联系方式：010-85356618 下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 15858.66 315.06 8860.19 280.04 2646.7 37.1 226.58 78.32 84.94 37.23 14.50 上期 15512.63 313.45 8723.95 280.56 2723.4 37.71 226.55 78.47 84.93 35.93 16.50 周变动 346.03 1.61 136.24 -0.52 -76.70 -0.61 0.03 -0.15 0.01 1.3 -2.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 12006.4 2144.66 351.56 1356.04 本期 10367.61 5669.56 6941.26 上期 11799.57 2068.47 320.64 1323.95 上期 10097.66 5795.06 6672.61 周变动 206.83 76.19 30.92 32.09 周变动 269.95 -125.5 268 ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 宏观落地，消息纷扰 铁矿石周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/12/13 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 库存 06 基差 01 周度评估及策略推荐 黑色产业链示意图 周度要点小结 估值驱动 | 铁矿石基本面评估 | 估值 驱动 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 周发运量 | 进口利润 | 高低品价差 | 钢厂盈利率 | 铁水产量 | 47港库存 | | 数据 | 澳洲发运量1967.4 61.03元/吨 万吨，巴西发运量 | -13.33元/湿吨 | PB-超特粉价差111元 /吨 ;卡粉-PB粉价差 | 35.93% | 229.2万吨 | 16111.47万吨 | | | 687.9万吨 | | 83元/吨 | | | | | 多空评分 | 0 -0.5 | 0 | 0 | -0 ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 15431.42 319.19 8834.2 283.27 2480.5 37.99 229.2 78.63 85.92 35.93 24.00 上期 15300.81 318.45 8984.73 285.07 2699.3 38.02 232.3 80.16 87.08 36.36 -1.50 周变动 130.61 0.74 -150.53 -1.80 -218.80 -0.03 -3.10 -1.53 -1.16 -0.43 25.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 11763.4 2057.33 296.47 1314.22 本期 10024.62 5807.04 6667.43 上期 11707.87 2036.49 290.54 1265.91 上期 10014.85 5834.53 6530.67 周变动 55.53 20.84 5.93 48.31 周变动 9.77 -27.49 136.76 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the steel market, during the consumption off - season, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, with large inventory pressure, but the market is more focused on policy expectations. For the iron ore market, the decline in iron - water production and slow inventory reduction in the steel market suppress prices, while policy factors provide support [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, threaded rod production decreased, hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of five major steel products increased. Overall inventory continued to decline, but hot - rolled coil inventory was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profit margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills' production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback cycle. Recently, coal and coke prices have shown a weakening trend, weakening the cost support for steel [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures price fluctuated upward at a low level, reaching a one - month high, and there is a possibility of an upward breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the trend of the 05 contract [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase after rising or falling prices, and patiently wait for a full adjustment before going long [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the iron - water production of sample steel mills decreased significantly, while the production of five major steel products increased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron - water production is expected to continue to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday restocking demand will come later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from a high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also affects market sentiment. However, policies support the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract's futures price has broken through the suppression of the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands, but it still remains in a wide - range high - level oscillation [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to pull back before entering the market for medium - term long - positions [4] 3.3 Industry News - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2139 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 822,000 tons, a slight rebound. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter [6] - As of December 2nd, 2025, two steel mills announced winter storage policies, with one in Northeast China and one in North China. Two new steel mills were added today, with fixed - price locked - in goods, no price increase in case of market rise, price decrease in case of market fall, and the option to set the price at any time. The price is guaranteed until March 31st, 2026 [6] - According to Longzhong Information, the 600 - ton production line of Benxi Fuyao Float Glass Co., Ltd. was ignited on November 29th. As of December 1st, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased by 2.4% month - on - month to 10.1 days, a year - on - year decrease of 17.9% [6]

逢高试空 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 库存再次回升，上方价格压力明确 投资观点： 震荡偏弱 报告日期 2025—11-28 专题报告 ⚫ 供给（中性）：近期发运到港基本符合预期，供给端较为稳定。 ⚫ 投资建议 ⚫ 风险提示 资料来源：钢联数据、国贸期货研究院 从业资格号：F0286636 投资咨询号：Z0010820 分析师：薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询号：Z0022680 农产品指数与油脂期货价格走势 铁矿现货成交 ma5 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 2022 2023 2024 2025 重点关注国内外宏观政策和产业政策的变动，以及产业链的突发事 件。 | 铁矿石（I） | | --- | 分析师：张宝慧 ⚫ 需求（中性）：本期钢厂铁水产量小幅下滑至 234.68 万吨（- 1.6），主要南方地区部分钢厂亏损加剧叠加需求走若导致钢厂检 修。钢厂盈利比例延续下滑，环比下滑 2.6%至 35.06%。根据检修计 划预计铁水仍将小幅下滑。 ⚫ 库存（偏弱）：本期 47 港日均疏港量上涨 1.67 万吨至 345.06 万吨 的高位，压港船舶下滑下，港 ...

