Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the geopolitical risks in Iran, there are still risks in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong, with China's PTA production in January expected to reach a new high and no production cut plan for the Spring Festival. With no new PTA production capacity throughout the year, existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply remains tight, with limited global effective capacity release. The PX - mixed xylene toluene spread remains around $150, and although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative feedback on PTA. Bottle chip profits are expanding, while short - fiber profits are declining [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price increased from 5140 to 5180, a change of 40; MEG inner - market price increased from 3623 to 3652, a change of 29; PTA closing price increased from 5230 to 5260, a change of 30; MEG closing price increased from 3733 to 3764, a change of 31; 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased from 6585 to 6590, a change of 5; short - fiber basis decreased from 52 to 16, a change of - 36; 3 - 4 spread increased from - 74 to - 66, a change of 8; polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6; 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained at 5300; the spread between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1285 to 1290, a change of 5; East China water bottle chip price increased from 6270 to 6275, a change of 5; hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 6270 to 6275, a change of 5; carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6370 to 6375, a change of 5; outer - market water bottle chip price increased from 840 to 845, a change of 5; bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 662 to 623, a change of - 39; T32S pure polyester yarn price remained at 10700; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4115 to 4110, a change of - 5; polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained at 16800; cotton 328 price increased from 15710 to 15765, a change of 55; polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1496 to 1472, a change of - 24; primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained at 7290; hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 482 to 438, a change of - 44; primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The main short - fiber futures rose 42 to 6654. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were mainly stagnant, the prices of traders fluctuated within a range, downstream demand was weak, and on - site transactions were sluggish. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6470 - 6700 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included self - pick - up; in the North China market, it was 6590 - 6820 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery; in the Fujian market, it was 6550 - 6750 yuan for cash on delivery, tax - included delivery. Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 6280 - 6360 yuan/ton, with the average price rising 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The futures prices of PTA and bottle chips fluctuated warmly. Most supply - side offers were raised, the market's spot supply was tight, downstream terminal demand was relatively weak, and the market negotiation focus increased [2] Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - The direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) increased from 86.77% to 88.84%, a change of 2.07%; the polyester staple fiber sales ratio decreased from 38.00% to 31.00%, a change of - 7.00%; the polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32%; the recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 55.44% to 54.81%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PX maintains fundamental resilience during high - level corrections. Despite a decline in the PX - naphtha spread to $335 per ton, it remains at a healthy level. The supply of PX is still tight, and the downstream PTA industry is continuously strong. The reduction in production by polyester factories has a limited negative feedback on PTA [3]. - The reduction in ethylene glycol exports from the Middle East after a long - term slump has boosted market confidence. The supply contraction has opened up room for price increases in ethylene glycol [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 465.4 yuan/barrel on February 6th to 464.2 yuan/barrel on February 9th, a change of - 1.20 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased from 1783.9 yuan to 1818.6 yuan, a change of 34.72 yuan; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.5274 to 1.5391, a change of 0.0117; PTA主力期价 increased from 5166 yuan/ton to 5192 yuan/ton, a change of 26 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 increased from 5085 yuan/ton to 5115 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton; 现货加工费 decreased from 412.2 yuan/ton to 406.2 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 increased from 448.2 yuan/ton to 468.2 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from (72) to (75), a change of - 3; PTA仓单数量 increased from 103,568 to 104,168, a change of 600 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 decreased from 3743 yuan/ton to 3739 yuan/ton, a change of - 4 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha increased from (195.44) yuan/ton to (194.13) yuan/ton, a