让农民种粮有钱赚、有利可图，不断提高粮食产业链供应链稳定能力，才能为粮食保供稳价夯实更加稳 固的基础 仓廪实，天下安。粮食收购和保供稳价密不可分。对于种粮农民而言，卖粮是他们整个生产链条上最后 一个环节，也是十分重要的一环。种粮积极性高不高，既要看卖粮方不方便，更要看价格好不好。只有 让农民种粮有钱赚、有利可图，才能不断提高粮食产业链供应链稳定能力，为粮食保供稳价夯实更加稳 固的基础，才有利于建立更高层次、更高质量、更有效率、更可持续的粮食安全保障体系。 经过多年探索和实践，我国已经构建起价格、补贴、保险"三位一体"的政策支持体系，合理保障农民种 粮收益，稳定种粮农民收入。其中价格主要体现在收购环节，目前我国粮食收购以市场化收购为主、政 策性收购为辅。当市场价高于最低收购价时，充分发挥市场机制作用；当市场价低于最低收购价时，启 动最低收购价预案，为市场托底。而且，最低收购价托底不封顶，为优质优价留出足够市场空间。 今年夏粮收购期间，河南、安徽、河北、江苏相继启动小麦最低收购价预案。从实践看，预案启动后小 麦价格呈现稳中有升态势。与此同时，优质专用小麦品种备受青睐，优质优价特征明显。最低收购价给 农民吃下"定心 ...

美联储理事沃勒：关税将对价格产生一次性影响。 ...

美联储洛根：经济模型显示关税对价格具有一次性影响，但模型假设的关税规模要小得多。 ...

美联储戴利：未看到持续关税对价格的影响证据。 ...

美联储理事沃勒：关税一次性会推高价格，各国央行可忽略其影响。 ...

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of June, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.84%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.62%, up by 3.10 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - Cement mill operating rate decreased to 38.14%, down by 4.91 percentage points, slightly below last year's average[11] Inventory Trends - As of the fourth week of June, rebar inventory was 185.65 million tons, up by 1.85 percentage points from the previous period, but below last year's average[28] - Port iron ore inventory decreased to 139.27 million tons, down by 0.05 percentage points, also below last year's average[28] - Cement capacity utilization ratio was 62.76%, down by 0.68 percentage points, remaining stable compared to last year's average[28] Demand Dynamics - In June, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 45.73 percentage points, exceeding last year's average[55] - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 95,374 units, reflecting an increase of 18.44% month-on-month and 3.00% year-on-year[82] - The total box office revenue for movies was 53.9 million yuan, up by 22.78% month-on-month, but still lower than last year's level[82] Trade and Pricing - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 1861.51, down by 0.43% from the previous period, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose to 1369.34, up by 2.00%[89] - The average price of cement was 355.26 yuan per ton, down by 2.05% from the previous period, below last year's average[66] - The price of rebar was 3,070.50 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous period, but still below last year's average[67]

