煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年10月12日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：宏观预期反复，或延续弱势震荡 ➢ 经历了节前补库操作的兑现，节后需求表现相对偏弱，交投氛围相对偏冷清。 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 产地小部分煤矿因假期出现短暂停产，国内供应小幅环比下降；蒙煤进口通车量尚未恢复至假期前的高位水平。 ◆ 2、需求： ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 中美贸易博弈或再度升级，全球海内外市场风险偏好高位回落，海外风险资产已在周五晚上出现估值上的大幅下挫，黑色估值同 样面临较大回调压力。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 煤焦基本面呈供需双弱态势，供需边际矛盾相对较小，叠加反内卷相关预期阶段性的充分计价，目前盘面估值或再度由宏观层 面因素所主导，中美贸易相关问题上的博弈激烈程度近日有所增加，风偏的回落或将对黑色及煤焦估值产生较大冲击。 煤焦基本面数据变化 | 基本面变化 | 煤 | 焦炭 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal and coke supply and demand are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises support the confidence of the raw material market to hold prices. The short - term futures market will continue to fluctuate widely [4] Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Conditions - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices continued to fluctuate. In the spot market, coal prices in many places continued to rebound slightly, and coke enterprises in many places initiated the first round of price increases due to increased costs. [3] - Since June, coal prices have risen significantly, while coke price increases have lagged behind, with a strong expectation of a compensatory increase. The entire coke industry is in a serious loss state, and the cost side strongly supports coke prices. Considering that steel mills still have profits, steel production is expected to remain at a high level, and coke demand will continue to be strong. Starting from September 26, the ex - factory price of coke will be comprehensively increased by 50 - 85 yuan/ton, and the entire coke industry is recommended to reduce production by more than 30% [3] Fundamental Data - Recently, affected by environmental protection policies in Tangshan, enterprises are required to prepare for hard emission reduction measures before the end of September. However, this round of production restrictions is mostly voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average. This week, the daily average pig iron output increased by 1.34 million tons to 242.36 million tons [4] - In the coal mine sector, the production of previously resumed coal mines in Linfen, Shanxi and other places has returned to normal, and the output has continued to rise. Coupled with the production increase of a large mining group in Qinyuan, Changzhi, the output has increased significantly. This week, the daily average output of clean coal was 77.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.6 million tons. It is expected that the output of coal mines in the main production areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much next week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [4]

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：刚需维持高位 盘面震荡运行 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 24 日 逻辑：昨日煤焦期货价格整体震荡运行。现货方面，山西区域煤价连 续小幅反弹；内蒙个别地区焦企发函表示近期成本持续上升，焦企运营压 力较大，计划本周提涨焦价，主流地区焦企暂未调价。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 市场方面，近期唐山市受环保政策影响，要求企业在 9 月底前做好硬 减排措施准备，但本次限产多以自愿为主，实际落实减产情况一般。上周 日均铁水产量小幅增长 0.47 万吨至 241.02 万吨。煤矿端，上周山西煤矿 延续复产节奏，产量继续回升，内蒙查超产文件引发市场对于煤矿减产担 忧，但实际影响的焦煤减量有限。短期来看，主产地煤矿仍有小幅增产空 间，在补库需求带动下，市场节前或将维持偏强运行。 原材料：程 鹏 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z00182 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand sides of coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the recent environmental protection and production restriction policies in Tangshan, the upward movement of the futures market is somewhat weak, and it will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the prices of coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the dot - plot indicates two more cuts this year. In the spot market, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia plan to raise coke prices next week due to rising costs [3] - Recently, due to the severe air quality situation in Tangshan, coking enterprises are required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to September 30th. The production restriction is mostly voluntary, and the specific plan is not clear [3] Steel Mill Data - This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week. The daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.47 million tons to 2.4102 million tons, and there is no overall production reduction in steel mills [3] Coal Mine Conditions - This week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and the output continued to rise. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production reduction, there is still a small increase in production in major coal - producing areas in the short term, and the market will remain strong before the festival [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated yesterday. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot indicates two more cuts this year. Due to the poor air quality in Tangshan, coking enterprises are required to extend the coking time by 30% from September 15th to 30th, but the specific production - limit plan is not clear. The supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the recent environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Market Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year due to concerns about the US labor market. Tangshan requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures from September 15th to 30th, and coking enterprises should extend the coking time by 30%. The production - limit is mostly voluntary, and the specific plan is unclear. [2] 2. Supply Side - This week, coal mines in Shanxi continued to resume production, and the output continued to rise. Although the document on over - production inspection in Inner Mongolia has raised concerns about coal mine production cuts, there is still a small increase in production in the short term. [3] 3. Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills is fast, and the daily average hot metal output last week quickly rebounded to over 2.4 million tons. The current profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points compared with last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. The finished products are in the process of continuous inventory accumulation, and the profit of steel mills has narrowed, which may limit the growth space of hot metal and test the raw material demand in the later stage. [3] 4. Market Outlook - The resumption of production on both the supply and demand sides of coking coal and coke is fast, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. However, affected by the environmental production - limit policy in Tangshan, the upward movement of the market is weak, and it will run in a short - term shock. [3] 5. Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up of steel mills and the resumption of production in coal mines. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are recovering rapidly, especially the rapid rebound of hot metal, which supports the rigid demand for raw materials. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday replenishment actions of downstream enterprises [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated overall and closed slightly lower on a weekly basis. On the spot side, the transaction of high - priced resources at some coal mines was weak, and the prices remained stable with a slight decline. Last Friday, steel mills started the second round of price cuts for coke, planning to implement it this week [3] Supply Side - The coking coal market remained weak, with transaction prices mainly falling. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers remained weak. However, after some coal mines cut prices, sales improved. The market still expected pre - National Day replenishment. Last week, coal production gradually recovered, with the daily average clean coal output of 523 coal mines reaching 728,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 35,000 tons. Affected by production cuts and improved sales after price cuts at some coal mines, mine - end inventories decreased [3] Demand Side - The resumption of production in steel mills was relatively fast. Last week, the daily average hot metal output unexpectedly rebounded to 2.4055 million tons, an increase of 117,100 tons from the previous week, returning to the level before the production limit. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is 60.17%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points from last week and an increase of 54.11 percentage points compared with last year. Finished products are in a continuous inventory accumulation process, and the profits of steel mills have narrowed, which may limit the rebound space of hot metal. In the later stage, the demand for raw materials will face a test [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply and demand sides of coal and coke have implemented production cuts, but most of the production cut cycles are short. Attention should be paid to the resumption process. The market sentiment is generally cooling down but still fluctuating, and prices are under pressure and oscillating [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices oscillated, and there was a rapid rise near the close of the night session. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak sales, and prices were stable with a slight decline. The first round of coke price reduction has been implemented [3]. Supply Side - Last week, due to the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi stopped production for maintenance, leading to a significant decline in coal production. This week, production is gradually recovering. The daily average coking coal output of 523 coal mines this week is 72.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5 million tons. Mine - end inventory has decreased [3]. Demand Side - Last week, the steel mill production cut expectation was realized. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills' blast furnaces was 228.84 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.29 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.23 million tons. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, and short - term hot metal output tends to rise. However, due to factors such as continuous inventory accumulation of finished products and narrowing steel mill profits, raw material demand will face challenges later [4].

