下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 17140.71 341.08 10316.64 282.24 2484.7 38.81 228.58 79.53 85.69 39.39 3.50 上期 17022.26 332.31 9968.59 280.96 2530 39.87 227.98 79 85.47 39.39 1.50 周变动 118.45 8.77 348.05 1.28 -45.30 -1.06 0.60 0.53 0.22 0 2.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 13023.75 2100.22 398.21 1618.53 本期 11316.72 5536.43 7903.27 上期 12891.68 2162.11 409.31 1559.16 上期 11245.25 5583.97 7799.19 周变动 132.07 -61.89 -11.1 59.37 周变动 71.47 -47.54 104.08 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料 我公司对这些信 ...

供需宽松，盘面震荡整理 铁矿石周报 20260203 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 交易逻辑：供需宽松，盘面震荡整理 供应：外矿方面，1月26日-2月1日，全球铁矿石发运总量3094.6万吨，环比增加116.2万吨；澳洲发运量1820.4万吨，环比减 少17万吨；巴西发运量692.2万吨，环比增加147.4万吨，非主流矿发运量1063.4万吨，环比增加44.5万吨。中国45港到港总量 2484.7万吨，环比减少45.3万吨。内矿方面，截至1月30日，全国186家矿山铁精粉日均产量46.87万吨，环比降0.08万吨，产能 利用率59.98%，环比降0.11%；矿山精粉库存87.25万吨，环比降1.65万吨。 需求：1月30日当周，日均铁水产量227.98万吨，环比-0.12万吨。终端需求淡季，利润压缩叠加环保限产，钢厂提产意愿不足， 铁水产量持稳，补库支撑相对趋弱。 库存：本期进口矿库存持续回升，在港船舶数量减少12艘至106艘。本期压港明显下降，到港量小幅回落仍维持高位，疏港量 止跌回升，港口库存持续累积，对矿价上方空间有所压制， ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 17022.26 332.31 9968.59 280.96 2530 39.87 227.98 79 85.47 39.39 1.50 上期 16766.53 310.73 9388.82 281.9 2659.7 40.19 228.1 78.68 85.51 40.69 10.50 周变动 255.73 21.58 579.77 -0.94 -129.70 -0.32 -0.12 0.32 -0.04 -1.3 -9.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 12891.68 2162.11 409.31 1559.16 本期 11245.25 5583.97 7799.19 上期 12609.17 2204.9 406.14 1546.32 上期 11124.84 5628.71 7588.05 周变动 282.51 -42.79 3.17 12.84 周变动 120.41 -44.74 211.14 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: The current period's port total inventory is 15,858.66, showing an increase of 346.03 compared to the previous period [1] - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: The current daily average port clearance volume is 315.06, with a week - on - week increase of 1.61 [1] - **Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory**: The current inventory of imported ore in steel mills is 8,860.19, rising by 136.24 from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mills' Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: The current daily consumption of imported ore in steel mills is 280.04, a decrease of 0.52 compared to the previous period [1] - **Arrival Volume**: The current arrival volume is 2,646.7, showing a decrease of 76.70 from the previous period [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: The current production of domestic iron ore concentrate is 37.1, with a decrease of 0.61 compared to the previous period [1] - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: The current daily average hot metal production is 226.58, an increase of 0.03 from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mills' Starting Rate**: The current starting rate of steel mills is 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous period [1] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The current capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mills' Profit Rate**: The current profit rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a decrease of 2.00 percentage points from the previous period [1] Inventory by Ore Type - **Coarse Ore**: The current inventory of coarse ore is 12,006.4, showing an increase of 206.83 compared to the previous period [1] - **Lump Ore**: The current inventory of lump ore is 2,144.66, with an increase of 76.19 from the previous period [1] - **Pellets**: The current inventory of pellets is 351.56, an increase of 30.92 compared to the previous period [1] - **Concentrate**: The current inventory of concentrate is 1,356.04, rising by 32.09 from the previous period [1] - **Trading Ore**: The current inventory of trading ore is 10,367.61, an increase of 269.95 compared to the previous period [1] - **Brazilian Ore**: The current inventory of Brazilian ore is 5,669.56, a decrease of 125.5 from the previous period [1] - **Australian Ore**: The current inventory of Australian ore is 6,941.26, an increase of 268.65 compared to the previous period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall inventory of iron ore continues to rise, and there are no signs of effectively resolving the inventory structural contradictions, yet the spot still has some support. After the Fed's interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and with the implementation of export license management for some steel products starting from January 1st next year, it is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the support level of 750 yuan/ton for the weighted contract. [11][13][14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipping volume was 33.686 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 454,000 tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 26.553 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.105 million tons. Australia's shipping volume was 19.674 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.47 million tons, with 15.882 million tons shipped to China, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.879 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.574 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.148 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. [13] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points. [13] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 161.1147 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2036 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3417 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons. [13] - **Summary**: Overseas iron ore shipping volume increased slightly. Australia's shipping volume rebounded, mainly due to the rebound of Rio Tinto and FMG's shipping volume, while Brazil's shipping volume decreased. The shipping volume from non - mainstream countries reached a new high this year, and the near - end arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.3 million tons. Some blast furnace overhauls were affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rest were mainly annual inspections with relatively long shutdown times. The steel mill profitability rate declined slightly. Port inventory continued to increase, and steel mill inventory was at a low level in the same period. It is estimated that the iron ore price will fluctuate weakly. [13][14] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 111 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 83 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 138 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 0.5 yuan/ton. [19][22] - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: The pellet feeding ratio was 14.