2025 年 07 月 14 日 铅：旺季预期支撑 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17075 | -0.90% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2017 | -0.98% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 52461 | 21564 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 6377 | -761 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 53479 | 945 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 146681 | -1466 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -25 | 30 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -33.62 | -11.04 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -30 | -5 | 进口升贴水（ ...

2025 年 07 月 08 日 铅：预期支撑 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17210 | -0.49% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2057 | -0.29% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 29406 | 5076 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3570 | -1679 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 51045 | -627 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 151635 | -85 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -55 | -15 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -24.63 | 1.84 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -45 | 10 | 进口升贴水（美 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lead in the medium - term is relatively strong [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a fundamental tracking of lead, including price, trading volume, open interest, premium and discount, inventory and other data, and also mentions relevant news events and the trend strength of lead [1][2] Summary by Relevant Contents Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,920 yuan/ton, up 0.65%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,995 dollars/ton, up 0.33% [1] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 26,206 lots, down 672; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,836 lots, up 157 [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 28,273 lots, down 5,834; the open interest of LME lead was 154,031 lots, up 2 [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 1 lead premium was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was - 28.49 dollars/ton, up 2.72 [1] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 43,760 tons, down 100; LME lead inventory was 281,025 tons, down 3,050 [1] News - Iran attacked a US military base in Qatar without mentioning an attack on energy infrastructure. Trump thanked Iran for "advance notice" and said Iran's response was "very weak", causing crude oil prices to plunge during intraday trading. Trump also said that Israel and Iran had fully agreed to a comprehensive cease - fire to be implemented in phases, which was confirmed by Iranian officials. Israeli media reported that Israel informed Iran that it sought to end the conflict "within a few days" [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of lead is 0, indicating a neutral position, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is stabilizing at a low level [1]. - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,670 yuan/ton, up 0.60%; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 1,986 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 35,010 lots, an increase of 6,469 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,836 lots, an increase of 97 lots. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 52,496 lots, a decrease of 3,051 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 147,271 lots, an increase of 4,033 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -15 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -19.72 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.45 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 41,698 tons, an increase of 1,382 tons; the LME lead inventory was 281,550 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 47,825 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons [1]. - **Others**: The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the integrated profit and loss of secondary lead was -571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1]. 2. News - The US May ADP employment data was "disappointing", with only 37,000 new jobs, the lowest since March 2023. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US May ISM services PMI contracted for the first time in a year, with a sharp drop in demand and high prices [2]. - Despite tariff threats, the eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly increased, but demand in Germany and France continued to be weak [2].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - Lead is expected to operate within a range [1] Detailed Summary Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,570 yuan/ton, down 0.30%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,986 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 28,541 lots, a decrease of 24,390 lots, and the open interest was 55,547 lots, an increase of 2,217 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 4,836 lots, an increase of 97 lots, and the open interest was 143,238 lots, a decrease of 1,723 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -20 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -19.72 dollars/ton, up 2.45 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 40,316 tons, an increase of 897 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 283,150 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 49,425 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons [1] - **Other Indicators**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -891.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 116.74 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three contracts was -795.02 yuan/ton, a decrease of 157.38 yuan/ton [1] News - Trump announced on June 4 that steel and aluminum tariffs would be raised to 50%, while tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the UK would remain at 25%. The White House confirmed sending letters to trade negotiation partners to "submit plans." Media previously reported that Trump issued an ultimatum, hoping that countries would provide their "best trade plans" by Wednesday [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]