Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand situation of steel has improved, and steel prices will follow raw materials. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, steel supply - demand is expected to improve, but inventory pressure remains a key factor restricting steel prices. The price will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, and the de - stocking situation in the peak season and raw material price changes should be monitored later [1]. - Iron ore prices will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. As steel mills resume production, iron ore supply and demand contradictions have not further intensified, and high inventory will continue to suppress price performance in the long term. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, non - mainstream iron ore shipments, iron ore inventory, and negotiation progress [3]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and prices will run in a volatile manner. After the Two Sessions, coal mine production has gradually resumed, and the supply of coking coal has increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. The impact of the Middle East situation on coal prices should be noted later [5][6]. - The supply - demand of thermal coal has weakened, and coal prices are under short - term pressure. Coal supply has increased after the Two Sessions, while consumption has weakened due to seasonality. The impact of non - power coal consumption and restocking should be focused on later [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures prices fluctuated, and domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends. The trading volume of construction steel rebounded, with 10130 tons of national building materials traded. Due to the early implementation of fiscal policies, infrastructure and manufacturing investment improved from January to February [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. Building materials maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, and inventory is slightly higher than the same period. Plate production is relatively high, and demand is also resilient, but inventory pressure is greater than that of building materials. With the arrival of the peak season, supply - demand is expected to improve, but inventory pressure restricts price increases. The Middle East situation indirectly supports the bottom of steel prices. Steel prices will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated weakly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, with a total of 30.49 million tons, a 5.2% month - on - month increase. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly, with a total of 22.15 million tons, a 15.1% month - on - month decrease [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week. High ore prices have continuously stimulated supply, but the actual supply pressure has eased. As steel mills end production restrictions, hot metal output will increase. The supply - demand contradiction has not further intensified in the short term, and high inventory will continue to suppress prices in the long term [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The price of raw coal in the production area was relatively stable, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was about 1100 yuan/ton, showing a month - on - month increase. The cost of coking coal for furnaces increased, and coking profits were acceptable due to the rebound of chemical product prices [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the Two Sessions, coal mines in the production area gradually resumed production, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The overall supply of coking coal increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. Prices will remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of thermal coal in the main production areas fluctuated weakly, and the port price showed a downward trend. Coal supply in the production area increased steadily, and some terminal restocking demand was released. Port inventory continued to increase, while downstream demand was weak due to the approaching off - season. The import cost increased, and the price difference between domestic and foreign trade widened [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coal supply increased after the Two Sessions, while consumption weakened due to seasonality. Coal prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The impact of non - power coal consumption and restocking should be focused on later [8].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - The current supply - demand contradiction of coal and coke is general. The overall sentiment of the ferrous metal market is weak, and prices are running weakly. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to controlling position risks [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated weakly, with a slight rebound in night - trading, and overall continued the weak oscillation. Recently, the overall trend of steel and ore has been weak, and the seasonal off - season has restricted the rebound height of coal and coke [3] Supply Side - Last week, domestic coal mines began to shut down for holidays one after another. Mines in Yunnan, Jinzhong of Shanxi and other places had earlier holidays, and the output decline was obvious. Around the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month this week, private coal mines will enter the peak holiday period, with a sharp increase in shut - down mines and a significant output decline. Last week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.925 million tons and 755,000 tons respectively, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 tons and 16,000 tons [3] - The expected reduction in coal production has a certain support for coal prices, but the production cut basically follows the previous years' rules, and downstream has stocked up in advance, so there is no driving force for continuous increase [3] - Last week, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased slightly. