从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1418.22元/股，下跌0.82%；五粮液收盘价达113.27元/股，下跌1.47%； 山西汾酒收盘价达180.15元/股，下跌1.04%；泸州老窖收盘价达125.38元/股，下跌2.31%；洋河股份收 盘价达62.75元/股，下跌0.18%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）12月8日尾盘，沪指3924.08点上涨0.54%。白酒板块2226.32点收盘 下跌0.33%，其中16只白酒股下跌，泸州老窖2.31%领跌白酒股。 中信证券预测，2026年一季度或者三季度有望出现白酒板块动销、价格、预期的企稳回升，2026年二季 度有望出现上市公司报表业绩的企稳回升。目前白酒板块市盈率（TTM）约为20倍，处于中长期的底 部区间，已反映较多中长期的悲观预期。此外，2024年以来白酒头部企业股东回报稳步提升，龙头公司 分红率普遍在65%以上，不断增厚投资安全边际。 ...

Report Overview - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, analyzing their prices, supply, demand, cost, inventory, and providing后市研判 [6][8] Industrial Silicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygenated was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the 421 oxygenated was 9,200 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The futures main contract closed at 9,130 yuan/ton [6][11] Supply - Xinjiang's开工率 remained stable with a slight expected increase next week; Northwest regions had little change; Yunnan's开工率 was expected to decline in December due to higher costs; Sichuan's开工率 would further decrease in December. Overall, production increased slightly [6] Demand - Polysilicon's weekly开工率 decreased, with mixed production expectations in December; organic silicon's开工率 increased slightly, with a potential decline in December; aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 was stable, supported by good terminal demand. In October, industrial silicon exports were 45,100 tons, a 36% month - on - month and 31% year - on - year decrease [6] Cost - The cost of industrial silicon remained stable this week [6] Inventory - As of November 27, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 550,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [7] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, and high inventory is being depleted slowly. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with attention on northern开工 changes and downstream production cuts [7] Polysilicon Price - As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The futures main contract closed at 56,425 yuan/ton [8] Supply - Silicon material enterprises were firm on price stability. In November, two leading enterprises significantly reduced production, and the polysilicon output decreased significantly compared to October. The weekly开工率 decreased, and the production expectations in December were mixed, with a limited decrease compared to November [8] Demand - Terminal demand is weak, with component prices weakly stable, and silicon wafer and battery prices continuing to fall. The silicon wafer segment has reduced production, but there is no significant reduction in procurement plans. In October, polysilicon imports were 1,446.4 tons, a 12% month - on - month increase; in September, exports were 1,547.9 tons, a 28% month - on - month decrease [8] Cost - The cost of polysilicon remained stable this week [8] Inventory - As of November 28, the polysilicon factory inventory was 278,300 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons from the previous week [8][26] 后市研判 - The current supply and demand of polysilicon are weak, and inventory remains high. Supported by anti - involution policies and market expectations, it is expected to remain high and fluctuate in the short term, with attention on policy implementation [8] Downstream Markets Silicon Wafers - As of November 28, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) decreased compared to the previous week. Prices are approaching most manufacturers' cash cost lines, and significant production cuts are expected in December [30] Batteries - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of M10, G10L, G12R, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon batteries decreased compared to the previous week. The battery market is weakening, with increased price declines and weakened demand support. Some leading enterprises may lock in inventory to support prices [34] Components - As of November 28, 2025, the prices of 182 and 210 single - sided and double - sided TOPCon components remained unchanged from the previous week. The component market is weakly stable, with a weak distributed market. Leading enterprises hold firm on prices, while second - and third - tier manufacturers still sell at low prices [38] Organic Silicon - As of November 28, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 13,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The industry's开工率 increased slightly this week, and there are expectations of production cuts after the industry meeting [42] Aluminum Alloys - As of November 28, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Aluminum alloy enterprises'开工率 is basically stable, with good terminal demand [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is complex and diverse, with different trends and investment opportunities in various commodity sectors. Some sectors are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand imbalances, and policy changes. For example, gold and silver may see potential price increases, while some base metals and energy chemicals may face downward pressure or be in a state of oscillation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold Market - Market Performance: On Wednesday, precious metal prices strengthened. London gold broke through $4150 and closed at $4166 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: US envoy Witkoff will visit Moscow next week; the Russian president's press secretary said it's too early to talk about the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The number of initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly decreased to 216,000 last week. The initial value of durable goods orders in the US in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9%. