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铅:旺季预期支撑,沪铅连三进口盈亏
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The lead market is supported by peak - season expectations, and the lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,075 yuan/ton, down 0.90%; the LME 3M electronic lead contract closed at 2,017 dollars/ton, down 0.98%. The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 52,461 lots, an increase of 21,564 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 6,377 lots, a decrease of 761 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 53,479 lots, an increase of 945 lots; the LME lead open interest was 146,681 lots, a decrease of 1,466 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 33.62 dollars/ton, a decrease of 11.04 dollars/ton. The PB00 - PB01 spread was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 780.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 220.57 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of the third - consecutive Shanghai lead contract was - 591.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 201.81 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 52,901 tons, an increase of 2,268 tons; the LME lead inventory was 249,375 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 54,475 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 408 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton [1] News - Trump may expand the 50% copper tariff to semi - finished products, which may impact the construction of the US power grid and data centers [1] Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, with the range of values being integers in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [1]
铅:预期支撑,伦铅持仓量(手)151635
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:01
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,210 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the previous day, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,057 dollars/ton, down 0.29% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 29,406 lots, an increase of 5,076 lots, and the LME lead trading volume was 3,570 lots, a decrease of 1,679 lots [1]. - **Open Interests**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 51,045 lots, a decrease of 627 lots, and the LME lead open interest was 151,635 lots, a decrease of 85 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium/discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -55 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium/discount was -24.63 dollars/ton, up 1.84 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -793.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.76 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three was -664.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.65 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventories**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 46,814 tons, an increase of 375 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 259,975 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons [1]. - **Other Data**: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 65,075 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,925 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -364 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton [1]. [News] - Trump's first - wave tax letter: 14 countries including Japan and South Korea will face tariffs ranging from 25% to 40%, effective August 1st, and the EU may be close to an agreement [1]. [Trend Intensity] - The lead trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, and the strength levels classified as weak, moderately weak, neutral, moderately strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [1].
铅:中期偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 02:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead in the medium - term is relatively strong [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a fundamental tracking of lead, including price, trading volume, open interest, premium and discount, inventory and other data, and also mentions relevant news events and the trend strength of lead [1][2] Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,920 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,995 dollars/ton, up 0.33% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 26,206 lots, down 672; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,836 lots, up 157 [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 28,273 lots, down 5,834; the open interest of LME lead was 154,031 lots, up 2 [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 1 lead premium was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 28.49 dollars/ton, up 2.72 [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 43,760 tons, down 100; LME lead inventory was 281,025 tons, down 3,050 [1] News - Iran attacked a US military base in Qatar without mentioning an attack on energy infrastructure. Trump thanked Iran for "advance notice" and said Iran's response was "very weak", causing crude oil prices to plunge during intraday trading. Trump also said that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire to be implemented in phases, which was confirmed by Iranian officials. Israeli media reported that Israel informed Iran that it sought to end the conflict "within a few days" [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of lead is 0, indicating a neutral position, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [2]
铅:低位企稳
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 02:07
Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is stabilizing at a low level [1]. - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,670 yuan/ton, up 0.60%; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 1,986 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 35,010 lots, an increase of 6,469 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,836 lots, an increase of 97 lots. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 52,496 lots, a decrease of 3,051 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 147,271 lots, an increase of 4,033 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -15 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -19.72 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.45 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 41,698 tons, an increase of 1,382 tons; the LME lead inventory was 281,550 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 47,825 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons [1]. - **Others**: The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the integrated profit and loss of secondary lead was -571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1]. 2. News - The US May ADP employment data was "disappointing", with only 37,000 new jobs, the lowest since March 2023. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US May ISM services PMI contracted for the first time in a year, with a sharp drop in demand and high prices [2]. - Despite tariff threats, the eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly increased, but demand in Germany and France continued to be weak [2].
铅:区间运行,沪铅连三进口盈亏
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-04 01:54
Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - Lead is expected to operate within a range [1] Detailed Summary Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,570 yuan/ton, down 0.30%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,986 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 28,541 lots, a decrease of 24,390 lots, and the open interest was 55,547 lots, an increase of 2,217 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 4,836 lots, an increase of 97 lots, and the open interest was 143,238 lots, a decrease of 1,723 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -20 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -19.72 dollars/ton, up 2.45 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 40,316 tons, an increase of 897 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 283,150 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 49,425 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons [1] - **Other Indicators**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -891.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.74 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three contracts was -795.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 157.38 yuan/ton [1] News - Trump announced on June 4 that steel and aluminum tariffs would be raised to 50%, while tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the UK would remain at 25%. The White House confirmed sending letters to trade negotiation partners to "submit plans." Media previously reported that Trump issued an ultimatum, hoping that countries would provide their "best trade plans" by Wednesday [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]