Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The black series is still in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, sensitive to news changes. The actual terminal demand for steel is weak, and the short - term macro level is in a policy vacuum period. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, the "dual - carbon" policy, and its impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is expected to enter the off - season, and after the resumption of iron - making, the supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of steel mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, the commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. - For polysilicon, the price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. - For glass, the price is boosted by production line cold - repair and fuel - cost increase, but the high inventory restricts the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - For soda ash, the supply pressure persists, the demand is weak, and the overall pattern remains weak [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Quotes - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3158 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (- 0.22%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 55933 tons, a net increase of 1512 tons. The main contract positions were 1.6879 million lots, a net decrease of 38760 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3303 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (- 0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 173103 tons, a net increase of 60866 tons. The main contract positions were 1.4403 million lots, a net increase of 12752 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3280 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Strategy Views - The output of hot - rolled coils increased slightly, demand continued to weaken, and inventory continued to decline slightly. The output of rebar increased against the season, demand declined, and inventory increased slightly. The black series is in a bottom - range oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to market rumors and information screening [2]. Iron Ore Market Quotes - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 819.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.36% (- 3.00), and the positions changed by - 1527 lots to 653300 lots. The weighted positions were 989800 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 826 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 58.83 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.70% [4]. Strategy Views - Supply: The overseas iron - ore shipment volume continued to decline. The shipment from Brazil decreased significantly, and the shipments of Rio Tinto and BHP decreased. The shipment from non - mainstream countries increased, and the near - end arrival volume continued to increase [5]. - Demand: The daily average pig - iron output was 229.5 tons, continuing to rise. The blast - furnace utilization rate in some areas recovered, and the steel - mill profitability decreased slightly [5]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to accumulate, and steel - mill imported - ore inventory increased but remained at a low level [5]. - Outlook: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve. The price is expected to oscillate at a relatively high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel - mill restocking and iron - making production [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.24% at 5916 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a basis of 24 yuan/ton [8]. - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.28% at 5682 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a basis of 168 yuan/ton [8]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The ferrosilicon showed relative strength due to rumors but then gave up the gains [9]. - Fundamental analysis: The supply - demand structure of manganese silicon is loose, with high inventory and weak downstream demand, but these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10]. - Future drivers: The market direction of the black sector and the overall market sentiment, as well as the cost - push problem of manganese ore for manganese silicon and the supply - contraction issue for ferrosilicon [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Quotes - On January 13, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 3.80% at 1191.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1525.3 yuan/ton, with a basis of 143 yuan/ton [12]. - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.41% at 1745.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1490 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton [12]. Strategy Views - Previous drivers: The bullish commodity - market atmosphere and the news of coking - coal production - capacity reduction [15]. - Outlook: The commodity bullish sentiment may continue, but there is a risk of short - term high volatility. The supply - demand structure is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to oscillate in the current range in the short term [16]. Industrial Silicon Market Quotes - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8635 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.37% (- 120). The weighted positions changed by + 3755 lots to 378736 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 565 yuan/ton [18]. Strategy Views - Supply: The production in December was stable, the furnace - opening number in the southwest decreased to a low level, and the supply improvement was limited [19]. - Demand: The polysilicon production in January continued to decline, and the demand for industrial silicon was weak. The demand from the organic - silicon industry was relatively stable [19]. - Outlook: It is expected to face inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to new supply disturbances in the northwest [19]. Polysilicon Market Quotes - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 49005 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.98% (- 990). The weighted positions changed by - 2302 lots to 88766 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 54.25 yuan/kg, and the basis was 5745 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Views - Market sentiment: The anti - monopoly meeting minutes and market adjustment led to price weakness [21]. - Fundamental analysis: The spot price increased, but downstream hesitation persisted. The supply pressure may ease if the production - cut plan of a leading enterprise is implemented [22]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and official policies [22]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Quotes: The main contract of glass closed at 1096 yuan/ton, down 4.11% (- 47). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises decreased by 134.80 million cases (- 2.37%) [24]. - Strategy Views: The glass daily melting volume decreased, and the fuel - cost increase boosted the price. However, the terminal demand was weak, and the high inventory restricted the upward space. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Soda Ash - Market Quotes: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1212 yuan/ton, down 2.18% (- 27). The inventory of sample enterprises increased by 16.44 million tons [25]. - Strategy Views: The supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall pattern remained weak [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to continue operating within the bottom range, and the winter storage is unlikely to form a concentrated replenishment market. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policies and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply of iron ore has decreased in the short term, the demand has slightly recovered, and the port inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to overseas emergencies [5] - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [9][10] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are weak, and it mainly relies on silicon enterprises' production cuts to support prices. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The demand is weak, the supply is still loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure exists. Attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprises' quota sales and the terminal demand feedback [16] - The price of glass may rise slightly, but the market lacks substantial demand and policy support. The price upward space is estimated to be between 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - The price of soda ash is expected to decline. The supply is in excess, and it is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3104 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of rebar show a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and continuous inventory reduction. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased significantly, apparent demand has strengthened slightly, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - The overall market is in a narrow - range shock, the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is under pressure. The steel price is expected to continue operating in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+7.50). The position increased by 25428 hands to 61.88 million hands. The weighted position was 94.83 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.59 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.96% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the shipping from non - mainstream countries has also decreased. The near - end arrival volume has increased [5] - Demand: The daily average molten iron output has slightly increased, some blast furnaces have resumed production, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved [5] - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the past five years [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.78% at 5866 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.85% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - Macro: After a series of important macro - events, the market has shown a positive trend, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the "leading" products on the market sentiment [9] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10] - Key factors: The market direction of the black sector and cost - push factors of manganese ore and supply - contraction factors of ferrosilicon are the main contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-130). The weighted contract position decreased by 3538 hands to 342532 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis of 470 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively [12] - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 58645 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+725). The weighted contract position decreased by 6544 hands to 129961 hands. The spot prices of N - type silicon increased, with a basis of - 5395 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable, the demand in January is weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - Polysilicon: The downstream production in January has continued to decline, the supply is still loose, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of quota sales and terminal demand feedback [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1081 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.55% (-6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 413 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 848 short positions [18] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1177 yuan/ton on Monday, down 2.65% (-32). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 1719 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 1109 short positions [20] Strategy Views - Glass: In December, the supply decreased, the demand declined in winter, and the market lacked substantial support. The price may rise slightly, with the upward space around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - Soda Ash: In December, the domestic market was narrowly sorted, the supply was in excess, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22]