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer announced a £26 billion tax - increase plan. ETFs continued to flow in, and there were changes in gold and silver inventories in different regions [2]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy gold at the lower support level. For silver, due to the re - emergence of overseas market tensions and significant price increases, short - term long positions can be considered [2]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract decreased by 0.05% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 21,455 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the LME price was $2811 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly starting rate of aluminum products remained stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: With the increase in the expectation of interest rate cuts in December and the destocking of aluminum ingots this week, the aluminum price showed a technical rebound. It is expected that the price will maintain an oscillatory adjustment [3]. Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 0.26% compared with the previous trading day, closing at 2720 yuan/ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 14 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was no long - term maintenance and production reduction, and the operating capacity fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading Strategy: Alumina is still in the stage of game between supply - demand surplus and cost support, and the market is highly wait - and - see. It is expected that the alumina price will maintain an oscillatory and weak trend before large - scale production reduction [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the price fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 9020 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.67%. The position decreased by 3390 lots to 260,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 16 million yuan [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased by 5 last week, and the starting rate in the southwest region is expected to drop by 50% in November. Social inventory increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly this week. On the demand side, the start - up of polysilicon supported the demand, and SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. Organic silicon monomer plants reached a consensus to support prices. The starting rate of aluminum alloy was relatively stable [3]. - Trading Strategy: Fundamentally, supply and demand are relatively stable. The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, supporting prices while the output decreases month - on - month. The disk is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: Yesterday, LC2605 closed at 96,340 yuan/ton (- 1000), with a closing price decrease of 1.03% [4]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) was $1185 per ton, up $65 per ton from the previous day. SMM reported the price of electric carbon at 92,800 yuan/ton and industrial carbon at 90,400 yuan/ton. The weekly output last week reached a new high of 22,130 tons, an increase of 585 tons month - on - month. SMM expects the output in November to be 92,080 tons, a decrease of 0.2% month - on - month. In November, the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate was 410,000 tons, a 4.0% increase from October and a 43.5% increase year - on - year. The production schedule of ternary materials was 85,000 tons, a 1.4% increase from October and a 39.8% increase year - on - year. It is expected to continue destocking from November to December, but the shortage will narrow in December. The sample inventory last week was 118,400 tons, a decrease of 2052 tons, and the destocking speed slowed down. The inventory was transferred to the trader link, and the high - level futures delayed the downstream price - fixing rhythm. The number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts was 27,050 lots (+ 435 lots) [4]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the inventory data after the Thursday session. The degree of destocking has a great impact on short - term price changes. If you hold long positions, it is recommended to pay close attention to the disk and set stop - loss and take - profit levels [4]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: On Wednesday, the disk rose rapidly after opening and then fluctuated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract closed at 55,895 yuan/ton, up 1165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 2.13%. The position increased by 13,966 lots to 143,000 lots, and the variety's settled funds increased by 777 million yuan. The 12 - 01 month spread rose to 3595. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7270 lots [4]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly output decreased slightly. SMM expects the output in November to be 120,000 tons. The industry inventory increased this week, and the warehouse receipts continued to decrease as the warehouse receipt cancellation period approached. On the demand side, the prices of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in November decreased slightly compared with October. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in September was 9.66GW, a 53.8% decrease year - on - year and a 31.25% decrease month - on - month. The "Document 136" mechanism electricity price policy was intensively introduced in various provinces, and it is expected that the photovoltaic installed capacity in the fourth quarter in China will face pressure [4]. - Trading Strategy: Currently, the spot transaction price is between 53,000 - 55,000 yuan. The near - month disk may gradually strengthen due to the possibility of a short squeeze. It is expected that the downstream production schedule in December will decline at an accelerated pace. When the progress of the near - month storage platform is less than expected, there are many market rumors. It is necessary to distinguish the authenticity. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The main rebar 2601 contract closed at 3085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: According to the Zhaogang data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 4.82 million tons month - on - month, and the output decreased by 50,000 tons to 442,000 tons. According to the Ganggu data, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 130,000 tons to 3.64 million tons, and the output decreased by 120,000 tons. The supply and demand of steel are weak, and the structural differentiation is still significant. The demand for building materials is in the peak season, with a slight marginal improvement in demand but still weak year - on - year, and the supply also decreased significantly year - on - year, so the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is stable, and direct and indirect exports remain high, but due to the high output, destocking is difficult. Rebar futures have a large discount and low valuation; the discount of hot - rolled coil futures is basically the same as the previous month, and the valuation is high. Steel mills continue to make losses, and the output may continue to decrease marginally and slightly [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract. The reference range for RB01 is 3050 - 3100 yuan/ton [5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main iron ore 2601 contract closed at 792.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [5]. - Fundamentals: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased by 2.71 million tons month - on - month and increased by 898,000 tons year - on - year. The arrivals increased by 24% month - on - month to 29.39 million tons and increased by 15% year - on - year. The inventory increased by 240,000 tons to 158 million tons compared with Thursday, a decrease of 3.8 million tons year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weak. According to the Steel Union data, the pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month and increased by 20,000 tons year - on - year. The third round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for the fourth round. Steel mills' profits are poor, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The supply side conforms to the seasonal pattern and is slightly higher year - on - year. The supply and demand of iron ore are weakening marginally. Iron ore maintains a forward discount structure, but the absolute level remains at a relatively low level in the same period of history, and the valuation is moderately high [5]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. Try to short the iron ore 2605 contract. The reference range for I01 is 780 - 800 yuan/ton [5]. Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1069 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton compared with the night - session closing price of the previous trading day [6]. - Fundamentals: The pig iron output decreased by 600,000 tons month - on - month to 2.363 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons year - on - year. Steel mills' profits are deteriorating, and the subsequent blast furnace output may decrease steadily. The third round of price increase has been implemented, and there is a game for subsequent price increases. The inventories at different supply - chain links are differentiated. The coking coal inventories and inventory days of steel mills and coking plants are at a moderate level in the same period of history, the pit - mouth inventory is low, and the overall inventory level is moderate. The futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained. The futures valuation is high [6]. - Trading Strategy: Exit and wait and see. The reference range for JM01 is 1050 - 1100 yuan/ton [6]. Agricultural Products Market Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans rose slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the near - term supply is shrinking, but it is still a quantitative change. In the long - term, South America maintains the expectation of large supply in a normal year, but the overall annual output decreases year - on - year. Currently, South America is in the sowing and growing stage. On the demand side, US soybean crushing is strong, while exports are still in a game, depending on China's non - commercial procurement volume in the later stage. In general, the global supply - demand situation is improving marginally but still remains loose [7]. - Trading Strategy: US soybeans are expected to be in a state of oscillation; the domestic market is also expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and the medium - term trend depends on the progress of tariff policies and the output in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are running strongly, and corn spot prices continue to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: Weather factors have postponed the supply. Currently, the national corn channel inventory is at a low level, and there is a need for inventory building. The deep - processing profit is good, the demand is strong, and the acquisition intention is relatively high. The short - term supply - demand tightness has led to a rebound in spot prices. However, the arrival of new corn in Northeast China is approaching. