沪铅震荡偏弱延续 基本面变化 加工费：2025年12月铅精矿进口量约14.9万吨，环比增加35.8%，同比增加24.63%。铅矿进口量连续两个月环比走高，不过国内 冬季铅精矿市场需求高涨，国内矿端紧张格局紧张延续，SMM显示国内外铅精矿加工费低位进一步回落。2月国内月度加工200- 300元/吨，月度环比下降50元/吨；进口月度加工费位-160--140美元/干吨，月度环比下降5美元/干吨。现货加工费方面，国内 铅矿周度加工费为200-300元/吨，周度环比下降50元/吨；进口周度加工费为-160--140美元/干吨，周度环比下降5美元/干吨。 供应：SMM显示：2025年12月原生铅产量为33.27万吨，环比增加1.56%，同比增加1.56%，当月产量高于预期；2025年12月再生 精铅产量为26.84万吨，环比减少9.35%，同比增加0.83%。上周SMM三省原生铅冶炼厂开工率66.85%，周环比下滑0.19%。河南地 区开工稳定，个别小厂产量边际波动；湖南地区此前粗铅检修的冶炼厂生产恢复后电解铅产量小幅提产至稳定生产。另一冶炼 厂粗铅检修后电解铅产量周度下滑，但暂未完全停产；云南地区冶炼厂生产维持稳定； ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of lead ingots is increasing, with the apparent supply of domestic lead ingots reaching 72.39 million tons in November 2025, a year - on - year increase of 9.9%. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is marginally warming up, but the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Currently, the lead price is near the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the contradiction between long and short positions of macro funds and industrial seat funds is intensifying. Although the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - loose cycle, the subsequent trend of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Lead Index closed down 0.37% at 17,473 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 122,500 lots. The LME 3S lead price fell 8 to $2,075/ton, with a total position of 174,800 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17,300 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,100 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap price difference of 200 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [11] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [11] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton. The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. At the recycled end, the recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons, the weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77% [11] 2. Primary Supply - **Imports**: In November 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 109,800 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.7% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 1,278,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.3%. The net import of silver concentrates in November was 180,900 physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.5% and a month - on - month increase of 21.1%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,686,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.2% [15] - **Production**: In December 2025, China's lead concentrate production was 126,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.54%. From January to December, the total production of lead concentrates was 1,658,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.89% [17] - **Total Supply**: In November 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 274,900 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.09% and a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. From January to November, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 2,973,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.62% [19] - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 46,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 483,000 tons, equivalent to 33.6 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - $145/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 300 yuan/metal ton [21][23] - **Smelting Operating Rate and Output**: The primary operating rate was 67.04%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 24,000 tons. In December 2025, China's primary lead production was 332,700 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 1.56%. From January to December, the total production of primary lead ingots was 3,847,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.32% [26] 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Weekly Production**: The recycled lead scrap inventory was 93,000 tons. The weekly production of recycled lead ingots was 46,000 tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 23,000 tons. In December 2025, China's recycled lead production was 354,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%. From January to December, the total production of recycled lead ingots was 3,962,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.52% [31][33] - **Imports and Total Supply**: In November 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 23,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 262.0% and a month - on - month increase of 52.6%. From January to November, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 118,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.4%. The total domestic supply of lead ingots in November was 723,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a month - on - month increase of 5.3%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 7,241,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4% [35] 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Operating Rate and Apparent Demand**: The demand - side lead - acid battery operating rate was 70.77%. In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic lead ingots was 7,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.6% [38] - **Battery Exports**: In November 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,530,070 units, a year - on - year decrease of 22.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%. From January to November, the total net lead - containing export of batteries was 19,680,580 units, and the cumulative net lead - containing export of batteries decreased by 10.47% year - on - year [41] - **Inventory Days**: In December 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories increased from 20.9 days to 21.5 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 40.7 days to 43.6 days [43] - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the production decline of electric bicycles directly affected the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new - energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries [47][49][52] 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 700 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference showed a shortage of - 8,400 tons [61] - **Overseas Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 5,400 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference showed a surplus of 98,400 tons [64] 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,300 tons, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 27,400 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from January 12. The domestic primary basis was - 175 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - month contract was - 60 yuan/ton [69] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 