1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Static calculations suggest that China's iron ore imports in 2025 may first decrease and then increase, with a year - on - year reduction of 8.08 million tons (-0.5%) to 1.228 billion tons. The new production capacity of mines in Australia and Brazil is expanding more slowly than expected, and events such as abnormal weather significantly affect shipments. Shipments are expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The total supply will decrease by 7.95 million tons (-0.51%) to 1.525 billion tons. [5][102] - In terms of demand, in 2025, the decline in the real estate sector in China will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). Overseas, the pig iron production in major iron ore - importing countries is expected to decline slightly, while India's steel demand will continue to be strong. [5][102] - As of early September 2025, the inventory at 45 ports was 138 million tons. Although the mine production capacity is slowly expanding in 2025, unexpected events such as abnormal weather have a large impact on shipments. The demand growth is resilient, and hot metal production shows the characteristic of "no off - season". Static calculations indicate that the iron ore supply - demand situation is moving towards a looser state, and there is a high possibility of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, but short - term supply - demand tightness may still occur. [5][102] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - Global Shipment: From January to August 2025, the global daily average shipment was 4.28 million tons/day, a 0.5% decrease compared to 4.3 million tons/day in the same period of the previous year. The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased significantly in the first quarter due to weather effects and then recovered to the previous year's level. The shipments from non - mainstream regions have been consistently low in recent years. [10] - Australia: From January to August 2025, Australia's global average daily shipment was 2.476 million tons/day, a 0.69% increase compared to the same period in 2024. The average daily shipment to China was 2.082 million tons/day, a 1.86% increase. The main production capacity increments in Australia in 2025 come from the Western Range (officially put into production on June 6, 2025) and the Onslow project (the capacity launch may be delayed until September due to road upgrades). If the weather remains normal, the iron ore shipments in the fourth quarter may maintain a certain increment. [13] - Major Australian Companies: - Rio Tinto: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 804,000 tons/day, a 2.9% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. The Western Range project, which was fully put into production on June 6, 2025, is the main source of production capacity increment, but due to weather effects, the annual shipment target is affected. [17] - BHP: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 791,000 tons/day, a 1.28% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year (July 2024 - June 2025), BHP's 100% equity production reached 29 million tons, a record high. The South Flank mine may be the main source of increment, with a stable annual production capacity of 80 million tons in the 2025 fiscal year. It is expected that BHP will achieve a high - level production in 2025, and there will be no new projects put into production in the fourth quarter. [22] - FMG: From January to August 2025, the average daily shipment was 517,000 tons/day, a 4.87% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In the 2025 fiscal year, the target range was broadened to 190 - 202 million tons. The Iron Bridge project was originally scheduled to reach full production in September 2025 but has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. [27] - Brazil: From January to August 2025, Brazil's average daily shipment was 1.0391 million tons/day, a 2.2% increase compared to the same period in the previous year. Vale's average daily shipment was 951,600 tons/day, a 1.02% decrease compared to the same period in the previous year. In the first half of 2025, Vale's total production was 151 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. The production in 2025 is expected to be close to the lower limit of the target (about 325 million tons) mainly due to the licensing issues in the Serra Norte mining area restricting the increment. The Capanema project is expected to be put into production in the first half of 2025, adding 15 million tons of production capacity. The S11D +20 mining area is expected to release production capacity in 2026. [31] - Non - mainstream Regions: In 2025, the iron ore shipments from India