1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the precious metals market witnessed a spectacular bull market driven by multiple factors such as the evolution of the global monetary system, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand imbalances. In 2026, the precious metals market will be jointly driven by macro - financial attributes and industrial supply - demand fundamentals, with significant differentiation among varieties [4][97]. - The safe - haven attribute of precious metals is shifting from the traditional model to hedging against sovereign credit risks. The currency attribute is affected by factors like inflation, employment, and central bank monetary policies. The commodity attribute is characterized by structural changes in supply and demand for different precious metals [19][27][68]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, all four major precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) soared. Gold continued its bull market, silver and platinum doubled in value, and the precious metals sector became the most outstanding asset class. The market's rise was phased, with gold leading in Q1, silver emerging in Q2, and platinum and palladium surging in Q3 and Q4 [4]. - Gold reached a record high of over $4500 per ounce, with a nearly 70% annual increase. Silver was the star performer, rising over 140%. Platinum and palladium also had significant gains, with platinum up about 160% and palladium over 100% [8][10][14][17]. 3.2 Evolution Logic of the Safe - Haven Attribute - The safe - haven function of precious metals is shifting from traditional geopolitical and economic recession hedging to hedging against the sustainability of sovereign currency credit, especially the US dollar. This is due to the weakening of the US dollar credit and the multi - polarization reconstruction of the global monetary system [19]. - Different precious metals show different safe - haven attributes. Gold is most directly related to sovereign credit concerns, while silver reflects both safe - haven sentiment and industrial cycle changes, and platinum and palladium are more closely related to specific industry trends [21]. - The US debt situation, policy uncertainty, and the potential for a significant correction in the US stock market may increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. However, if geopolitical tensions ease or AI technology boosts productivity, the safe - haven attribute may weaken [23][25][26]. 3.3 Evolution Logic of the Currency Attribute - In 2026, global inflation is expected to continue its moderate decline, but there are significant regional differences. US inflation remains sticky, with a complex "U - shaped" or wave - like downward trend, while the eurozone's inflation problem is basically resolved [27][33][36]. - The US employment market is expected to remain weak in 2026, with low job growth and a rising unemployment rate. This will put pressure on the Fed's decision - making [41][42]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in 2026, but the pace will be extremely slow, and the first cut may be later than market expectations. The difference in interest - rate cut expectations between the Fed and non - US central banks will affect the US dollar index and precious metals prices [52][59][60]. 3.4 Evolution Logic of the Commodity Attribute - In 2026, gold demand is expected to be driven by strategic allocation, with official and institutional investors playing a key role. Supply is facing long - term structural constraints, such as limited growth in mining and reduced elasticity in recycling [68][70]. - The silver market has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years, and the gap is expected to widen in 2026. Supply growth is highly inelastic, while demand is driven by industrial needs and investment [73][74][75]. - The platinum market is expected to reach a tight balance in 2026, but the underlying support is fragile. Any unexpected supply disruption or demand surge may break the balance [79]. - The palladium market is expected to shift from a supply shortage to a surplus in 2026, driven by the decline in automotive demand due to electrification and a marginal increase in supply [80][81]. 3.5 Dynamic Combination Analysis of Fundamental and Technical Aspects - London gold has been in a long - term upward trend. It is expected to continue rising until the Fed hints at the end of interest - rate cuts in mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure at $4830 - 5000 and the support at $4000 [84][85]. - London silver is expected to have high volatility. It is recommended to focus on the pressure at $100 - 120 and the support at $58 [88][89]. - London platinum has entered a new cycle. Pay attention to the pressure at $3000 - 3300 and the support at $1760 [91]. - London palladium is in a long - term re - balancing phase. Focus on the pressure at $2080 - 2480 and the support at $1480 [95]. 3.6 Future Market Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - In 2026, the precious metals market will continue to be strong, but there will be significant differentiation among varieties. Gold will be the most stable, silver will have high price elasticity, platinum has great potential, and palladium is expected to be the weakest [97]. 3.7 Overview of the Domestic Precious Metals Industry Chain - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic gold production increased, with both domestic and imported raw materials contributing. Gold consumption decreased, but there were differences among different product categories. China has been increasing its gold reserves for strategic reasons [98][100][102]. - Major domestic gold enterprises have different production plans and characteristics. For example, Zijin Mining is the largest producer with a high proportion of overseas output, and Shandong Gold has rich resource reserves in the Jiaodong gold belt [103].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China Platinum Group Metals Market Annual Conference highlighted the growing importance of platinum and palladium, referred to as "industrial vitamins," in various dimensions of economic and social development [1] Industry Insights - Platinum and palladium are increasingly favored in the consumer market, particularly in jewelry and investment products [1] - In the industrial sector, platinum serves as a core catalyst in the hydrogen energy industry chain, with its strategic value becoming more pronounced as the "14th Five-Year Plan" for hydrogen energy development progresses [1]

