1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the past month, the demand for iron ore fluctuated at a high level but gradually weakened. At the end of the month, environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were tightened, leading to a decline in molten iron production. Steel mills became more cautious in raw material procurement, actively reducing their imported ore inventories with weak restocking intentions. As the supply - demand situation eased, the demand side's driving force for ore prices significantly weakened [3][10][34]. - The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou is planned for November this year. Its production is expected to increase significantly in 2026 and enter a rapid growth phase from 2027 - 2028, which requires close attention. In October, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The arrival volume in China increased significantly. Considering the year - end rush expectation, the shipping rhythm of major mines is likely to remain active, and the arrival volume may continue to stay high [3][14][35]. - In the next month, the market focus will shift to the fundamentals. On the macro side, recent policy benefits have been intensively introduced, releasing positive sentiment. Fundamentally, iron ore demand is declining marginally, and the expectation of steel mill production cuts is strengthening, so molten iron production will continue to fall. On the supply side, overseas shipments and arrivals are expected to be stable, and port inventories may continue to accumulate. With weakening supply - demand, the iron ore price is expected to show a volatile and pressured trend, with a focus range of 700 - 810 yuan/ton [3][35]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In October, iron ore futures fluctuated widely at a high level, first falling and then rising, and the price weakened at a high level in November. At the beginning of last month, due to the National Day holiday, concerns about weak terminal demand increased, and the ore price declined under pressure. The main contract dropped to around 760 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, driven by macro - level benefits, the market sentiment gradually recovered. The iron ore price rebounded after reaching the bottom. The global shipment volume remained high last month, port inventories continued to accumulate, and the demand side weakened marginally. The daily average molten iron production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply - demand pattern shifted from tight balance to loose [8]. - The spot price adjusted oscillatingly. As of early November, the 62% Platts Index decreased by 1.2% month - on - month to $104.6/ton, and the PB powder spot price dropped by 2 yuan to 782 yuan/wet ton. The spread between high - and low - grade ores stopped falling and rebounded. The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder increased from around 70 yuan/ton to around 95 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 contract spread oscillated last month, fluctuating narrowly in the range of 20 - 25 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Demand Driving Force Significantly Weakened - In October, the demand for iron ore fluctuated at a high level but gradually weakened. The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills in October was 240,100 tons/day, a month - on - month increase of 1,900 tons, but the weekly data decreased continuously month - on - month, dropping to 236,360 tons at the end of the month. Steel mill profits shrank significantly, and the profitability rate dropped to 52.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.3%. Terminal steel demand was weak, and the pressure of steel inventory accumulation was transmitted to the raw material end, suppressing iron ore consumption. The port desilting volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills actively reduced their imported ore inventories with weak restocking intentions [10][34]. - Overseas, in October, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The crude steel production of major iron ore importing countries has been poor. In September 2025, the global crude steel production of 70 countries/regions included in the World Steel Association statistics decreased by 1.6% year - on - year [11]. 3.2.2 Supply: Overseas Shipments Stable - China's iron ore imports decreased year - on - year this year, but the decline has recently narrowed. From January to September, China imported 917.69 million tons of iron ore, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to be put into operation smoothly, and the first shipment is planned for November this year. Its annual production capacity is 120 million tons, and it is expected to significantly increase production in 2026 and enter a rapid growth phase from 2027 - 2028 [14]. - In October, the global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The weekly average shipment volume reached 3.302 million tons, an increase of 18,000 tons compared with September. The shipments of major mines in Australia and Brazil were stable. The arrival volume in China increased significantly, and the monthly average weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2.438 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 92,000 tons [15]. 3.2.3 Iron Ore Port Inventory - In the previous month, port iron ore inventories continued to accumulate. As of October 31, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country reached 145.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.65 million tons. The inventory accumulation was due to weakening supply - demand. The arrival volume increased significantly, while the desilting volume decreased, and steel mills slowed down their restocking. In the future, the arrival volume will remain high, but the molten iron production is under pressure to decline, and the port inventory will enter a seasonal accumulation cycle [23][24]. 