean coal was 534,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13,400 tons. From January to March 2025, China's cumulative import of coking coal was 27.47 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of 2.32% [72][76] 3.2.3 Inventory - Downstream enterprises reduced their inventories, coal mines accumulated inventories, and the total inventory remained flat. As of April 25, the total coking coal inventory increased by 1,000 tons week - on - week to 2.61251 million tons. Among them, the inventory of coking coal in mining enterprises increased by 212,600 tons week - on - week to 354,600 tons; the port inventory decreased by 125,900 tons week - on - week to 324,790 tons; the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 3,500 tons week - on - week to 181,680 tons; the all - sample independent coke enterprises' inventory decreased by 71,700 tons week - on - week to 968,960 tons; the 247 sample steel mills' inventory decreased by 17,500 tons week - on - week to 782,480 tons [79][82] 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 had a slight discount, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. The basis of coking coal 09 decreased by 3.5 week - on - week to 14, and the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged week - on - week at - 48 [101]