期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 5 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2669.20 万吨，环比增 43.70 万吨，低位有所回升；增量主要源于巴西矿，环 比增 341.90 万吨，澳矿、非澳巴矿环比分别减 123.10、176.10 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运持续回升，全球矿石发运总量为 3094.60 万吨，环比增 116.26 万吨，其中主流矿商 发运多数延续回升，四大矿商发运环比增 71.90 万吨；细分地区看巴西矿环比增 143.77 万吨，低位开始回 升；澳矿、非澳巴矿发运则是分别微降 17.04 万吨、10.47 万吨。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将回升，海外供应开始企稳，关注后续变化。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 | 上 ...

Supply - Global shipments increased by 242.3 million tons to 34.31 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil contributing a total of 28.688 million tons, an increase of 788,000 tons [1] - Australian shipments totaled 19.205 million tons, a decrease of 927,000 tons, with shipments to China at 14.998 million tons, down by 2.814 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments reached 9.483 million tons, an increase of 1.715 million tons, while the total port arrival volume was 25.365 million tons, up by 3.852 million tons [1] Demand - Daily pig iron production averaged 2.418 million tons, a slight decrease of 110,000 tons; blast furnace operating rate was 83.56%, down by 0.31% [1] - Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.65%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points; steel mill profit margin remained stable at 58.87% [1] Inventory - As of May 22, total inventory at 45 ports was 139.8783 million tons, a decrease of 1.7826 million tons; the decline in inventory was mainly due to a drop in port arrival volume [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 3.568 million tons to 89.2548 million tons, with daily consumption slightly down and steel mill inventory remaining stable [1] Market Outlook - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant increase this week, with Brazilian ports resuming operations and non-mainstream shipments recovering from low levels, leading to a gradual increase in arrival volumes [2] - On the demand side, pig iron production remained stable compared to last week, and steel mill profit margins are at historically high levels [2] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but the pace has slowed compared to last week; overall, iron ore continues to maintain a destocking pattern [2] - Future outlook indicates potential risks of weakening demand in the off-season, but some resilience remains; average pig iron production is expected to stay around 2.4 million tons in June [2] - Supply pressure from overseas mines is expected to increase, with a peak in arrivals gradually becoming evident [2] - Short-term iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 700-745 [2][3][4]