Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for iron ore is "Oscillating" [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In 2026, the total pressure on iron ore will become more obvious, but with major mines reducing product grades, mainstream resources may still face structural shortages. Without a strong negative demand resonance, the supply - side pressure alone is unlikely to drive the price down independently. The iron ore price is expected to be influenced by both total pressure and structural support, with the lower support likely to remain the same as in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate between $90 - $110 in 2026, with supply mismatches to be watched in the first half and overseas demand changes in the second half [4][77] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 2025 Review - In 2025, the black demand was not bad, with the growth rate of 247 - caliber hot metal and crude steel fitting output exceeding 2%. In the first half, due to concerns about the ebb of export demand, the whole industry chain actively reduced inventory, and the iron ore price fell with the port inventory. The Platts Index dropped from $109 at the beginning of the year to $95 at the end of June. After July - August, driven by policies and re - evaluation of actual demand, the price rebounded slightly in the second half. From September - October, affected by port inventory structure and negotiation progress, the inventory and price deviated. The overseas mines' shipments recovered rapidly in the second half, and the domestic port inventory increased by 10 million tons per month from November - December, suppressing the overall price [12] Iron Ore Supply - **2025 Supply**: The global seaborne iron ore supply increased by about 37 million tons in 2025. The shipment was low in the first half due to hurricane disruptions and rebounded rapidly in the middle of the year as major mines "reduced product grades to maintain quantity". The shipping - caliber global iron ore shipments from January - November increased by about 38 million tons, and the shipments to China increased by about 16 million tons [14] - **Regional Supply in 2025**: From January - November, Australia, Brazil, Iran/Oman, and West Africa increased by about 10 million tons, South Africa by about 2 million tons, India decreased by 8 million tons, and other countries such as Russia and Ukraine increased by 4 million tons. Major mines like Rio Tinto, Vale, and FMG reduced product grades. African iron ore in Sierra Leone increased more than expected, and the Onslow project in Australia reached its production capacity in the third quarter [15][24][25] - **Structural Issues in 2025**: Since 2025, structural inventory contradictions have reappeared. The decline in mainstream mine quality and the locking of Jimblebar inventory explain the deviation between high port inventory and firm spot prices since the second half of 2025 [31] - **2026 Supply Forecast**: The global iron ore supply is expected to increase by 51 million tons in 2026. Simandou may contribute an increment of 20 million tons, Onslow will continue to increase production by 10 million tons, Australia is expected to recover and grow by about 10 - 15 million tons, and India's net export volume is expected to continue to decrease by 9 million tons [41] 2026 Crude Steel Demand - In 2026, the crude steel demand is expected to be low in the first half and high in the second half, with strong resilience but lack of increment. After the export resilience in 2025, the market's demand expectation for 2026 turns cautious, with the mainstream expectation around zero growth. Real estate demand is expected to shrink by 10%, infrastructure demand may increase slightly, direct exports may decline slightly, but indirect exports from the manufacturing industry will offset the decline. External demand may improve moderately under the background of interest rate cuts [3][65] Summary and Outlook - The market's expectation for domestic demand in 2026 turns cautious after the export resilience in 2025. The iron ore supply will increase significantly in 2026, about 51 million tons in total, with about 30 million tons having a high probability of realization. Although there is total pressure on the supply side, mainstream resources may still face structural shortages. The iron ore price is expected to be influenced by both total pressure and structural support, with the lower support likely to remain the same as in 2025. The price is expected to fluctuate between $90 - $110 in 2026 [77]