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed during the Spring Festival in 2026, from the first to the fourth day of the first lunar month (February 17th to 20th), and will also be closed on February 15th and 22nd (Sundays) as usual [3] Demand Side - Steel mills' production is relatively stable, and the daily average pig iron output is maintained at around 2.28 million tons [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction of coal and coke is general, the overall sentiment in the ferrous metal market is weak, and prices are running weakly. Attention should be paid to the control of position risks in the last week before the Spring Festival [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated and closed slightly higher, but the prices weakened again at night. Recently, the overall trend of steel and ore has been weak, and the seasonal off - season has restricted the rebound height of coal and coke [3] Fundamental Situation - Last week, domestic coal mines began to stop production for holidays one after another. Mines in Yunnan, Jinzhong of Shanxi and other places had earlier holidays, and the output declined significantly. Around the 23rd day of the twelfth lunar month this week, private coal mines will enter the peak holiday period, with a sharp increase in shut - down mines and a significant decline in output. Last week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.925 million tons and 755,000 tons respectively, a decrease of 53,000 tons and 16,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week. The expectation of coal reduction has a certain support for coal prices, but the production reduction basically conforms to the previous years' rules, and downstream has stocked up in advance, so there is no continuous upward driving force [3] Import and Demand - Last week, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal decreased slightly. On the demand side, steel mill production was relatively stable, and the daily average pig iron output was maintained at around 2.28 million tons [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The coal and coke market sentiment is changeable, and the futures prices are oscillating. The overall weak trend of steel and ore recently, combined with the seasonal off - season, restrains the rebound height of coal and coke [2][3]. - The expected reduction in coal production supports the coal price to run strongly, but the production reduction basically conforms to the previous years' rules, and the downstream has stocked up in advance, so there is no continuous upward driving force [3]. - The suspension of exports by Indonesia and the fact that the US and India regard coking coal as strategic minerals have led to a stage - strong coking coal futures price, but the actual impact on China's supply is very limited, mainly affecting the market sentiment. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction in the coal and coke market is general, and prices are mainly affected by market sentiment changes [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Market Sentiment and Price Movement**: Yesterday, the market sentiment weakened, and the coal and coke futures prices oscillated and declined. The weak trend of steel and ore and the seasonal off - season limit the rebound of coal and coke prices [3]. - **Supply Side**: This week, domestic coal mines have gradually started to stop production for holidays. Mines in Yunnan, Jinzhong of Shanxi and other places have early holidays, with a significant decline in production. Around the 23rd day of the 12th lunar month next week, private coal mines will enter the peak holiday period, and production will drop sharply. This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.925 million tons and 755,000 tons respectively, a decrease of 53,000 tons and 16,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week [3]. - **Demand Side**: Steel mills' production is relatively stable, with the average daily hot metal output maintained at around 2.28 million tons [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand difference expectation for coal and coke is weak, and the valuation has been revised downward [3]. - The auction non - success rate of coking coal in online auctions remains high. Coke enterprises still expect a continuous decline in raw material spot prices, with low procurement sentiment. Downstream blast furnace production has decreased again on a week - on - week basis [4]. - The recovery of origin supply is still slow, but Mongolia maintains a high traffic volume. The market still has strong expectations for the recovery of future source production. The overseas interest - rate cut expectation has gradually become a consensus, but the domestic risk preference reflects the expectation of insufficient policy intervention. The current coal is in the supply - guarantee cycle, and the market's expectation for the recovery of future coal supply is still strong. Coupled with the blast furnace start - up data that has reached a phased peak, the demand space for coal and coke is also suppressed to some extent, leading to a significant decline in the previously high valuation of coal and coke recently [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 853.4 (-2.68); FW clean coal 438.18 (-0.57) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.53 (+0.77); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.62 (+0.30) | | Demand | Hot metal production 232.3 (-2.38) | Hot metal production 232.3 (-2.38) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +40.7; Mine clean coal +23.1; Independent coking -1.1; Mine raw coal +19.7; Steel mill coking -3.0; Port +2.0; FW port +6.6 | MS total inventory -1.7; Independent coking -6.1; Steel mill -0.3; Port +4.7 | | Profit | Commodity coal 543 (-16) | Average profit of coking enterprises 30 (-16) | | Warehouse receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1195 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1621 | [7] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - There are data on weekly and monthly production of coking coal, including 523 sample mine production, FW raw coal and clean coal production, and coking coal production from different sources. Mongolia's coal customs clearance data for different ports are also provided [9][11][13]. 