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橡胶产业数据日报-20250822
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 05:36
胶产业数据日报 ITG 国贸期货 胶水 0 54. 70 54. 70 2025/8/22 | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 能源化工研究中心 叶海文 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 从业资格证号:F3071622 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 | | | 数据来源: Wind 钢联数据库 | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | | 期货盘面 | 国内 | RU主力 NR主力 | 15720 | 15675 | +45 | | | | | 12600 | 12525 | +75 | | | | BR主力 | 11775 | 11715 | +60 | | | 外盘 | Tocom RSS3(日元/千克) | 316. 5 | 313. 8 | +2.7 | | | | Sicom TF(美分/千克) | 170. 8 | 170. 8 | 0.0 | | | 跨期价差 | RU2601-RU2509 | 1000 | 955 | +45 | | | | RU2605-RU2601 | 95 | 105 ...
橡胶产业数据日报-20250821
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 07:48
Report Overview - Report Name: Rubber Industry Data Daily - Date: August 21, 2025 - Author: Ye Haiwen from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of ITG Futures [2][5] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The rubber market shows a volatile performance. With the cooling of the commodity market sentiment, the rubber futures盘面 has declined. The market is approaching the September delivery, returning to the fundamental logic, and the previous "anti - involution" trading expectation has cooled, resulting in a bearish commodity sentiment. Rubber may follow a weak - volatile trend. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the arbitrage strategy of going long on RU2509 and short on RU2601 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU主力 dropped from 15875 to 15675 (-200), NR主力 from 12690 to 12525 (-165), and BR主力 from 11840 to 11715 (-125) [3]. - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 decreased from 318.1 yen/kg to 313.8 yen/kg (-4.3), while Sicom TF remained unchanged at 172.4 cents/kg [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2601 - RU2509 decreased from 995 to 955 (-40), RU2605 - RU2601 increased from 85 to 105 (+20), NR主力 - 次主力 decreased from 60 to 50 (-10), and BR主力 - 次主力 remained at 10 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - NR decreased from 3185 to 3150 (-35), RU - BR from 4035 to 3960 (-75), and NR - BR from 850 to 810 (-40) [3]. - **Inter - market Spreads**: RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) increased from 56 to 58 (+2), and NR - Sicom TF ($) decreased from 43 to 21 (-22) [3]. 2. Raw Material Prices - **Thailand (THB/kg)**: The price of smoked sheet rubber decreased from 60.85 to 59.60 (-1.25), the price of latex remained at 54.70, and the price of cup lump decreased from 49.80 to 49.35 (-0.45) [3]. - **Hainan and Yunnan (CNY/ton)**: Hainan latex for concentrated latex increased from 14000 to 14400 (+400), Hainan latex for whole - milk remained at 13400, Yunnan latex for concentrated latex remained at 14500, and Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk decreased from 14200 to 14100 (-100) [3]. 3. Factory Costs and Profits - **Whole - milk Rubber Delivery Profits**: Hainan remained at 479, Yunnan remained at - 301, and Thailand decreased from 955 to 875 (-81) [3]. - **Concentrated Latex Production Profits**: Hainan decreased from 1000 to 640 (-360), Thailand smoked sheet rubber remained at 2779 [3]. - **Smoked Sheet and 20 - grade Rubber Gross Margins**: Thailand 20 - grade rubber remained at - 189, and domestic 9710 remained at 250 [3]. 4. Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: Old whole - milk decreased from 14900 to 14750 (-150), Vietnam 3L from 14900 to 14850 (-50), Thai mixed from 14650 to 14530 (-120), and Malaysian mixed from 14600 to 14480 (-120) [3]. - **Dark - colored Rubber**: Thai standard decreased from 12916 to 12813 (-103), and domestic standard II from 13900 to 13850 (-50) [3]. - **Other Types**: Domestic 9710 decreased from 14250 to 14150 (-100), Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk from 11750 to 11600 (-150), Shanghai: Hainan bulk from 11300 to 11200 (-100), synthetic rubber (cis - J BR9000) from 11750 to 11600 (-150), styrene - butadiene SBR1502 from 12350 to 12150 (-200), and styrene - butadiene SBR1712 from 11350 to 11200 (-150) [3]. 5. Overseas Spot - **Mixed Rubber**: Thai mixed CIF decreased from 1810 to 1795 (-15), Malaysian mixed CIF from 1800 to 1785 (-15) [3]. - **Standard Rubber**: Thai standard CIF decreased from 1810 to 1795 (-15), Malaysian standard CIF from 1800 to 1785 (-15), and Indian standard CIF from 1735 to 1720 (-15) [3]. 6. Futures - Spot Spreads - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed decreased from 230 to 190 (-40), RU - old whole - milk from - 20 to - 30 (-10), and RU - Vietnam 3L from - 20 to - 130 (-110) [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit decreased from - 451 to - 511 (-60), NR - Indian standard delivery profit from 88 to 64 (-24), and NR - Malaysian standard delivery profit from - 379 to - 439 (-60) [3]. 