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铁矿石到货、发运周度数据(2026 年第 5 周)-20260202
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 11:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic arrival volume at 47 ports has rebounded from a low level, with the increase mainly coming from Brazilian ore, while Australian and non - Australian - Brazilian ores have decreased. Overseas ore shipments have continued to rise, and the total global ore shipment volume has increased. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian ores at domestic ports is expected to rise, and overseas supply has started to stabilize [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Brief Review - The domestic arrival volume at 47 ports is 26.692 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 437,000 tons. The increase is mainly from Brazilian ore, which increased by 3.419 million tons week - on - week, while Australian and non - Australian - Brazilian ores decreased by 1.231 million tons and 1.761 million tons respectively. Overseas ore shipments have continued to rise, with the total global ore shipment volume at 30.946 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1626 million tons. Most of the shipments from major miners have continued to rise, and the shipments from the four major miners increased by 719,000 tons week - on - week. In terms of regions, Brazilian ore shipments increased by 1.4377 million tons, starting to rebound from a low level, while Australian and non - Australian - Brazilian ore shipments decreased slightly by 170,400 tons and 104,700 tons respectively. It is expected that the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian ores at domestic ports will rise according to the shipping schedule, and overseas supply has started to stabilize [2]. 3.2. Ore Arrival and Shipment Data Arrival Volume - Northern six ports: The arrival volume is 1.2888 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 507,000 tons (4.09%), a monthly increase of 507,000 tons (4.09%), and a year - on - year increase of 415,900 tons (47.65%) [3]. - National 45 ports: The arrival volume is 24.847 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 453,000 tons (-1.79%), a monthly decrease of 453,000 tons (-1.79%), and a year - on - year increase of 7.227 million tons (41.02%) [3]. - National 47 ports: The arrival volume is 26.692 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 437,000 tons (1.66%), a monthly increase of 437,000 tons (1.66%), and a year - on - year increase of 8.166 million tons (44.08%) [3]. - National 47 ports: Australian ore: The arrival volume is 14.521 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.231 million tons (-7.81%), a monthly decrease of 1.231 million tons (-7.81%), and a year - on - year increase of 3.337 million tons (29.84%) [3]. - National 47 ports: Brazilian ore: The arrival volume is 8.383 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.419 million tons (68.88%), a monthly increase of 3.419 million tons (68.88%), and a year - on - year increase of 3.584 million tons (74.68%) [3]. - National 47 ports: Other ores: The arrival volume is 3.788 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.751 million tons (-31.61%), a monthly decrease of 1.751 million tons (-31.61%), and a year - on - year increase of 1.245 million tons (48.96%) [3]. Shipment Volume - Australian shipments (original caliber): The shipment volume is 16.159 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 378,000 tons (-2.29%), a monthly decrease of 378,000 tons (-2.29%), and a year - on - year decrease of 2.308 million tons (-12.50%) [3]. - Shipments to China: The shipment volume is 14.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 254,000 tons (1.80%), a monthly increase of 254,000 tons (1.80%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.443 million tons (-9.11%) [3]. - Brazilian shipments (original caliber): The shipment volume is 6.177 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.325 million tons (27.31%), a monthly increase of 1.325 million tons (27.31%), and a year - on - year decrease of 395,000 tons (-6.01%) [3]. - Global shipment volume: The shipment volume is 30.946 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1626 million tons (3.90%), a monthly increase of 1.1626 million tons (3.90%), and a year - on - year decrease of 3.5268 million tons (-10.23%) [3]. - Australian shipments: The shipment volume is 18.204 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 170,400 tons (-0.93%), a monthly decrease of 170,400 tons (-0.93%), and a year - on - year decrease of 170,400 tons (-0.93%) [3]. - Brazilian shipments: The shipment volume is 7.006 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.4377 million tons (25.82%), a monthly increase of 1.4377 million tons (25.82%), and a year - on - year increase of 1.4377 million tons (25.82%) [3]. - Other shipments: The shipment volume is 5.736 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104,700 tons (-1.79%), a monthly decrease of 104,700 tons (-1.79%), and a year - on - year decrease of 104,700 tons (-1.79%) [3]. - VALE: The shipment volume is 5.102 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3335 million tons (35.38%), a monthly increase of 1.3335 million tons (35.38%), and a year - on - year increase of 368,100 tons (7.78%) [3]. - RIO: The shipment volume is 5.854 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 164,200 tons (2.89%), a monthly increase of 164,200 tons (2.89%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.1177 million tons (-16.03%) [3]. - RIO shipments to China: The shipment volume is 5.095 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 273,000 tons (5.66%), a monthly increase of 273,000 tons (5.66%), and a year - on - year decrease of 1.051 million tons (-17.10%) [3]. - BHP: The shipment volume is 5.893 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 66,200 tons (1.14%), a monthly increase of 66,200 tons (1.14%), and a year - on - year decrease of 726,600 tons (-10.98%) [3]. - BHP shipments to China: The shipment volume is 5.558 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 750,000 tons (15.60%), a monthly increase of 750,000 tons (15.60%), and a year - on - year decrease of 290,000 tons (-4.96%) [3]. - FMG: The shipment volume is 3.463 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 844,800 tons (-19.61%), a monthly decrease of 844,800 tons (-19.61%), and a year - on - year decrease of 619,500 tons (-15.17%) [3]. - FMG shipments to China: The shipment volume is 2.799 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.334 million tons (-32.28%), a monthly decrease of 1.334 million tons (-32.28%), and a year - on - year decrease of 406,000 tons (-12.67%) [3]. 3.3. Related Charts - The report includes charts on domestic port arrival volume, global iron ore shipment volume, shipments of the four major miners, and estimated domestic arrival volume of iron ore [4][7][9][11].
铁矿石期货周报:铁水韧性维持 盘面宽幅震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-09 02:04
Supply - Global shipments increased by 242.3 million tons to 34.31 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil contributing a total of 28.688 million tons, an increase of 788,000 tons [1] - Australian shipments totaled 19.205 million tons, a decrease of 927,000 tons, with shipments to China at 14.998 million tons, down by 2.814 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments reached 9.483 million tons, an increase of 1.715 million tons, while the total port arrival volume was 25.365 million tons, up by 3.852 million tons [1] Demand - Daily pig iron production averaged 2.418 million tons, a slight decrease of 110,000 tons; blast furnace operating rate was 83.56%, down by 0.31% [1] - Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.65%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points; steel mill profit margin remained stable at 58.87% [1] Inventory - As of May 22, total inventory at 45 ports was 139.8783 million tons, a decrease of 1.7826 million tons; the decline in inventory was mainly due to a drop in port arrival volume [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 3.568 million tons to 89.2548 million tons, with daily consumption slightly down and steel mill inventory remaining stable [1] Market Outlook - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant increase this week, with Brazilian ports resuming operations and non-mainstream shipments recovering from low levels, leading to a gradual increase in arrival volumes [2] - On the demand side, pig iron production remained stable compared to last week, and steel mill profit margins are at historically high levels [2] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but the pace has slowed compared to last week; overall, iron ore continues to maintain a destocking pattern [2] - Future outlook indicates potential risks of weakening demand in the off-season, but some resilience remains; average pig iron production is expected to stay around 2.4 million tons in June [2] - Supply pressure from overseas mines is expected to increase, with a peak in arrivals gradually becoming evident [2] - Short-term iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 700-745 [2][3][4]