Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in platinum and palladium prices is driven by tight supply conditions and strong market sentiment, with significant price increases observed in December 2023 [3][6][10]. Group 1: Price Movements - On December 18, 2023, platinum reached a high of $1995.6 per ounce, while palladium peaked at $1787 per ounce, marking year-to-date increases of 114% for platinum and approximately 85% for palladium [3]. - As of 20:50 on the same day, platinum and palladium prices retreated to around $1920 and $1680 per ounce, respectively, while platinum jewelry prices exceeded 800 yuan per gram [4]. - Domestic palladium futures saw multiple contracts hit the daily limit, with the main contract closing at 476.6 yuan per gram, and platinum also maintaining high levels [5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current price increase is attributed to a combination of tight physical supply, high leasing rates for platinum, and strong buying sentiment in the futures market [6][10]. - The global platinum market is expected to face a supply shortage for the third consecutive year by 2025, with a projected deficit of 850,000 ounces [10]. - Factors contributing to the tight supply include production declines in South Africa and increased demand from the automotive sector, particularly in China and Europe [9][10]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Different institutions have varying outlooks for platinum and palladium prices in 2026. Some, like TD Securities, predict continued strong price increases due to robust automotive demand, while others, such as Heraeus, express caution regarding potential price corrections [11][12]. - Citibank highlights that platinum and palladium have underperformed compared to gold, suggesting potential for price recovery as industrial demand shifts [11]. - Concerns about industrial demand and recession risks may exert downward pressure on platinum prices, despite current market tightness [12].

21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 贵金属年末掀涨势，12月18日"铂族兄弟"——铂金、钯金联袂攀新高。 截至12月18日17:30，今年铂金涨幅达117%，最高价触及1995.6 美元/盎司，涨幅仅次于白银；"好兄 弟"钯金涨幅达95%，最高价触及1787美元/盎司。 业内人士指出，在现货供应持续偏紧、资金情绪共振等多重因素推动下，贵金属市场的上涨逻辑正在不 断强化。不过，对于铂金、钯金明年的表现，市场判断不一，有分析认为其短线"步子过大"，存在炒作 迹象，明年或面临回调压力。 （资料图） 12月18日，国内铂族金属市场再度爆发。广期所铂期货主力合约全天呈现单边上行态势，全天呈现强 势，多个合约尾盘强势封板。钯金是当天的主角，其中钯2606、2608和2610涨停，主力合约钯2606报收 476.6元/克；当天铂金虽然没有涨停，但是也维持在高位，铂2606盘中触及549.9元/克，收盘涨5.32%， 报收542.6元/克，两个品种当日再度刷新历史新高，成交量也出现明显放大。 国信期货指出，铂、钯期货双双大涨，呈现出资金推动与情绪共振的显著特征。本轮上涨主要由现货市 场供应紧张直接驱动。当前，一个月期铂金租赁利率持 ...

记者丨叶麦穗 编辑丨包芳鸣 刚刚，广期所发布最新公告，对铂、钯期货相关合约实施交易限额。 | NYMEX铂 | 1955.3 | 0.89% | | --- | --- | --- | | PL.NYM | | | | NYMEX把 | 1759.00 | 2.27% | | PA.NYM | | | 截至20:50， NYMEX铂、 NYMEX钯 明显回落， 分别在1920美元/盎司、1680美元/盎司附近震荡。 品牌首饰铂金也突破800元/克大关。 六福珠宝等品牌珠宝官网显示，足铂999的价格达到每克815元。深圳水贝市场的铂金饰品克价也涨至470 元左右，今年6月的时候克价还在300元左右。 贵金属年末掀涨势，12月18日"铂族兄弟"—— 铂金、钯金联袂攀新高。 NYMEX铂最高触及 1995.6 美元/盎司， "好兄弟"NYMEX钯最高价触 及1787美元/盎司，其中铂金年内涨幅高达114%，仅次于白银，钯金年内涨幅约85%。 业内人士指出，在现货供应持续偏紧、资金情绪共振等多重因素推动下，贵金属市场的上涨逻辑正在不断强化。不过，对于铂金、钯金明年的 表现，市场判断不一， 有分析认为其短线"步子过大" ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The platinum group metals (PGMs) market is unexpectedly stabilizing in 2024 after years of volatility, with prices rebounding and fluctuating within a narrow range despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - Demand for the five PGMs exceeds supply, with a projected 16% of global PGM production facing losses due to limited capital investment and corporate restructuring [2][18] Group 2: Production and Supply - In 2024, global PGM production is estimated to be significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, with mining supply of 5E PGMs remaining constrained [2][11] - Recycling supply of PGMs is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year, driven by recovery in catalytic converter recycling, although it remains 24% below 2021 levels [2] Group 3: Price Projections - Platinum prices are projected to rise to $970 per ounce in 2025, supported by supply shortages, but the increase will be limited due to substantial above-ground stocks [3][18] - Palladium prices are expected to decline by 5% to $930 per ounce in 2025 due to weakening demand from the automotive sector [4][19] - Rhodium prices are forecasted to increase by 8% to $5,000 per ounce in 2025, supported by limited inventory [5][20] - Iridium prices are anticipated to drop by 14% to $4,100 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a high base from 2024 [6][20] - Ruthenium prices are expected to rise by 26% to $550 per ounce in 2025, driven by strong demand [7][21] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The automotive sector's total demand for PGMs is projected to decline for the first time since 2020, with a 4% decrease in demand for platinum, palladium, and rhodium due to the slowdown in electrification [11] - Industrial demand for PGMs shows significant divergence, with platinum and palladium demand decreasing due to soft chemical industry demand, while rhodium demand is rebounding due to recovery in the glass industry [11][12] - Iridium demand is expected to reach a historical high, driven by expansion in the chemical industry and increased applications in electronics [12]