211,400 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 48,700 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.58/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $107.3/ton [71] - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London ratio was 1.215, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 192.55 yuan/ton [74] - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased, the investment fund in LME lead turned net long, and the net short position of commercial enterprises increased. The contradiction between speculative funds and industrial funds in terms of positions intensified [77]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rebound momentum of lead is insufficient, and it may continue to fluctuate. The short - term supply pressure of lead is relieved, and the low domestic inventory continuing to decline is beneficial to lead prices. However, due to the year - end closing of downstream enterprises, weak demand, and the pressure of imported lead inflow, there is a lack of continuous upward momentum in the domestic market. But with the increase in costs, there is strong support at the bottom, so it may move in a fluctuating manner. Later, attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead and downstream demand [1][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - In 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrate in physical quantity, a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was at the average level in recent years. Due to the high demand in the domestic lead concentrate market in winter, the tight situation at the domestic mine end intensified, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates further declined at low levels [2] - In December, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, a monthly decrease of 20 US dollars. In terms of spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 150 - - 120 US dollars/dry ton, also with no change week - on - week [2] Supply - In November, the national electrolytic lead output increased slightly, a month - on - month increase of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.61 percentage points; the output of recycled refined lead increased by 8.5% month - on - month and 10.13% year - on - year [3] - Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces was 67.35%, a month - on - month increase of 1.82%. The operating rates in Henan and Hunan remained stable. Some smelters in Hunan mentioned that environmental inspections affected the start - up of crude lead, but the electrolytic volume last week could maintain stable production. It is expected that the electrolytic lead output may decline slightly this week. A medium - large - scale smelter in Yunnan continued to increase production after the end of maintenance, and a small - scale smelter resumed production and slightly increased production. Other smelters maintained normal operation. A smelter in East China that had stopped production for maintenance has not resumed yet and is expected to resume at the end of December [3] - The weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 41.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75%. Due to severe air pollution in many places in East and North China last week, environmental management was implemented. Anhui smelting enterprises significantly reduced production, and the regional operating rate decreased by 11.88% month - on - month; the operating rates in Henan and Jiangsu remained the same as last week. A recycled lead smelter in Inner Mongolia temporarily stopped production due to equipment part replacement and resumed normal production last week, and the regional operating rate rebounded, but local smelters said that the pressure on production due to raw material supply shortages still existed [3] - This week, the price of waste batteries continued to rise, the profit of recycled lead enterprises narrowed, and combined with the large environmental protection disturbances of recycled lead, the supply pressure of recycled lead was relieved. In terms of imports, the Shanghai - London price ratio improved, the import window for refined lead remained open, and the profit increased [3] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 74.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. Since December, the new national standard for electric bicycles has been officially implemented in the terminal market, but the actual consumption has not improved significantly due to the increase in the weight of the whole vehicle. Instead, due to consumers being in the adaptation period, the sales volume of the whole vehicle declined, dragging down battery consumption. Some lead - acid battery enterprises have slightly reduced production or planned to reduce production, dragging down the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises this week [4] - The automotive battery market has entered the traditional consumption peak season. Except for some export - oriented enterprises with poor orders due to factors such as tariffs, the operating rates of other medium - and large - scale enterprises are relatively stable. Near the end of the year, traders and battery enterprises are closing their accounts at the end of the year, and the inventory preparation of battery enterprises for the New Year's Day holiday is average. The spot trading is weak, and most downstream enterprises have stopped purchasing, resulting in low market transactions [4] Spot - As of the week of December 19, the domestic lead spot basis premium increased, and the lead spot basis was at a premium of 130 yuan at the end of last week. The LME lead spot continued to be in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 45.23 US dollars at the end of last week [4] Inventory - As of the week of December 18, the LME lead weekly inventory increased by 23,875 tons to 258,600 tons, and the LME inventory continued to rise from a high level; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 4,352 tons to 27,900 tons. As of December 22, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five places decreased to 19,100 tons, and the inventory continued to decline, reaching an absolute low level in the past four years [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is in a stage of divergence between "current shortage and expected surplus." The low inventory and cost - loss bottom of secondary lead limit the downside, but without new consumption drivers and with a confirmed long - term surplus, the price will maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [3] - In the short - term, the sharp increase in LME inventory eases the overseas squeeze risk and puts pressure on LME lead. In the domestic market, the low inventory leads to a "reluctance to sell" sentiment, but the upside pressure level is difficult to break