decreased significantly, while Canada increased its exports due to cost reduction through new technologies, and South Africa's export increment was mainly due to the optimization of railway transportation capacity. From January to August 2025, Canada's average daily shipment was 164,500 tons/day, a 5.85% year - on - year increase, and South Africa's average daily shipment was 152,300 tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase. [36][41] - China's Domestic Production: In the first seven months of 2025, China's cumulative iron ore production decreased by 3.28% year - on - year. In the fourth quarter, production is expected to recover, and the domestic iron concentrate powder production in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.05% year - on - year to 297 million tons. Some new production capacities (such as the first - phase project of Liaoning Sishanling Iron Mine and Hebei Macheng Iron Mine) have been postponed, and safety and environmental inspections in Northeast and North China have led to the phased shutdown of small and medium - sized mines. [5][51] Demand - Domestic: In 2025, the decline in the real estate sector will slow down, infrastructure investment will show positive year - on - year growth, and the manufacturing industry will continue to improve. The annual iron ore demand is estimated to be 1.496 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 55.52 million tons (+3.85%). From January to July 2025, the estimated pig iron production was 617 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.32%. The estimated pig iron production in 2025 is 920 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.65%. [5][73] - Overseas: From January to July 2025, overseas pig iron production was 234 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.31%. Among the main overseas regions, India's pig iron production continued to grow at a high rate of 7.05%, while the pig iron production in other major steel - producing countries mainly declined. [56] Inventory - Port Inventory: In the first half of 2025, due to the decline in overseas shipments and unexpected demand, the iron ore inventory at ports decreased significantly. As of September 2025, the total inventory in the iron ore industry chain decreased by about 13.6 million tons compared to the end of 2024 to 192 million tons. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, with the release of new production capacities and the slow decline in downstream demand, the downward trend of iron ore inventory may be reversed. [86] - Variety - specific Inventory: Based on data from 15 major ports, while the total inventory is slowly decreasing, there is significant differentiation among varieties. The inventory of Brazilian ore first decreased and then increased, and the inventory of Australian ore has recently decreased significantly. The inventory of low - grade ore has decreased significantly, the overall level of medium - grade ore has increased, and the inventory of PB fines has started to reach a high level. [90] Price - In the absence of obvious incremental expectations for pig iron demand in major overseas countries and in China, the iron ore supply - demand balance will be achieved through price cuts and shipment reductions, and the cost support around $80 - 85 per ton is relatively strong. [94]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【昨日黑色系集体回升，铁矿石期现价格走势受供需影响】昨日，黑色系集体回升，碳元素价格因供给 端因素扰动表现相对强势，铁矿石随之运行。当前，铁矿石供应回升预期不变，华北地区复产带动铁水 回升。 不过，钢厂利润回落至盈亏平衡线，螺纹库存高企，短期铁矿石需求难维持前期高位，期现价 格难以独立持续走强，后期需关注终端需求变动和宏观驱动。 供应方面，外矿发运环比回升，创今年 新高，澳洲、巴西及非主流矿均显著回升。到港量略高于去年同期，随着前期高发运量持续到港，供给 端压力将逐步体现，支撑力度持续减弱。 需求方面，华北地区环保限产结束，国内需求回升至前期水 平。本期日均铁水产量240.55，钢厂盈利率虽持续回落，但仍处近五年历史同期高位。临近十一假期， 钢厂有集中补库需求，库存水平偏低，短期补库需求或支撑铁矿石价格。 库存方面，钢厂端日耗随多 地区复产增加，库存小幅增加但低于去年同期。中下旬进入节前补库阶段，钢厂库存将季节性回升。本 期港口库存延续小幅增加态势，环保解除后疏港量显著回升，国内节前补库将推动库存下降。 市场对 美联储降息定价充分，预计交投重心转向交 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from tight - balance to balance, and the short - term price will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market focuses more on industrial fundamentals, with positive external macro factors and domestic policies in the reserve stage, still having expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Supply - External ore shipments have rebounded more than expected. Australian shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazilian shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). Steel mills have a high profitability rate and relatively good blast furnace profits, while the short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2][3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and pig iron production remains high, the short - term inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [3].