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the cost of corn has decreased significantly, which suppresses the long - term price expectation. Attention should be paid to weather and policy changes [7]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the short - term supply - demand mismatch, the futures price is running strongly. Attention should be paid to selling - hedging opportunities [7]. Edible Oils - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the output in the producing areas is high. MPOA estimates that the output from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.2% month - on - month. On the demand side, ITS estimates that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 19% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continues to accumulate, and the long - term inventory will decrease seasonally [7]. - Trading Strategy: Palm oil leads the decline in the edible oil market, and there are differences among varieties. Attention should be paid to the later output and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5391 yuan/ton, a 0.02% increase. The basis between the Guangxi spot price and the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract was 322 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit of imported Brazilian sugar after processing and customs clearance was 752 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the export situation of India in the later stage will affect the international trend. In the short - term, raw sugar is oscillating at a low level. In the long - term, the global production increase trend remains unchanged, and the 26/27 sugar - crushing season will continue to seek the bottom through oscillation. In China, new sugar is gradually coming onto the market. The expected increase in production in Guangxi has been significantly revised up, and the import pressure in October is prominent. The domestic pressure in the fourth quarter is relatively large, and the current decline has been realized and is coming to an end [7]. - Trading Strategy: In the futures market, it is recommended to go short at high levels; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [7]. Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, US cotton futures prices rebounded, and international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, as of October 9, the cumulative net signing of US cotton exports in the 25/26 season was 1.065 million tons, reaching 40.11% of the annual expectation, and the cumulative shipment was 318,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 29.89%. Domestically, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated upward, and the Xinjiang basis decreased month - on - month. Currently, the increase in cotton prices supports textile enterprises to raise yarn prices [8]. - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips and mainly adopt the strategy of buying in the range of 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and egg spot prices were stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, and the number of culled hens was at a high level, so the supply pressure decreased. Egg prices dropped to a low level, and traders' willingness to stock up increased, driving sales to pick up. However, the inventory in the circulation link increased. The stock - up demand has driven egg prices to be strong in the short - term, but the sustainability is expected to be limited [8]. - Trading Strategy: The stock - up demand boosts egg prices, and futures prices are expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while pig spot prices continued to decline [8]. - Fundamentals: The supply of pigs is still abundant. The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared with the previous period. However, as the Winter Solstice approaches, there may be a wave of

现在stble的价格是1.13。在有池子提前定价的情况下，那不用说了。第二期应该是科技大战了。我给项目方一个意见，既然已经不要脸了。不如直接荷兰拍吧。1.1卖ctstableUsdt，最后只让1赎回。募个10亿刀。直接先捞1亿刀。再来个公募。最后再破发。这不美滋滋？ ...

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with cement dispatch rates and grinding mill operation rates also low compared to historical averages[13] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining historical highs and PTA rates at historical lows[22] - Building demand remains weak, while automotive sales show signs of recovery, with rolling sales of passenger cars increasing year-on-year[31] Price Trends - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a downward trend[42] - International commodity prices are mixed, with oil prices declining while copper, aluminum, and gold prices are rising[39] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show an expanding year-on-year decline, with a 3% decrease in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and declines of -32% and -28% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are weakening, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities: Beijing -38%, Shanghai -23%, and Shenzhen -34%[62] Export Performance - Export growth for the period before October 19 is estimated at 2-3%, with port throughput increasing by 8.1% year-on-year[65] Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.41% as of October 17[67] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 22,018 million yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[69] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices rose significantly. The US existing - home sales index in August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, reaching a five - month high, and mortgage rate cuts boosted the housing market. Domestically, the Political Bureau meeting was held on the 29th, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd. LME copper inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, Comex inventory increased by 837 tons to 293,211 tons, and domestic copper social inventory increased by 0.82 million tons to 14.83 million tons. Due to the approaching holiday, downstream purchases were cautious. The impact of the mine accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has not been fully eliminated, and it will impact global copper supply in Q4 and 