3.2.4 Steel Mill Inventory Situation - In October, steel mills actively reduced their inventories and became more cautious in procurement. As of the end of the month, the total imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 88.49 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio dropped to 30.35 days. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to 52%, and cash profits have significantly declined. With the deepening of the downstream demand off - season and increasing finished product inventory pressure, it is expected that steel mills will mainly have rigid demand and there will be no large - scale restocking [26]. 3.2.5 Domestic Mine Production Situation - In October, the production of domestic iron ore mines was stable with a slight decline. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and safety production inspections, the iron concentrate powder production of national sample mines remained at around 47,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.21. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines also declined to 60.96%. The supply elasticity of domestic mines is limited, and the market share of domestic mines has slightly shrunk [27][30]. 3.2.6 Shipping Freight Situation - In October, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was stable. As of November 4, the BDI index was reported at 1,958 points, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. On November 4, the freight rate for the Dampier - Qingdao route in Australia was $9.31/ton, a decrease of $0.26/ton in a month, and the freight rate for the Tubarao - Qingdao route in Brazil was $22.95/ton, a month - on - month decrease of $1.21/ton. It is expected that the shipping market will still lack driving force [31]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The demand side will continue to weaken. Steel mills will be more cautious in procurement, and the demand for iron ore will be further suppressed. The supply side is expected to remain stable, and port inventories may continue to accumulate. It is expected that the iron ore price will show a volatile and pressured trend, with a focus range of 700 - 810 yuan/ton [34][35].

铁矿石： 供需结构偏紧，关注铁水降幅 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 分析师：李海蓉 黑色研究团队 李海蓉 Z0015849 陈为昌 Z0019850 李卫东 F0201351 中辉期货研究院 时间：2025.10 行情回顾：10月期现货价格震荡偏强 来源:同花顺，中辉期货有限公司 来源:同花顺,中辉期货有限公司 10月期现货价格震荡偏强运行，截至10月30日主力合约期货价格月环比上涨22元/吨 2 铁矿石市场观点摘要 【供应端】四大矿山11月发运减少，预估环比减量发运760万吨左右；全球非主流发运整体比较稳定，11 月预估发运4460万吨，环比减量175万吨左右；国产矿预计11月份产量1995万吨，环比减少65万吨；11月 全球供应整体环比减量1000万吨左右。 【需求端】按照钢联统计口径，10月全国生铁产量预估7475万吨，同比增加6.16%；11月预计高炉铁水产 量7140万吨，环比减少335万吨。折算铁矿石需求减少588万吨。海外方面，除中国外生铁日均产量暂稳， 预估11月份生铁产量减少30万吨，折算61%品位的铁矿石需求减少49万吨左右。综合全球来看，11月份铁 矿石 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3]. - The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term [3]. - The trading volume of iron ore spot has increased, while the trading volume of forward contracts has declined from a high level. The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased [3]. - This week, the iron ore output of 247 samples announced by Steel Union was 239.9 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short-term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 139 tons week-on-week, and the proportion of trade ore is 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills has increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant has decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore have remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. - The profits of finished products have continued to decline significantly; the price difference between scrap iron in Tangshan has decreased; the proportion of lump ore in the furnace has slightly decreased, the proportion of pellet ore in the furnace has decreased; and the proportion of sinter in the furnace has continued to increase [3]. - The average value of the MA index in October was 104, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 822 [3]. - The premium of Jinbabu powder has weakened; the premiums of mainstream medium - and low - grade ores have remained stable; and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores has remained stable [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - On October 26, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,655 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Australia was 2,751 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Brazil was 1,196 thousand tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [24]. - According to the iron ore balance sheet, the total supply in 2025/10 was 13,237, with production of 2,529 and imports of 10,708. Exports were 147. The total supply cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 0.1% [181]. Demand - The iron ore output of 247 samples was 239.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05 tons. The average daily iron ore output in October was about 239.9 tons. Short - term demand has slightly decreased, and iron ore output may decline slowly [3]. - According to the balance sheet, the consumption in 2025/10 was 12,081, and the total consumption was 12,229 [181]. Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 139 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of trade ore was 64.1%. The total inventory of imported ore by steel mills increased by 97 tons, the inventory at the plant decreased by 36 tons, and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory increased by 133 tons. The available days of imported ore remained unchanged at 20 days [3]. Price and Basis - The basis rate of the 01 contract is around 4.6%, the basis has slightly declined, and the basis rate has decreased. The 1 - 5 monthly spread has shown a narrow - range oscillation [3][158]. - The prices of various iron ore varieties in the spot market have changed to different degrees. For example, on October 27, 2025, the price of PB powder was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a daily change of 1 and a weekly change of 4 [160]. Market Outlook - Supply remains high, downstream profits have significantly declined, and demand may continue to decline. However, downstream finished product inventories are still being reduced. In the short term, futures prices may remain strong, but there is a possibility of weakening [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Supply of iron ore is rising, demand is declining, downstream profits are weakening, and after continuous inventory accumulation, futures prices may face downward pressure. The monthly spread may remain volatile in the short term, and the spot trading volume has increased. Iron water production may have reached its peak and is expected to decline. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global iron ore shipments have increased, with shipments from Australia rising and those from Brazil recovering, while shipments from non - mainstream regions are weak. As of October 12, 2025, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4,550 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.35% and a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. Australian 7 - day moving average shipment volume was 2,816 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. Brazilian 7 - day moving average shipment volume was 934.9 thousand tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 24.5% and a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. [3][24] Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 samples decreased by 0.31 tons week - on - week to 241.54 tons. The average daily molten iron production in October was about 241 tons. With more recent overhauls, the molten iron production may have reached its peak and is expected to decline. The profit of finished steel products continued to decline slightly, and the scrap - iron price difference in Tangshan decreased. [3] Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports increased by 232,400 tons week - on - week, and the proportion of traded ore was 65.23%. The total inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased by 9.9 million tons, with the plant inventory decreasing by 2.8712 million tons and the sum of sea - floating and port inventory decreasing by 7.0348 million tons. The available days of imported ore decreased by 3 days to 21 days. The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, with the inventory of rebar increasing and the inventory of hot - rolled coils increasing significantly. [3] Price and Basis - The trading volume of iron ore spot and forward contracts increased significantly. The basis rate of the 01 contract was about 4%, with a slight increase in the basis and an upward basis rate. The 1 - 5 monthly spread fluctuated within a narrow range. [3][158] Variety Differences - The premium of Jinbabu powder weakened, the premiums of mainstream medium - low - grade ores were stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores decreased. [3] Balance Sheet - The total supply of iron ore from 2025/1 to 2026/5 shows certain fluctuations, with production and imports being the main sources. Exports and consumption also vary in different months. There are periods of surplus and deficit. Although the molten iron production is expected to decline, the current level is still relatively high, and the recent consumption is slightly adjusted upwards. [181]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Static calculations suggest that China's iron ore imports in 2025 may first decrease and then increase, with a year - on - year reduction of 8.08 million tons (-0.5%) to 1.228 billion tons. The new production capacity of mines in Australia and Brazil is expanding more slowly than expected, and events such as abnormal weather significantly affect shipments. Shipments are expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The total supply will decrease by 7.95 million tons (-0.51%) to 1.525 billion tons. [5][102] - In terms of demand, in 2025, the decline in the real estate sector in China will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). Overseas, the pig iron production in major iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while India's steel demand will continue to be strong. [5][102] - As of early September 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 138 million tons. Although the mine production capacity is slowly expanding in 2025, unexpected events such as abnormal weather have a large impact on shipments. The demand growth is resilient, and hot metal production shows the characteristic of "no off - season". Static calculations indicate that the iron ore supply - demand situation is moving towards a looser state, and there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but short - term supply - demand tightness may still occur. [5][102] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global Shipment: From January to August 2025, the global daily average shipment was 4.28 million tons/day, a 0.5% decrease compared to 4.3 million tons/day in the same period of the previous year. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly in the first quarter due to weather effects and then recovered to the previous year's level. The shipments from non - mainstream regions have been consistently low in recent years. [10] - Australia: From January to August 2025, Australia's global average daily shipment was 2.476 million tons/day, a 0.69% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The average daily shipment to China was 2.082 million tons/day, a 1.86% increase. The main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Western Range (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and the Onslow project (the capacity launch may be delayed until September due to road upgrades). If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment. [13] - Major Australian Companies: - Rio Tinto: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 804,000 tons/day, a 2.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The Western Range project, which was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, is the main source of production capacity increment, but due to weather effects, the annual shipment target is affected. [17] - BHP: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 791,000 tons/day, a 1.28% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity production reached 29 million tons, a record high. The South Flank mine may be the main source of increment, with a stable annual production capacity of 80 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year. It is expected that BHP will achieve a high - level production in 2025, and there will be no new projects put into production in the fourth quarter. [22] - FMG: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 517,000 tons/day, a 4.87% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year, the target range was broadened to 190 - 202 million tons. The Iron Bridge project was originally scheduled to reach full production in September 2025 but has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. [27] - Brazil: From January to August 2025, Brazil's average daily shipment was 1.0391 million tons/day, a 2.2% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. Vale's average daily shipment was 951,600 tons/day, a 1.02% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. In the first half of 2025, Vale's total production was 151 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. The production in 2025 is expected to be close to the lower limit of the target (about 325 million tons) mainly due to the licensing issues in the Serra Norte mining area restricting the increment. The Capanema project is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2025, adding 15 million tons of production capacity. The S11D +20 mining area is expected to release production capacity in 2026. [31] - Non - mainstream Regions: In 2025, the iron ore shipments from India decreased significantly, while Canada increased its exports due to cost reduction through new technologies, and South Africa's export increment was mainly due to the optimization of railway transportation capacity. From January to August 2025, Canada's average daily shipment was 164,500 tons/day, a 5.85% year - on - year increase, and South Africa's average daily shipment was 152,300 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. [36][41] - China's Domestic Production: In the first seven months of 2025, China's cumulative iron ore production decreased by 3.28% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, production is expected to recover, and the domestic iron concentrate powder production in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.05% year - on - year to 297 million tons. Some new production capacities (such as the first - phase project of Liaoning Sishanling Iron Mine and Hebei Macheng Iron Mine) have been postponed, and safety and environmental inspections in Northeast and North China have led to the phased shutdown of small and medium - sized mines. [5][51] Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). From January to July 2025, the estimated pig iron production was 617 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.32%. The estimated pig iron production in 2025 is 920 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.65%. [5][73] - Overseas: From January to July 2025, overseas pig iron production was 234 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. Among the main overseas regions, India's pig iron production continued to grow at a high rate of 7.05%, while the pig iron production in other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. [56] Inventory - Port Inventory: In the first half of 2025, due to the decline in overseas shipments and unexpected demand, the iron ore inventory at ports decreased significantly. As of September 2025, the total inventory in the iron ore industry chain decreased by about 13.6 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 192 million tons. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, with the release of new production capacities and the slow decline in downstream demand, the downward trend of iron ore inventory may be reversed. [86] - Variety - specific Inventory: Based on data from 15 major ports, while the total inventory is slowly decreasing, there is significant differentiation among varieties. The inventory of Brazilian ore first decreased and then increased, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently decreased significantly. The inventory of low - grade ore has decreased significantly, the overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB fines has started to reach a high level. [90] Price - In the absence of obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and in China, the iron ore supply - demand balance will be achieved through price cuts and shipment reductions, and the cost support around $80 - 85 per ton is relatively strong. [94]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【昨日黑色系集体回升，铁矿石期现价格走势受供需影响】昨日，黑色系集体回升，碳元素价格因供给 端因素扰动表现相对强势，铁矿石随之运行。当前，铁矿石供应回升预期不变，华北地区复产带动铁水 回升。 不过，钢厂利润回落至盈亏平衡线，螺纹库存高企，短期铁矿石需求难维持前期高位，期现价 格难以独立持续走强，后期需关注终端需求变动和宏观驱动。 