change of 1.3 yuan/ton; MEG内盘 increased from 3630 yuan/ton to 3635 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton; 主力基差 decreased from - 102 to - 105, a change of - 3 [3]. - **PX**: CFR中国PX increased from 898 to 900, a change of 2; PX - naphtha spread increased from 294 to 297, a change of 4 [3]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F remained at 7005; POY现金流 decreased from 191 to 164, a change of - 27; FDY150D/96F remained at 7240; FDY现金流 decreased from (74) to (101), a change of - 27; DTY150D/48F remained at 8140; DTY现金流 decreased from 126 to 99, a change of - 27; 长丝产销 remained at 12%; 1.4D直纺涤短 increased from 6535 to 6575, a change of 40; 涤短现金流 increased from 71 to 84, a change of 13; 短纤产销 decreased from 56% to 41%, a change of - 15%; 半光切片 increased from 5860 to 5880, a change of 20; 切片现金流 decreased from (54) to (61), a change of - 7; 切片产销 decreased from 64% to 22%, a change of - 42 [3]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - PX开工率 remained at 85.92%; PTA开工率 remained at 76.73%; MEG开工率 remained at 61.67%; 聚酯负荷 decreased from 78.14% to 77.49%, a change of - 0.65% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East China 3.6 - million - ton PTA device is currently reducing its load and is expected to be shut down for maintenance on the 15th. A South China 1.25 - million - ton PTA device is expected to be shut down on the 16th and is initially expected to restart in late March [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the commodity market has declined. PX maintains fundamental resilience during its high - level correction. Due to the geopolitical risks in Iran, there are still risks in crude oil prices. The downstream PTA industry remains strong. China's PTA production in January is expected to reach a new high, with no plans for Spring Festival production cuts. There are no new PTA production capacities throughout the year, and existing facilities will operate at full capacity to meet the growing polyester demand, providing a solid demand foundation for PX. The PX supply side remains tight. The TDP plant in South Korea has increased its load, and a PX plant in the Middle East is scheduled to shut down before February, resulting in limited global effective capacity release. The PX - mixed xylene toluene spread remains at around $150. In terms of profit structure, although the PX - naphtha spread has fallen to $335/ton, it is still at a healthy level. Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, domestic demand has declined, and the production cuts of polyester factories have a limited negative impact on PTA. Bottle chip profits are expanding, while short - fiber profits are declining [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Price Indicators - PTA spot price increased from 5085 to 5115, a change of 30 [2] - MEG inner - market price increased from 3630 to 3635, a change of 5 [2] - PTA closing price increased from 5166 to 5192, a change of 26 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 3743 to 3739, a change of - 4 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price increased from 6535 to 6575, a change of 40 [2] - Short - fiber basis increased from 39 to 41, a change of 2 [2] - 3 - 4 spread remained unchanged at - 80 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5300 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber increased from 1235 to 1275, a change of 40 [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 6247 to 6233, a change of - 14 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6247 to 6233, a change of - 14 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6347 to 6333, a change of - 14 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price remained unchanged at 835 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10700 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4165 to 4125, a change of - 40 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16800 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 15615 to 15630, a change of 15 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1565 to 1533, a change of - 32 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7290 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow decreased from 526 to 499, a change of - 27 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7895 [2] Market Conditions - Short - fiber: The short - fiber main futures rose 38 to 6606. In the spot market, the prices of polyester staple fiber production factories were on the strong side, the prices of traders increased slightly, downstream purchases were sporadic, and on - site transactions were limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6420 - 6700 (cash on delivery, tax - included, self - pick - up), 6540 - 6820 in the North China market (cash on delivery, tax - included, delivered), and 6500 - 6750 in the Fujian market (cash on delivery, tax - included, delivered) [2] - Bottle chip: The commodity atmosphere was warm. Some polyester bottle chip factories raised their quotes by 10 - 50, and some remained stable. The market center rose slightly. As the Spring Festival approached, logistics decreased, and long - distance logistics costs increased. Small and medium - sized terminal enterprises gradually withdrew from the market, and the festival atmosphere in the market became stronger. It was reported that the transactions of 2 - 3 month supplies were at 6110 - 6300. In terms of basis, the futures contract 2604 had a premium of 70 - 100, and there was sporadic replenishment for rigid demand [2] Operating Rate and Sales - to - Production Ratio - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) decreased from 88.84% to 86.77%, a change of 2.07% [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales - to - production ratio decreased from 52.00% to 38.00%, a change of - 14.