Core Points - The China Gold Association announced a conference on December 10 in Sanya, focusing on the platinum group metals market and its dynamics within the global economic landscape [1] - The conference will discuss industry policy adjustments and trends in technological innovation, aligning with the national strategy of integrating production and finance [1] - Concurrently, the 2025 China (Sanya) International Gold Market Conference and Sustainable Development Conference for the Gold Industry will take place from December 11 to 12 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of platinum and palladium futures and options by the China Securities Regulatory Commission marks a significant step in expanding the futures market and enhancing China's influence in the platinum group metals industry, risk management systems, and international pricing authority [1][4]. Group 1: Market Expansion and Risk Management - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures and options provides essential risk management tools for enterprises, allowing them to hedge against price volatility and stabilize costs or profits [3][7]. - The global supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia, leading to significant price fluctuations influenced by geopolitical and environmental factors [2][4]. - The futures market acts as a "safety valve," enabling companies to lock in costs and profits, thereby reducing uncertainty from raw material price swings [3][6]. Group 2: Pricing Transparency and Market Dynamics - The new futures and options will be priced in RMB, creating a "third pricing curve" in addition to existing markets in London and New York, which will enhance the transparency of price formation in the domestic market [4][5]. - The establishment of a domestic pricing mechanism is expected to improve the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises by reflecting local supply and demand more accurately [5][7]. - The futures market is anticipated to facilitate a more market-oriented and transparent pricing mechanism for platinum and palladium, enriching the commodity trading landscape in China [4][8]. Group 3: Industry Development and Innovation - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options is expected to promote high-quality development across the entire platinum group metals industry chain, from mining to recycling [7][8]. - Innovative delivery methods and robust regulatory frameworks are designed to align with industry practices, enhancing the operational efficiency of the futures market [8]. - The introduction of these financial instruments is likely to attract a diverse range of participants from various sectors, thereby expanding the client base in the futures market [8].

Economic Growth - South Africa's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q2 2025, marking the strongest growth quarter in nearly two years, indicating robust economic momentum [1][5] - The growth follows a slight increase of 0.1% in Q1 2025, demonstrating a continuation of positive economic trends [1] Sector Performance - Key sectors such as manufacturing, mining, and trade led the supply-side growth, while household consumption and reduced imports contributed to demand-side growth [2] - Manufacturing output increased by 1.8%, driven by the automotive, petroleum, chemicals, rubber, and plastics sectors [2] - Mining output rose by 3.7%, the fastest growth since Q1 2021, with platinum group metals, gold, and chrome contributing significantly [2] - The trade, accommodation, and food services sectors grew by 1.7%, reaching the highest level since Q1 2022 [2] - Agriculture continued its positive trend with a third consecutive quarter of growth, supported by increased horticultural and livestock activities [2] Consumer Activity - Household consumption has shown consistent growth for five consecutive quarters, with a 0.8% increase in Q2 2025, fueled by spending in dining, hospitality, clothing, and insurance [2][4] - The retail trade, automotive trade, and food and beverage sectors also experienced growth, contributing positively to the overall economic performance [4] Challenges and Declines - Despite the overall growth, there were declines in demand for alcoholic beverages and housing-related services, as well as a drop in wholesale trade [3] - The construction sector contracted for the third consecutive quarter, with a decline of 0.3%, and transportation, storage, and communication sectors also saw a decrease of 0.8% [3] - Fixed capital investment fell by 1.4%, marking a third consecutive quarter of decline [3] Government Response and Outlook - The South African government views the Q2 2025 economic data as a sign of resilience amid global trade challenges, emphasizing the effectiveness of policies aimed at stimulating growth and supporting local industries [4][5] - Economic analysts predict a moderate acceleration in South Africa's economy, despite the low growth rate, indicating an overall improving trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important members of the platinum - group metals (PGMs), with high demand in practical applications. Their resource distribution is concentrated, and the supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure, which is easily affected by various factors [1][14]. - The platinum - group metal industry chain includes upstream mining, mid - stream processing and recycling, and downstream terminal applications and investment. Each link has its own characteristics and development trends [14]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in different terminal applications varies. For example, palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The application of platinum and palladium in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [41][48]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Variety Overview 3.1.1 Natural Properties - Platinum (Pt) and palladium (Pd) are silver - white metals, belonging to the platinum - group metals (PGMs) along with ruthenium, rhodium, iridium, and osmium. Platinum has a crustal content of five - hundred - millionths, and palladium has a crustal content of one - hundred - millionth [1]. - Platinum has a high melting point, good ductility, excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, high density, and is chemically inert. It is mainly used in industrial catalysts, jewelry, electronics, etc. Palladium has a relatively lower melting point, can adsorb gases like hydrogen, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [2][4]. 3.1.2 Distribution and Classification of Platinum - Group Resources - Platinum - group metals exist in nature in the form of natural elements and complex ores. Platinum deposits are generally related to ultramafic rocks and can be formed through magma action, hydrothermal processes, and exogenous deposition [5]. - Platinum - group metal ores can be divided into primary deposits and exogenous sand deposits. The primary deposits can be further divided into vein platinum deposits mainly composed of platinum - group metals and copper - nickel - type deposits hosted in ultrabasic rocks [5]. - Global platinum - group metal resources are mainly concentrated in five regions: South Africa's Bushveld Complex, Russia's Norilsk - Talnakh region, the US's Stillwater Complex, Zimbabwe's Great Dyke, and Canada's Sudbury [11]. 