Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminum futures prices are experiencing fluctuations, with a slight increase observed on September 5, 2023, indicating ongoing volatility in the aluminum market [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - On September 5, 2023, LME aluminum futures opened at $2592 per ton and were reported at $2597.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.29% increase [1]. - The trading range for September 5 saw a high of $2598 per ton and a low of $2590 per ton [1]. - On September 4, 2023, LME aluminum futures closed at $2590 per ton, down by 0.92% from the previous day [2]. Group 2: Inventory and Market Data - As of September 4, 2023, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 468,750 tons, with canceled warrants at 10,850 tons, remaining unchanged [2]. - The total aluminum inventory on LME was reported at 479,600 tons, also unchanged [2]. - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported aluminum warrants at 59,583 tons, an increase of 26 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]. Group 3: Import and Profitability Metrics - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.92, indicating the profitability of imports [2]. - The import loss for aluminum was reported at -1,320.0 yuan per ton, a slight improvement from the previous day's loss of -1,357.06 yuan per ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index has declined, and the non - ferrous metals sector has strengthened. With the increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, copper prices are expected to be strong; zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities; nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and face long - term supply surplus pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9][81][183][184] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The closing prices of various non - ferrous metals are monitored, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals show different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 97.8, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%; the price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [5][6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Bullish. Trump's actions and Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the upcoming US non - farm data may further boost this expectation [9] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The spot processing fee of copper ore remains low, and the port inventory has increased [9] - **Smelting End**: Slightly bullish. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed, and the profits of those using long - term contracts have increased. The electrolytic copper output in September may decline [9] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The copper rod开工率 has declined slightly, but it is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [9] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The copper inventory shows an internal decrease and external increase trend, and the global visible inventory is relatively stable [9] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies**: Bullish on copper prices. In the short term, it is expected to be strong. The trading strategy includes unilateral long - term and internal - external positive arbitrage [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Bullish. The US GDP has been revised upwards, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The overall macro sentiment has improved, but the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm is uncertain [81] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee is stable, and the imported processing fee index has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased, but the refinery's purchasing enthusiasm is not high [81] - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The output in August is expected to be high, and the output in September may decline slightly due to some refinery overhauls [81] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal demand is in the off - season but has resilience. The export of galvanized sheets may decline [81] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and the internal and external inventory differentiation has deepened [81] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities. Unilateral long - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [81] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly bullish. The US core PCE is slightly higher than the previous value, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has increased, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector [183][184] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The Indonesian nickel ore premium is stable, and the domestic port inventory has increased. The nickel iron price has rebounded, and the MHP coefficient has increased [183][184] - **Smelting End**: Slightly bullish. The pure nickel output is high, and the stainless steel production is expected to increase [183][184] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand in the new energy sector is high [183][184] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The domestic social inventory has decreased slightly [183][184] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - **Nickel**: Bullish in the short term, with long - term supply surplus pressure. Unilateral range - bound operation and wait - and - see for arbitrage [183] - **Stainless Steel**: Expected to fluctuate widely. Unilateral wait - and - see or short - selling at high prices and no arbitrage [184]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The domestic PP market showed partial loosening with a range of 20 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures fluctuated, having limited guidance on the spot market. Most producer prices remained stable, with some slightly decreasing. Traders adjusted their quotes based on inventory and costs, and downstream demand was cautious after restocking at the beginning of the week, resulting in average morning trading [2]. - The PP trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [2]. 2. Key Data Futures - The closing price of PP2509 was 7075, with a daily decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 156,261, and the open interest decreased by 5827 [1]. - The basis of the 09 contract was -75, compared to -8 the previous day. The spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was -31, compared to -42 the previous day [1]. Spot - In North China, the spot price ranged from 6920 - 7050 yuan/ton, compared to 7000 - 7120 yuan/ton the previous day. In East China, it was 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton, compared to 7070 - 7170 yuan/ton. In South China, it was 6950 - 7130 yuan/ton, compared to 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [1].