Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 31, the main PVC contract dropped 5.39% to close at 5,353 yuan/ton. The weak performance was due to two reasons: the profit recovery boosted the开工 willingness of calcium carbide - based PVC enterprises and the load of ethylene - based enterprises also increased, resulting in the supply reduction of PVC falling short of expectations; the US released a signal of geopolitical easing, cooling the commodity market sentiment and causing PVC to give back the geopolitical premium [1]. - In the short - term, PVC production stopped falling and stabilized, with the load of domestic ethylene - based enterprises increasing and the marginal calcium carbide - based enterprises starting up more. In the medium - term, the stability of raw material supply for ethylene - based enterprises should be noted. Overseas, chlor - alkali plants in Japan, South Korea, Western Europe, and South Asia have cut production due to raw material supply disruptions [2]. - PVC downstream start - up improved month - on - month, but the enthusiasm for chasing price increases was poor. Domestic export orders remained normal as foreign buyers made rigid purchases. [2] - The price of calcium carbide rebounded moderately, and the dynamic comprehensive cost of calcium carbide - based PVC changed relatively little. The price of ethylene was strong, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased. The supply and demand of calcium carbide both increased, and the rising rate of calcium carbide may slow down. Due to the supply disruption of crude oil and naphtha and the reduction of overseas cracking load, ethylene remained strong [2]. - Looking forward, the PVC market is under pressure due to the uncertain geopolitical expectations and the domestic PVC production cut falling short of expectations. If the geopolitical situation is not substantially alleviated, there is still a risk of production cuts for PVC at home and abroad, and domestic exports will still be favorable, giving the market the momentum to rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - Short - term: PVC production stopped falling and stabilized. The load of domestic ethylene - based enterprises increased, and the marginal calcium carbide - based enterprises started up more [2]. - Medium - term: Pay attention to the stability of raw material supply for ethylene - based enterprises. If raw material procurement is difficult, ethylene - based enterprises may still cut production [2]. - Overseas: Chlor - alkali plants in Japan, South Korea, Western Europe, and South Asia have cut production due to raw material supply disruptions [2]. Demand - PVC downstream start - up improved month - on - month, but the enthusiasm for chasing price increases was poor. Overseas and domestic prices soared, foreign buyers made rigid purchases, and domestic export orders remained normal [2]. Valuation - Calcium carbide price rebounded moderately, and the dynamic comprehensive cost of calcium carbide - based PVC changed relatively little. Ethylene price was strong, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased. The supply and demand of calcium carbide both increased, and the rising rate of calcium carbide may slow down. Due to the supply disruption of crude oil and naphtha and the reduction of overseas cracking load, ethylene remained strong [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment of natural rubber is weakening, and attention should be paid to the strength of support levels. The market is expected to remain volatile [1][8][9]. - The external market of oils and fats is stagnant in rising, and the trend is volatile. Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. It is recommended to focus on the phased low - buying strategy [1][5]. - The spot of protein meal continues to be weak, and the double - meal futures market fluctuates. Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile, with short - term adjustment pressure [5]. - Weather affects the supply of corn, and the futures and spot prices continue to be strong. In the short term, the price is expected to be volatile and strong; in the medium term, the overall trend is bullish [5][6][7]. - The average daily pig slaughter increases in March, and the pig price is running weakly. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, and the pig cycle may bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [7]. - The synthetic rubber sector atmosphere remains strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be strong [10]. - Cotton continues to consolidate. In the long - run, the cotton price is expected to be volatile and strong [10]. - The sugar price may fluctuate in the short - term and is expected to be volatile and weak in the medium - to - long term [11]. - Overseas pulp mill shutdowns stimulate the pulp futures market to rise, and it is expected to be volatile [12][13]. - Paper mills support the price of double - offset paper, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a trend of rising first and then falling from March to May [13][15]. - The cost of logs increases, and the market is expected to be volatile within a certain range [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Logic**: The US soybean and soybean oil futures are volatile and stagnant. The US soybean oil inventory in January was 2.43 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year increase of 33.9%. The fundamentals of palm oil are mixed, and the production may recover in March. The price of rapeseed oil is expected to follow the overall trend of oils and fats [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Logic**: Internationally, geopolitical factors and bio - fuel policies affect the price of US soybeans. Domestically, the trading volume of double - meal futures decreases, but the cost supports the price. The spot market is weak [5]. - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile [5]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The supply is limited due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the downstream has replenishment demand. However, imported grains and wheat may affect the price [6][7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong in the short - term, and bullish in the medium - term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **Logic**: The supply is excessive in the short - to - medium term, the demand is weak after the festival, and the inventory weight increases [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and weak in the short - term, and the price may rise in the second half of 2026 [7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The price decline is due to the overall commodity sentiment and tire export news. However, the support from synthetic rubber and the upcoming low - production season limit the decline [1][8][9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [1][8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: Affected by geopolitical events and the overall market atmosphere, the BR futures market remains high. The supply of butadiene is expected to be tight in the first half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong in the short - term [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Logic**: In the short - term, there is a lack of new driving forces. In the long - run, the domestic supply - demand is in tight balance, and the international supply is expected to tighten [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season. Although the conflict in the Middle East supports the price, the long - term trend is still weak [11]. - **Outlook**: Volatile and weak [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Logic**: Overseas mill shutdowns stimulate the price, but the current demand is weak. The future demand may improve seasonally, and the supply and import cost factors are mixed [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [12][13]. 