热点报告—锌/铅 smingfTable_Title] 海外铅锌矿企业季度运营分析： 长单博弈将近，TC 或震荡运行 | 走势评级: | | --- | [★Ta锌bl矿e_产Su供mm应a持ry]续释放，铅矿产量略低于预期 海外样本矿企 3Q25 锌精矿产量为 135.7 万金属吨，同比增加 12.3 万金属吨（YoY+9.9%）；铅精矿产量为 30.9 万金属吨，同比下 降 0.6 万金属吨（YoY-2%）。产量增加的主要原因在于：①复产 和增产项目继续释放产量；②矿石品位和回收率上升；③少量低 基数因素。产量下降的主要原因包括：①矿石品位下降；②外部 不可抗力因素；③项目运营效率下降。2Q25 海外炼厂依然未出 现明显复产迹象，锌锭产量同环比均录减。 ★产量指引边际增加，铅锌矿 TC 承压运行 有 色 3Q25 样本企业合计产量指引边际增加，产量指引同比增速从 4% 微增至 4.1%（占海外矿产量的 31.5%）。 金 属 锌精矿 TC：12 月炼厂检修增多，年底矿贸易商或有少量存货待 售，但部分炼厂面临原料压力、以及进口矿体量压降背景不变， 年底前 TC 更可能在出现空间有限的下跌后趋于震荡，为明年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc: Bearish; Lead: Sideways [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2025, overseas zinc concentrate production increased year - on - year, while lead concentrate production decreased. The zinc smelting industry is expected to see increased supply in Q2, but the lead market has uncertainties due to production disruptions. In June, lead and zinc prices will be demand - driven. For zinc, short - term oversupply is expected, and for lead, the market is in a bearish pattern [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Event Overview - Recently, overseas leading mining companies announced their Q1 2025 production. Some adjusted their 2025 production guidance. The report statistics cover 30 overseas leading mining companies, with the sample proportion of zinc concentrate rising from 60% to about 65% and that of lead concentrate from 40% to 49% [11]. 3.2 Zinc Concentrate and Lead Concentrate Production - **Zinc Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample zinc concentrate production was 1.312 million metric tons, a 6.4% year - on - year increase and a 4% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The increase was due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, a low base in the previous year, and fewer disruptions. The decrease was due to seasonal factors and end - of - year production rushes [12]. - **Lead Concentrate**: In Q1 2025, overseas sample lead concentrate production was 300,000 metric tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease and a 9.2% quarter - on - quarter decrease. The decline was mainly due to lower ore grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [13]. 3.3 Production Changes and Factors of Individual Mining Companies - **Zinc Concentrate**: The top five companies with year - on - year production increases were Ivanhoe, Vedanta, Boliden, Group Mexico, and Sibanye - Stillwater. The top five with decreases were Teck, NEXA, Peñoles, MMG, and South32. The increase was mainly due to large - scale project restarts, new project ramp - ups, higher grades and recoveries, etc. The decrease was due to lower grades, external disruptions, and reduced operational efficiency [27][29]. - **Lead Concentrate**: Companies including Volcan, Glencore, Vedanta, Pan American Silver, and Silvercrop contributed to the year - on - year increase, while South32, Newmont, Aurelia Metals, NEXA, and MMG contributed to the decrease [27]. 3.4 Zinc Mine Costs - The 90% cash cost quantile of zinc mines in 2025 is $1,993/ton, a 9.3% year - on - year decrease. Although the LME zinc price has declined, the mining end still has sufficient profits. Different companies' cost changes vary due to factors such as mining costs, processing fees, and by - product contributions [47]. 3.5 Production Guidance - Among 13 leading mining companies, only South32 slightly lowered its annual production guidance in Q1. The total 2025 production is expected to be between 2.839 and 3.1 million metric tons, a 4.7% year - on - year increase. Some projects are expected to increase production, while others may continue to face production declines [48][50]. 3.6 TC Views and Investment Recommendations - **Zinc Concentrate TC**: There may be a slight upward space in Q2 2025, but in the second half of the year, upward movement may be restricted or even decline slightly due to factors such as domestic seasonal production increases, bearish zinc price expectations, and potential overseas production shortfalls. - **Lead Concentrate TC**: Overseas production is expected to increase slightly in Q2 2025, but domestic imports may be limited, and there is a downward expectation for the medium - term TC. - **Investment Strategy**: For zinc, in June, it is recommended to short on rallies on a medium - term basis and maintain a long - short arbitrage strategy between domestic and overseas markets. For lead, it is recommended to look for medium - term long opportunities after demand reaches a low point [52][53].