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain 3.2.1 Upstream Mining - The platinum - group metal supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure. Most of the raw material supply and smelting are in the hands of a few integrated mining and smelting producers [14]. - In 2024, the global PGMs resource was estimated to exceed 100,000 tons, and the reserves exceeded 81,000 tons. South Africa's PGMs reserves were 63,000 tons, accounting for nearly 80% of the global total [21]. - The production of platinum and palladium mines is facing bottlenecks due to factors such as resource oligopoly, declining ore grades, rising mining costs, and strict environmental policies. In 2024, the global palladium mine production was 190 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.65%, and the platinum mine production was 170 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.02% [25]. 3.2.2 Platinum - Group Material Supply and Recycling - Global precious metal multinational groups such as Umicore, Johnson Matthey, Heraeus, and Tanaka dominate the platinum - group metal material processing and recycling fields [30]. - As high - grade resources become scarce, secondary resources of platinum - group metals are becoming increasingly important. However, domestic recycling enterprises face fierce competition, and the supply of secondary resources is becoming increasingly tight [30]. 3.2.3 Terminal Applications - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: Palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The choice of platinum - group metals in catalysts depends on catalytic effect, cost - effectiveness, availability, and exhaust emission standards [41]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is more suitable for high - end jewelry markets due to its high density, good ductility, and chemical stability. Palladium has limited use in jewelry due to its hardness and tendency to darken [45]. - **Other Industrial Applications**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in chemical industry, glass manufacturing, electronics, medical, hydrogen energy, and other fields. Their application in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [46][48]. 3.2.4 Investment Channels - Platinum can be invested in through physical products (platinum bars, platinum coins), financial products (platinum futures contracts, platinum ETFs), and platinum - related stocks. The investment demand for platinum is increasing, especially in the context of high gold prices [50].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Platinum Week has evolved into a global platform for the platinum group metals industry, marking its fifth anniversary with a commemorative medal that symbolizes its achievements and growth [1][16] - The event has successfully transitioned from a regional gathering to the third global hub for platinum, attracting significant international participation and showcasing China's increasing influence in the industry [5][10] - The first Shanghai Platinum Week in 2021 attracted 780 attendees and reached 40,000 online viewers, establishing a voice for China's platinum group metals sector [3][4] Group 2 - The second Shanghai Platinum Week in 2022 utilized a hybrid model to overcome pandemic challenges, while the third event in 2023 saw participation from 37 exhibitors and 500 representatives, with over 770,000 online views [4][12] - The 2024 event highlighted China's dominance in the global platinum market, with imports accounting for 41% of global demand and significant participation from international mining and financial institutions [5][6] - The 2025 Shanghai Platinum Week is positioned to address global challenges and promote cooperation in the platinum industry, featuring multiple forums and discussions on the future of platinum applications [11][15] Group 3 - The Shanghai Platinum Week has become a platform for innovation, with discussions on the development of platinum futures and the introduction of new trading standards [7][10] - The event has facilitated strategic partnerships, such as the collaboration between China National Gold Group and the World Platinum Investment Council, aimed at enhancing resource synergy and innovation in the platinum market [15] - The growing demand for platinum in hydrogen energy and automotive sectors is expected to drive future growth, with China leading in hydrogen production and consumption [14][12]

Group 1: Market Overview - The platinum group metals (PGMs) market is unexpectedly stabilizing in 2024 after years of volatility, with prices rebounding and fluctuating within a narrow range despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] - Demand for the five PGMs exceeds supply, with a projected 16% of global PGM production facing losses due to limited capital investment and corporate restructuring [2][18] Group 2: Production and Supply - In 2024, global PGM production is estimated to be significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels, with mining supply of 5E PGMs remaining constrained [2][11] - Recycling supply of PGMs is expected to increase by 6% year-on-year, driven by recovery in catalytic converter recycling, although it remains 24% below 2021 levels [2] Group 3: Price Projections - Platinum prices are projected to rise to $970 per ounce in 2025, supported by supply shortages, but the increase will be limited due to substantial above-ground stocks [3][18] - Palladium prices are expected to decline by 5% to $930 per ounce in 2025 due to weakening demand from the automotive sector [4][19] - Rhodium prices are forecasted to increase by 8% to $5,000 per ounce in 2025, supported by limited inventory [5][20] - Iridium prices are anticipated to drop by 14% to $4,100 per ounce in 2025, reflecting a high base from 2024 [6][20] - Ruthenium prices are expected to rise by 26% to $550 per ounce in 2025, driven by strong demand [7][21] Group 4: Demand Dynamics - The automotive sector's total demand for PGMs is projected to decline for the first time since 2020, with a 4% decrease in demand for platinum, palladium, and rhodium due to the slowdown in electrification [11] - Industrial demand for PGMs shows significant divergence, with platinum and palladium demand decreasing due to soft chemical industry demand, while rhodium demand is rebounding due to recovery in the glass industry [11][12] - Iridium demand is expected to reach a historical high, driven by expansion in the chemical industry and increased applications in electronics [12]