3.1.10 Double - Offset Paper - **Logic**: Paper mills support the price, and the market trading volume increases. The supply and demand are expected to increase from March to April, and the price may rise first and then fall from March to May [13][15]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [13][15]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts increase the cost, and the domestic inventory is low. The short - term change is limited, and the price may be under pressure after the peak season [16]. - **Outlook**: Volatile [16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data analysis content is provided in the given text, only variety names are listed, so no detailed summary can be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on March 4, 2026 shows that the special index includes the commodity index (2484.31, + 0.06%), the commodity 20 index (2838.28, - 0.33%), and the industrial products index (2398.32, + 1.42%). The agricultural product index is 949.03, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a 5 - day increase of 0.49%, a 1 - month increase of 0.55%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.71% [177][178]. - **PPI Commodity Index**: The PPI commodity index is 1424.97, with a 0.05% increase [180].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the geopolitical risks in Iran, there are still risks in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, with China's PTA production in January expected to reach a new high and no production cut plan for the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply remains tight, with limited global effective capacity release. The PX - mixed xylene toluene spread remains around $150, and although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative feedback on PTA. Bottle chip profits are expanding, while short - fiber profits are declining [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5140 to 5180, a change of 40; MEG inner - market price increased from 3623 to 3652, a change of 29; PTA closing price increased from 5230 to 5260, a change of 30; MEG closing price increased from 3733 to 3764, a change of 31; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6585 to 6590, a change of 5; short - fiber basis decreased from 52 to 16, a change of - 36; 3 - 4 spread increased from - 74 to - 66, a change of 8; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5300; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1285 to 1290, a change of 5; East China water bottle chip price increased from 6270 to 6275, a change of 5; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6270 to 6275, a change of 5; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6370 to 6375, a change of 5; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 840 to 845, a change of 5; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 662 to 623, a change of - 39; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10700; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4115 to 4110, a change of - 5; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16800; cotton 328 price increased from 15710 to 15765, a change of 55; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1496 to 1472, a change of - 24; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained at 7290; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 482 to 438, a change of - 44; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main short - fiber futures rose 42 to 6654. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were mainly stagnant, the prices of traders fluctuated within a range, downstream demand was weak, and on - site transactions were sluggish. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6470 - 6700 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6590 - 6820 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6550 - 6750 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6280 - 6360 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The futures prices of PTA and bottle chips fluctuated warmly. Most supply - side offers were raised, the market's spot supply was tight, downstream terminal demand was relatively weak, and the market negotiation focus increased [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07%; the polyester staple fiber sales ratio decreased from 38.00% to 31.00%, a change of - 7.00%; the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32%; the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PX maintains fundamental resilience during high - level corrections. Despite a decline in the PX - naphtha spread to $335 per ton, it remains at a healthy level. The supply of PX is still tight, and the downstream PTA industry is continuously strong. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA [3]. - The reduction in ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East after a long - term slump has boosted market confidence. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 465.4 yuan/barrel on February 6th to 464.2 yuan/barrel on February 9th, a change of - 1.20 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1783.9 yuan to 1818.6 yuan, a change of 34.72 yuan; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.5274 to 1.5391, a change of 0.0117; PTA主力期价 increased from 5166 yuan/ton to 5192 yuan/ton, a change of 26 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased from 5085 yuan/ton to 5115 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 412.2 yuan/ton to 406.2 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 increased from 448.2 yuan/ton to 468.2 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from (72) to (75), a change of - 3; PTA仓单数量 increased from 103,568 to 104,168, a change of 600 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3743 yuan/ton to 3739 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (195.44) yuan/ton to (194.13) yuan/ton, a change of 1.3 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased from 3630 yuan/ton to 3635 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from - 102 to - 105, a change of - 3 [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX increased from 898 to 900, a change of 2; PX - naphtha spread increased from 294 to 297, a change of 4 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F remained at 7005; POY现金流 decreased from 191 to 164, a change of - 27; FDY150D/96F remained at 7240; FDY现金流 decreased from (74) to (101), a change of - 27; DTY150D/48F remained at 8140; DTY现金流 decreased from 126 to 99, a change of - 27; 长丝产销 remained at 12%; 1.4D直纺涤短 increased from 6535 to 6575, a change of 40; 涤短现金流 increased from 71 to 84, a change of 13; 短纤产销 decreased from 56% to 41%, a change of - 15%; 半光切片 increased from 5860 to 5880, a change of 20; 切片现金流 decreased from (54) to (61), a change of - 7; 切片产销 decreased from 64% to 22%, a change of - 42 [3]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX开工率 remained at 85.92%; PTA开工率 remained at 76.73%; MEG开工率 remained at 61.67%; 聚酯负荷 decreased from 78.14% to 77.49%, a change of - 0.65% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA device is currently reducing its load and is expected to be shut down for maintenance on the 15th. A South China 1.25 - million - ton PTA device is expected to be shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the geopolitical risks in Iran, there are still risks in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no plans for Spring Festival production cuts. There are no new PTA production capacities throughout the year, and existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply side remains tight. The TDP plant in South Korea has increased its load, and a PX plant in the Middle East is scheduled to shut down before February, resulting in limited global effective capacity release. The PX - mixed xylene toluene spread remains at around $150. In terms of profit structure, although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative impact on PTA. Bottle chip profits are expanding, while short - fiber profits are declining [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 5085 to 5115, a change of 30 [2] - MEG inner - market price increased from 3630 to 3635, a change of 5 [2] - PTA closing price increased from 5166 to 5192, a change of 26 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3743 to 3739, a change of - 4 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6535 to 6575, a change of 40 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 39 to 41, a change of 2 [2] - 3 - 4 spread remained unchanged at - 80 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5300 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1235 to 1275, a change of 40 [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 6247 to 6233, a change of - 14 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6247 to 6233, a change of - 14 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6347 to 6333, a change of - 14 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 835 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10700 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4165 to 4125, a change of - 40 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16800 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15615 to 15630, a change of 15 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1565 to 1533, a change of - 32 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7290 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 526 to 499, a change of - 27 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures rose 38 to 6606. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were on the strong side, the prices of traders increased slightly, downstream purchases were sporadic, and on - site transactions were limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6420 - 6700 (cash on delivery, tax - included, self - pick - up), 6540 - 6820 in the North China market (cash on delivery, tax - included, delivered), and 6500 - 6750 in the Fujian market (cash on delivery, tax - included, delivered) [2] - Bottle chip: The commodity atmosphere was warm. Some polyester bottle chip factories raised their quotes by 10 - 50, and some remained stable. The market center rose slightly. As the Spring Festival approached, logistics decreased, and long - distance logistics costs increased. Small and medium - sized terminal enterprises gradually withdrew from the market, and the festival atmosphere in the market became stronger. It was reported that the transactions of 2 - 3 month supplies were at 6110 - 6300. In terms of basis, the futures contract 2604 had a premium of 70 - 100, and there was sporadic replenishment for rigid demand [2] Operating Rate and Sales - to - Production Ratio - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 88.84% to 86.77%, a change of 2.07% [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales - to - production ratio decreased from 52.00% to 38.00%, a change of - 14.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 54.81% to 55.44%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, the report maintains the view that the long - position trend of commodities will continue. However, in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of the non - ferrous and commodity long - positions, which may still suppress the overall market atmosphere [20]. - The weekly static supply - demand structure of coking coal has become looser due to the gradual recovery of supply after the New Year's Day, the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the slow resumption of hot metal production. Coke also shows a relatively loose situation. Although downstream players are still replenishing inventory, the inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is low. Therefore, the inventory replenishment is unlikely to drive up prices [20]. - Although the coking coal price has occasional abnormal increases driven by external disturbances and capital, the short - term upward impetus is not strong. On the one hand, the fundamental support is insufficient; on the other hand, the market sentiment does not support a strong upward trend. Also, considering the time node, there is a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival, unless there are sudden supply - side incidents. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [20][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - In January, the coking coal futures price showed a volatile rebound, with a monthly increase of 51.5 yuan/ton or +4.63%. Last week, it showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 14.5 yuan/ton or - 1.15%. The overseas coal - related disturbances, though not directly affecting the domestic short - term fundamentals, have a positive impact on market sentiment. Meanwhile, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals have amplified the volatility of coking coal futures [11][14]. - In January, the coke futures price showed a wide - range volatile trend, with a monthly increase of 31.5 yuan/ton or +1.86%. Last week, it also showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 20.5 yuan/ton or - 1.19%. The price movement mainly depends on the cost - side coking coal fluctuations [18]. - **Monthly Key Points Summary** - **Spot Price and Basis**: Different types of coking coal and coke have different price changes and basis situations. For example, Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal is at 1550.6 yuan/ton, with a certain price change compared to the previous period, and the basis shows a premium to the futures [19]. - **Variety Positions**: The current position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is also abnormally high and increasing, so the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases needs to be watched [19]. - **Domestic Output**: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased by 1.62 tons month - on - month due to the Spring Festival holiday. However, the cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the misalignment of the Lunar New Year) [19]. - **Overseas Imports**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed [19]. - **Demand**: The total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased by 0.53 tons month - on - month. The independent coking plant's coking profit is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate remained stable. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 41.08 tons month - on - month but increased by 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory increased by 89.03 tons month - on - month but decreased by 386.97 tons year - on - year [19]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally looser [20]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [20]. - **Summary and Outlook**: In the short term, the upward impetus for coking coal is weak. After the Spring Festival, there is a risk of price correction. However, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October in 2026 [20][22]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Coking Coal Spot Price**: As of February 5, 2026, different types of coking coal, such as low - sulfur, medium - sulfur, and Mongolian coking coal, have different price changes compared to the previous period and different basis situations with the futures [26][28][31]. - **Coke Spot Price**: As of February 5, 2026, the prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke have changed compared to the previous period, and their basis with the futures also shows different situations [37]. - **Coking Coal Basis and Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal is - 76 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is in contango [44][47]. - **Coke Basis and Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coke is - 66 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is also in contango [50][53]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - **Variety Positions**: As of February 5, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal is 647,700 lots, an increase of 30,800 lots month - on - month, and it is still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral position of coke is 39,000 lots, an increase of 400 lots month - on - month. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is abnormally high and increasing [62][63]. - **Variety Ratios**: This week, the ratio of JM/I increased by 0.07, and HC/JM decreased by 0.06, indicating that coking coal performed slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, JM/I is still at a low historical level, and the valuation of coking coal relative to iron ore is low. The ratio of J/I increased by 0.11, HC/J decreased by 0.04, and JM/J remained basically stable, indicating that coke was slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, J/I is also at a low historical level, and the valuation of coke relative to iron ore is low [69][72]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Output**: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines is 75.45 tons, a decrease of 1.62 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal - washing plants is 26.31 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output increased by about 240 tons or +27.3% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [77][79]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: As of January 31, 2026, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal increased by 328.19 tons or +5.78% year - on - year. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Australian coking coal decreased by 144.58 tons or - 14.03% year - on - year. China's imports of coking coal from Russia and Canada increased in 2025, while imports from the United States decreased significantly due to tariffs [82][85][88]. - **Coke Output**: As of February 5, 2026, the total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants is 10.38 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output decreased by about 71.19 tons or - 1.52% year - on - year. The coking profit of independent coking plants is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased month - on - month [94][97]. - **Downstream Steel Industry**: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises is 228.58 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate is 39.39%, remaining stable month - on - month. The estimated disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil are - 164 yuan/ton and - 107 yuan/ton respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 760.66 tons, a decrease of 41.08 tons month - on - month but an increase of 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory is 2439.65 tons, an increase of 89.03 tons month - on - month but a decrease of 386.97 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [100][106][110]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal is marginally looser. The estimated daily average demand for coke converted from hot metal is about 109.72 tons, still slightly lower than the daily average coke output, and the supply - demand structure of coke is also marginally looser [112]. 3.5 Inventory - **Inventory Overview**: As of February 5, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors such as mines, coking plants, steel mills, and ports. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [115][116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - building materials market is currently in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. In the short term, it will mainly show range - bound fluctuations, and the trend opportunities are not clear yet. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and possible marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. However, in the short term, factors such as the sharp adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the new Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of the US federal government may suppress the overall market sentiment [8][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Steel Products 3.1.1 Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3098 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-0.95%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 14,841 tons, a decrease of 2,442 tons compared to the previous day. The main contract's open interest was 1.7841 million lots, an increase of 49,987 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3,170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,261 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (-0.82%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 199,447 tons, an increase of 9,124 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.4988 million lots, a decrease of 30,859 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coils was 3,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.2 Strategy Views - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate in the bottom range. The rebar production remained high, the apparent demand decreased seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, and the inventory started to accumulate, but the overall increase was still controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, the production was moderately high, and the inventory continued to decline slightly. The black - building materials market is in a bottom - game stage with both long and short factors at play. In the short term, it will mainly show range - bound fluctuations [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 783.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.07% (-8.50). The open interest changed by -20,544 lots to 520,700 lots. The weighted open interest was 874,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.93 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 6.33% [4]. 3.2.2 Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded month - on - month. The shipments from Australia decreased slightly, while those from Brazil increased significantly. Among the mainstream mines, Vale had a more significant increase. The shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly. The near - term arrivals remained basically stable. In terms of demand, the daily average hot metal production according to the Steel Union's data was 227,980 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease. Some blast furnaces in certain regions were still undergoing annual inspections, and the复产 of blast furnaces was mainly due to the normal resumption after the end of maintenance. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years, exerting pressure on the absolute price. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills continued to rise, and the pre - holiday procurement and replenishment by steel mills continued. In the short term, the support for iron ore prices is relatively solid, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' replenishment and hot metal production rhythm [5]. 3.3 Ferrous Alloys 3.3.1 Market Information - On February 2nd, the main contract of manganese - silicon (SM605) closed down 0.65% at 5,834 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese - silicon in Tianjin was 5,780 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5,970 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 136 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.64% at 5,624 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. 3.3.2 Strategy Views - The supply - demand pattern of manganese - silicon remains unfavorable, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors are mostly reflected in the price and are not the main contradictions in the future market. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon remains basically balanced, with some improvement due to the maintenance and conversion of some factories. The future market of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon will be mainly affected by the overall sentiment of the black - building materials market and the cost - push from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment and the supply contraction (or contraction expectation) in the ferrosilicon segment due to losses or "dual - carbon" policies. Attention should be paid to possible restrictions on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon and the progress of "dual - carbon" policies [9]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke 3.4.1 Market Information - On February 2nd, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) initially rose by more than 3% but then fell, closing down 1.21% at 1,141.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1,584.8 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1,395 yuan/ton, with a premium of 253.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of coke (J2605) also showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, closing down 2.38% at 1,680.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price converted to the futures delivery price was 1,725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 45 yuan/ton over the futures [11]. 3.4.2 Strategy Views - The commodity market experienced significant fluctuations last week, mainly due to the appointment of the new Fed chairman, which led to expectations of a marginal tightening of the denominator. The previous strong lithium carbonate also declined significantly, suppressing the overall commodity sentiment. However, the black - building materials sector was supported by the relaxation of the "three red lines" in the real estate industry and the successful extension of Vanke's debt. In the short term, the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Although the downstream is still replenishing inventory, the coking plants' coking coal inventory is approaching the level of the same period last year, and the steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is low. The short - term replenishment is not expected to drive the price strongly. The firmness of Australian coal prices and the power shortage in the US may have a positive impact on sentiment. Considering the "scarcity" premium of coking coal resources, the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [13][14]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.5.1 Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract (SI2605) was 8,795 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.62% (-55). The weighted contract open interest changed by -16,591 lots to 336,548 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 405 yuan/ton for the main contract. The spot price of 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 55 yuan/ton for the main contract [16]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract (PS2605) was 47,050 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.19% (-90). The weighted contract open interest changed by -5,716 lots to 70,398 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM was 49 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 51.3 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of 4,250 yuan/ton for the main contract [18][19]. 