7. Spot Spreads - **Variety Spreads**: Thai standard - Thai mixed ($) decreased from 10 to 5 (-5), Vietnam 3L - Thai mixed increased from 250 to 320 (+70), domestic standard II - Thai mixed increased from - 750 to - 680 (+70), old whole - milk - Vietnam 3L decreased from 0 to - 100 (-100), and domestic 9710 - Thai mixed increased from - 400 to - 380 (+20) [3]. 8. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index remained at 98.2790, the US dollar/Chinese yuan increased from 7.1359 to 7.1384 (+0.002), the US dollar/Japanese yen remained at 147.6755, and the US dollar/Thai baht remained at 32.5550 [3]. - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR - overnight increased from 1.464 to 1.473 (+0.009), and SHIBOR - seven - day from 1.517 to 1.534 (+0.017) [3]. 9. Supply, Inventory, and Demand - **Supply**: In Thailand, the price of raw material latex is 54.7 THB/kg, and the price of cup lump is 49.35 THB/kg. In Yunnan, the price of latex for whole - milk is 14100 CNY/ton, and for concentrated latex is 14500 CNY/ton. In Hainan, the price of latex for whole - milk is 13400 CNY/ton, and for concentrated latex is 14400 CNY/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 17, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.75 million tons (0.6%). The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 80.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%, and the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 47.9 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% [3]. - **Demand**: As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.56 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.69 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.55 percentage points [3].
方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20250801
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 10:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soft commodity and fresh fruit sectors show complex market trends. In the soft commodity sector, sugar prices are expected to be volatile, pulp prices may adjust, and cotton prices may be weak. In the fresh fruit sector, apple prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and jujube prices may be affected by weather and consumption factors [3][4][6][7]. - Due to factors such as changes in the supply and demand of underlying products, international market conditions, and policy expectations, different trading strategies are recommended for each variety, including interval operation, option strategies, and short - term empty allocation [3][5][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures Strategy** - Apple 2510: Adopt a bearish approach. The fundamental changes are limited, and the sentiment has ebbed. The support range is 7300 - 7400, and the pressure range is 8200 - 8300 [7][16]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall sentiment of commodities is strengthening, and jujubes enter the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to weather premium. The support range is 10200 - 10400, and the pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures Strategy** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band operation. There are both long and short factors, and the upward pressure on futures prices is significant. The support range is 5740 - 5760, and the pressure range is 5880 - 5900 [3][16]. - Pulp 2507: Light - position short allocation. The fundamentals change little. After the market sentiment cools down, pulp prices may adjust, but the probability of falling to the June low is low. The support range is 5200 - 5250, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [4][5][16]. - Cotton 2509: Exit long positions. The previous bearish factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. The support range is 13200 - 13300, and the pressure range is 14200 - 14300 [6][7][16]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - **Fundamental Information** - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55% [17]. - As of July 30, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 616,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 88,400 tons. As of July 31, it was 576,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 410,500 tons [17]. - Different institutions have different estimates of apple production. Zhuochuang estimates a slight reduction, while Steel Union estimates a slight increase [17]. - **Spot Market** - The price of cold - storage apples in the production area remained stable this week. After the high - price opening of early - maturing apples, the transaction price declined. The sales volume of cold - storage apples in the sales area slightly increased, and