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：供给增速超预期 短期矿价承压 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 2025 年 8 月 19 日 逻辑：昨日黑色系整体走弱，宏观面扰动减弱，市场交投重心回归产业基本面，成材端表 需偏弱、碳元素盘面估值回归，铁矿石供需矛盾趋弱，当前高炉高利润高位回落以及短流程谷 电再度陷入亏损，预计短期铁矿石需求韧性较强但增量空间受限，铁矿石供给端回升超预期对 盘面也形成一定抑制，价格整体跟随板块走势。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供应方面：外矿发运回升幅度超预期，其中澳洲稳中有增，巴西发运创出历史高值，非主 流连续三周上升并创出历史同期高值；到港量处于中位偏高水平但整体趋于上升，供给端支撑 边际减弱。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内日均铁水量结束连续三周回落并小幅回升，本期日均铁水产量 240.66（环 比+0.34），当前钢厂盈利率水平高位且高炉利润水平相对可观，短流程再度陷入全面亏损， 短期铁矿石需求仍保持韧性，国内高需求对价格形成较强支撑，后期需关注铁水能否维持高位 上升态势以及华北地区阅兵限产动向。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：钢厂端进口矿日耗保持高位，钢厂端库存环比持续上升且已高于去 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The sentiment in the iron ore market has declined, leading to a downward adjustment in a volatile manner. The previous significant increase in the valuation of the black - sector under the support of theme trading and macro - policy expectations might have been an over - rise. Considering the relatively limited marginal changes in fundamentals, the recent decline in sentiment has caused the iron ore price to fall [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas shipments continued to recover, with the increase in the recent week mainly coming from Australia. The global shipment volume was 3200.9 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 91.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 181.9 million tons. Australian shipments were 1793.5 million tons, up 222.3 million tons week - on - week and 225.3 million tons year - on - year. Brazilian shipments were 884.3 million tons, down 23.5 million tons week - on - week and 35.1 million tons year - on - year [4][5]. - Among Australian shipments, FMG contributed the main increase in shipments to China, with a week - on - week increase of 84.9 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 170.4 million tons. Vale's global shipments decreased by 46.8 million tons week - on - week and 96.8 million tons year - on - year [4]. - In terms of non - mainstream mines, Peru's shipments recovered poorly. In the domestic market, the operating rate in North China declined significantly recently [20][27]. 3.2 Demand - The downstream iron - making production slightly decreased, with the 247 - enterprise hot metal output at 240.71 million tons, down 1.52 million tons week - on - week but up 1.10 million tons year - on - year. The output of the five major steel products still had a large year - on - year increase [4][30]. - The arrival of scrap steel increased recently, but the scrap steel price remained basically flat week - on - week. The scrap - iron price difference continued to narrow, but the narrowing slope slowed down [31]. 3.3 Contract Performance The price of the main 09 contract was volatile and weak, closing at 783.0 yuan/ton. The open interest was 410,000 lots, a decrease of 119,000 lots. The average daily trading volume was 369,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 150,000 lots [7]. 3.4 Spot Price Performance The spot price basically followed the futures market, showing a phased peak - to - trough decline. For example, the price of Carajás fines (64.5%) at Qingdao Port dropped from 882 yuan/ton last week to 870 yuan/ton this week [11]. 3.5 Inventory - The inflection point of port inventory had not arrived yet. The inventory of imported ores at 45 ports was 13,657.9 million tons, down 132.5 million tons week - on - week and 1386.1 million tons year - on - year [4][35]. - Due to production - increasing demand and the decline in Indian shipments, the pellet inventory continued to be depleted [36]. 3.6 Downstream Profit The profit of finished steel products reached a high and then declined, including the spot profit of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and the disk profit of rebar and hot - rolled coil contracts [38]. 3.7 Spot Category Price Difference The price of imported ores continued to decline, and the price difference between domestic and imported ores further widened [40]. 3.8 Futures Monthly Spread - The 09 - 01 monthly spread closed at 26 yuan/ton this week, narrowing week - on - week. - The 01 - 05 monthly spread closed at 23.5 yuan/ton this week, widening week - on - week [47]. 3.9 Basis Performance The decline of the spot and futures prices was comparable this week, and the basis remained basically flat week - on - week [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The latest overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with a significant increase in FMG shipments driving up Australia's overall shipments, while Brazil's shipments declined slightly, and non - mainstream countries' shipments dropped to a relatively low level for the year. Daily hot metal production decreased slightly due to production issues at some steel mills. Port inventories decreased, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased slightly. - From a fundamental perspective, the steel mill profitability rate remains at a high level, and there is no obvious downward pressure on hot metal production, so demand support still exists. The overall growth on the supply side is limited, and iron ore port inventories are trending downward. - Iron ore prices are affected by domestic commodity policy expectations, downstream profits, and