Supply - Global shipments increased by 242.3 million tons to 34.31 million tons this week, with Australia and Brazil contributing a total of 28.688 million tons, an increase of 788,000 tons [1] - Australian shipments totaled 19.205 million tons, a decrease of 927,000 tons, with shipments to China at 14.998 million tons, down by 2.814 million tons [1] - Brazilian shipments reached 9.483 million tons, an increase of 1.715 million tons, while the total port arrival volume was 25.365 million tons, up by 3.852 million tons [1] Demand - Daily pig iron production averaged 2.418 million tons, a slight decrease of 110,000 tons; blast furnace operating rate was 83.56%, down by 0.31% [1] - Blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.65%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points; steel mill profit margin remained stable at 58.87% [1] Inventory - As of May 22, total inventory at 45 ports was 139.8783 million tons, a decrease of 1.7826 million tons; the decline in inventory was mainly due to a drop in port arrival volume [1] - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 3.568 million tons to 89.2548 million tons, with daily consumption slightly down and steel mill inventory remaining stable [1] Market Outlook - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant increase this week, with Brazilian ports resuming operations and non-mainstream shipments recovering from low levels, leading to a gradual increase in arrival volumes [2] - On the demand side, pig iron production remained stable compared to last week, and steel mill profit margins are at historically high levels [2] - Inventory levels are decreasing, but the pace has slowed compared to last week; overall, iron ore continues to maintain a destocking pattern [2] - Future outlook indicates potential risks of weakening demand in the off-season, but some resilience remains; average pig iron production is expected to stay around 2.4 million tons in June [2] - Supply pressure from overseas mines is expected to increase, with a peak in arrivals gradually becoming evident [2] - Short-term iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range of 700-745 [2][3][4]

Price Trends - Import iron ore prices have decreased compared to the previous week, with 62% grade iron ore priced at $98.95 per ton, down 2.13% from May 16 [1] - Domestic iron ore prices have shown a slight increase, with 66% grade iron concentrate priced at 933 yuan per ton, up 0.97% from May 16 [1] - The average price for 62% grade iron ore from May 19 to May 23 was $99.85 per ton [1] Supply and Demand - Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports increased slightly, with a total of 23.44 million tons arriving from May 12 to May 18, up 637,000 tons week-on-week [3] - The total iron ore shipment globally was 33.48 million tons, an increase of 3.19 million tons week-on-week [3] - The average daily steel inventory in China decreased to 9.60 million tons, down 331,000 tons week-on-week [4] Inventory Levels - As of May 23, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 139.88 million tons, a decrease of 1.78 million tons [4] - The average daily throughput of iron ore was 3.27 million tons [4] - Australian iron ore inventory decreased to 59.93 million tons, down 974,000 tons [4] Shipping Costs - The shipping cost from Hedland, Australia to Qingdao, China was $8.53 per ton, an increase of $0.16 [4] - The shipping cost from Brazil to China was $18.93 per ton, up $0.12 [4] Production Data - In mid-May, key steel enterprises produced 21.99 million tons of steel, with an average daily production of 2.20 million tons, a decrease of 0.3% week-on-week [5] - The average daily production of pig iron was 2.39 million tons, down 0.4% week-on-week [5] - The average daily production of steel products increased by 1.0% week-on-week to 4.16 million tons [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential regulatory measures on crude steel production in the second half of the year, indicating a possible shift in industry dynamics [1] - It raises concerns about the demand for iron ore, suggesting that a "demand winter" may be approaching, which could impact pricing and supply chains [1] Group 1: Steel Production Regulation - There is an expectation that regulatory efforts to control crude steel production will intensify in the latter half of the year [1] - The focus on production control may lead to significant changes in the steel market landscape [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Demand - The article suggests that the iron ore market may face a downturn in demand, referred to as a "demand winter" [1] - This potential decline in demand could have broader implications for pricing and the overall health of the iron ore industry [1]