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic PP market was stable with a slight upward trend today, with some prices rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures fluctuated slightly higher, boosting the spot market. Most enterprises kept their prices stable, and the cost support for the supply remained largely unchanged. Traders' attitudes remained stable, and they mainly adjusted their prices according to their inventory and costs. Some offers were tentatively raised. However, downstream industries were operating at a low level, and their purchasing was cautious, resulting in general market trading [2]. - The PP trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2509 was 7095, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The trading volume was 162,173, and the open interest decreased by 1671 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of the 09 contract was -95 (previous day: -94), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was -25 (previous day: -31) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: In North China, the spot price ranged from 6920 - 7060 yuan/ton; in East China, it was 7000 - 7130 yuan/ton; and in South China, it was 6960 - 7150 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The domestic PP market was stable with a slight upward trend today, with some prices rising by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. PP futures had a small upward fluctuation, which had a positive impact on the spot market. Most enterprise prices were stable, and the cost support for the supply did not change much. Traders' attitudes remained stable, and they mainly adjusted their prices according to their inventory and costs. Some offers were tentatively raised. Downstream industries were operating at a low level, and their purchasing was cautious, resulting in general market trading [2]. Trend Intensity - The PP trend strength is 0, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The classification of strength levels includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: On hold [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The seasonal demand for lead during the peak season is not evident, and domestic inventories have not started to decline. However, the battery and terminal industries are in the transition phase between the off - season and peak season. Although the terminal consumption has not fully recovered, the seasonal stocking demand in the electric bicycle sector has laid the foundation for the traditional peak season in August. Therefore, it is advisable to gradually attempt to buy on dips for hedging, with the hedging purchase range between 16,000 yuan/ton and 16,300 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Spot Market**: On August 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$47.86/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 16,675 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead scrap - refined spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,200 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,100 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,450 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,775 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,133 lots, a decrease of 6,065 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 72,083 lots, an increase of 753 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,650 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,750 yuan/ton and closed at 16,755 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the afternoon close [1] - **Inventory**: On August 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the same period last week. As of August 5, the LME lead inventory was 272,975 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SMM1 lead price dropped by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, suppliers offered discounts of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price or 100 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract, with some offering a 120 - yuan/ton discount. In Hunan, smelters offered at par with the SMM1 lead price, and traders offered discounts of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead price or 100 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. In Jiangxi, suppliers offered a 30 - yuan/ton discount to the SHFE lead 2509 contract. Due to the weakening of lead prices, downstream buyers were hesitant to purchase due to fear of price drops and mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. The discount of suppliers' quotes narrowed, and the trading volume in some regions improved compared to the previous day [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a situation where regional supply is relatively tight due to maintenance in some primary lead production areas, but overall terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season demand signal is not obvious. However, with the overall positive macro - sentiment, lead prices in the non - ferrous sector may not decline further and are expected to remain in a range of 16,400 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On July 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 27.31 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,775 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at - 25.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 16,875 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,250 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,175 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,525 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,985 yuan/ton and closed at 16,900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 47,978 lots, down 24,548 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 64,534 lots, down 6,012 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,015 yuan/ton and a low of 16,890 yuan/ton. In the night session, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 16,870 yuan/ton and closed at 16,910 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price dropped 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic lead futures market was weakly volatile, and different regions had different pricing strategies. Lead prices continued to weaken, downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the spot market was generally weak [2] Inventory - On July 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 72,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of July 29, the