commodity sentiment. After the important meeting in July, the released content was basically in line with expectations, and some aspects were slightly below expectations. In the short term, the overall commodities may be adjusted, and iron ore is expected to fluctuate with downstream prices, mainly in a volatile state. Market divergence still exists, and risk control should be noted. [11][13][14] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments totaled 32.009 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 918,000 tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 27.559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.039 million tons. Australia's shipments were 18.596 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.302 million tons, and the volume shipped to China was 15.504 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.068 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.964 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 262,000 tons. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 23.197 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.921 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons. - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal production was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 142.2201 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7367 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.142 million tons. [11][13][14] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: The PB - Super Special powder spread was 125 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder spread was 102 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 2.0 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder spread was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 0 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was - 11.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 1.5 yuan/ton. - **Input Ratios and Scrap Steel**: The pellet input ratio was 15.22%, unchanged from the previous period. The lump ore input ratio was 12.25%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The sinter input ratio was 72.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. - **Profits**: The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73 percentage points; the import profit of PB powder was - 1.69 yuan/wet ton. [16][19][22] 3. Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.579 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3248 million tons. The pellet inventory was 380,140 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,150 tons. - The port inventory of iron concentrate powder was 1.06708 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,420 tons. The port inventory of lump ore was 1.71706 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,560 tons. - The port inventory of Australian ore was 59.9685 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.964 million tons. The port inventory of Brazilian ore was 48.4307 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 644,700 tons. - The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.2687 million tons. [32][35][38][41][46] 4. Supply Side - **19 - Port Data**: The volume of Australian ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 14.894 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.04 million tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.843 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 235,000 tons. - **Major Miners**: Rio Tinto's shipments to China were 4.898 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 327,000 tons. BHP's shipments to China were 4.963 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 363,000 tons. Vale's shipments were 6.388 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 468,000 tons. FMG's shipments to China were 3.639 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 849,000 tons. - **Arrival and Import Data**: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.405 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.307 million tons. In June, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6103 million tons. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 59.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.22 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 463,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 173,000 tons. [48][51][54][57][60][66] 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production and Blast Furnace Utilization**: Domestic daily average hot metal production was 2.4071 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 152,000 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.57 percentage points. - **Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption**: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.0271 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.244 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9946 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 164,000 tons. [68][71][74] 6. Basis As of August 1, the calculated basis of iron ore IOC6 was 50.41 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.05%. [76][79]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - In August, the global iron ore supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, leading to a relatively loose supply - demand balance. Prices are likely to fluctuate and trend weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In July, the futures and spot prices of iron ore fluctuated and trended strongly. As of July 30, the futures price of the main contract increased by 73.5 yuan/ton month - on - month [5]. 