3.5.2 Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The price fluctuated yesterday. In terms of supply, Sichuan's production enterprises maintained the furnace - shutdown state last week, and enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reduced production. The weekly output continued to decline. In terms of demand, a leading polysilicon enterprise shut down completely, and some other enterprises reduced production. The weekly output of silicone continued to decline slightly. The overall demand for industrial silicon was weak. In February, the production reduction plan of a large factory in Xinjiang will be implemented. If half of the furnaces are shut down, the supply - demand balance sheet of industrial silicon in February is expected to improve, and the sustainability depends on the shutdown duration. In the short term, there is an expectation of improved supply - demand, and the supply contraction provides strong support for the price. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the weakening downstream, the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of the large factory's production reduction and the production adjustment rhythm of downstream enterprises [17]. - Polysilicon: The spot price of silicon material is in a stalemate, and market information is chaotic. Downstream enterprises have low acceptance of high prices, some enterprises try to lower prices, and futures - spot traders sell at low prices, resulting in a decline in the actual transaction price. The silicon wafer segment also faces pressure, as the loosening of silicon material prices weakens the cost support, and some enterprises sell at low prices. The terminal component price is rising, and the battery segment's price is rising due to non - silicon costs and overseas demand. The supply of polysilicon is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. Policy expectations are expected to support the price, and the anti - monopoly red line is being strengthened. The open interest and liquidity of the polysilicon futures have fallen to relatively low levels since listing. Affected by the loosening of the spot price, the futures price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the follow - up feedback of terminal demand and possible new policy adjustments [20]. 3.6 Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1 Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1,056 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, unchanged. The price of large - size glass in North China was 1,020 yuan, unchanged; the price in Central China was 1,110 yuan, unchanged. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million boxes, a decrease of 651,800 boxes (-1.22%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 22,822 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 61,396 lots [22]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1,203 yuan/ton on Monday afternoon, down 0.08% (-1). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1,163 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5442 million tons, an increase of 23,000 tons (1.22%), including 716,100 tons of heavy soda ash, an increase of 19,400 tons, and 828,100 tons of light soda ash, an increase of 3,600 tons. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 9,504 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their short positions by 2,330 lots [24]. 3.6.2 Strategy Views - Glass: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream processing plants are gradually winding up, market demand is weakening, and the overall trading activity has declined. Purchases are mainly for immediate needs, and inventory replenishment is almost over. In terms of supply, a production line has been restarted and ignited recently, and there are no cold - repair plans, so the overall production capacity remains stable. The demand is limited due to the Spring Festival seasonality. The market lacks strong driving factors, and there is a general wait - and - see attitude. Manufacturers are not willing to adjust prices and mainly focus on stable - price sales and inventory reduction. The float glass market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1,025 - 1,125 yuan/ton [23]. - Soda ash: The supply in the industry remains loose. The equipment of enterprises such as Jiangsu Huachang has resumed operation after a short - term shutdown, and new production capacity is gradually being released, so the supply continues to increase. The demand is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly make purchases for immediate needs. Only a few enterprises replenish inventory moderately before the festival, and there is a strong wait - and - see attitude, with limited order growth. The current supply - demand structure of the soda ash market is relatively loose, and downstream procurement is cautious, so the price lacks upward momentum. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and steadily in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 1,160 - 1,250 yuan/ton [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. However, in the short term, factors such as the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise, the expectation of short - term marginal tightening brought by the appointment of the new Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of multiple US federal government departments may suppress the overall market atmosphere. - The weekly static supply - demand structure of coking coal has become marginally looser due to the gradual recovery of supply after the New Year's Day, the high - level customs clearance of Mongolian coal, and the slow resumption of hot metal production. Coke also shows a relatively loose situation. Although downstream enterprises are still replenishing inventory, the coking plant's coking coal inventory is approaching last year's level, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is significantly low. Therefore, the short - term inventory replenishment is unlikely to drive prices strongly, and the upward momentum of prices is relatively weak. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to show a volatile trend in the short term, and the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high - volatility risk are also noted [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - Last week, the coking coal futures price continued a wide - range volatile trend, with a weekly increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or + 0.04% (for the weighted index). The sharp fluctuations in the commodity market, especially the high - level diving of precious metals and the significant decline of lithium carbonate, suppressed the overall commodity sentiment. However, the relaxation of the "three red lines" in the real estate sector and the successful extension of Vanke's debt issue provided short - term emotional support for the black sector. Technically, the coking coal futures are still in a daily - level rebound cycle, with support around 1100 yuan/ton and resistance around 1260 yuan/ton [14]. - The coke futures price also continued a wide - range volatile trend, with a weekly decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 0.03% (for the weighted index). Technically, the coke price is approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021. If it breaks through upwards, the resistance