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 73.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,135 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Zhangjiagang was 2,060 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton. [25] - **Profit**: The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.43 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 13.33 yuan/wet ton. [28] - **Freight**: No specific analysis of freight changes is provided in the text, only relevant charts are presented. [30] 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 154.3142 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3061 million tons. The pellet inventory was 296,470 tons, a week - on - week increase of 59,300 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1.31422 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 483,100 tons. The lump ore inventory was 2.05733 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,400 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 66.6743 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.3676 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 58.0704 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 274,900 tons. [35][38][41] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.8342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 150,530 tons. [45] 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipping**: The shipping volume from Australia to China at 19 ports was 15.063 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 tons. Brazil's shipping volume was 6.752 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.542 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipping volume to China was 6.284 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.705 million tons. BHP's shipping volume to China was 3.896 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.822 million tons. Vale's shipping volume was 4.781 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.681 million tons. FMG's shipping volume to China was 3.621 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,000 tons. [50][53][56] - **Arrival and Import**: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 24.805 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.188 million tons. In October, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 19.8492 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2656 million tons. [59] - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 58.08%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 45,380 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10 tons. [65] 3.5 Demand Side - **Pig Iron Output and Capacity Utilization**: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.292 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31,000 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.16 percentage points. [70] - **Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1919 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 74,000 tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8327 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons. [73] 3.6 Basis As of December 12th, the calculated iron ore BRBF basis was 61.03 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 7.43%. [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - No clear core view presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: The current period's port total inventory is 15,431.42, a weekly increase of 130.61 compared to the previous period of 15,300.81 [1] - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: The current daily average port clearance volume is 319.19, with a weekly increase of 0.74 from the previous 318.45 [1] - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory**: Steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,834.2 in the current period, a weekly decrease of 150.53 from 8,984.73 in the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: The current daily consumption of imported ore by steel mills is 283.27, a weekly decrease of 1.80 from 285.07 in the previous period [1] - **Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume is 2,480.5 in the current period, a weekly decrease of 218.80 from 2,699.3 in the previous period [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: The production of domestic iron ore concentrate is 37.99 in the current period, a weekly decrease of 0.03 from 38.02 in the previous period [1] - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: The daily average hot metal production is 229.2 in the current period, a weekly decrease of 3.10 from 232.3 in the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Operating Rate**: The steel mill operating rate is 78.63% in the current period, a weekly decrease of 1.53 percentage points from 80.16% in the previous period [1] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The capacity utilization rate is 85.92% in the current period, a weekly decrease of 1.16 percentage points from 