Group 1: Report Core Data - Total port inventory this week was 15054.65, a decrease of 75.06 from last week [1] - The daily average port clearance volume this week was 329.92, an increase of 2.97 from last week [1] - The imported ore inventory of steel mills this week was 9001.23, a decrease of 74.78 from last week [1] - The daily consumption of imported ore by steel mills this week was 291.68, a decrease of 0.95 from last week [1] - The arrival volume this week was 2268.9, a decrease of 472.30 from last week [1] - The output of domestic iron ore concentrate this week was 40.28, an increase of 0.16 from last week [1] - The daily average pig iron output this week was 236.28, a decrease of 0.60 from last week [1] - The steel mill start - up rate this week was 82.19, a decrease of 0.62 from last week [1] - The capacity utilization rate this week was 88.58, a decrease of 0.22 from last week [1] - The steel mill profitability rate this week was 37.66, a decrease of 1.3 from last week [1] - The inventory of coarse powder this week was 11550.01, a decrease of 50.74 from last week [1] - The inventory of lump ore this week was 1963.04, a decrease of 33.13 from last week [1] - The inventory of pellets this week was 293.17, a decrease of 11.62 from last week [1] - The inventory of iron concentrate this week was 1248.43, an increase of 20.43 from last week [1] - The inventory of trade ore this week was 9765.58, a decrease of 74.84 from last week [1] - The inventory of Brazilian ore this week was 6007.01, an increase of 44.33 from last week [1] - The inventory of Australian ore this week was 6226.24, a decrease of 100.28 from last week [1] Group 2: Data Sources and Notes - Data is sourced from Wind, Steel Union data, and compiled by Guantong Research [1] - Port data uses Mysteel's 45 - port data; steel mill data uses Mysteel's 247 - steel mill data; the daily average output of 126 iron concentrate mines is bi - weekly published data [1] - Red shading indicates newly updated data on the day, and gray shading indicates non - updated data on the day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The ore inventory at the 15 ports monitored by SteelHome continued to accumulate, with a week-on-week increase of 404,650 tons and an expanding growth rate [1] - The inventory of mainstream varieties showed mixed changes. The inventory of Brazilian fines and medium-grade Australian fines increased by 47,020 tons and 17,710 tons week-on-week respectively, while the inventory of high-grade Australian fines and Australian lumps decreased by 23,510 tons and 38,140 tons respectively, and the pellet inventory was further reduced [1] - In general, the iron ore port inventory increased significantly, the industrial contradictions continued to accumulate, and there were no structural contradictions [1] Summary by Category Inventory Totals - The current inventory total is 11,826,850 tons, a week-on-week increase of 404,650 tons (3.54%), a month-on-month increase of 579,070 tons (5.15%), and a year-on-year decrease of 737,600 tons (-5.87%) [1] High-Grade Australian Fines - The current inventory is 1,594,850 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 23,510 tons (-1.45%), a month-on-month decrease of 58,830 tons (-3.56%), and a year-on-year decrease of 708,080 tons (-30.75%) [1] Brazilian Fines - The current inventory is 2,113,330 tons, a week-on-week increase of 41,020 tons (1.98%), a month-on-month increase of 47,590 tons (2.30%), and a year-on-year increase of 502,740 tons (31.21%) [1] Medium-Grade Australian Fines - The current inventory is 732,010 tons, a week-on-week increase of 17,710 tons (2.48%), a month-on-month increase of 131,840 tons (21.97%), and a year-on-year increase of 61,230 tons (9.13%) [1] Australian Lumps - The current inventory is 965,750 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 38,140 tons (-3.80%), a month-on-month increase of 2,530 tons (0.26%), and a year-on-year increase of 112,110 tons (13.13%) [1] Pellets - The current inventory is 31,760 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,970 tons (-13.53%), a month-on-month increase of 5,690 tons (21.83%), and a year-on-year decrease of 70,880 tons (-69.06%) [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The report presents the weekly changes in iron ore inventory - related data, including port inventory, steel mill inventory, consumption, production, and other aspects, providing a detailed overview of the current situation of the iron ore market [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: The current period's port total inventory is 14,898.83, an increase of 356.35 from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory**: The current steel mill imported ore inventory is 9,009.94, an increase of 160.08 from the previous period [1] - **Inventory by Type**: For different types of iron ore in port inventory, such as coarse powder, lump ore, pellet, and concentrate powder, there are varying degrees of increase compared to the previous period. For example, coarse powder increased by 219.66, lump ore by 77.31, pellet by 28.87, and concentrate powder by 30.51 [1] - **Trade Ore, Brazilian Ore, and Australian Ore in Port**: The current trade ore in port is 9,592.29, an increase of 282.08; Brazilian