LME lead inventory was 270,350 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous trading day [3] Strategy - The investment strategy for the lead market is neutral, and the option strategy is to sell a wide - straddle [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic PP market showed a narrow - range consolidation. The slight increase in PP futures boosted the spot market. The factory prices of producers were mostly stable, the cost support of the goods changed little, and the overall market turnover improved slightly compared to the previous day [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of PP2509 was 7160, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trading volume was 219,303, and the open interest decreased by 17,048 [1] - Spreads: The basis of the 09 contract was - 90 (previous day: - 60), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was - 6 (unchanged from the previous day) [1] - Spot Prices: In North China, it was 7000 - 7120 yuan/ton (previous day: 6980 - 7140 yuan/ton); in East China, it was 7070 - 7170 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day); in South China, it was 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton (previous day: 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton) [1] Spot News - The domestic PP market was in narrow - range consolidation. The slight rise in PP futures had a certain boost to the spot market. Producers' prices were mostly stable, and traders priced according to their inventory and cost. Downstream buyers made low - price rigid - demand purchases, and the overall market turnover improved slightly [2] Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PP market showed a weak and narrow adjustment, with some prices dropping by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The futures were mainly in a low - level oscillation, suppressing the spot market trading atmosphere. Due to the off - season of demand, downstream new orders were insufficient, and the purchasing enthusiasm was poor, resulting in overall poor trading in the market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PP Fundamental Data - **Futures Information**: The closing price of PP2509 yesterday was 7067, with a daily decline of 0.13%. The trading volume was 229,429, and the position decreased by 2340 [1]. - **Price Spread Information**: The basis of the 09 contract was - 57 (compared to - 19 the previous day), and the price spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was 0 (compared to 15 the previous day) [1]. - **Important Spot Price Information**: In the North China region, the spot price range was 7020 - 7100 yuan/ton (compared to 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton the previous day); in the East China region, it was 7010 - 7160 yuan/ton (compared to 7050 - 7180 yuan/ton the previous day); in the South China region, it was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton (compared to 7050 - 7220 yuan/ton the previous day) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market was weakly adjusted, with some prices falling. The futures' low - level oscillation dampened the spot market trading atmosphere. Traders sold goods as usual, and some quotes were slightly weaker to promote transactions. Downstream demand was weak due to the off - season [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic PP market fluctuated narrowly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The PP futures main contract underwent a corrective adjustment, suppressing the spot market sentiment. The spot supply was abundant, but downstream new orders were insufficient, and demand was flat. After the decline in the market today, the purchasing willingness of factories further weakened. Traders' quotations remained the same as yesterday, and most real - deals were subject to negotiation. Overall, inquiries were dull, and trading volume was scarce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PP Fundamental Data - Futures: The closing price of PP2509 yesterday was 7069, with a daily decline of 0.45%. The trading volume was 241,668, and the open interest decreased by 2015. The basis of the 09 contract was - 19 (previous day: - 92), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was 15 (previous day: 23) [1] - Important Spot Prices: In North China, the price range was 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton (previous day: 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton); in East China, it was 7050 - 7180 yuan/ton (previous day: 7020 - 7180 yuan/ton); in South China, it was 7050 - 7220 yuan/ton (same as the previous day) [1] 3.2 Spot News - The domestic PP market had a narrow - range fluctuation. The futures adjustment affected the spot market. There was an ample supply of spot goods, but downstream demand was weak, and factory purchasing willingness declined [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity was 0 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic PP spot market had a partial small increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton in the morning. Affected by the macro - atmosphere, the futures market rose with fluctuations, which boosted the spot market. Some producers raised factory prices, strengthening cost support. Traders slightly increased quotes, but downstream factories were reluctant to accept high - priced goods, resulting in flat overall transactions [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs PP Fundamental Data - **Futures Information**: The closing price of PP2509 yesterday was 7112, with a daily increase of 0.79%. The trading volume was 219,392, and the position changed by 123 [1]. - **Spread Information**: The basis of the 09 contract was - 92 yesterday (compared to - 58 the day before), and the spread between the 09 - 01 contracts was 23 yesterday (compared to 44 the day before) [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: In the North China region, the price range was 7050 - 7150 yuan/ton yesterday (7000 - 7100 yuan/ton the day before); in the East China region, it was 7020 - 7180 yuan/ton yesterday (7020 - 7150 yuan/ton the day before); in the South China region, it was 7050 - 7220 yuan/ton yesterday (7040 - 7200 yuan/ton the day before) [1]. Spot News - The domestic PP local market had a partial small increase of 10 - 20 yuan/ton in the morning. The futures market's upward fluctuation due to the macro - atmosphere boosted the spot market. Producers' price hikes strengthened cost support, while traders' price increases faced resistance from downstream factories' low acceptance of high prices, leading to flat transactions [2]. Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2].