3.2 Supply - Side Analysis - **Mainstream Mines**: The shipments of the four major mines are expected to rebound in August, with an estimated month - on - month increase of about 258.5 million tons. Vale is expected to ship 27.1 million tons in August, a month - on - month increase of 3.5 million tons; Rio Tinto is expected to ship 28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 235 million tons; BHP is expected to ship 23.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 75 million tons; FMG is expected to ship 16.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 95 million tons [25][28][30]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Global non - mainstream shipments are relatively stable overall. In August, the estimated shipment is 43.2 million tons, a decrease of about 40 million tons [33]. - **Domestic Mines**: The domestic iron concentrate production in July is estimated to be 20.85 million tons, and the production in August is expected to be 21.15 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30 million tons [36]. - **Total Supply**: The global supply in August is expected to increase by about 248.5 million tons month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Demand - Side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: According to the statistics of Mysteel, the national pig iron production in July is estimated to be 74.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. In August, the blast furnace hot metal production is expected to be 74.84 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3 million tons. The demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to increase slightly by 5 million tons [6][18][22]. - **Overseas Demand**: Except for China, the daily average pig iron production is decreasing. In August, the pig iron production is estimated to decrease slightly by 62,000 tons, and the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease slightly by about 10 million tons [6][21][22]. - **Global Demand**: In August, the demand for 61% grade iron ore is expected to decrease by about 5 million tons globally [6][22]. 3.4 Steel Mill Profit - In July, the profits of long - and short - process steel mills reached a high level, and short - process steel mills turned losses into profits. At the end of July, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a year - on - year increase of 1.13 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a year - on - year increase of 1.20 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a year - on - year increase of 48.49 percentage points; the daily average hot metal production was 2.4223 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,200 tons [9][13][15]. 3.5 Inventory - At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 100 tons. In August, the inventory is expected to accumulate, but the overall inventory accumulation rate will slow down [40]. - Steel mills mainly replenish inventory as needed, with narrow inventory fluctuations and a stable inventory - to - consumption ratio [42]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Table | Date | Supply (million tons) | Demand (million tons) | Export (million tons) | Supply - Demand Surplus (million tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 01 | 127.3078 | 122.0185 | 1.7907 | 3.4987 | | 2025 - 02 | 102.2437 | 123.5627 | 2.2287 | - 23.5478 | | 2025 - 03 | 130.8431 | 126.6254 | 1.9641 | 2.2536 | | 2025 - 04 | 128.6777 | 130.4944 | 1.8359 | - 3.6526 | | 2025 - 05 | 132.3421 | 132.7831 | 2.3730 | - 2.8140 | | 2025 - 06 | 137.1990 | 126.9900 | 1.2567 | 8.9523 | | 2025 - 07 | 135.2500 | 130.6900 | 1.2600 | 3.3000 | | 2025 - 08 | 135.3800 | 130.7500 | 1.6700 | 2.9600 | | 2025 - 09 | 124.4500 | 129.7500 | 1.9600 | - 7.2600 | | 2025 - 10 | 134.7500 | 132.1000 | 1.5700 | 1.0800 | | 2025 - 11 | 128.4500 | 124.4000 | 1.5600 | 2.4900 | | 2025 - 12 | 133.3000 | 123.1000 | 1.6700 | 8.5300 | [48]

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight increase in spot prices and futures contracts, while demand shows signs of decline due to maintenance and production restrictions in steel mills [1][2][4][7]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments decreased by 78,000 tons week-on-week, totaling 29.87 million tons, while port arrivals increased by 1.78 million tons to 26.62 million tons [5]. Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.3981 million tons, down by 10,400 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 83.15%, a decrease of 0.31% [4]. Inventory - Port inventory saw a slight decrease, with an average daily dispatch volume increasing by 2,200 tons week-on-week. As of July 15, port inventory stood at 137.23 million tons, down by 428,000 tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventory rose by 610,000 tons to 89.80 million tons [6]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a downward trend in July, with average daily molten iron production projected to remain around 2.38 million tons. Despite seasonal demand weakening, strong steel exports are providing some support [7].