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) increased from 70.00% to 70.32%, a change of 0.32% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) decreased from 54.81% to 55.44%, a change of - 0.63% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, the report maintains the view that the long - position trend of commodities will continue. However, in the short term, the sharp adjustment of precious metals after a sharp rise has dragged down the sentiment of the non - ferrous and commodity long - positions, which may still suppress the overall market atmosphere [20]. - The weekly static supply - demand structure of coking coal has become looser due to the gradual recovery of supply after the New Year's Day, the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the slow resumption of hot metal production. Coke also shows a relatively loose situation. Although downstream players are still replenishing inventory, the inventory replenishment is coming to an end, and the downstream steel mills' willingness to replenish inventory is low. Therefore, the inventory replenishment is unlikely to drive up prices [20]. - Although the coking coal price has occasional abnormal increases driven by external disturbances and capital, the short - term upward impetus is not strong. On the one hand, the fundamental support is insufficient; on the other hand, the market sentiment does not support a strong upward trend. Also, considering the time node, there is a risk of price correction after the Spring Festival, unless there are sudden supply - side incidents. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in 2026, especially from June to October [20][22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review** - In January, the coking coal futures price showed a volatile rebound, with a monthly increase of 51.5 yuan/ton or +4.63%. Last week, it showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 14.5 yuan/ton or - 1.15%. The overseas coal - related disturbances, though not directly affecting the domestic short - term fundamentals, have a positive impact on market sentiment. Meanwhile, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals have amplified the volatility of coking coal futures [11][14]. - In January, the coke futures price showed a wide - range volatile trend, with a monthly increase of 31.5 yuan/ton or +1.86%. Last week, it also showed a trend of rising first and then falling, with a weekly decline of 20.5 yuan/ton or - 1.19%. The price movement mainly depends on the cost - side coking coal fluctuations [18]. - **Monthly Key Points Summary** - **Spot Price and Basis**: Different types of coking coal and coke have different price changes and basis situations. For example, Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal is at 1550.6 yuan/ton, with a certain price change compared to the previous period, and the basis shows a premium to the futures [19]. - **Variety Positions**: The current position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is also abnormally high and increasing, so the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases needs to be watched [19]. - **Domestic Output**: The daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines decreased by 1.62 tons month - on - month due to the Spring Festival holiday. However, the cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the misalignment of the Lunar New Year) [19]. - **Overseas Imports**: The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed [19]. - **Demand**: The total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased by 0.53 tons month - on - month. The independent coking plant's coking profit is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate remained stable. The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 41.08 tons month - on - month but increased by 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory increased by 89.03 tons month - on - month but decreased by 386.97 tons year - on - year [19]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke is marginally looser [20]. - **Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [20]. - **Summary and Outlook**: In the short term, the upward impetus for coking coal is weak. After the Spring Festival, there is a risk of price correction. However, coking coal may have a good upward trend from June to October in 2026 [20][22]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Coking Coal Spot Price**: As of February 5, 2026, different types of coking coal, such as low - sulfur, medium - sulfur, and Mongolian coking coal, have different price changes compared to the previous period and different basis situations with the futures [26][28][31]. - **Coke Spot Price**: As of February 5, 2026, the prices of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke have changed compared to the previous period, and their basis with the futures also shows different situations [37]. - **Coking Coal Basis and Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Shanxi low - sulfur coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coking coal is - 76 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is in contango [44][47]. - **Coke Basis and Spread**: As of February 5, 2026, the basis of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke has changed compared to the previous period. The 5 - 9 spread of coke is - 66 yuan/ton, and the overall structure is also in contango [50][53]. 