around 1850 yuan/ton will be focused on, and the support around 1650 - 1700 yuan/ton will be monitored in the short term [17]. - **Weekly Key Points Summary** - **Spot Prices and Basis**: For coking coal, the prices of different coal types showed different trends, and most of them had a certain degree of premium over the futures. For coke, the prices of different regions also changed, with some having a premium and some having a discount to the futures [18]. - **Variety Positions**: The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the non - main contracts in March and April have significantly higher positions than the same period, which requires attention to the warehouse receipt pressure after price increases [18]. - **Domestic Production**: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.07 tons, with a slight increase of 0.06 tons. The cumulative output of clean coal in the sample mines increased by about 1.55 million tons or 4.47% year - on - year [18]. - **Overseas Imports**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port has rebounded to 209,200 tons per day, at an absolute high level in the same period. The estimated import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 189 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed [18]. - **Demand**: The total daily average output of coke from 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased slightly to 109,850 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 227,980 tons, and the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased, and the steel inventory increased slightly compared with the previous week but was lower than the same period last year [18]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal in the country is 1.5342 million tons, with a slight increase. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke production and hot metal decreased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke has become marginally looser this week [19]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory increased by 580,300 tons, with the inventory of sample mines decreasing, and the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increasing. The total coke inventory increased by 215,000 tons, with the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increasing [19]. - **Summary and Outlook**: In the short term, the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the short - term impact of market sentiment and the high - volatility risk [19]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Coking Coal Spot Prices**: As of January 30, 2026, the prices of different coking coal types showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing. The spot prices of different coal types were converted into warehouse receipt prices, and most of them had a premium over the futures [23][25][28][31]. - **Coke Spot Prices**: The price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang remained stable. The coke price at Rizhao Port had a premium over the futures, while the coke price in Lvliang had a discount [34]. - **Coking Coal Basis and Calendar Spread**: The basis of Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal had different changes. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 77 yuan/ton, and the coking coal generally maintained a Contango structure [41][44]. - **Coke Basis and Calendar Spread**: The basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke had different changes. The 5 - 9 spread of coke was - 65.5 yuan/ton, and the coke also maintained a Contango structure [47][50]. 3.3. Positions and Variety Ratios - **Variety Positions**: As of January 30, 2026, the total long - short position of coking coal was 590,500 lots, a decrease of 46,100 lots compared with the previous week. The long - short position of coke was 38,700 lots, a decrease of 1,100 lots. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the non - main contracts in March and April have significantly higher positions than the same period, which requires attention to the warehouse receipt pressure after price increases [59][62]. - **Variety Ratios**: This week, the ratio of JM/I increased by 0.01, and the ratio of HC/JM decreased by 0.01. Coking coal performed slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coils, but the difference was limited. The ratio of J/I increased by 0.01, and the ratio of HC/J decreased by 0.01. Coke was slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coils. Currently, both JM/I and J/I are at relatively low levels in history, indicating that the valuations of coking coal and coke are relatively low compared with iron ore [67][70]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Production**: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines was 77.07 tons, with a slight increase of 0.06 tons. The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal washing plants was 26,770 tons, a decrease of 860 tons. The cumulative output of clean coal in the sample mines and coal washing plants increased year - on - year [75][77]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port has rebounded to 209,200 tons per day, at an absolute high level in the same period. The estimated import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 189 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed. In 2025, the cumulative imports of coking coal from different countries showed different trends, with an increase in imports from Mongolia, Russia, and Canada, and a decrease in imports from Australia and the United States [80][83][86][89]. - **Coke Production**: The total daily average output of coke from 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants decreased slightly to 109,850 tons. The daily average output of coke from 247 steel enterprises increased slightly, while the daily average output of coke from independent coking plants decreased [92][95]. - **Downstream Steel Industry**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 227,980 tons, a decrease of 120 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, a decrease of 1.3%. The estimated disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased slightly. The apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased, and the steel inventory increased slightly compared with the previous week but was lower than the same period last year [98][104][108]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal in the country is 1.5342 million tons, with a slight increase. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke production and hot metal decreased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke has become marginally looser this week [110]. 