Supply Growth - The global iron ore supply is expected to increase significantly due to new mining projects, particularly the Simandou project in Guinea, which is projected to have a capacity of 100 million tons per year and reserves of 2.4 billion tons with a grade of 65% [1][2] - Other notable projects include the West Pilbara project in Australia with a capacity of 25 million tons per year, and the BAMIN project in Brazil expected to produce 27 million tons per year by 2027 [2] - The total new iron ore production capacity from these projects is estimated to be nearly 200 million tons annually once fully operational [2] Global Iron Ore Exports - In 2023, global iron ore exports reached 1.71 billion tons, with Australia accounting for 52.5% (898 million tons) and Brazil for 23.9% (408 million tons) [3] - Non-mainstream producers have seen a rise in export volumes, contributing significantly to the growth of global iron ore trade [3] Shipping Volume Fluctuations - Severe weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere affected iron ore shipments from major ports in Australia and Brazil, leading to a significant decline in global shipping volumes in Q1 2023 [4] - The average weekly shipping volume for iron ore in Q1 was 27.9 million tons, down 1.7% year-on-year, but rebounded to an average of 30.01 million tons in H1 2023, reflecting a recovery in shipping activities [4] Domestic Supply Challenges - Domestic iron ore production in China has decreased, with a reported 414 million tons produced in the first five months of 2023, a decline of 9.4% year-on-year [5] - The overall domestic supply of iron ore has contracted significantly due to reduced imports and local production challenges [5][6] Demand Resilience - Domestic steel demand has remained strong in H1 2023, driven by a recovery in manufacturing and infrastructure investment, with an average profit margin for steel mills rising to 54.4% [7] - Steel production has increased, with daily molten iron output reaching 2.357 million tons, a 4% increase year-on-year [7] Outlook for H2 2023 - The iron ore market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with projections indicating a potential supply gap of 1.25 million tons under neutral expectations [9] - The overall supply and demand are anticipated to increase, leading to a more relaxed market condition, with iron ore prices expected to fluctuate within a range [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The iron ore market is experiencing a new round of game between reality and expectation, with prices in a range - bound oscillation. The market is trading the strong reality brought by hot metal and inventory data, while future expectations are in a tug - of - war with the strong reality. It is difficult for iron ore prices to have a smooth unilateral trend, and the timing of price correction may need to wait for signs of marginal weakening in the actual fundamentals [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 09 contract continued to fluctuate narrowly, closing at 703.0 yuan/ton. The position was 677,000 lots, a decrease of 18,900 lots. The average daily trading volume was 420,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 75,000 lots [6]. 3.2 Spot Price Performance - Spot prices continued the trend of supplementary decline. For example, the price of 64.5% Carajás fines at Qingdao Port dropped from 816 yuan/ton last week to 805 yuan/ton this week [8]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply - **Mainstream Mines**: Mainstream shipments have recovered to relatively high levels. With the end - of - fiscal - year volume - pushing drives of BHP and Fortescue, the expectation of loose supply is gradually strengthening. Recently, shipments have returned to year - on - year highs, and freight rates have risen [5][12][16]. - **Non - mainstream Mines**: Indian shipments increased month - on - month, while Peruvian shipments have not recovered [18]. - **Domestic Mines**: Production activities in the southwest region were restricted by anti - corruption inspections, and recently, operations in North China also decreased due to supervision and inspections [26]. 3.4 Iron Ore Demand - **Downstream Demand**: The production of hot metal and five major steel products fluctuated again, providing some support for spot demand [30]. - **Scrap Steel Substitution Effect**: Scrap steel arrivals were relatively neutral, and the price difference between scrap and iron widened again. The substitution effect of raw materials was relatively weak [34]. 3.5 Iron Ore Inventory The inflection point of port inventory has not arrived [37][38]. 3.6 Downstream Profits The performance of finished product prices was relatively strong, and profits were revised upwards [40]. 3.7 Spot Category Price Difference - The price of low - grade ores was firm, and the price difference between medium - and low - grade ores (PB - Super Special) narrowed to a relatively low level. The industrial - end driver mainly comes from the fact that under the background of low coke prices, steel mills tend to use more coke and low - grade ores to optimize the overall cost structure [45]. 3.8 Futures Spread - The 9 - 1 spread narrowed and then widened again, mainly driven by the strong fundamentals of the current situation [47]. 3.9 Basis Performance The futures price was firm, the spot price continued to decline, and the basis repair market continued [54].