the price remained stable [18][19]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of July 25, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 73.07%. The inventory in the Hebei market decreased, and the price of good - quality products increased. The price in the Guangdong market remained stable [20]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market Consulting firm StoneX lowered Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production forecast to 40.16 million tons, a decrease of 1.64 million tons from the May forecast. The spot price of sugar in China remained stable [22]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market The price of imported bleached softwood pulp was stable, and the price of bleached hardwood pulp decreased by $10/ton in July compared to June. The fundamentals of the pulp and paper industry chain changed little [4][25]. 3.2.5 Cotton Market - India's new - season cotton sowing progress is behind last year, with the sown area as of July 25 being 10.3 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.0% compared to the same period last year [26]. - Pakistan imposed an 18% sales tax on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton grey cloth [26]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review** - Apple 2510 closed at 7814, down 101, or 1.28%. - Jujube 2509 closed at 9580, down 60, or 0.62%. - Sugar 2509 closed at 5793, down 11, or 0.19%. - Pulp 2509 closed at 5232, down 94, or 1.76%. - Cotton 2509 closed at 13650, down 105, or 0.76% [27]. - **Spot Market Review** - The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous period and down 0.25 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of jujubes was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan from the previous period and down 5.30 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of sugar was 6030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 520 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous period and down 120 yuan year - on - year. - The spot price of cotton was 15325 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan from the previous period and down 95 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis content is provided, only the figure numbers are given, such as Figure 14 for the basis of Apple 10th month [38]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - monthly Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 67, down 33 from the previous period and up 10 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate repeatedly, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1115, down 1165 from the previous period and down 775 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate within a range, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [47]. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 138, unchanged from the previous period and down 193 year - on - year, expected to be weak within a range, and the recommended strategy is to go long on 01 and short on 09 [47]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation Only the figure numbers for the top 20 long and short positions, trading volume changes, and net long and short position changes of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [56][58][63]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple's warehouse receipt volume is 0, unchanged from the previous period and year - on - year. - Jujube's warehouse receipt volume is 8739, unchanged from the previous period and down 2131 year - on - year. - Sugar's warehouse receipt volume is 19473, down 47 from the previous period and up 3357 year - on - year. - Pulp's warehouse receipt volume is 254637, down 340 from the previous period and down 246468 year - on - year. - Cotton's warehouse receipt volume is 8940, down 115 from the previous period and down 2400 year - on - year [77]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data Only the figure numbers for option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility of each variety are provided, without specific data analysis [79][81][82].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250725
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 01:52