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market shows mixed trends across different sectors. The stock index market has a positive performance, with most indices rising. The bond market is expected to be volatile, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. The commodity market, including metals, energy, and agricultural products, also has various trends influenced by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. [2][7] - It is recommended to take different trading strategies according to different market conditions, such as buying certain stock index futures on dips, and being cautious in the commodity market with a focus on specific opportunities and risks. [4][5] Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day saw most indices rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.04%, the ChiNext Index up 3.11%, etc. The trading volume increased by 188.2 billion yuan. The overseas geopolitical risk has cooled down, and domestic policies are expected to support the economy. It is recommended to buy IH or IF futures on dips and consider IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity". [2][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, most treasury bond futures had a slight decline. The economic data shows some disturbances and structural differentiation. The central bank's liquidity injection maintains a loose attitude, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term. [6][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased, and the change in the bank regulatory bill is beneficial to silver. It is recommended to buy silver on dips. [8][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price oscillated and rebounded. The overseas geopolitical situation has eased, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut suppresses the sentiment. The copper raw material market is tight, and the low inventory may support the price to rise, but the weakening domestic consumption limits the upside. The price is expected to oscillate and rise, and attention should be paid to the import loss for arbitrage. [12] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price oscillated. The cost - driving force has weakened, and the demand expectation has improved. The low inventory may push the price up, but the price increase and the off - season effect limit the upside. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [13] - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly. The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, with a high expectation of zinc ingot output. However, some factors affect the inventory and production, and the geopolitical situation may affect the zinc ore export. [15] - **Lead**: The lead price rose. The lead acid battery export growth has slowed down, and the downstream consumption is weak. But the high - concentration long - position in the LME lead July contract and the reduction of domestic inventory make the price run relatively strongly, with limited upside for Shanghai lead. [16] - **Nickel**: The nickel price rebounded slightly. The cost of downstream iron plants is under pressure, and the nickel ore price may fall. The nickel iron price is also under pressure, and the refined nickel supply - demand is in an oversupply situation, with a risk of price decline. [17] - **Tin**: The tin price fell slightly. The supply of tin ore is short - term tight, but the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to oscillate in a certain range. [18] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated slightly. The marginal variables in supply, demand, and cost are limited, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. [19] - **Alumina**: The alumina price rose slightly. The alumina production capacity is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to short on rallies. [20] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel price rose slightly. The market supply exceeds demand, and the demand is weak. The planned production cut by steel mills eases the supply - demand contradiction, but the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term. [21][23] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The steel price oscillated. The real estate demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and the market confidence is low. Attention should be paid to policy trends, demand repair, and cost support. [25][26] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was slightly down. The supply has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is in a low - volatility state with support from iron production and pressure from supply. [27][28] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price is expected to be weakly volatile due to the lack of real - estate demand boost. The soda ash supply is expected to be loose, and the price is also expected to be weakly volatile. [29] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. They are still in a downward trend, and the fundamentals point to a downward price. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely, and attention should be paid to price fluctuations caused by market sentiment. [30][31][33] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rebounded. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The price may continue to decline, and it is not recommended to buy on dips. [35][36][37] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The rubber price oscillated. The bulls expect a price increase due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire开工率 is rising, and it is recommended to take a neutral approach and focus on short - term operations. [39][40][43] - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell slightly. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the price is in a reasonable range. It is not recommended to short further. [44][45][46] - **Methanol**: The methanol price rose. The market is expected to return to the supply - demand fundamentals, with high domestic supply and potential weakening demand. It is recommended to wait and see. [47] - **Urea**: The urea price rose. The supply is high, and the demand is relatively weak. The price is expected to have no clear trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [48] - **Styrene**: The styrene price is expected to be oscillated and bearish. The cost is relatively stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. [49] - **PVC**: The PVC price rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline steadily under the background of geopolitical easing. [51][52] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is accumulating, and it is recommended to short on rallies with caution. [53] - **PTA**: The PTA price rose. The supply is expected to increase after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following PX. [54] - **Para - xylene**: The PX price fell. The supply and demand are in a dynamic balance, and the price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long following the decline. [55][56] - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The PE price rose slightly. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate. [57] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The PP price rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The price is expected to be bearish in June. [58] Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The hog price showed mixed trends. The northern region may raise prices, while the southern region has stable supply. It is recommended to go long on near - term contracts at low prices and short on long - term contracts at high prices. [60] - **Eggs**: The egg price mostly fell. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is average. The price is expected to be mostly stable with a few slight declines. It is recommended to short on rallies. [61] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices fell. The domestic soybean meal inventory is increasing, and the supply is relatively sufficient. It is recommended to go long at the low - end of the cost range and pay attention to supply pressure at the high - end. [62][63] - **Oils and Fats**: The oil and fat prices oscillated. The Brazilian biodiesel policy is beneficial, but there are still some negative factors. The price is expected to oscillate. [64][65][66] - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded. The Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the import profit window is open. The sugar price is expected to decline steadily. [67] - **Cotton**: The cotton price rose. The market is in the off - season, and the high basis affects consumption. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [68]

美联储巴尔金：目前尚未确定贸易政策的最终走向，也不清楚其将如何影响价格和就业。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of small-cap stocks in the context of the broader market, highlighting that despite recent concerns about potential pullbacks, there are indicators suggesting that small-cap stocks may still have upward potential, particularly when considering PMI and liquidity metrics [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Wind Micro-Cap Index has surged by 30.96% this year, while the traditional broad-based indices like the CSI 300 remain in negative territory [1]. - Historically, from 2009 to 2025, the annualized return of the Wind Micro-Cap Index is 28.85%, significantly outperforming the Wind All A Index at 3.71% [3]. - The strong performance of micro-cap stocks is not a recent phenomenon but has been consistent over time [4]. Group 2: Valuation Analysis - Micro-cap stocks have been driven primarily by valuation rather than earnings, with a negative EPS, and their current valuation is only slightly above the Wind All A Index, indicating no significant overvaluation at present [5][6]. - Since 2016, the valuation level of the Wind Micro-Cap Index has consistently been higher than that of the Wind All A Index, except for 2020 and 2021 [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Liquidity - High market crowding in small-cap stocks is noted, but actual pullbacks require substantial negative events to trigger them [9]. - The article introduces PMI and liquidity as novel indicators for assessing the sustainability of the small-cap style, suggesting that micro-cap stocks tend to perform better when PMI is declining and liquidity is improving [10]. - Currently, the manufacturing PMI in China is fluctuating around the threshold, and the remaining liquidity has been on an upward trend since August of the previous year, which may favor micro-cap stocks [10][11].

美联储理事库格勒：我们尚未看到关税对价格的全部影响。 ...