through [7] - In the long - term, the core contradiction lies in the mismatch between the profit - repair cycle of the secondary lead industry and the downstream demand recession cycle. If the downstream lithium - battery substitution is faster than the supply clearance, the lead price center will move down in the long run [9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Strong current situation: Domestic lead ingot social inventory and smelter inventory have both reached 15 - month lows, offsetting the year - end weak consumption. The supply side shows a structural differentiation, with primary lead production increasing after maintenance and secondary lead production decreasing due to raw material shortages and environmental protection [3] - Weak expectations: The market expects a supply surplus in 2026, with overseas supply growth exceeding demand growth [3] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: Range operation (buy low and sell high). Buy long positions in the range of 16,750 - 16,800 with a stop - loss at 16,600, and take profit and reverse to short positions around 17,100 [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to cross - market reverse arbitrage (long SHFE and short LME) [9] - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle options. Sell put options with an exercise price of 16500 and call options with an exercise price of 17300 [9] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell 75% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 17400 to hedge against price drops [10] - For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory, buy 50% of the Shanghai lead main - contract futures at 16500 to hedge against price increases [10] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely positive drivers**: Supply disruptions intensify as the Australian Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter's union votes for industrial action, and the weakening US dollar provides a valuation - repair window for non - ferrous metals [11] - **Likely negative drivers**: A sharp increase in LME inventory and the cooling of interest - rate cut expectations [12] - **Spot transaction information**: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16725 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the average price of recycled lead is 16775 yuan/ton, up 0.45% [13] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - **Domestic**: The release of China's one - year loan prime rate (LPR) on December 22; monitor whether the lead ingot social inventory will show an inflection point of accumulation due to year - end account closing [13] - **International**: The Christmas holiday in Europe and America on December 25 may cause abnormal market fluctuations; follow the progress of the strike at the Nyrstar Port Pirie smelter [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price closed at 16880 yuan/ton this week. Profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The domestic basis structure is stable, and the monthly - spread structure of Shanghai lead maintains a C - structure [15][17] - **International market**: As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead was at 1973 US dollars/ton. The LME lead maintains a C - structure [20][38] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Analyze the processing fees of primary lead and the relationship between lead - concentrate monthly production and processing fees [43] 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - Examine the import - profit and loss and import volume of lead concentrates, as well as the seasonal patterns of refined - lead and lead - battery imports and exports [45] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of domestic lead ingot total supply and actual consumption [50] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Examine the monthly production of lead concentrates, electrolytic lead, and secondary refined lead, as well as the seasonal patterns of global lead - mine and refined - lead production [52][54][59] 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - Analyze the seasonal patterns of lead - battery开工率, exports, and imports, and the inventory days of lead - battery enterprises and dealers [61][64]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products, including electrolytic copper, aluminum, alumina, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium carbonate, along with their spot - futures spreads and changes [1]. 3. Summary by Metal Category Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 85335, down 1255; SMM flat - water copper premium is - 5, up 40 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 21300, down 140; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 20, down 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 2840, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price is 318 dollars, unchanged [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 17325, up 75; SMM 1 lead ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 125, up 45. Recycled refined lead average price is 17275, up 100; refined - scrap spread is 50, down 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change of 20, while the average price data is not fully shown [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 281300, down 4100; SMM 1 tin premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 520, up 150. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 269300, down 4100; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.73% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 119950, down 1000; 1 imported nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 400, unchanged. SMM electrowon nickel average price is 119650, down 950; SMM electrowon nickel premium is 100, up 50. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 122350, down 800; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium to Shanghai nickel contract is 2800, up 200 [1]. Silicon - The average price of a certain silicon - related product is 9050, unchanged; its premium is 1490, up 190 [1]. Polysilicon - N - type polysilicon re - feedstock average price is 80500, down 400; N - type polysilicon dense material average price is 3320, up 1140 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 78300, the difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200, unchanged. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price data is not fully shown; battery - grade lithium carbonate premium to the current - month futures at 10:15 has a change, but the specific price data is not fully shown [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, with electrolytic lead supply rising to 33.47 tons and recycled refined lead supply increasing to 28.58 tons. However, the import window for lead ingots is closed, and battery consumption remains resilient. As a result, social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [2][70] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Lead Market Review - In October, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated strongly, reaching a mid - month high of 17,660 yuan/ton and finally closing at 17,390 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.66%. London lead continued to oscillate widely, closing at 2,025 US dollars/ton at the end of October, with a monthly increase of 1.96% [7] II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to August 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 295.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.29%. It is predicted that global lead mine supply will grow by 0.7% to 457 tons in 2025 and 2.2% to 467 tons in 2026. In China, the lead concentrate output from January to September was 124.91 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.54%. With the cold weather, the monthly output is expected to decline month - on - month but remain positive year - on - year [10][11] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and silver concentrate imports decline month - on - month**: In November, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 350 yuan/metal ton, down 50 yuan/metal ton month - on - month. The average import processing fee decreased as well. In September, lead concentrate imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. Silver concentrate imports in September decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and future imports are expected to be under pressure [17][18] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead output was 881.3 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.31%. It is predicted that global refined lead output will increase by 2% to 1,334 tons in 2025 and 0.98% to 1,347.2 tons in 2026 [22] - **Refineries are in a state of reduction and resumption, and the monthly supply of electrolytic lead continues to rise**: In October, electrolytic lead output was 32.6 tons. In November, with the resumption of production in multiple regions, the output is expected to increase to 33.47 tons [27] - **The price of waste batteries is stable with a slight increase, and the supply of recycled lead increases marginally**: In October, the average price of waste batteries increased slightly. The output of recycled refined lead in October was 27.29 tons. In November, with the resumption of production of refineries and the output of new capacities, the output is expected to increase to 28.58 tons [33][34] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to August 2025, global refined lead consumption was 875.6 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.2%. It is predicted that global refined lead demand will grow by 1.8% to 1,325 tons in 2025 and 0.9% to 1,337 tons in 2026. The overseas lead - acid battery market has some resilience but is difficult to improve significantly [45][46] - **At the end of the month, battery enterprises cut production, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises declined**: In October, the operating rate of battery enterprises first rose and then fell. In November, it is expected to rise slightly but not significantly [48][49] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures put pressure on battery exports**: In September, lead exports decreased month - on - month, and imports increased. Battery exports decreased. It is expected that lead exports will remain low in October, and imports will increase significantly [50][51] - **Terminal growth is slow, and energy storage performs well**: In the automotive sector, production and sales are growing well. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard is expected to increase lead consumption. The energy storage battery market continues to grow [58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from High Levels - In October, LME inventory first increased and then decreased, and the end - of - year high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve significantly. Social inventory continued to decline in October and is expected to stop falling and rise in November [64] III. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead is expected to increase in November, but the import window for lead ingots is closed. Battery consumption remains resilient. Social inventory is expected to rise slightly, and the lead price is likely to remain in a high - level oscillatory pattern in November [70]

Group 1: Core View - The continuous decrease in internal and external lead inventories supports the price [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Price and Volume - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,019 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.30% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 39,452 lots, a decrease of 6,873; the trading volume of LME lead was 6,134 lots, an increase of 299 [1] - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 69,287 lots, a decrease of 4,231; the open interest of LME lead was 153,088 lots, an increase of 318 [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -35.12 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.12 [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5; the import premium was 90 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Import Profit and Loss - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -188.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.3; the import profit and loss of the third - consecutive Shanghai lead futures contract was -138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.43 [1] Inventory - The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 21,645 tons, a decrease of 1,352; the LME lead inventory was 224,175 tons, a decrease of 700 [1] - The LME lead cancelled warrants were 141,425 tons, a decrease of 5,025 [1] Other Data - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 17,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 160 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Group 3: News - Xi Jinping met with US President Trump in Busan, and the China - US economic and trade teams reached consensus on three aspects of achievements [1] - The European Central Bank "stood pat" for the third time, keeping the deposit rate at 2% unchanged, and the economic resilience withstood the trade headwinds [1] Group 4: Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The lead market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations. The cost side supports the lead price, but the supply is gradually recovering while the demand fails to meet expectations, increasing the pressure for the lead price to fall after a rise [2][67][68] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Lead Market Review - In September, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated greatly. It rose above 17,000 yuan/ton mid - month due to pre - holiday stocking but fell at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.36%. The center of the London lead price shifted slightly upward, with a monthly decrease of 0.55% [7] 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to July 2025, the global lead concentrate output was 257.5 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.75%. Overseas output is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons, and domestic output is expected to increase by about 70,000 tons [9][10] - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In October, domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees decreased. The import volume of lead concentrate and silver concentrate increased in August. The demand for silver concentrate imports is expected to remain high [15][16] 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead output was 7.702 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The annual output is expected to be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [18] - **Repairing smelters resume production, and electrolytic lead output recovers in October**: In September, electrolytic lead output was 327,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 335,000 tons in October [23] - **The price adjustment space of waste batteries is limited, and the improvement of smelter profits is beneficial to supply recovery**: In September, the price of waste batteries stopped falling and stabilized. The output of secondary refined lead in September was 236,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 256,100 tons in October [28][29] 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to July 2025, global refined lead consumption was 7.676 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.46%. The annual demand is expected to reach 13.19 million tons, with a surplus of 82,000 tons [39] - **Lead battery operation is stable, and the peak consumption season is weak**: In September, the operating rate of lead battery enterprises was slightly better year - on - year but still did not meet expectations. After the holiday, the operating rate will gradually return to the pre - holiday level [42][43] - **The Shanghai - London ratio is favorable for lead product imports, and high overseas tariffs and anti - dumping measures suppress battery exports**: In August, the export volume of refined lead increased, but it is expected to remain low in September. The import volume of refined lead increased, and the export of batteries was under pressure [44][45] - **The terminal sector demand growth is slow, and sector performance is differentiated**: The demand for lead batteries in the automotive and electric bicycle sectors is relatively stable, and the demand in the energy storage sector is expected to grow [57][58][60] 2.4 Global Visible Inventory Drops from a High Level - In September, LME inventory continued to decline from a high level, and social inventory also dropped from a high level. However, inventory is expected to increase again due to the supply - demand mismatch [63][66] 3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The lead ore shortage situation is difficult to ease in the fourth quarter, supporting the lead price. The supply of electrolytic lead and secondary lead is expected to increase in October, but the demand is less than expected. Overall, the lead price is under increasing pressure to fall after a rise [67][68]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index fluctuated upwards, with the total position decreasing. The LME Lead also rose. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories declined continuously. Considering the strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals recently, the sector sentiment is positive. It is expected that the Shanghai Lead will oscillate widely at a low level in the short term [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: From September 1st to October 10th, the Shanghai Lead Index rose 1.57% to 17,140 yuan/ton, with a 0.46 - thousand - hand decrease in total positions. The LME Lead rose 1.63% to 2,026.5 dollars/ton. As of the report end, the SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,800 yuan/ton, the recycled refined lead average price was 16,775 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons [11]. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 94 thousand tons, the weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 10 thousand tons. The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62% [11]. - **Overall Outlook**: At the primary end, the visible lead ore inventory declined again, with a slower inventory accumulation rate than in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fees continued to decline. Although raw material shortages restricted primary smelting start - up, the start - up rate was still higher than in previous years. At the recycled end, the scrap inventory increased slightly, and the decline in raw material prices promoted the repair of recycled smelting profits, with a slight recovery in recycled start - up. The downstream battery enterprises' start - up was higher than in previous years. After the battery inventory pressure decreased, downstream purchases increased slightly. The domestic lead ingot factory and social inventories decreased continuously, and combined with the recent strong performance of precious metals and non - ferrous metals, the sector sentiment was good [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In August 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 134.8 thousand physical tons, a 15.9% year - on - year change and a 10.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 919.7 thousand physical tons, a 31.5% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of silver concentrates in August was 185 thousand physical tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 20.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1,191.1 thousand physical tons, a 6.3% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, China's lead concentrate production was 156.1 thousand metal tons, a 13.9% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total lead concentrate production was 1,097.7 thousand metal tons, an 11.8% cumulative year - on - year change. The net import of lead - containing ores in August was 154.9 thousand metal tons, a 15.8% year - on - year change and a 14.8% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 1,028.2 thousand metal tons, an 18.5% cumulative year - on - year change [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In August 2025, China's total lead concentrate supply was 311 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% year - on - year change and a 7.4% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative lead concentrate supply was 2,125.9 thousand metal tons, a 14.9% cumulative year - on - year change. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395.9 thousand tons, a 1.4% year - on - year change and a 4.1% month - on - month change. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2,256.5 thousand tons, a 4.6% cumulative year - on - year change [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: The lead concentrate port inventory was 17 thousand tons, and the factory inventory was 432 thousand tons (equivalent to 26.0 days). The lead concentrate import TC was - 110 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 350 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 66.49%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 3 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's primary lead production was 327.8 thousand tons, a 12.4% year - on - year change and a 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total primary lead ingot production was 2,860.9 thousand tons, an 8.3% cumulative year - on - year change [26]. 3. Recycled Supply - **Raw Materials and Output**: At the recycled end, the lead scrap inventory was 86.4 thousand tons. The weekly output of recycled lead ingots was 31.9 thousand tons, and the recycled ingot factory inventory was 9.8 thousand tons. In September 2025, China's recycled lead production was 317 thousand tons, a 5.5% year - on - year change and a - 1.0% month - on - month change. From January to September, the total recycled lead ingot production was 2,888.8 thousand tons, a 1.7% cumulative year - on - year change [31][33]. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In August 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 11.3 thousand tons, an - 86.1% year - on - year change and a - 10.5% month - on - month change. From January to August, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 67.8 thousand tons, a - 43.2% cumulative year - on - year change. In August, the domestic total lead ingot supply was 656.2 thousand tons, a - 5.4% year - on - year change and a 0.3% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply was 5,172.7 thousand tons, a 3.3% cumulative year - on - year change [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up and Demand**: The lead battery start - up rate was 71.62%. In August 2025, the apparent domestic lead ingot demand was 639.3 thousand tons, a - 5.3% year - on - year change and a - 1.9% month - on - month change. From January to August, the domestic cumulative apparent lead ingot demand was 5,117.7 thousand tons, a 1.6% cumulative year - on - year change [40]. - **Battery Exports**: In August 2025, the net export quantity of batteries was 1.78165 million, and the net export weight was 97.9 thousand tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 61.2 thousand tons, an - 11.3% year - on - year change and an - 8.2% month - on - month change. From January to August, the total net export of lead in batteries was 494.1 thousand tons, a - 4.4% cumulative year - on - year change [43]. - **Inventory Changes**: In August 2025, the lead battery finished product factory inventory decreased from 21.8 days to 20.5 days, and the dealer lead battery inventory days decreased from 44.6 days to 42 days [45]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway improved the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automotive sector, the contribution of lead demand was expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles were replacing lead - acid starting batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles led to high replacement demand, and the starting battery start - up rate remained relatively high. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drove the steady increase in lead - acid battery demand [49][51][54]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In August 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 16.9 thousand tons. From January to August, the domestic cumulative lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 55 thousand tons [63]. - **Overseas Balance**: In July 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 8 thousand tons. From January to July, the overseas cumulative refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 53.9 thousand tons [66]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory decreased to 35.8 thousand tons. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 30.1 thousand tons, the domestic primary basis was - 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - first - continuous contract spread was - 15 yuan/ton [71]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 236.1 thousand tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 49.6 thousand tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 37.3 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 74.2 dollars/ton [74]. - **Price Ratios and Profits**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.193, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 358.36 yuan/ton [77]. - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 net positions of Shanghai Lead turned slightly net short, the net long positions of LME Lead investment funds increased, and the net short positions of commercial enterprises increased. From a position perspective, the short - term guidance was bearish [80].

Core Insights - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,925 CNY/ton, while recycled refined lead averaged 16,850 CNY/ton, indicating a price differential of 75 CNY/ton for scrap lead-acid batteries priced at 9,975 CNY/ton [1] - On September 29, the lead futures market closed at 16,855 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.38%, and trading volume reached 76,219 lots [2] - The LME reported a registered lead warehouse stock of 197,275 tons, with a decrease of 600 tons in canceled warrants, totaling 21,550 tons [2] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is expected to maintain a tight balance in Q4, with some smelters in Hunan and Yunnan experiencing slight production declines due to insufficient raw material inventories [4] - The operating rate of recycled lead has been declining for six consecutive weeks, leading to weakened demand for scrap lead-acid batteries, which have seen a slight price stabilization after a drop [4] - The implementation of new national standards for electric bicycles in September has improved order conditions for some downstream companies, alongside stable demand in the energy storage battery market, suggesting a potential reduction in lead inventory [4] Transportation and Cost Factors - In Inner Mongolia, transportation vehicles are becoming tight due to the maturity of agricultural products, resulting in an increase in transportation costs by approximately 80 CNY/ton [3]