Report Overview - Date: July 25, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products - Report Focus: Analysis of various agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, etc. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Palm oil: Boosted by the macro - environment, but beware of sentiment reversal [2][4] - Soybean oil: Pay attention to Sino - US trade progress, relatively weak among varieties [2][4] - Soybean meal: US soybeans rose slightly, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][10] - Soybean: Fluctuating [2][10] - Corn: Focus on the spot market [2][13] - Sugar: Bullish sentiment [2][18] - Cotton: Fluctuate following the commodity market sentiment [2][23] - Eggs: Peak season arrives first, culling sentiment declines [2][29] - Pigs: Reverse spread structure formed [2][31] - Peanuts: There is support at the bottom [2][37] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's day - trading closing price was 9,104 yuan/ton with a 1.22% increase, and night - trading was 9,016 yuan/ton with a - 0.97% change. Soybean oil's day - trading was 8,166 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase, and night - trading was 8,142 yuan/ton with a - 0.29% change. Spot prices of palm oil and soybean oil in Guangdong both increased by 50 yuan/ton [4] - **News**: Malaysia's MPOB expects 2025 crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons. Indonesia's GAPKI predicts 2025 palm oil exports to drop to 28 million tons while production rises to 50 million tons [5][7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2509's day - trading closed at 3,025 yuan/ton with a - 2.29% change, and night - trading was 3,029 yuan/ton with a - 0.39% change. DCE soybean 2509's day - trading was 4,224 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change, and night - trading was 4,221 yuan/ton with a + 0.36% change [10] - **News**: On July 24, CBOT soybean futures mostly closed higher, driven by technical buying and trade hopes. A Chinese buyer signed a 30,000 - ton Argentine soybean meal import agreement, causing CBOT soybean meal prices to fall [9][10][12] Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2509's day - trading closed at 2,321 yuan/ton with a - 0.17% change, and night - trading was 2,314 yuan/ton with a - 0.30% change. C2511's day - trading was 2,274 yuan/ton with a - 0.26% change, and night - trading was 2,265 yuan/ton with a - 0.40% change [13] - **News**: Northern corn collection port prices were stable, and prices in Northeast China and North China showed different trends. Imported grains like sorghum and barley also had corresponding price quotes [14] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The original sugar price was 16.57 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 6,030 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract price was 5,866 yuan/ton [18] - **News**: Pakistan approved the import of 500,000 tons of sugar. Brazil's central - southern region's sugarcane crushing progress was slow, but the MIX increased significantly. ISO predicted a 24/25 global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons [18][20] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2509's day - trading closed at 14,160 yuan/ton with a - 0.14% change, and night - trading was 14,225 yuan/ton with a 0.46% change. CY2509's day - trading was 20,360 yuan/ton with a 0.05% change, and night - trading was 20,425 yuan/ton with a 0.32% change [23] - **News**: The cotton spot basis was generally stable, new offers increased, and the cotton textile market was weak with slow sales and inventory accumulation [24] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2508 closed at 3,562 yuan/500 kg with a - 1.25% change, and Egg 2510 closed at 3,399 yuan/500 kg with a - 0.29% change [29] - **News**: The peak season for eggs has arrived, and the culling sentiment has declined [29] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: Henan's spot price was 14,230 yuan/ton, Sichuan's was 13,650 yuan/ton, and Guangdong's was 15,440 yuan/ton. Futures prices for different contracts also showed corresponding changes [33] - **News**: In the short - term, the LH2509 contract has a support level of 13,500 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 15,000 yuan/ton. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the spot price is weak [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: PK510 closed at 8,130 yuan/ton with a - 0.15% change, and PK511 closed at 7,990 yuan/ton with a 0.15% change [37] - **News**: The peanut spot market in Henan was mainly for inventory trading, and new peanuts in some areas were expected to be on the market in about 20 days [38]
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250724
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 02:30
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 甲醇产业期现日报 2025年7月24日 张晓珍 Z0003135 免责声明 甲醇价格及价差 | 品相 | 7月23日 | 7月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | MA2601 收盘价 | 2497 | 2536 | -39 | -1.54% | | | MA2509 收盘价 | 2411 | 2457 | -46 | -1.87% | | | MA91价差 | -86 | -79 | -7 | 8.86% | | | 太仓基差 | -1 | -42 | 41 | -97.62% | | | 内蒙北线现货 | 2038 | 1990 | 48 | 2.39% | 元/吨 | | 河南洛阳现货 | 2198 | 2175 | 23 | 1.03% | | | 港口太仓现货 | 2410 | 2415 | -5 | -0.21% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-内蒙北线 | 373 | 425 | -53 | -12.35% | | | 区域价差: 太仓-洛阳 | 213 | 24 ...
