Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The production cut expectations at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke have been realized, and production will gradually resume in the short term, but the resumption process remains to be observed; the market sentiment is generally cooling down, and prices are under pressure [3] Group 3 Market condition summary - Yesterday, the overall prices of coking coal and coke futures first declined and then rose, with a slight increase during the night session. As the 09 contract entered the delivery month, the futures prices moved from premium to flat or even discount due to weak willingness to buy for delivery, dragging down the prices of other contracts. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak trading, with prices stable or slightly lower. Hebei steel mills started to lower coke prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on September 8, 2025 [2] Supply situation - Since this week, affected by the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi have carried out centralized maintenance, mostly for 2 - 3 days. The regional and large - scale shutdown of coal mines, combined with the cancellation of night shifts in some areas, led to a significant decline in production. However, as most coal mines had short shutdown times and many resumed production on September 4, the coking coal production in the main producing areas is expected to recover rapidly next week [2] Demand situation - This week, the steel mill production cut expectations were realized. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mill blast furnaces was 228.84 tons, a decrease of 11.29 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 6.23 tons year - on - year. The production cut was more obvious in the Tangshan market. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, with a few delaying the resumption. In the short term, hot metal production tends to recover, but according to past experience, it is usually difficult for production to return to pre - cut levels after a decline in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, and raw material demand will face challenges later [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short - term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [4][6]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue wide - range oscillations in the near future [12]. - The iron ore price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, as the factors driving price increases are weakening [17]. - Silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are expected to have bottom - oscillating trends recently [22]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Related Information**: As of August 26, the sample construction site fund availability rate was 59.22%, up 0.43 percentage points week - on - week. The national new local government bond issuance in the first seven months was 3315.9 billion yuan [2]. - **Spot Price**: Shanghai rebar was 3290 yuan, Beijing rebar was 3230 yuan, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 yuan (+20), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil was 3360 yuan [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector declined in the night session. Steel production resumed, with rebar increasing and hot - rolled coil slightly decreasing. Steel exports were resilient, and downstream construction site funds improved marginally. As the parade approaches, iron - water production is expected to decrease, putting short - term pressure on steel prices. After August, the coal daily consumption will decline, and the blast furnace may resume production rapidly, potentially worsening the steel fundamentals [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; Arbitrage: Short the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread; Option: Wait and see [7][8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: The average national profit per ton of coke was 55 yuan/ton. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average iron - water output was 240.13 tons, down 0.62 tons week - on - week [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke oscillated widely without a clear direction. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. The eighth round of coke price increase was not responded to by steel mills. The coal mine safety work is expected to be stricter, and the iron - water output will decline, with little change in the overall supply - demand relationship of coking coal [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wide - range oscillation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Futures - cash: Wait and see [13]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The PB powder spot price at Qingdao Port was 781 (+13), and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract was 33 [15][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The iron ore price fell 0.7% in the night session. The shipments of mainstream mines increased year - on - year in the past month, and the non - mainstream ore shipments in August were at a high level year - on - year. The growth rate of manufacturing and infrastructure investment slowed down, suppressing the terminal steel demand [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was clearly given for iron ore in the text, only a note that the views are for reference only [18]. Ferroalloys - **Related Information**: On the 28th, the semi - carbonate Mn36% at Tianjin Port was quoted at 34 yuan/ton degree, and the Gabon block Mn46% was quoted at 40 yuan/ton degree. Comilog's October 2025 quotation for Gabon blocks to China was 4.27 US dollars/ton degree, unchanged from last month [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable to weak on the 28th. The supply growth slowed down, and the demand was supported by the increase in steel production and apparent consumption. For manganese - silicon, the manganese ore spot price was stable, and the manganese - silicon spot price decreased. The supply growth also slowed down, and the alloy demand was stable [21][22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillating; Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on the long - futures short - cash spread; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [23].