Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium have surged significantly, following the increases in gold and silver prices, with platinum futures reaching a limit up of 7% and palladium up by 4.73% on December 15, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - Platinum futures (PT2606) closed at 482.40, marking a 7% increase from the previous day, with a trading range of 457.00 to 482.40 [2] - Palladium futures (PD2606) closed at 407.60, reflecting a 4.73% rise, with a trading range of 390.00 to 413.65 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Platinum prices have shown a cumulative increase of 98.67% since the beginning of the year, driven by three distinct waves of price increases [3][4] - The first wave occurred from May to July due to production disruptions in South Africa, where platinum output fell by 13% year-on-year in Q1 2025, leading to a tight supply in the international market [4] - The second wave from late August to mid-October was influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions, enhancing platinum's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply of platinum is expected to decline by 6% in 2025, primarily due to ongoing power shortages and rising costs in South Africa, which produces 70% of the world's platinum [4][5] - Industrial demand for platinum is projected to grow, with the automotive sector maintaining a significant demand for catalytic converters, expected to reach 95 tons in 2025 [5] - The global platinum market is anticipated to face a third consecutive year of shortage, with a projected deficit of 30 tons in 2025 [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that both platinum and palladium prices have potential for further increases due to their previous low valuations and ongoing supply shortages [5][6] - The structural shortage of platinum is expected to support higher price levels, with the gold-to-platinum ratio currently above historical norms [6] - However, potential risks include delays in the European fuel vehicle ban, which could benefit palladium, and the recovery of the recycling market, which may increase platinum supply [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The global platinum market is entering a prolonged shortage cycle, driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly from China, which is expected to continue for the next five years [1][2]. Supply Side - Global platinum supply is heavily reliant on South Africa, with a mining expansion cycle lasting three years, making it difficult to quickly respond to strong market demand [1]. - The industry is facing a structural deficit that is likely to persist in the coming years, exacerbating supply tensions [1]. Demand Side - China has emerged as a key driver of global platinum demand growth, with significant increases in jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors [1]. - Jewelry demand in China saw a remarkable increase, with platinum jewelry processing volume more than doubling in Q2 2023, and the demand scale for the first half of 2025 approaching the total for 2023 and 2024 [2]. - Investment demand is also robust, with a cumulative growth of 19% in physical platinum investment demand from 2022 to 2024, and a notable shift towards small-scale investment products, which saw a demand increase of over six times year-on-year in Q2 2025 [2]. Market Dynamics - The purchasing behavior in China has shifted from being negatively correlated with prices to being driven by genuine demand, even as platinum prices remain relatively high [2]. - The long-term outlook for platinum investment is positive, with expectations of continued shortages until 2029, and an optimistic view on platinum becoming a growth highlight in the precious metals market [2].

Core Insights - The global platinum supply is projected to decrease by 10% year-on-year in Q1 2025, totaling 45.3 tons [1] - Demand for platinum is expected to increase by 10% year-on-year, reaching 70.7 tons [1] - A platinum shortage is anticipated for the third consecutive year in 2025, with a projected deficit of 30 tons [1] Supply Summary - Global platinum supply in Q1 2025 is 45.3 tons, reflecting a 10% decrease compared to the previous year [1] Demand Summary - Platinum demand is forecasted to grow by 10% year-on-year, amounting to 70.7 tons in Q1 2025 [1] Market Outlook - The market is expected to face a platinum shortfall for the third consecutive year in 2025, with a significant gap of 30 tons [1]