3.5. Inventory - **Inventory Overview**: As of January 30, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 580,300 tons, with the inventory of sample mines decreasing, and the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increasing. The total coke inventory increased by 215,000 tons, with the inventories of independent coking plants and steel mills increasing [115]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The coking coal inventories of different sectors (sample mines, steel mills, coking plants, and ports) showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [115]. - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventories of different sectors (independent coking plants, steel mills, and ports) also showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [115].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the market is operating strongly. The pace of steel mill复产 is slow, and the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there are disturbances on the coking coal supply side, leading to a rebound in the market at a low level. In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation for the time being, and the market follows the cost to strengthen. Glass and soda ash follow the sector to strengthen, but the oversupply continues to limit the upside space of the market [1] - In general, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment intensity. At the same time, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the inventory replenishment expectation. At that time, the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the disturbance of macro - policies [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The arrival volume of iron ore has decreased, and the short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, but the inventory pressure is still increasing. The commodity sentiment is strong, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. The scrap steel supply is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - The possibility of a significant increase in coke supply is low, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. The output of domestic coal mines will gradually decline approaching the holiday, and the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. When the market rises to a high level, it may face selling pressure from hedging. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity restricts the upside space of the market. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the market is rising from a low level. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has shrunk slightly, the molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. In the off - season, the demand for building materials continues to weaken seasonally, and the steel export shows a sign of a high - level decline, but the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. The inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The market is expected to oscillate widely [8] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory is accumulating rapidly. Overseas mine shipping has increased, and the arrival volume has continued to weaken. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and the steel mill inventory is increasing rapidly. The port inventory is still accumulating. The short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still increasing. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrival volume this week has decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline seasonally. The supply of scrap steel is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [9] 3.5.4 Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the market sentiment is warm. The supply of coke has decreased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of steel mills is increasing steadily. The supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain stable after the price increase is implemented, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [12] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The spot price is oscillating weakly and stably, and the market is operating strongly. The domestic supply is stable, the import volume is still high, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is being continuously digested. The fundamentals have limited changes. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3.5.6 Glass - The downstream is approaching the holiday, and the production and sales are weakening month - on - month. The supply may be disturbed, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the price is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weakening, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [14][17] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the market is rising, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure at the upper level. The cost is expected to increase, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [17] 3.5.9 Silicon - Iron - The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it is difficult for the market to maintain a high level. The cost support still exists, the demand support is weakening, and the daily output is at a low level. The market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soda ash market is facing dual pressures of increasing supply and shrinking demand, with the downstream destocking motivation insufficient and the inventory accumulation trend expected to continue. In the short - term, it may maintain a volatile pattern, while in the long - term, it is expected to continue a weak operation. It is not recommended to blindly layout long positions before the core contradiction of oversupply is fundamentally alleviated [6]. - The glass industry is generally in a loss state, and the supply is expected to further tighten before the Spring Festival. Although the current inventory level is still high, the short - term supply contraction will be the main supporting factor for the price. However, the downstream real - estate data is weak year - on - year, and the demand expectation is under pressure. Before the substantial benefits such as capacity clearance are realized, the price is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly strong pattern. It is recommended to gradually reduce short positions [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market Review**: On January 28, the main soda ash contract SA605 oscillated strongly, closing at 1,198 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.33% from the previous day, with an intraday increase of 22,832 lots. The supply - demand fundamentals show that the market is under pressure from increasing supply and shrinking demand, and the downstream float glass industry's fundamentals are weakening [5][6]. - **Glass Market Review**: On January 28, 2025, the main glass futures contract FG2605 oscillated weakly. The glass industry is in a loss state, and the supply is expected to tighten. The current inventory is high, and the short - term supply contraction will support the price, but the downstream real - estate demand is weak [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For soda ash, do not blindly layout long positions before the oversupply problem is solved. For glass, it is recommended to gradually reduce short positions as the price approaches the key support level [6][7]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources including Wind and iFind [9][12][15]