铁矿石供应

Search documents
铁矿石期货周报:铁水韧性维持 盘面宽幅震荡
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-09 02:04
Supply - Global shipments increased by 242.3 million tons to 34.31 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil contributing a total of 28.688 million tons, an increase of 788,000 tons [1] - Australian shipments totaled 19.205 million tons, a decrease of 927,000 tons, with shipments to China at 14.998 million tons, down by 2.814 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments reached 9.483 million tons, an increase of 1.715 million tons, while the total port arrival volume was 25.365 million tons, up by 3.852 million tons [1] Demand - Daily pig iron production averaged 2.418 million tons, a slight decrease of 110,000 tons; blast furnace operating rate was 83.56%, down by 0.31% [1] - Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.65%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points; steel mill profit margin remained stable at 58.87% [1] Inventory - As of May 22, total inventory at 45 ports was 139.8783 million tons, a decrease of 1.7826 million tons; the decline in inventory was mainly due to a drop in port arrival volume [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 3.568 million tons to 89.2548 million tons, with daily consumption slightly down and steel mill inventory remaining stable [1] Market Outlook - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant increase this week, with Brazilian ports resuming operations and non-mainstream shipments recovering from low levels, leading to a gradual increase in arrival volumes [2] - On the demand side, pig iron production remained stable compared to last week, and steel mill profit margins are at historically high levels [2] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but the pace has slowed compared to last week; overall, iron ore continues to maintain a destocking pattern [2] - Future outlook indicates potential risks of weakening demand in the off-season, but some resilience remains; average pig iron production is expected to stay around 2.4 million tons in June [2] - Supply pressure from overseas mines is expected to increase, with a peak in arrivals gradually becoming evident [2] - Short-term iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 700-745 [2][3][4]