广发期货《能源化工》日报-20250723
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 03:15
1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures market is boosted by policies, with expectations of industry capacity - reduction. Spot transactions are average, and prices in Shandong and Guangdong have decreased. Low - grade caustic soda has low inventory in most enterprises due to alumina demand, but non - aluminum downstream resists high prices. Short - term macro disturbances increase trading risks, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait and see [2][4]. - The PVC futures market is also boosted by policies, with expectations of industry capacity - reduction. The spot market has light transactions and little price fluctuation. It is in a slack season with increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. Short - term trading is more influenced by macro - sentiment, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Methanol - In the inland market, methanol prices fluctuate slightly. Supply may increase as the maintenance losses in July are high but there are expectations of resumption. Demand is restricted by the traditional off - season, and new capacity launch affects the market. At the port, the basis strengthens, Iranian device production returns, and imports are expected to be 1.25 million tons in July and slightly decline in August. There may be inventory accumulation from July to August due to the combination of import recovery and olefin maintenance [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Although some PX devices have load fluctuations, and terminal demand feedback is negative, PX supply is still expected to be tight, and PXN has some support. The short - term PX09 is expected to operate in the range of 6,600 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [10]. - PTA: The current PTA load is around 80% with new device launch expectations, and terminal demand is weak. Considering the tight PX supply and the strong domestic commodity market sentiment, the TA09 - TA01 spread can be rolled in a reverse way, and the PTA processing fee around 250 yuan/ton can be used for short - selling attempts [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: Multiple coal - based ethylene glycol devices stopped unexpectedly in mid - July, leading to lower - than - expected supply increase and reduced import expectations. Short - term port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term EG2509 - P - 4300 put option seller can hold the position [10]. - Short - fiber: Although short - fiber factories plan to cut production in July, the overall supply and demand are weak in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials [10]. - Bottle - chip: July is the peak season for soft - drink consumption, and there are expectations of improved demand. However, considering the high historical supply level, attention should be paid to whether the device production cuts increase and the downstream follow - up situation [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices fluctuated weakly, mainly due to macro - pressure. The approaching US trade negotiation deadline on August 1st has not alleviated the macro - tension, and the threat of a 30% tariff may suppress oil demand. Although there are expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventory, trade tariff uncertainties are the core contradiction. It is recommended to adopt a short - term band - trading strategy, with support levels at [63, 64] for WTI, [66, 67] for Brent, and [498, 505] for SC. Options can be used to capture volatility opportunities [13][14]. Urea - The core driver of the urea futures market comes from macro - policies. Policies to optimize the industrial structure and eliminate backward production capacity are considered beneficial to the urea industry. Export data shows weakness, and the market focuses on new policy support. The futures price stimulates the spot trading atmosphere, and the basis is expected to be repaired. In the short term, there is no significant reduction in demand and capacity. In the long term, the transformation of coal - based urea capacity structure may be promoted. Attention should be paid to export quota implementation, trading volume recovery, and market expectations [15]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - In terms of valuation, the marginal profit is gradually recovering, and both PE and PP have supply - demand contraction and inventory accumulation, with weak demand. PP maintenance has reached its peak, PE maintenance first increases and then decreases, and there are few import offers. Demand is expected to pick up seasonally at the end of July. Strategically, the market sentiment is warm, PP is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see for short positions, while PE can be bought in the range [20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve in July. Although there is news of production cuts from some devices, the impact on loss volume is limited. Downstream price transmission is poor except for styrene, and import expectations are high with high port inventory. Short - term pure benzene may be boosted by the strong domestic commodity market, but the rebound space is limited. The main contract BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [25]. - Styrene: The styrene industry has high - level operation with maintained profits. The basis of near - month contracts weakens, and the profits of some downstream industries are slightly repaired. The supply - demand situation is marginally improved but still weak in expectation, and port inventory continues to increase. Short - term styrene is boosted by the market, but the increase is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and high valuation. The EB09 is expected to operate in the range of 7,100 - 7,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7,500 yuan/ton and short - selling opportunities. The EB - BZ spread can be shorted at high levels [25]. 