3.2.2 Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 26.52 tons week - on - week to 194.67 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 20.06 tons week - on - week to 127.61 tons. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 296.5 tons, an increase of 2 tons week - on - week. - Coking plant inventory: There are data on inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises, including overall and regional data. - Steel mill inventory: There are data on inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises, including overall and regional data [24][26][29][35]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Capacity utilization: There are data on the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises, including overall and regional data, and data for different production capacities [38][40]. - Output: There are data on the daily output of independent coking enterprises and steel enterprises, including overall and historical data [42][44]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Coking plant inventory: There are data on the inventory of independent coking enterprises, including overall and historical data. - Steel mill inventory: There are data on the inventory, average available days, and regional inventory of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants. - Total inventory: There are data on the total inventory of coke, including overall and historical data [46][47][52]. 3.3.3 Demand - There is data on the daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises, which reflects the demand for coke [54]. 3.3.4 Profit - There are data on the profit of coking enterprises, including ton - coke average profit and ton - coke futures profit [57][58]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.4.1 Futures - Coking coal futures: There are data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of coking coal 2605 and 2601 futures contracts from November 28 to December 5, 2025, as well as the price change data [63]. - Coke futures: There are data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of coke 2601 and 2605 futures contracts from November 28 to December 5, 2025, as well as the price change data [65]. 3.4.2 Spot - There are data on the spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke, including car - loading prices of coking coal and summary prices of coke [71]. 3.4.3 Basis - The prices of double - coke futures are weak, and the basis remains high [74].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The macro - driving force has weakened, the sector is oscillating weakly; in the short term, the supply - demand of coal and coke has marginal fluctuations, generally remaining at a relatively high level, with no significant inventory pressure, and the price is oscillating in the range of 1080 - 1320 [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Situation - Affected by the weak prices of steel and ore, the futures prices of coal and coke followed the downward trend, and the prices fell after reaching the upper limit of the 1080 - 1320 oscillation range. The spot market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the third round of coke price increases has been gradually implemented, with a cumulative increase of 150 - 165 yuan/ton [2]. - The DCE issued an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard. The overall content has little change, mainly adjusting the premium and discount range of the reaction strength and sulfur content after coking coal is made into coke, and the new standard further aligns the mainstream delivery mines with Shanxi coal, having no impact on the current existing contracts [2]. Fundamental Data - Last week, the daily average output of coking coal from domestic coal mines was 75.8 tons, a slight decrease of 0.3 tons compared with the previous week [3]. - At the import end, the daily average clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to 16.43 tons, an increase of 5.6 tons compared with the previous week, returning to a relatively high level [3]. - The steel mill profit continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped to about 45%. Historically, the current profitability rate will not lead to large - scale production cuts by steel mills. The daily average pig iron output last week dropped to 236.36 tons, a decrease of 3.55 tons compared with the previous week, mainly due to environmental protection pressure in some areas of Hebei [3]. Later Concerns - With the approaching end of the peak demand season, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]. - Later, attention should be paid to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines [3].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term coal and coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations, remaining at a relatively high level overall with temporarily low inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of demand changes on market sentiment, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices fluctuated violently. In the spot market, it was generally stable with a slight upward trend. The second round of coke price hikes was implemented, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton in two rounds, and some regional coke enterprises planned a third round of hikes [3] Supply Side - Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lüliang and Linfen regions shut down due to safety reasons, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai region shut down for goaf treatment, leading to a decline in coal production. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3] - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal were 41.747 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6716 billion tons, a decline of 3.8%. In August and September, the monthly import volume of Mongolian coking coal was around 6 billion tons, narrowing the year - on - year decline. In October, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 12.8 million tons, a decrease of 4 million tons from September. It is expected that Mongolian coking coal imports in October will decline, and the annual import volume may be the same as last year [3] Demand Side - Demand is in the transition stage from peak season to off - season. Steel mills' profits have further shrunk, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output has slightly decreased to 23.99 million tons. As the peak demand season nears its end, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report Short - term coal and coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level overall. Inventory pressure is temporarily not significant, but attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market. Prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, the coal and coke futures prices fluctuated strongly and approached the previous high, with relatively intense overall fluctuations. The spot market was generally stable with a slight upward trend, and the second round of coke price hikes was implemented, with a cumulative increase of 100 - 130 yuan/ton in two rounds [2][3]. Supply Side - Last week, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen regions were shut down due to safety reasons, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai and other areas were shut down for goaf treatment, resulting in a decline in coal production. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons compared to the previous week and 1.7 tons year - on - year [3]. - From January to September, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal were 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6716 million tons, a decline of 3.8%. However, the imports in August and September were both at a high level of around 6 million tons, narrowing the year - on - year decline. The high - frequency data shows that the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port for Mongolian coal in October was 128,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to September. It is expected that Mongolian coking coal imports will decline in October, and the annual imports may be flat year - on - year [3]. Demand Side - The profit of steel mills has further shrunk, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average pig iron output has slightly decreased to 2.399 million tons. As the demand approaches the end of the year, the pressure on finished products is increasing, and the pig iron output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material side [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Short - term coal - coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level overall, with temporary low inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Market Performance - Last week, coal - coke futures prices fluctuated strongly with an upward trend and large volatility. The spot market was generally stable, and the scope of the second round of coking price increases expanded but had not been finalized [3]. Supply Side - Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia stopped production due to safety and governance issues last week, leading to a decline in coal production. The daily average clean coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3]. Demand Side - Steel mills' profits further shrank, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 239.9 million tons. As demand nears the end of the year, the pressure on finished products increases, and hot metal output tends to decline [3]. Import Data - China's coking coal imports have been increasing monthly. In September, imports were 10.9237 million tons, a 7.49% month - on - month increase and a 5.41% year - on - year increase. From January to September, cumulative imports were 83.5312 million tons, a 6.45% year - on - year decrease with a narrowing decline. In September, Mongolian coal imports were 6.0005 million tons, a 0.24% month - on - month decrease but a 45.48% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 41.747 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease with a significantly narrowing decline [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Short - term coal - coke supply - demand has marginal fluctuations and remains at a relatively high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of imported coal variables on the market. Market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factor changes, and prices should be treated with cautious optimism [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - Yesterday, coal - coke futures prices continued the rebound trend with intense fluctuations. The spot market was generally stable, and the second round of coking price increase was still in the negotiation process. Supply - side news pushed up coal prices [3]. - Due to the political turmoil in Mongolia, the customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port was affected, and the recent clearance volume decreased, supporting the coal price [3]. - In the domestic market, some coal mines in Shanxi's Lvliang and Linfen stopped production due to safety reasons this week, and open - pit coal mines in Inner Mongolia's Wuhai stopped production for goaf treatment. The coal output declined. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coking coal mines this week was 76.1 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 million tons from the previous week and 1.7 million tons year - on - year [3]. Demand - side - The profit of steel mills further shrank, with the profitability rate dropping to 47.6%. The daily average hot metal output slightly decreased to 2.399 billion tons. As the demand nears the end of the year, the pressure on finished products increases, and the hot metal output tends to decline. Attention should be paid to the transmission of pressure to the raw material end [3]. Import Data - China's coking coal imports have been increasing month - by - month. In September, the import volume was 10.9237 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.49% and a year - on - year increase of 5.41%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 83.5312 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.45% with the decline rate continuously narrowing [3]. - In September, the import of Mongolian coal was 6.0005 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 45.48%. From January to September, the import of Mongolian coal was 41.747 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8% with the decline rate significantly narrowing [3].