3.3 Positions and Variety Ratios - **Variety Positions**: As of February 5, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal is 647,700 lots, an increase of 30,800 lots month - on - month, and it is still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral position of coke is 39,000 lots, an increase of 400 lots month - on - month. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and the 4 - month contract position is abnormally high and increasing [62][63]. - **Variety Ratios**: This week, the ratio of JM/I increased by 0.07, and HC/JM decreased by 0.06, indicating that coking coal performed slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, JM/I is still at a low historical level, and the valuation of coking coal relative to iron ore is low. The ratio of J/I increased by 0.11, HC/J decreased by 0.04, and JM/J remained basically stable, indicating that coke was slightly stronger than iron ore and hot - rolled coil this week. Currently, J/I is also at a low historical level, and the valuation of coke relative to iron ore is low [69][72]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Output**: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines is 75.45 tons, a decrease of 1.62 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output increased by about 188 tons or +4.52% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The daily average output of clean coal from 314 sample coal - washing plants is 26.31 tons, a decrease of 0.46 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output increased by about 240 tons or +27.3% year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [77][79]. - **Imported Coking Coal**: As of January 31, 2026, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased to 12.33 tons/day but is still at a relatively high level in the same period. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Mongolian coking coal increased by 328.19 tons or +5.78% year - on - year. The import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 316 yuan/ton, and the import window remains closed. In 2025, China's cumulative imports of Australian coking coal decreased by 144.58 tons or - 14.03% year - on - year. China's imports of coking coal from Russia and Canada increased in 2025, while imports from the United States decreased significantly due to tariffs [82][85][88]. - **Coke Output**: As of February 5, 2026, the total daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants is 10.38 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons month - on - month. The cumulative output decreased by about 71.19 tons or - 1.52% year - on - year. The coking profit of independent coking plants is - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan/ton month - on - month. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants increased month - on - month [94][97]. - **Downstream Steel Industry**: As of February 5, 2026, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises is 228.58 tons, an increase of 0.60 tons month - on - month, and the steel mill profitability rate is 39.39%, remaining stable month - on - month. The estimated disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil are - 164 yuan/ton and - 107 yuan/ton respectively, with a slight month - on - month increase. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 760.66 tons, a decrease of 41.08 tons month - on - month but an increase of 145.1 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment). The available steel inventory is 2439.65 tons, an increase of 89.03 tons month - on - month but a decrease of 386.97 tons year - on - year (affected by the Lunar New Year misalignment) [100][106][110]. - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily average supply of coking coal nationwide is 150.89 tons, with a slight decline month - on - month. The estimated daily average demand for coking coal converted from coke output and hot metal both increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal is marginally looser. The estimated daily average demand for coke converted from hot metal is about 109.72 tons, still slightly lower than the daily average coke output, and the supply - demand structure of coke is also marginally looser [112]. 3.5 Inventory - **Inventory Overview**: As of February 5, 2026, the total coking coal inventory increased by 61.29 tons, with different changes in different sectors such as mines, coking plants, steel mills, and ports. The total coke inventory increased by 15.58 tons, also with different inventory changes in different sectors [115][116].

黑色建材日报 2026-02-03 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3098 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 30 元/吨（-0.95%）。当日注册仓单 14841 吨, 环比减少 2442 吨。主力合约持仓量为 178.41 万手，环比增加 49987 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3261 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 27 元/吨（-0.82%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比增加 9124 吨。主力合约持仓量为 149.88 万手，环比减少 30859 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 30 ...