3. Summaries by Catalog PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: Shandong 50% caustic soda price decreased by 2.2% from July 21st to July 22nd; East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price increased by 0.8%. Some futures contracts such as SH2509 and V2509 also had significant price increases [2]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry's operating rate increased by 1.3% from July 11th to July 18th, and the PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1% [2]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate increased by 1.0%, and the viscose staple fiber industry's operating rate increased by 8.7% from July 11th to July 18th. The PVC downstream product operating rate showed mixed trends [3][4]. - **Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda inventory in East China factories and Shandong increased, while the PVC upstream factory inventory decreased, and the total social inventory increased [4]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: MA2601 and MA2509 prices increased by 2.18% and 1.91% respectively from July 21st to July 22nd. The basis and regional spreads also changed [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 1.28%, and port inventory increased by 9.92% [7]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 1.94%, and some downstream operating rates such as MTBE increased, while others like formaldehyde decreased [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and prices of other upstream products such as CFR Japan naphtha and CFR China MX also had different degrees of decline [10]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX price increased by 0.1%, and PX basis, spreads, and processing fees changed [10]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA spot price decreased by 0.2%, and futures prices increased slightly. PTA processing fees decreased [10]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG spot price increased by 0.4%, and futures prices also increased. MEG basis and spreads changed [10]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: Brent oil price decreased by 0.90%, and WTI oil price increased by 0.52% on July 23rd compared to July 22nd. Spreads such as Brent M1 - M3 and WTI M1 - M3 also changed [13]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.28%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 2.12%. Refined oil spreads also had different changes [13]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The synthetic ammonia price in Shandong increased by 1.54%, and some urea spot prices in different regions increased slightly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production decreased slightly, and factory inventory decreased, while port inventory increased [17]. - **Market Sentiment**: The futures market is affected by policies, and the spot market trading atmosphere is stimulated [17]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 prices increased, and spot prices of华东PP拉丝 and华北LLDPE膜料 also increased [20]. - **Operating Rates**: PE and PP device operating rates increased slightly, and some downstream operating rates changed [20]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased [20]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices decreased, and CFR Japan naphtha price decreased by 1.2% [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The CFR China pure benzene price increased by 0.5%, and the pure benzene basis and import profit changed [24]. - **Styrene**: The styrene East China spot price decreased by 0.8%, and styrene basis, spreads, and cash - flow changed [24]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased, and the operating rates of related industries changed [25].
PTA:宏观情绪偏强提振下 PTA短期受到支撑
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-22 03:39
Supply and Demand - As of July 18, PTA operating rates remain stable at 79.7% with no significant changes in production [3] - Polyester operating rates have slightly decreased to approximately 88.3%, down by 0.5% [3] - Demand for polyester continues to be weak due to the off-season and high temperatures, leading to increased inventory pressure in factories [3] - The cash flow for polyester yarn is limited, with only POY showing slight profitability while FDY is experiencing overall losses [3] Market Outlook - PTA operating rates are maintained around 80%, with expectations for new PTA production from Sanfangxiang (600370) [4] - Weak terminal demand is leading to further expectations of production cuts in downstream polyester [4] - Despite weak supply and demand expectations for PTA, the overall sentiment in the domestic commodity market is relatively strong, providing some support for PTA prices [4] - Short-term trading strategy for TA is expected to fluctuate between 4600-4800, with bearish sentiment above 4800 [4] Cost Analysis - As of July 21, PTA spot processing fees are around 239 CNY/ton, while the processing fee for TA2509 is 285 CNY/ton [2]
五矿期货文字早评-20250717
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 01:03
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, including policy announcements, economic data, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show varying trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][6]. - For stocks, the market may experience style rotations, and it is advisable to go long on IF stock index futures at dips. For bonds, interest rates are expected to trend downward in the long - term, and it is recommended to enter the market at dips. For precious metals, silver is favored for long - positions due to the expected weakening of the Fed's independence. In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals face different supply - demand situations, with some expected to be under pressure and others to be in a volatile state. In the energy and chemical sector, each product has its own supply - demand characteristics, and investment strategies vary accordingly. In the agricultural products sector, different products also present different investment opportunities based on factors such as supply, demand, and policy [3][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: The State Council meeting discussed key policies for the domestic market and the new energy vehicle industry. The national power load hit a new high. Huang Renxun predicted the development of AI in the robot system. US PPI and inflation data were released, and Ethereum prices rose [2]. - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH showed different basis ratios. The trading logic suggests paying attention to the impact of US tariffs and the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures at dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: TL, T, and TF contracts declined slightly, while the TS contract rose slightly on Wednesday. - **News**: US CPI data was released, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September is high. The US - China tariff truce deadline is flexible. - **Strategy**: The economy showed resilience in Q2, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank's actions indicate a loose money - supply attitude, and it is recommended to enter the bond market at dips [4][6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold fell slightly and COMEX silver rose slightly. - **Market Outlook**: The "removal - of - Fed - chair" incident supported precious metal prices. The weakening of the Fed's independence is expected to drive precious metal prices higher, and it is recommended to go long on silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper prices fell, and Shanghai copper prices were stable. LME copper inventory increased, and the cancellation warrant ratio decreased. - **Outlook**: Trump's tariff on copper may widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, and copper prices are expected to be under pressure and trade in a weak - volatile range [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum prices fell, and Shanghai aluminum prices were stable. Shanghai aluminum contract positions decreased, and LME aluminum inventory increased. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity market is positive, but aluminum has inventory accumulation pressure due to factors such as low - level processing fees and weak downstream demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai and LME zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot production is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, they are expected to be volatile due to factors such as Fed policy expectations and the photovoltaic industry [12][13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai and LME lead prices fell. Lead supply is relatively loose, and social inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to a slight oversupply in the lead market [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices fell on Wednesday. A fire incident had limited impact on supply. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are expected to fall. It is recommended to go short on nickel at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices were weak on Tuesday. - **Outlook**: Supply is short, and demand is weak. Due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar, tin prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures contract price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is unfavorable, and it is recommended to pay attention to news and market sentiment [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index fell, and the spot price in some regions rose. - **Outlook**: The long - term over - capacity situation remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices considering the overall market sentiment [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: It is in the traditional off - season, and demand is weak. Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The futures contract price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: It is in the off - season, and prices are expected to face resistance due to factors such as aluminum price pressure and large futures - spot price differences [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: The market is affected by the Central Urban Work Conference. The current fundamental contradiction is not obvious, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and demand recovery [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron - ore futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Supply is stable, demand is slightly weak, and iron - ore prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price fell slightly, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fell, inventory increased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices fell. - **Outlook**: The fundamental situation is bearish, but the short - term market is affected by sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the spot price rose slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is excessive, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to be rational and consider hedging for the industry [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices rose and then fluctuated slightly. - **Outlook**: There are different views on the market. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - term and neutral - to - bullish in the short - term [36][40]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures prices fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of high - reality and low - expectation. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [41]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The methanol futures price fell, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The urea futures price rose slightly, and the spot price fell. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [43]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, and the futures price rose. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost - side [44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC futures price fell, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG futures price rose, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The short - term is expected to be strong, but the long - term fundamentals are weak [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA futures price rose, and the spot price rose slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is under pressure, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [48]. Para - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX futures price rose, and the CFR price fell. - **Outlook**: The short - term valuation is compressed, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile due to factors such as trade policy and seasonal demand [50]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July due to weak supply and demand [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Pig prices fell. - **Outlook**: Short - term long - positions may be profitable, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Egg prices were stable or rose. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short - sell [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Important Information**: US soybeans rebounded, and domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices and wait for new supply - side drivers [56][58]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data and Indian vegetable oil import data were released. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to be volatile due to factors such as production and policy [59][61]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weak and volatile. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to decline if the external market does not rebound significantly [62][63]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [64].
纯碱玻璃周报:市场情绪扰动为主,纯碱玻璃反弹空间有限-20250428
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 14:30
国内CPI、PPI、PMI走势及房地产数据 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 2021-07 2021-11 2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 中国CPI(%) CPI:当月同比 CPI:环比 -2 -1 -1 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 2020-07 2020-11 2021-03 2021-07 2021-11 2022-03 2022-07 2022-11 2023-03 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 中国PPI(%) PPI:当月同比(左轴) PPI:环比(右轴) 35 40 45 50 55 制造业PMI 生产 新订单 原材料库存 从业人员 供应商配送时间 新出口订单 进口 采购量 主要原材料购进价格 出厂价格 产成品库存 在手 ...