87.08% in the previous period [1] - **Steel Mill Profitability Rate**: The steel mill profitability rate is 35.93% in the current period, a weekly increase of 0.43 percentage points from 36.36% in the previous period [1] Port Inventory Variety Structure - **Coarse Powder**: The current inventory of coarse powder is 11,763.4, a weekly increase of 55.53 from 11,707.87 in the previous period [1] - **Lump Ore**: The current inventory of lump ore is 2,057.33, a weekly increase of 20.84 from 2,036.49 in the previous period [1] - **Pellets**: The current inventory of pellets is 296.47, a weekly increase of 5.93 from 290.54 in the previous period [1] - **Iron Concentrate**: The current inventory of iron concentrate is 1,314.22, a weekly increase of 48.31 from 1,265.91 in the previous period [1] - **Trading Ore**: The current inventory of trading ore is 10,024.62, a weekly increase of 9.77 from 10,014.85 in the previous period [1] - **Brazilian Ore**: The current inventory of Brazilian ore is 5,807.04, a weekly decrease of 27.49 from 5,834.53 in the previous period [1] - **Australian Ore**: The current inventory of Australian ore is 6,667.43, a weekly increase of 136.76 from 6,530.67 in the previous period [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the steel market, during the consumption off - season, there is a situation of weak supply and demand, with large inventory pressure, but the market is more focused on policy expectations. For the iron ore market, the decline in iron - water production and slow inventory reduction in the steel market suppress prices, while policy factors provide support [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, threaded rod production decreased, hot - rolled coil production increased, and the production of five major steel products increased. Overall inventory continued to decline, but hot - rolled coil inventory was significantly higher than the same period in previous years, with greater inventory pressure. This week, the apparent demand declined moderately. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profit margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills' production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback cycle. Recently, coal and coke prices have shown a weakening trend, weakening the cost support for steel [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures price fluctuated upward at a low level, reaching a one - month high, and there is a possibility of an upward breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the trend of the 05 contract [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase after rising or falling prices, and patiently wait for a full adjustment before going long [2] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand**: Last week, the iron - water production of sample steel mills decreased significantly, while the production of five major steel products increased. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron - water production is expected to continue to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, the pre - holiday restocking demand will come later than usual [4] - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments have rebounded from a high, and it is expected that the arrival volume will increase after some time. The continuous increase in port inventory suppresses the futures price, and the slow inventory reduction of steel also affects market sentiment. However, policies support the futures price [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract's futures price has broken through the suppression of the middle - track of the Bollinger Bands, but it still remains in a wide - range high - level oscillation [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and patiently wait for the price to pull back before entering the market for medium - term long - positions [4] 3.3 Industry News - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.2139 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 822,000 tons, a slight rebound. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter [6] - As of December 2nd, 2025, two steel mills announced winter storage policies, with one in Northeast China and one in North China. Two new steel mills were added today, with fixed - price locked - in goods, no price increase in case of market rise, price decrease in case of market fall, and the option to set the price at any time. The price is guaranteed until March 31st, 2026 [6] - According to Longzhong Information, the 600 - ton production line of Benxi Fuyao Float Glass Co., Ltd. was ignited on November 29th. As of December 1st, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased by 2.4% month - on - month to 10.1 days, a year - on - year decrease of 17.9% [6]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking short - selling positions when the price rises. Iron ore is facing clear upward price pressure due to rising inventories. The market is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the inventory is likely to continue to accumulate in the medium - term [1][2][19] Group 3: Supply - Recently, the shipment to the port has basically met expectations, and the supply side is relatively stable [1] Group 4: Demand - The current steel mill's hot metal production has slightly decreased to 234.68 tons (-1.6), mainly because some steel mills in the southern region have increased losses and weakening demand, leading to mill maintenance. The profit - making ratio of steel mills has continued to decline, dropping 2.6% to 35.06% month - on - month. According to the maintenance plan, the hot metal production is expected to decline slightly [6][7] Group 5: Inventory - The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased by 1.67 tons to a high of 345.06 tons. With the decrease in berthed