供应方面，外矿发运环比回升，创今年 新高，澳洲、巴西及非主流矿均显著回升。到港量略高于去年同期，随着前期高发运量持续到港，供给 端压力将逐步体现，支撑力度持续减弱。 需求方面，华北地区环保限产结束，国内需求回升至前期水 平。本期日均铁水产量240.55，钢厂盈利率虽持续回落，但仍处近五年历史同期高位。临近十一假期， 钢厂有集中补库需求，库存水平偏低，短期补库需求或支撑铁矿石价格。 库存方面，钢厂端日耗随多 地区复产增加，库存小幅增加但低于去年同期。中下旬进入节前补库阶段，钢厂库存将季节性回升。本 期港口库存延续小幅增加态势，环保解除后疏港量显著回升，国内节前补库将推动库存下降。 市场对 美联储降息定价充分，预计交投重心转向交 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from tight - balance to balance, and the short - term price will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market focuses more on industrial fundamentals, with positive external macro factors and domestic policies in the reserve stage, still having expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Supply - External ore shipments have rebounded more than expected. Australian shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazilian shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). Steel mills have a high profitability rate and relatively good blast furnace profits, while the short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2][3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and pig iron production remains high, the short - term inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship is shifting from balanced and tight to balanced. Short - term interval operation is recommended. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore runs in the range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market price of about 101 - 105 US dollars/ton [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - The rebound of foreign ore shipments exceeds expectations. Australia's shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazil's shipments reach a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and is generally on the rise, and the marginal support on the supply side is weakening [3] Demand - The daily average molten iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average molten iron output is 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). The current profitability rate of steel mills is high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable, while the short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the molten iron output can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction situation in North China [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high, and the inventory at the steel mill end has continued to increase month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in the arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated this period. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and the molten iron output remains high, it is expected that the inventory will generally tend to be stable or decline slightly in the short term [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The sentiment in the iron ore market has declined, leading to a downward adjustment in a volatile manner. The previous significant increase in the valuation of the black - sector under the support of theme trading and macro - policy expectations might have been an over - rise. Considering the relatively limited marginal changes in fundamentals, the recent decline in sentiment has caused the iron ore price to fall [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas shipments continued to recover, with the increase in the recent week mainly coming from Australia. The global shipment volume was 3200.9 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 91.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 181.9 million tons. Australian shipments were 1793.5 million tons, up 222.3 million tons week - on - week and 225.3 million tons year - on - year. Brazilian shipments were 884.3 million tons, down 23.5 million tons week - on - week and 35.1 million tons year - on - year [4][5]. - Among Australian shipments, FMG contributed the main increase in shipments to China, with a week - on - week increase of 84.9 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 170.4 million tons. Vale's global shipments decreased by 46.8 million tons week - on - week and 96.8 million tons year - on - year [4]. - In terms of non - mainstream mines, Peru's shipments recovered poorly. In the domestic market, the operating rate in North China declined significantly recently [20][27]. 3.2 Demand - The downstream iron - making production slightly decreased, with the 247 - enterprise hot metal output at 240.71 million tons, down 1.52 million tons week - on - week but up 1.10 million tons year - on - year. The output of the five major steel products still had a large year - on - year increase [4][30]. - The arrival of scrap steel increased recently, but the scrap steel price remained basically flat week - on - week. The scrap - iron price difference continued to narrow, but the narrowing slope slowed down [31]. 3.3 Contract Performance The price of the main 09 contract was volatile and weak, closing at 783.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 410,000 lots, a decrease of 119,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 369,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 150,000 lots [7]. 3.4 Spot Price Performance The spot price basically followed the futures market, showing a phased peak - to - trough decline. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) at Qingdao Port dropped from 882 yuan/ton last week to 870 yuan/ton this week [11]. 3.5 Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory had not arrived yet. The inventory of imported ores at 45 ports was 13,657.9 million tons, down 132.5 million tons week - on - week and 1386.1 million tons year - on - year [4][35]. - Due to production - increasing demand and the decline in Indian shipments, the pellet inventory continued to be depleted [36]. 