Group 1 - The U.S. has implemented a 50% import tariff on copper products, while exempting refined copper and copper raw materials, leading to significant fluctuations in COMEX copper prices [2][3][9] - The unexpected exemption of refined copper from tariffs has resulted in a narrowing of the COMEX-LME price spread, with COMEX copper prices experiencing a notable decline [3][4] - The anticipated "siphon effect" in the U.S. market may have already been realized, and concerns about inventory returning to the U.S. are premature, suggesting that copper prices may stabilize and rise due to tight supply and improving global economic conditions [2][5][9] Group 2 - The 232 tariff is expected to benefit Chinese copper processing companies by creating higher product premiums in the U.S. market, stimulating demand for domestically produced copper products [7][9] - U.S. refined copper imports have surged, with a 130% year-on-year increase in the first five months of 2023, indicating a high dependency on imports [4][5] - The copper processing market in the U.S. shows a significant import dependency, with nearly 30% of copper semi-finished products being imported, which could lead to price premiums for domestic products if tariffs are applied [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the U.S. copper 232 tariff, which imposes a 50% import duty on copper products while exempting refined copper and raw copper materials, has led to significant fluctuations in COMEX copper prices, with the current COMEX-LME price spread nearly eliminated [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The unexpected exemption of refined copper from import duties has caused substantial volatility in copper prices [1] - The anticipated "siphon effect" from the U.S. is expected to weaken, and concerns about inventory return are premature [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise due to tight supply from mines, easing liquidity, global economic recovery, and domestic smelting sector adjustments [1] - The 232 tariff is likely to provide excess profits for Chinese copper processing companies venturing abroad [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices rose and then fell during the week. The rise was due to the positive impact of domestic anti - involution on commodities and the increased copper demand expectation from the Yajiang Hydropower Station construction. However, their short - term impact on copper should be limited. With the fading of anti - involution enthusiasm, copper prices may decline slightly in the next week. The last week of July will be a macro super - week, and copper prices may experience significant fluctuations. The weekly price range is expected to be between 79,200 - 78,200 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance - **Futures Prices**: The Shanghai copper main futures contract closed at around 79,200 yuan per ton, with a week - on - week decline of 0.56%. International copper closed at 70,360 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. LME copper 3 - month was at $9,796, up 0.02%. COMEX copper was at $580.4, up 3.99% [1][3] - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper was at 79,450 yuan per ton, up 1%. Shanghai Wumaot was at 79,535 yuan per ton, up 1.14%. Guangdong Nanchu was at 79,380 yuan per ton, up 1.07%. Yangtze Non - Ferrous was at 79,640 yuan per ton, up 1.18% [7] 2. Industry Situation - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca open - pit mine in Chile is facing tailings storage problems, reducing this year's production forecast from 230,000 - 270,000 tons to 210,000 - 230,000 tons. The expansion project has exceeded the budget by $4 billion and been delayed for several years. However, Teck expects to solve the tailings problem soon and maintain its 2026 production forecast [2] 3. Inventory Status - **Domestic Inventories**: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts decreased by 57.81% to 16,133 tons, and Shanghai copper inventory decreased by 13.17% to 73,423 tons. International copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,667 tons [13] - **Overseas Inventories**: LME copper inventory increased by 5.16% to 128,475 tons, and COMEX copper inventory increased by 2.39% to 248,635 tons [13] 4. Intermediate Production and Utilization - **Output**: In June 2025, refined copper output was 1.302 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. Copper product output was 2.214 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [16] - **Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, scrap copper rods, copper strips, copper rods, and copper tubes were 62.32%, 32.01%, 68.73%, 51.52%, and 72.25% respectively [18] 5. Import Data - In June 2025, copper concentrate imports were 2.34969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Anode copper imports were 68,548 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Cathode copper imports were 300,506 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. Scrap copper imports were 183,244 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Copper product imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [22]