Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The LME lead inventory has decreased, providing support for lead prices [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 16,775 yuan/ton, down 0.45%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,981 dollars/ton, also down 0.45% [1]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 30,595 lots, a decrease of 2,006 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,833 lots, a decrease of 1,426 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 49,496 lots, a decrease of 1,711 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 159,114 lots, a decrease of 522 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -43.24 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.37 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 62,225 tons, an increase of 441 tons; LME lead inventory was 260,475 tons, a decrease of 625 tons [1]. - **Scrap Battery and Refined Lead**: The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -486.03 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.91 yuan/ton; the SHFE lead continuous third - month import profit and loss was -536.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.92 yuan/ton [1]. News - The US PPI in July increased by 0.9% month - on - month, the highest monthly growth rate in three years, far exceeding the Wall Street expectation of 0.2%, indicating that enterprises are passing on the rising import costs related to tariffs [1]. - Trump told Zelensky that if everything goes well, a tri - lateral meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be held [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal demand for lead during the peak season is not evident, and domestic inventories have not started to decline. However, the battery and terminal industries are in the transition phase between the off - season and peak season. Although the terminal consumption has not fully recovered, the seasonal stocking demand in the electric bicycle sector has laid the foundation for the traditional peak season in August. Therefore, it is advisable to gradually attempt to buy on dips for hedging, with the hedging purchase range between 16,000 yuan/ton and 16,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.86/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead scrap - refined spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,133 lots, a decrease of 6,065 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 72,083 lots, an increase of 753 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,755 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the same period last week. As of August 5, the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SMM1 lead price dropped by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers offered discounts of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or 100 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering a 120 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at par with the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Jiangxi, suppliers offered a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. Due to the weakening of lead prices, downstream buyers were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and the trading volume in some regions improved compared to the previous day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some primary lead production areas, but overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season demand signal is not obvious. However, with the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous sector may not decline further and are expected to remain in a range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On July 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.31 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,985 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 47,978 lots, down 24,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 64,534 lots, down 6,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,015 yuan/ton and a low of 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,870 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures market was weakly volatile, and different regions had different pricing strategies. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of July 29, the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply and demand of lead are both weak, while the medium - term outlook is bullish [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,765 yuan/ton, down 0.09%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead futures was 1,974 US dollars/ton, down 0.35%. The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 27,538 lots, a decrease of 3,315 lots; the trading volume of LME lead futures was 4,570 lots, an increase of 285 lots. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 49,567 lots, a decrease of 408 lots; the open interest of LME lead futures was 146,481 lots, a decrease of 670 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 22.25 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1.25 US dollars/ton. The PB00 - PB01 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, unchanged; the import premium was 105 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 41,799 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 279,975 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 93,700 tons, an increase of 48,700 tons [1]. - **Other Indicators**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 852.42 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.16 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous - three contract was - 745.64 yuan/ton, an increase of 23.62 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 502 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 News - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and changed from an increase to a decrease month - on - month. The year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.3%. China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 4.8% year - on - year, while imports decreased by 3.4%. In May, China's rare earth export volume increased by nearly 23% month - on - month, soybean import volume increased by 129% month - on - month, reaching a record high, and coal and oil import volumes decreased [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 1, indicating a neutral - to - bullish trend [2].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is stabilizing at a low level [1]. - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,670 yuan/ton, up 0.60%; the closing price of the 3M electronic disk of LME lead was 1,986 dollars/ton, up 0.25% [1]. - **Volumes and Positions**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 35,010 lots, an increase of 6,469 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 4,836 lots, an increase of 97 lots. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 52,496 lots, a decrease of 3,051 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 147,271 lots, an increase of 4,033 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -15 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -19.72 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.45 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 41,698 tons, an increase of 1,382 tons; the LME lead inventory was 281,550 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 47,825 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons [1]. - **Others**: The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10,125 yuan/ton, unchanged; the integrated profit and loss of secondary lead was -571 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1]. 2. News - The US May ADP employment data was "disappointing", with only 37,000 new jobs, the lowest since March 2023. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates. The US May ISM services PMI contracted for the first time in a year, with a sharp drop in demand and high prices [2]. - Despite tariff threats, the eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly increased, but demand in Germany and France continued to be weak [2].