ships, the port inventory has increased by 166.37 tons, exceeding the level of the same period last year [6][7] Group 6: Market Sentiment - This week, the Wenhua Index has been running strongly, but the Black Chain Index is still running weakly after approaching the lower limit of the range. Among them, iron - related products such as iron ore, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are strong, while products such as coking coal and coke are weak. Iron ore lacks its own driving force to break through the upper limit of the range, so it is still recommended to take short - selling positions when the price rises [6][19] Group 7: Steel Production and Inventory - This week, the output of the five major steel products has slightly rebounded, with the increase mainly coming from coil products. Rebar continues its rhythm of low output, low apparent demand, and slight inventory reduction. The pressure on hot - rolled coils is gradually emerging. Although the total inventory of hot - rolled coils is still decreasing, the rate of decline has weakened, and the overall inventory far exceeds the seasonal level. Specific data: rebar production is 206.08 (-1.88), total rebar inventory is 531.48 (-21.86), rebar apparent demand is 227.94 (-2.85); hot - rolled coil production is 319.01 (3), total hot - rolled coil inventory is 400.9 (-1.21), hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 320.22 (-4.2); the output of the five major steel products is 855.71 (5.8), the total inventory of the five major steel products is 1400.81 (-32.29), and the apparent demand of the five major steel products is 888 (-6.16) [9][10]

Group 1: Report Core Data - Total port inventory this week was 15054.65, a decrease of 75.06 from last week [1] - The daily average port clearance volume this week was 329.92, an increase of 2.97 from last week [1] - The imported ore inventory of steel mills this week was 9001.23, a decrease of 74.78 from last week [1] - The daily consumption of imported ore by steel mills this week was 291.68, a decrease of 0.95 from last week [1] - The arrival volume this week was 2268.9, a decrease of 472.30 from last week [1] - The output of domestic iron ore concentrate this week was 40.28, an increase of 0.16 from last week [1] - The daily average pig iron output this week was 236.28, a decrease of 0.60 from last week [1] - The steel mill start - up rate this week was 82.19, a decrease of 0.62 from last week [1] - The capacity utilization rate this week was 88.58, a decrease of 0.22 from last week [1] - The steel mill profitability rate this week was 37.66, a decrease of 1.3 from last week [1] - The inventory of coarse powder this week was 11550.01, a decrease of 50.74 from last week [1] - The inventory of lump ore this week was 1963.04, a decrease of 33.13 from last week [1] - The inventory of pellets this week was 293.17, a decrease of 11.62 from last week [1] - The inventory of iron concentrate this week was 1248.43, an increase of 20.43 from last week [1] - The inventory of trade ore this week was 9765.58, a decrease of 74.84 from last week [1] - The inventory of Brazilian ore this week was 6007.01, an increase of 44.33 from last week [1] - The inventory of Australian ore this week was 6226.24, a decrease of 100.28 from last week [1] Group 2: Data Sources and Notes - Data is sourced from Wind, Steel Union data, and compiled by Guantong Research [1] - Port data uses Mysteel's 45 - port data; steel mill data uses Mysteel's 247 - steel mill data; the daily average output of 126 iron concentrate mines is bi - weekly published data [1] - Red shading indicates newly updated data on the day, and gray shading indicates non - updated data on the day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The ore inventory at the 15 ports monitored by SteelHome continued to accumulate, with a week-on-week increase of 404,650 tons and an expanding growth rate [1] - The inventory of mainstream varieties showed mixed changes. The inventory of Brazilian fines and medium-grade Australian fines increased by 47,020 tons and 17,710 tons week-on-week respectively, while the inventory of high-grade Australian fines and Australian lumps decreased by 23,510 tons and 38,140 tons respectively, and the pellet inventory was further reduced [1] - In general, the iron ore port inventory increased significantly, the industrial contradictions continued to accumulate, and there were no structural contradictions [1] Summary by Category Inventory Totals - The current inventory total is 11,826,850 tons, a week-on-week increase of 404,650 tons (3.54%), a month-on-month increase of 579,070 tons (5.15%), and a year-on-year decrease of 737,600 tons (-5.87%) [1] High-Grade Australian Fines - The current inventory is 1,594,850 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 23,510 tons (-1.45%), a month-on-month decrease of 58,830 tons (-3.56%), and a year-on-year decrease of 708,080 tons (-30.75%) [1] Brazilian Fines - The current inventory is 2,113,330 tons, a week-on-week increase of 41,020 tons (1.98%), a month-on-month increase of 47,590 tons (2.30%), and a year-on-year increase of 502,740 tons (31.21%) [1] Medium-Grade Australian Fines - The current inventory is 732,010 tons, a week-on-week increase of 17,710 tons (2.48%), a month-on-month increase of 131,840 tons (21.97%), and a year-on-year increase of 61,230 tons (9.13%) [1] Australian Lumps - The current inventory is 965,750 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 38,140 tons (-3.80%), a month-on-month increase of 2,530 tons (0.26%), and a year-on-year increase of 112,110 tons (13.13%) [1] Pellets - The current inventory is 31,760 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 4,970 tons (-13.53%), a month-on-month increase of 5,690 tons (21.83%), and a year-on-year decrease of 70,880 tons (-69.06%) [1]