陈张滢（黑色建材组） 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 商品市场情绪短期受到压制，双焦 盘面预计继续呈现震荡走势 双焦周报 2026/01/31 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 持仓及品种比价 图1： 焦煤加权指数价格走势（元/吨，日线） 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 01 周度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 上周，焦煤盘面价格延续宽幅震荡的走势，周度涨幅0.5元/吨或+0.04%（针对加权指数，下同）。驱动方面，本周最突出的是商品市场的剧 烈波动，包括金银持续创下新高后的高位跳水，而触发这一切的根源或在于新任命的美联储主席凯文·沃什所引发的市场对于分母端边际转 紧的预期。此外，此前强势的碳酸锂也出现大幅回落，整体压制着商品整体情绪。但黑色板块方面，房地产"三道红线"的放松、万科债务 问题顺利展期等使其短期具有自身在情绪上的呵护。技术形态角度，焦煤盘面仍处于日线级别的反弹周期中，下方关注1100元/吨附近支撑， 上方继续关注1260元/吨附近压力位置（2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the market is operating strongly. The pace of steel mill复产 is slow, and the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there are disturbances on the coking coal supply side, leading to a rebound in the market at a low level. In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation for the time being, and the market follows the cost to strengthen. Glass and soda ash follow the sector to strengthen, but the oversupply continues to limit the upside space of the market [1] - In general, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment intensity. At the same time, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the inventory replenishment expectation. At that time, the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the disturbance of macro - policies [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The arrival volume of iron ore has decreased, and the short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, but the inventory pressure is still increasing. The commodity sentiment is strong, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. The scrap steel supply is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - The possibility of a significant increase in coke supply is low, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. The output of domestic coal mines will gradually decline approaching the holiday, and the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. When the market rises to a high level, it may face selling pressure from hedging. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity restricts the upside space of the market. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the market is rising from a low level. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has shrunk slightly, the molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. In the off - season, the demand for building materials continues to weaken seasonally, and the steel export shows a sign of a high - level decline, but the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. The inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The market is expected to oscillate widely [8] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory is accumulating rapidly. Overseas mine shipping has increased, and the arrival volume has continued to weaken. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and the steel mill inventory is increasing rapidly. The port inventory is still accumulating. The short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still increasing. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrival volume this week has decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline seasonally. The supply of scrap steel is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [9] 3.5.4 Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the market sentiment is warm. The supply of coke has decreased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of steel mills is increasing steadily. The supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain stable after the price increase is implemented, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [12] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The spot price is oscillating weakly and stably, and the market is operating strongly. The domestic supply is stable, the import volume is still high, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is being continuously digested. The fundamentals have limited changes. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3.5.6 Glass - The downstream is approaching the holiday, and the production and sales are weakening month - on - month. The supply may be disturbed, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the price is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weakening, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [14][17] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the market is rising, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure at the upper level. The cost is expected to increase, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [17] 3.5.9 Silicon - Iron - The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it is difficult for the market to maintain a high level. The cost support still exists, the demand support is weakening, and the daily output is at a low level. The market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [19]

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 29 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货1月28日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 28 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃、纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、纯碱、玻璃行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货1月27日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1 - The price of domestic all-latex rubber increased to 15,500 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai 20 mixed rubber rose to 14,800 CNY/ton, up by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.273 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.3% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 850,000 tons, also up by 1.7%, with specific increases in Qingdao and decreases in Yunnan and Vietnam [4] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices [5] - Despite a projected moderate growth in demand for rubber products like tires by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5] - It is anticipated that the peak of the current rebound in prices will not exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a decrease in operating load by 1.5 percentage points to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6% [26] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain ample due to lower maintenance plans compared to previous years and increased operational plans from overseas factories [26] - The demand side is under pressure due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities, leading to a projected loosening of the PX supply-demand balance in the first quarter [26] Group 4 - The PTA industry load decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 76.3%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expectations of reduced supply due to maintenance plans [27] - The overall demand environment is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [27] - The current TA-polyester segment fundamentals still have support, but the sustainability of this support will be tested by expectations of reduced polyester production [27] Group 5 - The EG industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.4%, with the synthetic gas production load rising to 80.2%, indicating high levels compared to historical data [29] - Despite high domestic supply, the demand side is weak, with expectations of inventory accumulation in January and potential peak inventory pressure in February [29] - The macro environment shows signs of warming, but supply pressure remains the dominant factor in the industry [29] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 68.4%, with expectations of continued supply contraction due to maintenance plans [32] - The demand side is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [32] - Recent tightening of spot supply and rapid expansion of processing fees indicate a strong basis for PR prices [32] Group 7 - The soda ash market saw a slight decline in futures prices, with a recent increase in production leading to increased supply pressure [33] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with recent inventory reductions indicating a weakening purchasing sentiment [33] - The overall market sentiment remains mixed, with macroeconomic factors showing neutral influences [34]