2026. The copper quarterly average price is expected to rise, and investors are advised to go long on dips. They can also focus on the price differences between Comex and LME copper and between domestic and international markets [1]. Aluminum - Alumina was oscillating weakly, with AO2601 closing at 2,878 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.52%, and open interest increasing by 11,494 lots to 304,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum was oscillating strongly, with AL2510 closing at 20,770 yuan/ton, a gain of 0.31%, and open interest decreasing by 2,320 lots to 202,000 lots. Aluminum alloy was also oscillating strongly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,982 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, short - position holders took profits and reduced positions, and the downward pressure on alumina eased. Investors are advised to operate with light positions, avoid shorting at low levels, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Due to the double - festival and typhoon - related shutdowns, the processing industry's holiday this year is slightly longer than last year. The market is pinning its hopes on the "Silver October" for consumption. During the holiday, the US will release September ISM manufacturing PMI and non - farm payroll data, and investors should be cautious about large external market fluctuations. They are advised to hold light positions during the holiday and focus on the inventory build - up of aluminum ingots during the holiday and the inventory - consumption trend after the holiday [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.12% to $15,325/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.78% to 122,000 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 96 tons to 25,057 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 325 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices were relatively stable. Stainless steel weekly inventory continued to decline, with the total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the mainstream markets at 984,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26%. The cost of ferronickel increased, strengthening cost support, but supply increased month - on - month. In the new energy sector, ternary demand in September weakened slightly month - on - month, but cobalt policies may lead to a relatively tight supply of MHP. The weekly social inventory of primary nickel in LME and domestic markets increased slightly. Due to macro factors, supply - side disruptions, and rising raw material prices, the bottom of nickel prices may rise slightly, but inventory remains a resistance to price increases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of flat - copper was 82,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 275 yuan from September 26th; the premium of flat - copper remained at - 40 yuan/ton; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 74,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the refined - scrap spread in Guangdong decreased by 270 yuan to 2,284 yuan; the prices of oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods in Shanghai decreased by 200 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 500 tons to 143,900 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 1,114 tons to 292,371 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.6 million tons to 21.6 million tons [3]. Lead - Market prices: On September 29th, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan from September 26th; the premium of 1 lead ingots in East China decreased by 10 yuan to - 140 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 600 tons to 218,825 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouse receipts decreased by 2,818 tons to 31,946 tons [3]. Aluminum - Market prices: On September 29th, the Wuxi quotation was 20,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan from September 26th; the Nanhai quotation was 20,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi spread increased by 10 yuan to - 70 yuan; the spot premium was - 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory decreased by 2,100 tons to 515,600 tons, and the SHFE total inventory decreased by 3,108 tons to 124,626 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 2.5 million tons to 59.2 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 1.4 million tons to 7.2 million tons [4]. Nickel - Market prices: On September 29th, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 425 yuan from September 26th; the price of 1 imported nickel relative to Wuxi increased by 50 yuan to 500 yuan/ton. - Inventory: LME registered + cancelled inventory increased by 1,188 tons to 231,312 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 826 tons to 29,008 tons [4]. Zinc - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 21,755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% from September 26th; the SMM 0 spot price was 21,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 825 tons to 41,950 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.7 million tons to 12.84 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: On September 29th, the main contract settlement price was 272,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.4% from September 26th; the SMM spot price was 271,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,300 yuan. - Inventory: The SHFE weekly inventory decreased by 429 tons to 6,559 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 105 tons to 2,670 tons [6]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts including spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventories, SHFE inventories, social inventories, and smelting profits for various non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin, covering data from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][16][24][30][36][42]. Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team at Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research and a senior precious metals researcher; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum and silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium and nickel research [51][52].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Short - term, take a short - side allocation for soybeans and a bearish view on corn; for the long - term, wait for the bottom for corn, and there is no clear long - term rating for soybeans [8][12] Core View - National soybean production is expected to remain above 21 million tons, with a supply - demand imbalance leading to a likely price trend of high - opening and low - closing. Corn production is likely to increase, with a high - opening and low - closing price, and no major unilateral market is expected this year [8][12] Content Summary by Category 1. Soybean - **Planting and Yield**: Influenced by policies and subsidies, the planting area of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang increased in 2025. Western regions maintained stable yields, while eastern regions had significant yield declines. Overall, the provincial yield was flat or slightly increased, and national production is expected to remain above 21 million tons [6] - **Cost and Subsidies**: The land rent cost of new - season domestic soybeans decreased, especially in the east. The comprehensive agricultural input cost was about 3,000 - 4,500 yuan/ha. Soybean subsidies were significantly higher than those for corn [7] - **Protein Content**: Due to the government's encouragement of high - oil soybean planting, the proportion of high - protein soybeans in Heilongjiang was about 40%, and the high - and low - protein differentiation was severe [7] - **Downstream Industry**: The downstream industry of domestic soybeans was not optimistic, with a supply - demand imbalance. Non - GMO soybean pressing enterprises faced challenges, and food and protein enterprises had stable processing and consumption but no growth in demand [8] - **Price Outlook**: The price of soybeans may open high and close low. When the rough grain price is below 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, farmers may hold back sales. The short - term strategy is a short - side allocation [8] 2. Corn - **Planting and Yield**: Due to factors such as weather, subsidies, and economic benefits, the corn planting area in Heilongjiang decreased year - on - year, especially in the east. Most areas had increased yields, and the overall production was slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023 [11] - **Cost and Quality**: The land rent cost was the same as that of soybeans, and the agricultural input cost in the east was basically unchanged. The quality of new - season corn was better than last year, especially in terms of high bulk density [11] - **Price and Market**: The opening price of corn was high but trended down. The short - term market was bearish, and the long - term market needed to wait for the bottom. The market was likely to be volatile with a smaller amplitude than last year [12]

Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol futures prices are experiencing a volatile consolidation phase, influenced by increased supply from new projects and declining industry profits [1][2][8] Supply - Ethylene glycol comprehensive capacity utilization rate is at 66.55%, down 0.9 percentage points week-on-week; total production is 404,600 tons, a decrease of 1.33% [2] - The production capacity of coal-based ethylene glycol is at 65.96%, down 2.47% week-on-week, while oil-integrated facilities show a slight increase in utilization [2] - Overall, supply remains relatively ample, with expectations of slight production growth as some coal chemical facilities resume operations [2][8] Inventory - As of September 15, the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China is 395,600 tons, an increase of 32,400 tons from the previous week [4] Demand - Domestic polyester industry weekly production is 1,546,800 tons, a slight increase of 0.74% week-on-week, with an average capacity utilization rate of 87.9% [5] - Demand in the weaving sector shows a slight recovery, with average order days increasing to 14.55 days, although large orders remain scarce [7] Cost Factors - OPEC+ plans to increase production, but geopolitical risks and seasonal declines in oil consumption are putting pressure on international oil prices [1] - The cost structure for ethylene glycol is expected to continue to decline due to falling prices of crude oil and coal [8] Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate a decrease in domestic ethylene glycol production with a potential increase in imports, maintaining stable overall supply [8] - The weak price trend for ethylene glycol is likely to persist, with forecasts suggesting continued downward pressure [8]