ore is 5,874.31, an increase of 130.44; Australian ore is 6,170.69, an increase of 153.29 compared to the previous period [1] Supply - Demand Data - **Daily Average Port Ore Removal Volume**: The current daily average port ore removal volume is 320.93, an increase of 0.77 from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: The current steel mill imported ore daily consumption is 288.7, a decrease of 2.92 from the previous period [1] - **Arrival Volume**: The current arrival volume is 3,218.4, an increase of 1,189.30 from the previous period [1] - **Domestic Iron Concentrate Powder Production**: The current 126 - mine iron concentrate powder production is 39.88, a decrease of 0.45 from the previous period [1] - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: The current daily average hot metal production is 234.22, a decrease of 2.14 from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: The current steel mill operating rate is 83.13%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points from the previous period [1] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The current capacity utilization rate is 87.81%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Profit Rate**: The current steel mill profit rate is 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19 percentage points from the previous period [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore inventory at the 15 ports monitored by Steel Union has been continuously rising, with a week-on-week increase of 174,420 tons and an expanding growth rate [1]. - The inventory increase is mainly in mainstream varieties. Among them, the medium-grade Australian powder and Australian lump increased by 114,130 tons and 40,670 tons respectively, and the pellet ore increased by 10,660 tons, while the high-grade Australian powder decreased by 35,320 tons [1]. - In general, the iron ore port inventory continues to rise and the growth rate expands, indicating that industrial contradictions are accumulating and there are no structural contradictions [1]. Summary by Category Inventory Quantity and Change - **Total Inventory**: The current inventory is 11,422,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 174,420 tons (1.55%), and a month-on-month decrease of 1,339,850 tons (-10.50%) [1]. - **High-grade Australian Powder**: The current inventory is 1,618,360 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 35,320 tons (-2.14%), and a year-on-year decrease of 719,490 tons (-30.78%) [1]. - **Brazilian Powder Ore**: The current inventory is 2,072,310 tons, a week-on-week increase of 6,570 tons (0.32%), and a year-on-year increase of 518,240 tons (33.35%) [1]. - **Medium-grade Australian Powder**: The current inventory is 714,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 114,130 tons (19.02%), and a month-on-month decrease of 46,600 tons (-6.12%) [1]. - **Australian Lump**: The current inventory is 1,003,890 tons, a week-on-week increase of 40,670 tons (4.22%), and a year-on-year increase of 109,850 tons (12.29%) [1]. - **Pellet Ore**: The current inventory is 36,730 tons, a week-on-week increase of 10,660 tons (40.89%), and a year-on-year decrease of 76,810 tons (-67.65%) [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report No core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides weekly data on iron ore inventory and related supply - demand indicators. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory Data - The current total port inventory is 14,542.48, an increase of 118.89 from the previous week [1]. - The current daily average port clearance volume is 320.16, an increase of 7.51 from the previous week [1]. - The current inventory of imported ore in steel mills is 8,849.86, a decrease of 229.33 from the previous week [1]. - The current daily consumption of imported ore in steel mills is 291.62, a decrease of 4.84 from the previous week [1]. Supply - Demand Data - The current arrival volume is 2,029.1, a decrease of 490.30 from the previous week [1]. - The current output of domestic iron ore concentrate is 40.33, an increase of 0.30 from the previous week [1]. - The current daily average pig iron output is 236.36, a decrease of 3.54 from the previous week [1]. - The current steel mill operating rate is 81.75, a decrease of 2.96 from the previous week [1]. - The current capacity utilization rate is 88.61, a decrease of 1.33 from the previous week [1]. - The current steel mill profitability rate is 45.02, a decrease of 2.6 from the previous week [1]. Port Inventory Variety Structure - The current volume of coarse powder is 11,239.43, an increase of 144.47 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of lump ore is 1,862.3, a decrease of 61.27 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of pellets is 286.92, an increase of 14.75 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of iron concentrate is 1,153.83, an increase of 20.94 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of trade ore is 9,310.21, an increase of 69.59 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of Brazilian ore is 5,743.87, a decrease of 27.56 from the previous week [1]. - The current volume of Australian ore is 6,017.4, an increase of 82.4 from the previous week [1].