Group 1: Report Title and Investment Rating - Report Title: "Shanghai Lead May Face Adjustment" [1] - Investment Rating: Not provided Group 2: Core View - The supply of primary and recycled lead is increasing, but the peak - season demand has not started yet. The supply - demand situation of lead is weakening marginally. With the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices is increasing, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7] Group 3: Fundamental Changes Processing Fees - In May 2025, China imported 103,900 tons of lead concentrates, a 6% month - on - month decrease. The domestic lead concentrate imports continued to decline month - on - month but remained at a moderately high level. The supply of domestic concentrates became more tense, and the processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates continued to decline at a low level. In July, the domestic monthly processing fee was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan; the imported monthly processing fee was - 60 - - 30 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars. The domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 400 - 700 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week; the imported weekly processing fee was - 70 - - 40 US dollars/dry ton, also remaining flat week - on - week [3] Supply - In May 2025, the electrolytic lead output was 331,200 tons, a 3.53% month - on - month increase and a 14.7% year - on - year increase. In June (regular maintenance season), most enterprises planned to start maintenance after mid - June, and the reduction was obvious in late June. The output of recycled refined lead in May was 223,500 tons, significantly lower than expected, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease and a 16.5% year - on - year decrease. In June, the price of waste batteries rebounded, but the profit of recycled lead enterprises did not improve, and the scale of production reduction of recycled lead was still large. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead in three provinces decreased by 3.78 percentage points to 66.21% week - on - week. In July, some primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance, and the operating rate rebounded significantly this week. Last week, the weekly operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces was 34.62%, a 4.96 - percentage - point decrease week - on - week. Last week, the price of waste batteries increased with the rising lead price, and the profit of recycled lead improved. This week, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly downward, and the profit of recycled lead continued to recover. Some recycled lead enterprises were more willing to resume production, and the supply of recycled lead was expected to gradually increase. Recently, the internal - external price ratio fluctuated at a low level, and the lead ingot import window remained closed [4] Consumption - Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces decreased week - on - week. At the end of the year, many large enterprises closed their accounts and reduced or stopped production. The willingness of dealers to take delivery was average during the week. Battery factories actively reduced prices to destock, but the effect was not good. The operating rate of large lead - acid battery enterprises was 63%, slightly lower than the previous week. The inventory of finished batteries was 30 days, and the inventory of raw material lead ingots was 4 days. The operating rate of small and medium - sized battery factories was 60 - 65%, the inventory of finished batteries was 21 days, and the raw material inventory was 4 days. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low [5] Spot and Inventory - As of the week ending June 27, the premium of the domestic lead spot to the active month's contract decreased, and the premium was 35 yuan at the weekend. The discount of the LME lead spot narrowed slightly, and the discount was 22.14 US dollars at the end of last week. As of the week ending June 27, the weekly inventory of LME lead decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,400 tons. Although the inventory decreased significantly from a high level, it was still at an absolute high level in the past five years. The weekly inventory of SHFE lead increased by 638 tons to 51,900 tons. As of June 30, the domestic social inventory was 52,300 tons, and the inventory was gradually accumulating. Currently, the social inventory was at a moderately low level [6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - Last week, the LME lead inventory decreased significantly from a high level but remained at an absolute high level in the past five years. The spot discount narrowed slightly, and the supply - demand of overseas lead remained relatively loose. In May, the import volume of lead concentrates continued to decline month - on - month but was still higher than the same period in previous years. The monthly processing fees of domestic and foreign lead ores further declined at a low level, and the expectation of tight supply of lead concentrates intensified. In July, many primary lead enterprises resumed production after maintenance. The price of waste batteries loosened, the profit of recycled lead enterprises was recovering, and the willingness of recycled lead enterprises to resume production was high. It was expected that the short - term tight supply situation of lead would ease. This week, the rainy season ended in many places, and battery enterprises that reduced production at the end of the year resumed production. However, it was currently in the transition period between the off - season and the peak - season, and the peak - season demand had not started yet. Market dealers reported that orders were poor and the willingness to replenish inventory was low, and the spot was quoted at a discount. Overall, the supply of primary and recycled lead increased, the peak - season demand had not started yet, the supply - demand situation of lead weakened marginally, and with the loosening of waste battery costs, the pressure on high lead prices increased, and lead prices may face adjustment. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further improvement in demand later [7]

Group 1 - The mainstream ex-factory price of recycled refined lead is stable against the average price of SMM 1 lead, with some traders quoting a discount of around 50 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 16, the prices for 1 lead ingots in various markets are as follows: Shanghai Huaton at 16,850 yuan/ton, Shanghai Youse at 16,750 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Nanchu at 16,775 yuan/ton [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's lead futures main contract closed at 16,980.00 yuan/ton on June 16, with a slight increase of 0.18% [2] Group 2 - On June 16, the London Metal Exchange reported lead registered warrants at 186,525 tons and canceled warrants at 76,950 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons; total lead inventory is at 263,475 tons, also down by 1,500 tons [3] - A lead smelter in Central China is currently out of operation due to equipment failure, while high prices for recycled lead in East China are reported, with some downstream stating that prices are 100 yuan/ton higher than recycled lead [3] - According to a report from Galaxy Futures, recent increases in silver prices have improved the smelting profits for primary lead, leading to a slight increase in operational sentiment; however, recycled lead smelting plants are still facing losses, limiting operational rates [4]

铅：区间运行 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16570 | -0.30% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1986 | 0.25% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 28541 | -24390 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4836 | 97 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 55547 | 2217 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 143238 | -1723 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -20 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -19.72 | 2.45 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -40 | 45 | 进口升贴水（美 | 105 | 0 | | | | | 元 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-14 再生精铅货源有限 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-05-13，LME铅现货升水为5.95美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化0元/吨至16750元/ 吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 25元/吨至-20.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-25元/ 吨至16775元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16750元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化-50元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化25 元/吨至10300元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10200元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化25元/吨至10550元/ 吨。 期货方面：2025-05-13，沪铅主力合约开于16940元/吨，收于16970元/吨，较前一交易日变化-25元/吨，全天交易日 成交26926手，较前一交易日变化-15696手，全天交易日持仓30495手，手较前一交易日变化-2814手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17000元/吨，最低点达到 ...

【上周铅市表现及分析】上周铅价冲高回落，截至周五沪铅指数收涨 0.08%至 16944 元/吨，单边交易 总持仓 7.05 万手。 截至周五下午 15：00，伦铅 3S 较前日同期涨 12.5 至 1950.5 美元/吨，总持仓 14.85 万手。SMM1#铅锭均价 16875 元/吨，再生精铅均价 16850 元/吨，精废价差 25 元/吨，废电动车电池均 价 10400 元/吨。 上期所铅锭期货库存录得 3.8 万吨，国内社会库存录减至 4.88 万吨。内盘原生基 差-135 元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差 5 元/吨。LME 铅锭库存录得 27.79 万吨，LME 铅锭注销仓单录 得 16.13 万吨。外盘 cash-3S 合约基差-21.19 美元/吨，3-15 价差-70.3 美元/吨。剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录 得 1.194，铅锭进口盈亏为-408.61 元/吨。 铅精矿进口 TC-20 美元/干吨，铅精矿国产 TC650 元/金属 吨。原生开工率录得 66.23%，原生锭厂库 1.3 万吨。再生端，铅废库存 7.6 万吨，再生铅锭周产 3.8 万 吨，再生锭厂库 1.9 万吨。需求端，铅蓄电池开工率 ...