3.6 Downstream Profit The profit of finished steel products reached a high and then declined, including the spot profit of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts [38]. 3.7 Spot Category Price Difference The price of imported ores continued to decline, and the price difference between domestic and imported ores further widened [40]. 3.8 Futures Monthly Spread - The 09 - 01 monthly spread closed at 26 yuan/ton this week, narrowing week - on - week. - The 01 - 05 monthly spread closed at 23.5 yuan/ton this week, widening week - on - week [47]. 3.9 Basis Performance The decline of the spot and futures prices was comparable this week, and the basis remained basically flat week - on - week [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with a significant increase in FMG shipments driving up Australia's overall shipments, while Brazil's shipments declined slightly, and non - mainstream countries' shipments dropped to a relatively low level for the year. Daily hot metal production decreased slightly due to production issues at some steel mills. Port inventories decreased, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased slightly. - From a fundamental perspective, the steel mill profitability rate remains at a high level, and there is no obvious downward pressure on hot metal production, so demand support still exists. The overall growth on the supply side is limited, and iron ore port inventories are trending downward. - Iron ore prices are affected by domestic commodity policy expectations, downstream profits, and commodity sentiment. After the important meeting in July, the released content was basically in line with expectations, and some aspects were slightly below expectations. In the short term, the overall commodities may be adjusted, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate with downstream prices, mainly in a volatile state. Market divergence still exists, and risk control should be noted. [11][13][14] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments totaled 32.009 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 918,000 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.039 million tons. Australia's shipments were 18.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.302 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 15.504 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.068 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.964 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 262,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 23.197 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.921 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 142.2201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7367 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.142 million tons. [11][13][14] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder spread was 102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder spread was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 11.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 1.5 yuan/ton. - **Input Ratios and Scrap Steel**: The pellet input ratio was 15.22%, unchanged from the previous period. The lump ore input ratio was 12.25%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The sinter input ratio was 72.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. - **Profits**: The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 1.69 yuan/wet ton. [16][19][22] 3. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.579 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3248 million tons. The pellet inventory was 380,140 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,150 tons. - The port inventory of iron concentrate powder was 1.06708 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,420 tons. The port inventory of lump ore was 1.71706 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,560 tons. - The port inventory of Australian ore was 59.9685 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.964 million tons. The port inventory of Brazilian ore was 48.4307 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 644,700 tons. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2687 million tons. [32][35][38][41][46] 4. Supply Side - **19 - Port Data**: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 14.894 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.04 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 235,000 tons. - **Major Miners**: Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 4.898 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 327,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.963 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 363,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 6.388 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 468,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.639 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 849,000 tons. - **Arrival and Import Data**: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 59.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 463,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 173,000 tons. [48][51][54][57][60][66] 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production and Blast Furnace Utilization**: Domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,000 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points. - **Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.0271 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.244 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9946 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 164,000 tons. [68][71][74] 6. Basis As of August 1, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 50.41 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.05%. [76][79]