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The production cut expectations at both the supply and demand ends of coking coal and coke have been realized, and production will gradually resume in the short term, but the resumption process remains to be observed; the market sentiment is generally cooling down, and prices are under pressure [3] Group 3 Market condition summary - Yesterday, the overall prices of coking coal and coke futures first declined and then rose, with a slight increase during the night session. As the 09 contract entered the delivery month, the futures prices moved from premium to flat or even discount due to weak willingness to buy for delivery, dragging down the prices of other contracts. On the spot side, the high - priced resources of some coal mines had weak trading, with prices stable or slightly lower. Hebei steel mills started to lower coke prices, with wet - quenched coke down 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke down 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on September 8, 2025 [2] Supply situation - Since this week, affected by the military parade, many coal mines in Shanxi have carried out centralized maintenance, mostly for 2 - 3 days. The regional and large - scale shutdown of coal mines, combined with the cancellation of night shifts in some areas, led to a significant decline in production. However, as most coal mines had short shutdown times and many resumed production on September 4, the coking coal production in the main producing areas is expected to recover rapidly next week [2] Demand situation - This week, the steel mill production cut expectations were realized. The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mill blast furnaces was 228.84 tons, a decrease of 11.29 tons compared to the previous week and an increase of 6.23 tons year - on - year. The production cut was more obvious in the Tangshan market. Most steel mills resumed production on September 4, with a few delaying the resumption. In the short term, hot metal production tends to recover, but according to past experience, it is usually difficult for production to return to pre - cut levels after a decline in the second half of the year, especially in the fourth quarter, and raw material demand will face challenges later [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term market sentiment has warmed up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke have declined slightly at high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high, so the price rebound lacks momentum [1] Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the overall price of coking coal and coke has shown a bottom - rebound trend, mainly driven by factors such as large previous price drops, short - covering, valuation repair, and improved foreign trade situation. But the fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price rebound is still under pressure [1] Spot Market - On the spot side, the coke price at the origin has been stable after the third round of price cuts since mid - May, with a cumulative decline of 170 - 185 yuan/ton in these three rounds, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts. Coking coal spot has also maintained a weak and stable operation without a rebound [1] Supply - With the recent rebound in coal prices, there have been continuous news about supply contraction. Domestic coal mine production has continued a slight downward trend, but there has been no large - scale production suspension or reduction, so it cannot change the upstream inventory accumulation situation. This week, the clean coal inventory at the coal mine end was 4.86 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 53,000 tons, and the inventory level is still at an absolute high [1] Demand - The demand for coking coal and coke has continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate is relatively slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 605,000 tons. The overall profitability rate of steel mills has slightly narrowed, leading to a decline in the start - up rate, which generally offsets the recent production cuts of coal mines [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market sentiment is warming up, which provides some support for coal prices. However, fundamentally, both the supply and demand of coking coal and coke are slightly declining from high levels, and the inventory pressure remains high. Rebounds should be treated with caution [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - Yesterday, the rebound of coking coal and coke futures prices was weak, and they weakened again at night. On the spot side, the third round of coke price cuts by steel mills last week was officially implemented, with this round's decline increasing to 70 - 75 yuan/ton. Since mid - May, the three - round cumulative decline has been 170 - 185 yuan/ton. Coking coal prices also maintained a weak and stable operation [3] Import Data - In May, China imported 36.04 million tons of coal, a month - on - month decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 188.722 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In May, the total customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 2.938 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [3] Domestic Coal Production - Domestic coal mine production continued a slight downward trend, but there was no large - scale shutdown or production reduction. The daily output of raw coal from 523 coking coal sample mines was 1.899 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 78,000 tons. However, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end has not been relieved. The raw coal inventory at the coal mine end increased to 6.708 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 297,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.357 million tons; the clean coal inventory was 4.807 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 77,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.04 million tons [3] Demand Situation - The demand for coking coal and coke continued a slight downward trend, but the decline rate was slow. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mills dropped to 2.418 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 605,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The overall profitability of steel mills narrowed slightly, leading to a decline in production, which generally offset the recent production cuts of coal mines. Fundamentally, the driving force for coal price rebound was still insufficient [3]