Industrial Production - China's industrial production shows marginal stabilization with daily average pig iron output and cement clinker capacity utilization rates increasing[2] - The operating rates for asphalt and most chemical products have rebounded, while only steel and construction materials show slight adjustments in output and apparent demand[2] - The textile and polyester operating rates have seasonally increased, along with the operating rates for both radial and bias tires[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 7.2% year-on-year as of September 12, with a 5.7 percentage point increase from the previous week[2] - The new home sales area in these cities has shown a 9.8% year-on-year growth since September, reversing from negative growth last month[2] - The listing price index for second-hand homes decreased by 0.59% month-on-month as of September 1[2] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to outperform last year's figures, with a 41.0% year-on-year increase in daily average revenue of 51.14 million yuan as of September 12[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with a 4.5 percentage point increase from the previous week[2] - The volume of postal express deliveries grew by 11.0% year-on-year, although this was a slight decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous week[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 10.5% year-on-year as of September 7[2] - The export container freight rate index decreased by 2.1% week-on-week, with Shanghai and Ningbo's export container rates also declining[2] - South Korea's export value increased by 3.8% year-on-year in the first ten days of September, a 2.5 percentage point increase from August[2] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index fell by 0.5%, while the Nanhua Black Materials Index and Nanhua Nonferrous Metals Index rose by 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively[2] - Rebar futures closed down by 0.5%, with spot prices also decreasing by 0.4%[2] - Coking coal futures dropped by 1.2%, and Shanxi coking coal spot prices fell by 1.4%[2]

Price and Basis - Futures prices have declined while the basis has strengthened, with steel billet prices down by 10 to 3080 yuan. The actual transaction price for rebar in East China is 3170 yuan per ton, with the October futures contract at a discount of 51 yuan to the spot price. Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3400 yuan per ton, with the main contract at a discount of 39 yuan to the spot price [1]. Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production has seen fluctuations, with overall operating rates and output not recovering significantly. After a decline in inventory, there are signs of a potential accumulation again. Iron ore inventories at ports have slightly increased, while steel production remains high, and seasonal demand for steel is declining. Expectations for a contraction in coking coal supply persist, and while iron ore demand remains high, a slight accumulation is expected, leading to a weaker cost support on a month-on-month basis. As prices weaken, steel profits are declining, with profits ranked from high to low as follows: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1]. Supply - From January to July, iron element production increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%. Month-on-month, August production rebounded compared to July, mainly due to a significant increase in daily scrap steel consumption. Current molten iron production is stable at 2.41 million tons, with daily scrap steel consumption at 55800 tons, up by 0.6% month-on-month. The total production of the five major materials increased by 64000 tons to 8.78 million tons. By product type, rebar production decreased by 58000 tons to 2.15 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 96000 tons to 3.25 million tons. Since July, production of the five major materials has exceeded demand, leading to inventory pressure due to last year's low production base in August [1][2]. Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major materials remained flat year-on-year (-0.2%), while the production decline was greater than the apparent demand (-1.3%). The increase in iron element production (+3%) is primarily directed towards non-five major materials and steel billets. Domestic demand has decreased year-on-year, while external demand has increased significantly, with direct and indirect steel exports rising. Overall steel demand has increased year-on-year, with average daily production rising and apparent demand remaining flat, while inventory has decreased year-on-year. Month-on-month, the seasonal decline was not significant, and the impact of tariffs on demand was offset by the increase in direct exports. Apparent demand for rebar has decreased, dragging down overall apparent demand. The apparent demand for the five major materials decreased by 22000 tons to 8.53 million tons, with rebar demand down by 5000 tons to 1.95 million tons, while hot-rolled coil demand increased by 6500 tons to 3.21 million tons [2]. Inventory - This week saw a significant accumulation of inventory, primarily among traders, with little increase in steel mill inventories. The inventory of the five major materials increased by 25000 tons to 14.41 million tons, with rebar inventory up by 20000 tons to 6.07 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory up by 4000 tons to 3.6144 million tons. By product type, rebar supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to significant inventory accumulation; for sheet materials, both supply and demand are weak, resulting in minimal inventory accumulation [2]. Outlook - Molten iron production remains stable, with weekly data indicating a slight increase in the production of the five major materials and a slowdown in inventory accumulation, alongside a rebound in apparent demand. Data shows signs of a bottoming out, but levels remain within the off-peak season. August demand saw a significant month-on-month decline, primarily due to poor rebar demand, affecting the spread between rebar and hot-rolled coil, which has widened to around 290. The market remains weak, with steel prices declining. There is an expectation for a rebound in demand during the peak season from September to October, and considering the situation of steel demand and coking coal supply, steel prices are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation pattern. A long position is suggested for trading, with October hot-rolled coil and rebar prices referenced at 3350 yuan and 3150 yuan, respectively [3][4].